Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said:

From an objective standpoint, I agree with you.  From a Bills fan view point....it took us 22 years to find a decent replacement to Jimbo!!!!!!  Give me a break1  It is not that easy to find a new franchise quarterback.

 

It could have been worse.  The Jests are still looking to find a real successor to Joe Namath whose last played for them in 1976 ... 44 years ago.

 

2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but does Beane have to decide this March whether or not to pick up Josh’s 5th year? 
 

If he doesn’t they only have two choices.  Extend him or take their chances on year 4 where he can walk at the completion. 

 

 

Why wouldn't the Bills pick up Allen's 5th year option by this March?  Jackson, Allen, and Mayfield have all earned having their fifth years picked up.  At this point, I'm not sure that any of them deserve contract extensions before their fourth seasons, though.  Darnold is the guy in limbo because the Jests team around him suck so bad -- and I'd including the coaching as well -- that who knows if his lack of improvement from his rookie season until now is his failure to adapt to the pro game or poor coaching or the lack of talent around him.  

 

Allen would have been in the same place as Darnold and the Bills would have been in the same quandry as the Jests, if they hadn't sacked virtually the entire offensive coaching staff in 2019 and brought in better coaches and then gone out and put some decent offensive talent around him.  Even elite QBs need protection and talent to show their best.  Consider Brady in NE in 2019 and Brady in Tampa in 2020.

 

1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I disagree. Not having a franchise QB murders a franchise. We have lived through that for over 20 years. I DO agree that it is important capitalize on the rookie contract of a good, young QB, but typically the elite franchises find a way to build around expensive QB’s for 10+ years.  It is a very rare QB who can win a Super Bowl in their rookie contract. I’d rather we take our chances paying (over-paying?) Josh Allen and building around him, rather than suffer though another 20 plus seasons looking for the next guy.  

 

I don't think that Jackson, Allen or Mayfield have shown enough yet to warrant elite money, but I think that Allen would definitely be worth a $35-40 million contract if he continues this season as he's done so far.   I think he's definitely good enough to take the Bills to a Super Bowl win, which makes him a keeper even if he's not Patrick Mahomes.   That's okay.    The chances of drafting another franchise QB immediately after losing Allen are probably slim to none.  

 

A better strategy might be to grab a QB that you really like in the first round even if you already have a franchise QB on the team.   Green Bay did this in 2005 when they drafted Aaron Rodgers despite having Brett Favre.  In 2017, Andy Reid traded his 2018 first round pick to the Bills in order to move up to draft Patrick Mahomes despite having Alex Smith.  

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

I think what it shows is a couple of things.  Offenses are making transitions much easier from college to pro for most QB's coming in, and scouts have a severe lack of ability to project how college QBs will turn out in the NFL these days, maybe now more than ever.

 

Burrow was very hard to know what to make out of...he obliterated the SEC last year but was just OK the year before.  So some weren't sure if the player they saw last year was the player they were going to get in the NFL.  I think he has answered that question pretty emphatically already.  Herbert was touted as the #1 pick in some circles before Burrow's phenomenal season wrestled that away from him, but he had a great season last year as well with 32 TDs and 6 INTs following a very good junior year of 29 TDs and 8 INTs. He also completed almost 67% of his passes.

 

I just think scouts are still trying to adjust to how college QBs fit the new NFL, and to be honest most scouts were not very good with QB's before this in the old NFL.  I mean how the hell does Tom Brady get picked in the 6th round otherwise?

 

The difference now between all these QBs that put up stats is how they do when the game is on the line and how their play translates into wins.  Players like Prescott have stats all day but it has never translated into wins really.  Same for Cousins for most of his career. The key is going to be able to figure out what players are going to win you games and not just put up stats now because it looks like every QB will be able to do that.

 

 

I think that too many people are jumping in to crown Burrow and Herbert successes based on about half of season in the NFL.  Both have been impressive, but they're still rookies, and they may never improve significantly from where they are now.    Jameis Winston and  Marcus Mariota come to mind.  Of course it's better to have a good/spectacular rookie season than not, but it's not a guarantee of future success.  Baker Mayfield looked to be the class of the 2018 QB draft class, setting the rookie record for passing TDs.  Darnold was considered the next best.  Lamar was an outlier because his success was due to his running.  Josh Allen was easily the worst passer of the lot.   Jackson and Allen have easily become the leaders in their QB classes, Mayfield hasn't improved significantly, and Darnold is struggling, which might be a function of the team he's on.  (I'm not including Josh Rosen because he was lousy as a rookie and hasn't shown much since).

 

Tom Brady dropped to the 6th round because he wasn't the starter at Michigan.  Athletic Department politics dictated that Drew Henson, a star baseball player and QB, be the starter over Brady, who actually outplayed him when he got in to play.   He probably would have gone much higher if he'd gotten a fair chance.  Nowadays, a player in Brady's situation would simply transfer to another school.

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by SoTier

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

14 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Just because you are the NEXT QB in line for as contract does NOT MEAN you set the new bar. You have to be the BEST, not just NEXT.  

 

If only it were that way.  

[TheElectricCompany]

Hot takes are fun, I'll play.

 

The league is a strange place, and I like to think that somebody will try this eventually. I'm not talking about a Dak or Cousins situation, where they play the franchise tag game for a year or two. I'm talking about letting him walk, or trade him by year 4 or 5. Quick asterisk...there are arguably 6-8 QBs in the league that are truly irreplaceable. Those guys aren't part of this conversation, and I think we all know who belongs on that list. 

 

Beyond that, there are some good to great players that are not yet in their twilight years, but will still demand a big contract. Carr, Cousins and Stafford come to mind. If you draft a starting QB, and his ceiling appears to be at that level, why wouldn't you consider an upgrade? If you want to sneak into wild card slots occasionally, they'll get you there, but if you want championships, you have to aim higher. 

 

If you pull it off correctly, you could have an extremely deep roster for 5-7 years. In the event your QB is a true irreplaceable superstar, then move some players and give him a blank check. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

 

The sample size of what you are talking about is too small to determine definitively yet that QB's are going to be easily replaceable.

 

It's gotten easier to play QB but it's not the first time we've seen crazy spikes in league QB performance.

 

The year after Goodell basically legislated vicious hitting out of the pocket and the secondary........I think it was 2010.........7 QB's immediately threw for passing yardage amounts that were top 25 seasons all-time.

 

It looked like this would really help all those frightened QB's that couldn't play up to their arm talent.......and that everyone would be able to have a good QB soon...........but as defenses adapted the changes really only served to extend the careers of the QB's on teams in the "have" category.    The disparity got worse.

 

So I think it needs to play out for a while yet before we can say that QB's are overpaid relative to their impact. 

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Agreed obviously with your first statement. But disagree on your 2nd point.  How does Kirk Cousins making double what Aaron Donald makes sense??? It’s an insane structure.  Especially in a nfl where it is has never been easier to play qb and ho hum 1st rounder can be on pace to throw for 5,000 yards as a rookie.  
 

the Vikings were one of the most rounded teams in the nfl and nearly went to the SB with Case Keemun. Now, they are in contention for the 1st overall pick.  There are legit 5 without a doubt carry a team qbs right now.  

 

It doesn't make sense to you and me.  It makes sense to NFL GMs.  There's this notion - partially accurate - that you can't win without a franchise QB.  When the top QBs aren't available as free agents, you look at a guy like Cousin and you wonder, "Can I build an offense around him?  Can he become a franchise QB?"  And you want to believe the answer is "yes" because your options are limited.  So it's a kind of wishful-thinking.  One driven by an overwhelming sense of urgency.  

 

If owners were in charge of roster and salary cap decisions, I think the QB pay structure would be different.  The bidding wars would be less intense.  The owners would take a longer view and say, "Cousins isn't the guy.  Rather than shell out millions of my hard earned money for a guy who's not the answer, I'm going to wait until something better turns up."  

 

But if you're a GM with maybe 3 years to build your team before the fans and - more importantly - the owner lose their patience, I think you're sorely tempted to pay whatever it takes to get a QB that might - just might - save your job.  

 

Incidentally, if I were a GM and had job security, I'd be drafting QBs every year until I found one because I do believe FA QBs are, in fact, over-priced.  

[JoPoy88]

Thread should be titled “don’t pay QBs...except in the case of W, X, Y or Z” really. Pretty big hedging going on for such a spicy take of a title.

[TroutDog]

I haven’t read the entire thread (apologies) but this sounds like Moneyball. I am partially on board.

 

$40m per year is stupid. It’s stupid for the organization and stupid for the player as they are both saddling themselves with a high probability of failure due to cap reasons (in almost every situation). 
 

There has to be give from both parties if they both are, in fact, in search of a championship. 

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, unbillievable said:

That's the NBA model.

Individuals have a player CAP within the team CAP.

The players no longer pursue the money and are drawn to bigger markets.

You can't pay 22 guys 25 mil.  The problem with that model in the NBA is that you only have 5 starters.  There is a big difference between the NBA and NFL.  There are 53 players on an NFL roster not 25 like the NBA. The NFL also has a hard cap which means there is no Luxury tax, you absolutely can not exceed the cap.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Allen has 4+ league MVP awards coming to match his 4+ Straight Super Bowl MVP awards

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

And the teams and the game would be more well rounded, but we would still have moron owners and their hand picked staffs (the Jets for instance) that would still have a tire fire of a team and organization. 
 

I guess it would In reality the league would not change very much after all.

Yup.  Thank God we got one of the good organizations now.😁

[blacklabel]

Someone said "Don't overpay anyone" and while that's a good rule of thumb, the Bills have regularly had to overpay free agents to sign here for years now. That happens when your team and city are viewed as "undesirable" by a lot of players. Now that they've been winning, that perception has begun to change and I've seen more than a few times that Buffalo is starting to be seen as a solid option for free agents. So they got that going for them, which is nice. But yeah, we've definitely seen them dole out some hefty deals for players that don't quite match that salary but sometimes you gotta bite the bullet to get what you want. 

[LB48]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Besides Wilson and Rodgers I would argue there is no QB doing more to carry his team right now than Allen

I agree.  With a Tyrod style offense we could be 2-5 at best!

[unbillievable]

25 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

You can't pay 22 guys 25 mil.  The problem with that model in the NBA is that you only have 5 starters.  There is a big difference between the NBA and NFL.  There are 53 players on an NFL roster not 25 like the NBA. The NFL also has a hard cap which means there is no Luxury tax, you absolutely can not exceed the cap.

Doesn't matter, the problem will be the same.

The bigger markets will dominate, having good QB's, especially with the rules skewed towards passing. The smaller markets will become farm teams, like the NBA.

 

[formerlyofCtown]

8 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

Doesn't matter, the problem will be the same.

The bigger markets will dominate, having good QB's, especially with the rules skewed towards passing. The smaller markets will become farm teams, like the NBA.

 

The hard cap is the difference.  25*22=550 million.

You're wrong there guy. In basketball and baseball they can go over the cap and pay a luxury tax.  In football you can't go 1 penny over.  The franchise tag gains more power as does the Transition Tag.  I can see you also don't keep up with things as the trend in the NFL has been moving away from the large market teams.  Most players don't like the big city especially the big city media and fan base.  Places like Buffalo, Greenbay and KC are becoming more desirable locations.  Would you want to play for Adam Gase or Sean McDermott?

Edited October 30, 2020 by formerlyofCtown

[unbillievable]

39 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

The hard cap is the difference.  25*22=550 million.

You're wrong there guy. In basketball and baseball they can go over the cap and pay a luxury tax.  In football you can't go 1 penny over.  The franchise tag gains more power as does the Transition Tag.  I can see you also don't keep up with things as the trend in the NFL has been moving away from the large market teams.  Most players don't like the big city especially the big city media and fan base.  Places like Buffalo, Greenbay and KC are becoming more desirable locations.  Would you want to play for Adam Gase or Sean McDermott?

Doesn't matter, the problem will be the same.

Since the teams will offer the same money, the player will choose the better market.

Occasionally, you can entice a QB with surrounding talent (Tampa Bay), but the overwhelming advantage will be in favor of big market cities.

 

None of the other stuff you've said matters. Not the luxury tax. or the hard cap. Neither the franchise tag or transition tag changes anything. The player perspective is that it's best for them to go to a bigger market.

Edited October 30, 2020 by unbillievable

[NoSaint]

We are probably about the best candidate possible for this conversation. Say josh has a pretty good but not exceptional season. 
 

if you could flip him to a team in the teens with a decent roster but aging qb... and package 2 firsts for the 2-3 qb off the board and keep 35m for cap space... equal parts tempting and terrifying.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

Doesn't matter, the problem will be the same.

Since the teams will offer the same money, the player will choose the better market.

Occasionally, you can entice a QB with surrounding talent (Tampa Bay), but the overwhelming advantage will be in favor of big market cities.

 

None of the other stuff you've said matters. Not the luxury tax. or the hard cap. Neither the franchise tag or transition tag changes anything. The player perspective is that it's best for them to go to a bigger market.

Apparently you didn't read the last part.  Players prefer a larger Market is fan myth.  Tre and Dawkins just took less money from a small market team.  How do the Jets and Giants rosters look.  This illusion that people prefer to live in big cities is funny.  Most people don't care for it but are stuck where they are.  There is nothing great about a big city unless you are homeless or party.

[unbillievable]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

Apparently you didn't read the last part.  Players prefer a larger Market is fan myth.  Tre and Dawkins just took less money from a small market team.  How do the Jets and Giants rosters look.  This illusion that people prefer to live in big cities is funny.  Most people don't care for it but are stuck where they are.  There is nothing great about a big city unless you are homeless or party.

I read it all.  Just because you said it, doesn't make it true.

What makes a city "big"?.... because people want to live there more than "small" cities.

 

The current system lets smaller market teams compete by overpaying for talent. Sometimes you can throw "culture" or "coaching" as an extra benefit. You can also exploit the "home team" discount;  people's preference to avoid change...

 

...but remember, Eli Manning forced the issue, while Buffalo had to bribe Mario Williams with 100million.

 

[formerlyofCtown]

12 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

I read it all.  Just because you said it, doesn't make it true.

What makes a city "big"?.... because people want to live there more than "small" cities.

 

The current system lets smaller market teams compete by overpaying for talent. Sometimes you can throw "culture" or "coaching" as an extra benefit. You can also exploit the "home team" discount;  people's preference to avoid change...

 

...but remember, Eli Manning forced the issue, while Buffalo had to bribe Mario Williams with 100million.

 

Eli Manning didn't want to play for San Diego specifically.  It had nothing to do with market.  At least what I'm saying is true.  What you just claimed is absolutely false.

There was an article last off-season but I couldn't find it.  Just a bunch of COVID crap comes up.

 

We had to pay Mario Williams because we sucked.  We had to overpay players because the entire organizations sucked and had a bad reputation.  That was the reality of that not because Buffalo is a small market.  John Brown and Cole Beasley chose Buffalo over larger markets.  In Beasley's case he took less money to come to Buffalo.

It's about winning not about going to the club.  This regime showed those kind of players the door.

 

[formerlyofCtown]

32 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

I read it all.  Just because you said it, doesn't make it true.

What makes a city "big"?.... because people want to live there more than "small" cities.

 

The current system lets smaller market teams compete by overpaying for talent. Sometimes you can throw "culture" or "coaching" as an extra benefit. You can also exploit the "home team" discount;  people's preference to avoid change...

 

...but remember, Eli Manning forced the issue, while Buffalo had to bribe Mario Williams with 100million.

 

One more thing.  Did you know that Peyton manning chose to stay in school an additional year because he didn't want to get drafted by the Jets.  That's the biggest market there is.