ROCKPILE REVIEW - Just Another Patriots Game

[teef]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How many times are you going to repeat Winning is difficult.....  We get it.  

 

Until this year (and we'll see how the season plays out), the Bills seldom blow out teams, are blown out a fair bit of times, struggle to beat teams they should & have in the three years with McD, beaten 5 teams with records over .500 (and I think 3 playoff teams).  

 

I don't expect blowout wins the next two weeks.  I'd like to see wins, entertaining games & the Offense be more like weeks 1-4 (not 5-8).

 

I have little expectations from the defense against these two teams.

 

If also you want me to pick specific playcalling vs. NE, I'd say deep in our zone third quarter, 1st down lined up to run & NE knew it & a conservative call & 2 yards.  Second down in according to most blustery conditions a long pass incomplete & then a throwawy on third.  Kick, short field & NE scored. 

 

To me that first down play set the tone. 

you should be the last one calling someone out for repeating themselves.  annoying...isn't it?

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, teef said:

you should be the last one calling someone out for repeating themselves.  annoying...isn't it?

About as annoying as you finding my posts and heckling....  Add oldmanfan.....

 

You guy's have so little expectations of the Bills.  Sorry I think bigger and watch games to be excited and come away exhilerated.

 

Must be something about 1987-1995, when the Bills were a lot of fun to watch, the Offense one of the best, most dynamic in the league and a defense that had name players..... 

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

 

Must be something about 1987-1995, when the Bills were a lot of fun to watch, the Offense one of the best, most dynamic in the league and a defense that had name players..... 

That's what everyone wants, for sure, but you need to recognize how unrealistic it is to criticize your team when they aren't in that kind of run.  

 

Look at it this way:  At any given time there are maybe four teams on a really good five-year run like that.   There are 32 teams in the league, so on average you can only expect your team to be on such a five-year run every 40 years.  It's simple math.   So right now the Bills are above average in the NFL in terms of high-end success, because they've had one of those runs in the last 30 years.  The Jets, the Dolphins, the Lions, the Falcons, the Rams, the Washingtons, the Buccaneers, the Raiders, the Chargers, etc., etc. haven't had one of those runs in a much longer time.  

 

So, sure, that's the standard we all want to get to, but on average the Bills already are ahead of the game.   

 

Plus, McBeane have been very clear that that is what they're building toward, and that it would take time to "build it right."  All indications are that they're doing exactly that.   

[oldmanfan]

23 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

About as annoying as you finding my posts and heckling....  Add oldmanfan.....

 

You guy's have so little expectations of the Bills.  Sorry I think bigger and watch games to be excited and come away exhilerated.

 

Must be something about 1987-1995, when the Bills were a lot of fun to watch, the Offense one of the best, most dynamic in the league and a defense that had name players..... 

Yes.  I comment because you actively root against the Bills; you said so specifically last year.  Fans don't root against their team.

[teef]

45 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

About as annoying as you finding my posts and heckling....  Add oldmanfan.....

 

You guy's have so little expectations of the Bills.  Sorry I think bigger and watch games to be excited and come away exhilerated.

 

Must be something about 1987-1995, when the Bills were a lot of fun to watch, the Offense one of the best, most dynamic in the league and a defense that had name players..... 

just found it funny that you were bothered by someone repeating the same idea over and over.  that's all.

 

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That's what everyone wants, for sure, but you need to recognize how unrealistic it is to criticize your team when they aren't in that kind of run.  

 

Look at it this way:  At any given time there are maybe four teams on a really good five-year run like that.   There are 32 teams in the league, so on average you can only expect your team to be on such a five-year run every 40 years.  It's simple math.   So right now the Bills are above average in the NFL in terms of high-end success, because they've had one of those runs in the last 30 years.  The Jets, the Dolphins, the Lions, the Falcons, the Rams, the Washingtons, the Buccaneers, the Raiders, the Chargers, etc., etc. haven't had one of those runs in a much longer time.  

 

So, sure, that's the standard we all want to get to, but on average the Bills already are ahead of the game.   

 

Plus, McBeane have been very clear that that is what they're building toward, and that it would take time to "build it right."  All indications are that they're doing exactly that.   

Building always is a buzzword to give us time.....  I get it.  However this is year 4.  2017-19 had the same record as 2014-16 so sorry as a simpleton that means they are pretty much the same. Yes two playoffs and 2019 the Bills had a cupcake schedule.

 

I expect much more now.  Building is just a cheap excuse now.

 

 

[Figster]

22 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I think Davis is a better version of Duke.  A little better speed, equally reliable hands, etc. 

 

I was really hopeful about Duke last year, but if he were a difference maker in some way, I think he would have found himself some playing time by now. 

Listed at 6' 3". 225 Duke Williams provides a large target in the redzone and in the small sample of what we have seen Williams is physical and is not man handled off of the football easily. His style play provides a security blanket for the QB IMO. Its the kind of receiver Allen does not have in the line up IMO. In general Josh Allens throws are coming in at a higher velocity and less arc then most QB 's in the legaue. Allen needs a TE like Kelce with K C. Duke Williams is not a TE , but he plays like one.

 

I like Gabriel Davis allot...

Edited November 5, 2020 by Figster

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, teef said:

just found it funny that you were bothered by someone repeating the same idea over and over.  that's all.

 

Teef = Norm McDonald at the :50 mark...

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Building always is a buzzword to give us time.....  I get it.  However this is year 4.  2017-19 had the same record as 2014-16 so sorry as a simpleton that means they are pretty much the same. Yes two playoffs and 2019 the Bills had a cupcake schedule.

 

I expect much more now.  Building is just a cheap excuse now.

 

 

Building is not a cheap excuse when they are executing it.  The rebuild really started when they drafted Josh.  It was a gutsy and smart move.  The FO realized they had just been gifted a fluke playoff spot and it didn't deter their try for a franchise QB and rebuild.

 

Now you constantly criticize as they are in the midst of the execution of the successful building project.  It is right on schedule.  First playoffs.  Then continued progress w your QB to be identified as a franchise QB.  Take the division.  That is all happening!  

 

Please excuse a lot of the fans who are thrilled to see this come to be.

 

[Billsfan1972]

23 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Building is not a cheap excuse when they are executing it.  The rebuild really started when they drafted Josh.  It was a gutsy and smart move.  The FO realized they had just been gifted a fluke playoff spot and it didn't deter their try for a franchise QB and rebuild.

 

Now you constantly criticize as they are in the midst of the execution of the successful building project.  It is right on schedule.  First playoffs.  Then continued progress w your QB to be identified as a franchise QB.  Take the division.  That is all happening!  

 

Please excuse a lot of the fans who are thrilled to see this come to be.

 

Yep & you are the same people who were happy with McD from day one & are not wavering.  I will repeat fro Teef's sake😜 2014-16 24-24 and 2017-19 25-23...... 

 

The teardown that they explained was needed, not all of us bought.....  

 

Keep repeating that line and eventually you'll believe it.

 

None of us had a crystal ball and can say for a fact how 2017-19 would have played out under a different coaching staff, different moves, different philosophy.

 

But keep repeating "The Process, The Process, The Process"......

Edited November 5, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep & you are the same people who were happy with McD from day one & are not wavering.  I will repeat fro Teef's sake😜 2014-16 24-24 and 2017-19 25-23...... 

 

The teardown that they explained was needed not all of us bought.....

For the record, I was not happy with McD from day one.  And I am wavering into really liking the guy.  Wins over NE and taking the division are really helping his cause.  Plus the McBeane combo did right in my book with the Josh pick.

 

You don't think the teardown was needed?  Yes, they made the playoffs the first year but they correctly identified it was a fluke.  In this era you need a franchise QB and they ditched the mediocre to go all in on an attempt at a franchise QB.  That is the when the clock starts on the rebuild.

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

For the record, I was not happy with McD from day one.  And I am wavering into really liking the guy.  Wins over NE and taking the division are really helping his cause.  Plus the McBeane combo did right in my book with the Josh pick.

 

You don't think the teardown was needed?  Yes, they made the playoffs the first year but they correctly identified it was a fluke.  In this era you need a franchise QB and they ditched the mediocre to go all in on an attempt at a franchise QB.  That is the when the clock starts on the rebuild.

And look at my thread after week 4, when I said I turning the corner on McD......  Yep it was primarily due to the Offense actually performing to what I thought they were capable of.  The last 4 weeks I've thought instead of asserting themselves the Offense played passive (take what they give you mentality).  

 

I hope that changes this week.  

[NoHuddleKelly12]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep & you are the same people who were happy with McD from day one & are not wavering.  I will repeat fro Teef's sake😜 2014-16 24-24 and 2017-19 25-23...... 

 

The teardown that they explained was needed, not all of us bought.....  

 

Keep repeating that line and eventually you'll believe it.

 

None of us had a crystal ball and can say for a fact how 2017-19 would have played out under a different coaching staff, different moves, different philosophy.

 

But keep repeating "The Process, The Process, The Process"......

Your comparison of the records is skewed imho, bc 2014-2016 was the best we could do “all-in” with that staff, whereas 2017-current includes the 6-10 tear down year and our trajectory since last year has been well over .500 of course—context is everything! 

[Bob in STL]

On 11/4/2020 at 3:20 PM, Shaw66 said:

My personal opinion is that it's impossible for fans to make any meaningful judgment about the quality of the play calling, except for an occasional play here or there.

 

What was it that you thought was abysmal about the playcalling?   And if it was abysmal, how did the Bills score 24?

I too find it hard to judge and blame play calling. To a fan, if the play works it’s a good call. Some plays don’t work because of poor execution and possibly lesser talent running the play. 
 

I think our play calling has been good on both sides of the ball. The staff and players are on a good trajectory, the single biggest need is to add a difference maker player to the front 7. 

[Billsfan1972]

7 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

I too find it hard to judge and blame play calling. To a fan, if the play works it’s a good call. Some plays don’t work because of poor execution and possibly lesser talent running the play. 
 

I think our play calling has been good on both sides of the ball. The staff and players are on a good trajectory, the single biggest need is to add a difference maker player to the front 7. 

I'll agree a good play works, a bad play doesn't and that is pretty much all we see.  

 

I pointed out a series above that put the Bills in a hole & NE immediately scored & tied the game.  

 

Squeaking by NE sorry says to me there were not enough good palys called on offense & the defense allowed too many yards & plays to NE.

 

Overall I'd say the Defense's playcalling has been suspect, especially on 3rd down.  A perfect example was the 3rd & 10 where Burkhead (?) got a first down on a run. 

 

The Bills are 30th (interesting is Tennessee is the worst & Carolina allowed NO to make like 14 of 16 vs. them) and the Bills have played NYJ twice....

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/view/defense/stat/downs/table/miscellaneous/sort/thirdDownConvPct/dir/asc

 

[teef]

16 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep & you are the same people who were happy with McD from day one & are not wavering.  I will repeat fro Teef's sake😜 2014-16 24-24 and 2017-19 25-23...... 

 

The teardown that they explained was needed, not all of us bought.....  

 

Keep repeating that line and eventually you'll believe it.

 

None of us had a crystal ball and can say for a fact how 2017-19 would have played out under a different coaching staff, different moves, different philosophy.

 

But keep repeating "The Process, The Process, The Process"......

Thank you for everything you do!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Plus, McBeane have been very clear that that is what they're building toward, and that it would take time to "build it right."  All indications are that they're doing exactly that.   

Unless the Bills are on the path that the 2011-2015 Bengals were on.

 

A solid team that made the Playoffs each year for 4/5 years straight, and got bounced in the first round.

 

Shaw the difference here between you, Teef and 1972 is that you believe McDermott and Beane when they talk. They say build from in the inside out, you believe them, they say they have a 5 year plan, it’s we need to wait five years, they say it takes culture over talent, you’re in there. You believe we’re on this predestined stairway to greatness and they can see before the average fan can.

 

Like they have seen the future and know we will be contenders indefinitely once this build is complete (not sure how we know this). 

 

I think 1972 is just saying, instead of accepting that our build isn’t complete, can the Bills step outside of the expectation that we aren’t ready to beat the Seahawks and just win a game against a really good team? 
 

I think we’re somewhere in the middle. You can beat a lot of bad teams by just not turning the ball over and making a few timely plays. But I still don’t have confidence that once the Playoffs start that this team’s first game won’t be a tight down to the wire game where the offense just doesn’t seem to be a groove.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

9 hours ago, Bob in STL said:

I too find it hard to judge and blame play calling. To a fan, if the play works it’s a good call. Some plays don’t work because of poor execution and possibly lesser talent running the play. 
 

I think our play calling has been good on both sides of the ball. The staff and players are on a good trajectory, the single biggest need is to add a difference maker player to the front 7. 

I don’t agree with this.

 

As an average fan you can tell if a coaching staff is protecting a quarterback by calling for  short dump off passes, trying to run draw plays on 3rd down. 

 

You can see a stretch run play where the team loses yards every time, yet they keep trying to do it.

 

You saw it last week when the Chargers tried to sit on their lead against Denver, or when the Seahawks took the ball out of Wilson’s hands and gave it to Carlos Hyde for a critical 3rd-2 conversion attempt. 
 

Now the passing concepts that are illustrated each week are fascinating.

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Unless the Bills are on the path that the 2011-2015 Bengals were on.

 

A solid team that made the Playoffs each year for 4/5 years straight, and got bounced in the first round.

 

Shaw the difference here between you, Teef and 1972 is that you believe McDermott and Beane when they talk. They say build from in the inside out, you believe them, they say they have a 5 year plan, it’s we need to wait five years, they say it takes culture over talent, you’re in there. You believe we’re on this predestined stairway to greatness and they can see before the average fan can.

 

Like they have seen the future and know we will be contenders indefinitely once this build is complete (not sure how we know this). 

 

I think 1972 is just saying, instead of accepting that our build isn’t complete, can the Bills step outside of the expectation that we aren’t ready to beat the Seahawks and just win a game against a really good team? 
 

I think we’re somewhere in the middle. You can beat a lot of bad teams by just not turning the ball over and making a few timely plays. But I still don’t have confidence that once the Playoffs start that this team’s first game won’t be a tight down to the wire game where the offense just doesn’t seem to be a groove.  

I do have a lot of confidence that what they are doing will work.  I wouldn't say I believe.

 

What I do is watch the games and listen to what they say.  Then I make my own judgment about whether what they say sounds correct, plausible, etc.  What I've discovered over the time they've been in Buffalo is that what they say is consistent, and what they say will happen actually is happening.   That is, I've built up a fair amount confidence that they know what they're doing.  But, believe, I' don't thing so. 

 

I've said repeatedly that I like their system and I understand what they're trying to do, but that the "process" requires excellence in all aspects, including excellence in things like play calling, Xs and Os,, things that require specialized forms of intelligence that either you have at a high level or you don't.   I think the biggest potential flaw in the system could be that McD simply doesn't have the ability to think about the intricacies of the game like Belichick does, like Reid does.  I'm not saying he doesn't; I'm just saying God (or whatever) may not have blessed him with all the grey matter he needs, in the same way some kid may be out there with all the brain power of a Tom Brady, but if he never gets taller than 5' 7", he isn't playing QB in the NFL.  

 

So I wouldn't say I believe the Bills will get to the top and stay there.  What I believe is that they're running a system that, all other things being equal, is more likely than most other approaches to get you there, but ultimately whether you get there depends on the people in the various jobs.  One of those jobs is QB, and Beane figured out how to get the right person.  Head coach is the job I worry about.   Ten years from now, are people going to be saying McD is a Hall of Famer?   I don't know. 

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don’t agree with this.

 

As an average fan you can tell if a coaching staff is protecting a quarterback by calling for  short dump off passes, trying to run draw plays on 3rd down. 

 

You can see a stretch run play where the team loses yards every time, yet they keep trying to do it.

 

You saw it last week when the Chargers tried to sit on their lead against Denver, or when the Seahawks took the ball out of Wilson’s hands and gave it to Carlos Hyde for a critical 3rd-2 conversion attempt. 
 

Now the passing concepts that are illustrated each week are fascinating.

Well, maybe I'm just splitting hairs, but there's a difference between philosophy, game planning, and play calling.  The Chargers trying to sit on a lead is a matter of philosophy and game planning.  They have an idea of how they want to play the game in certain situations.   

 

Play calling is different.  On fourth and one, do you have the right play?   On third and seven?   Is misdirection the right approach in certain situations?   Did a series of plays keep the defense off balance, challenging the defense to move laterally on one play, to withstand power on the next, to cover deep, etc.  

 

I think that philosophy and game planning is something that is transparent enough that fans can have meaningful discussions about it.  I think to analyze play calling, you need a meaningful understanding of what the offensive philosophy is, what the defense is doing, how the flow of the game feels on the field.  That is, I think play calling is an artform that is understandable only by insiders.  

 

It's similar to, but much more complicated than, a catcher calling pitches.  The catcher wants to be thinking along with the hitter and getting the hitter off-balance, in a sense, to surprise him with pitches.  A knowledgeable fan, paying attention, can critique a catcher's pitch calling, because the variables are limited:  inside, outside, high, low, fastball or off-speed, off the plate.  It's not simple, but an attentive and thoughtful fan can have an opinion based on fact and the options.  

 

The variables for an OC calling plays are much, much more complicated.  Thinking along with the defense is much more complicated, because the defense has a lot of variable that it is controlling and that the OC can't predict.  The offensive playbook offers many more options than a pitcher's array of pitches.  

 

To understand and critique play calling in the NFL requires an understanding of the game in general and of the offensive and defensive playbooks of the teams in question that I think is simply beyond all but the most knowledgeable fans.  I'm not one of those fans, and I think there are very few, if any, fans posting here with that kind of understanding.  So I don't get into discussions of play calling, because I don't think it's a subject that typical fans can discuss meaningfully.