Halfway Point Review

[corta765]

At 6-2 on top of the AFCE and finally vanquishing the hated Patriots the Bills are in a good place with room for improvement. Here are my observations:

 

Team MVP: Cole Beasley. If someone wants to say Diggs or Allen I am all for listening, but Beasley IMO has made the biggest plays this year at the most crucial moments. He has been even better as the safety net Allen needs and at points the life raft for the offense when it is struggling

 

Allen's Grade: B+. He has been anywhere from great to solid for the season minus the Chiefs game which I think he stunk. Most importantly his passing has improved over last year and his decision making outside of the Titans INT has been vastly improved. The first four games showed that he has the potential to dominate and I expect a few more games like that (they will need it) to come in the back half. There was always the fear that he regressed the way Bortles or Mitch did, but at this point you can help but feel relief and happiness that he has developed into a solid starting QB in the top half of the league. He still has some work to do if he wants to be a Top 5 guy like he showed early, but Bills fans can feel good about him long term.

 

Biggest Mistake: Jordan Phillips leaving/defensive depth. At the time to Beane's defense you couldn't imagine Star walking also, but Phillips ability to pressure and clog holes is missed badly. In an almost more important way he was an energy guy who seemed to help get the defense going. Many times this season the defense has felt flat or just not agressive which has been really odd considering they were not like that for the previous 3 years. Just about every Bills fan would've give the money we are paying Trent and Klein to have kept him. In general Beane seems to have swung and miss on his d line additions and LB corp addition of Klein. When the starters are out this defense is a sieve and Edmunds regression his only magnified those struggles. The defense does seem to be getting it together a bit the last three games where they are at least keeping the scores lower and at times making some plays, but this year the defense may just be average at best.

 

Biggest Challenge: Injuries. The Bills first three seasons with McBeane saw a really healthy team for the most part that didn't challenge the teams depth. Well this season the Bills have finally been caught up by the injury bug which hits every team. Just when one position finally gets healthy it feels like another is challenged. I have been vocal about the defenses struggles this year, but I have to say the injuries they have had absolutely have hurt all over this year. 

 

Game of the Year so far: Bills v Rams.  After the first two games you felt good about the offense, but man was this a shootout for the ages as both teams went on massive runs only for Allen to save the day at the end. With players you remember when they take big steps i.e Allen vs Vikings showing he could maybe play or last year DAL showing the spot light wasn't too bad. This felt like a bigger step as he singlehandedly carried the team with a passing performance Bills fans have craved since Kelly left. 

 

Weirdest Thing of the season: No fans is an easy pick, but how about the Dolphins game losing the broadcast for some time to then only be delayed by lightning right after. There have been some weird games in the past and maybe one of those two things were to happen but that game got both.

 

Biggest Letdown: Defense is easy here so what about the Chiefs Bills game being a slugfest instead of the high flying affair everyone hoped for. While I and most Bills fans wanted a win, the bigger hope was we got to see Allen and Mahomes play a 35-31 game. Instead both teams played a hyper conservative affair designed to run clock and beat the other down. If your going to lose at least lose in style.

Edited November 2, 2020 by corta765

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Great post...agree with all of it except the Jordan Phillips part. I do think we miss the energy and attitude he brought (especially in a year without the fans to pump up the defense). However, he's objectively a bad run defender (hopefully we'll see this more clearly when we play them) and almost all of his sacks were of the good coverage variety. I don't think he was worth the contract he got or the reason why the defense has regressed.

 

I think Star opting out and the lack of an acceptable like-for-like replacement on the roster at 1-Tech has really hurt our interior DL and the LBs. To a lesser extent, Corey Liuget is also probably missed more than we realize while we also miss Shaq on the edge. As you mentioned, I really think the play of Klein and Murphy have hurt us significantly this year. 

 

I'm really hoping that we can bring in Dalvin Tomlinson or Tim Settle before the deadline. Both are young guys on rookie deals and are great against the run. I think an upgrade there means a big improvement in that 1T spot and would subsequently improve the play of our linebackers as well. 

[Pitch left]

I think the Bills should really consider sitting a couple of the walking wounded the next 2 weeks plus they get the bye (assuming no COVID disruptions). It won't solve the D-line issue  but Milano and Edmunds are key guys as well as Brown. Edmunds gets killed on this board but how does a MLB play without a shoulder ? The next 2 are NFC - no major playoff tiebreak implications and they need at least 3 more wins preferably AFC

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great post...agree with all of it except the Jordan Phillips part. I do think we miss the energy and attitude he brought (especially in a year without the fans to pump up the defense). However, he's objectively a bad run defender (hopefully we'll see this more clearly when we play them) and almost all of his sacks were of the good coverage variety. I don't think he was worth the contract he got or the reason why the defense has regressed.

 

I think Star opting out and the lack of an acceptable like-for-like replacement on the roster at 1-Tech has really hurt our interior DL and the LBs. To a lesser extent, Corey Liuget is also probably missed more than we realize while we also miss Shaq on the edge. As you mentioned, I really think the play of Klein and Murphy have hurt us significantly this year. 

 

I'm really hoping that we can bring in Dalvin Tomlinson or Tim Settle before the deadline. Both are young guys on rookie deals and are great against the run. I think an upgrade there means a big improvement in that 1T spot and would subsequently improve the play of our linebackers as well. 

 

I don't disagree a lot of Phillips sacks were coverage type. I think in general like you said not having a suitable replacement for him mixed with Star out has shown big time.

 

I have faith Beane will find someone, like you said they got Liuget last year who was a FA.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

16 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Biggest Mistake: Jordan Phillips leaving/defensive depth. At the time to Beane's defense you couldn't imagine Star walking also, but Phillips ability to pressure and clog holes is missed badly. In an almost more important way he was an energy guy who seemed to help get the defense going. Many times this season the defense has felt flat or just not agressive which has been really odd considering they were not like that for the previous 3 years. Just about every Bills fan would've give the money we are paying Trent and Klein to have kept him. In general Beane seems to have swung and miss on his d line additions and LB corp addition of Klein. When the starters are out this defense is a sieve and Edmunds regression his only magnified those struggles. The defense does seem to be getting it together a bit the last three games where they are at least keeping the scores lower and at times making some plays, but this year the defense may just be average at best.

 

Couple that with Beane not knowing there's be no off season mini camp, no pre-season and a somewhat limited training camp.  The team has 4 new D lineman this year, plus H Phillips who missed most of last year.  While the team overall had few personal changes and brought back most starters, the one position group this was not the case for was the D line so think that may be part of the issue with the line play in particular since the scheme is we don't have a superstar, but we'll overwhelm you with rolling in fresh subs which for the most part worked last year.  But with as many changes this year, hasn't been working.  

 

It does make me wonder if Beane knew what he knows now back in March with the off season restrictions and Star opting out, would he have instead resigned both Phillips and Lawson basically brought the band back.

[corta765]

Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Couple that with Beane not knowing there's be no off season mini camp, no pre-season and a somewhat limited training camp.  The team has 4 new D lineman this year, plus H Phillips who missed most of last year.  While the team overall had few personal changes and brought back most starters, the one position group this was not the case for was the D line so think that may be part of the issue with the line play in particular since the scheme is we don't have a superstar, but we'll overwhelm you with rolling in fresh subs which for the most part worked last year.  But with as many changes this year, hasn't been working.  

 

It does make me wonder if Beane knew what he knows now back in March with the off season restrictions and Star opting out, would he have instead resigned both Phillips and Lawson basically brought the band back.

 

I would have to believe if he knew Star was gone he would've tried to bring the band back or sign someone else. To even the Patriots defense they had the same issue when a bunch of their guys exited, you get the cap space but who of value is just sitting available in August? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

 

I would have to believe if he knew Star was gone he would've tried to bring the band back or sign someone else. To even the Patriots defense they had the same issue when a bunch of their guys exited, you get the cap space but who of value is just sitting available in August? 

 

Add to that teams tended to all "keep their own" this August

[YattaOkasan]

Great post.  I would say Allen MVP and biggest mistake is the Klein signing are my only disagreements (but you do acknowledge Allen).  But great read.

[Da webster guy]

35 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I don't disagree a lot of Phillips sacks were coverage type. I think in general like you said not having a suitable replacement for him mixed with Star out has shown big time.

 

I have faith Beane will find someone, like you said they got Liuget last year who was a FA.

I think our interior DL is shaping up.  Zimmer, Ed, Jefferson all above average players, Harrison had a good showing after some rest, this new guy Bryant is a good run stuffer too.

 

Defense is going to come around after bye week: LB's and Dbacks get a much needed 2 week break after our two NFC games here.

[MAJBobby]

The once biggest thing that would help this offense get back on track like the first 4 weeks (until teams started going into a Cover 2 Shell) is a legit seam threat at TE like a Engram, Njoku, Ertz

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

At the time to Beane's defense you couldn't imagine Star walking also, but Phillips ability to pressure and clog holes is missed badly. In an almost more important way he was an energy guy who seemed to help get the defense going.

As has been well documented ad nauseum on other streams, Jordan Philips was playing 3T and was not good versus the run last year.  I do agree he and Shaq were the Juice guys on the field for the D Line last year.  The leadership of ZO last year and Kyle from 2 years ago is also lacking.  Star played the role of run stuffer well, better than what we have now.

 

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

Biggest Challenge: Injuries. 

Wow I haven't thought of this before but it's true. 

Offense

Bills have been missing Feliciano our OLine Mauler since day 1 of season.  Now Ford and Morse are out.  Luckily they do have some depth on Oline.  At WR, John Brown is the boost button on our passing game.  Without his ability to run the deep double move patterns, posts or go routes, teams are not worried about Bills taking the top off a D.  Now that teams are in a cover 2 shell Bills need to run well and hit the cover 2 window shot over CB between safety down the sidelines to make teams play differently.  The TEs need to get back to help us down the seam and on those window patterns like Croft grabbed vs Jets.

 

Defense

At LB, I will admit to having concerns in preseason and came away from Jets opening day win in a panic knowing that Milano and Edmunds are the key cogs in Bills Pass D and Run game.  We've struggled with them missing or being hampered in games.  At CB, the Bills should be okay with Wallace and Jackson and may get Norman back.  I wonder if Norman is going to be shut down do they bring in a bigger CB (Worley) to play various spots down the stretch (Nickel, Outside, Big Nickel)