Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs

[HardyBoy]

11 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

 

Exactly.  Those are the guys you give the big $ to because they all (you can make a case against Eli) make the players around them better.  To use the baseball metric, those guys have a very high WAR.

 

That defines the current Dak Prescott conundrum, and is the critical evaluation that must take place on Josh Allen over the next year and a half.  I'm optimistic Josh can reach the top level of the QB position, but if the Bills conclude otherwise they have to find the courage to let him walk.

 

I have no basis of football understanding at an actual Xs and Os level to know if what I'm saying makes sense, but I feel it's more elite qbs can play at an elite level in various different systems and high level schemes and that allows coaches to design offensive gameplans that take advantage of the actual players on the field, which could be even different on different sides of the field, or by formation/player grouping.

 

You can make players better by being good, but they'll be even better if they can do what they do best, and with a fixed system qb it is limiting because it's hard to find players that are all good at the same thing.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Elite QBs get 40-50 now.

I've always wanted a player maximum installed in the cap.  The QBs would cry but they are outnumbered union wise.  $25 mil cap wouldn't bother the rest of the players at all.  It means they would see more $$$.

And the teams and the game would be more well rounded, but we would still have moron owners and their hand picked staffs (the Jets for instance) that would still have a tire fire of a team and organization. 
 

I guess it would In reality the league would not change very much after all.

[dollars 2 donuts]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

 

I could go into all the reasons why I have always loved The Nuch, but in doing so it would be a disservice to the man's greatest traits...he speaks plainly, to the point and is spot on.  

 

Thank you for being here, man.

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

 

I mean it kind of just goes by how the game is played.  RBs used to be vital to teams because they focused on running the ball more than passing.  Not the case anymore and you could almost argue that an RB's greatest ability is blitz pickup and pass receiving ability more than running ability now. Unless you have a truly top end back, most are relatively interchangeable in regards to running the ball. But I mean where does having the best RB get you? How many SB's do Elliott, Barkley and Henry have combined?  None.  

 

WRs and QBs are hugely important because they determine how much success you will have in the passing game....same with LT as he protects the QB.  

 

On defense, the players who defend the pass are most valuable...edge rushers and CBs.

 

Used to be run defenders and middle linebackers. The game changes and when it changes positions become more or less important and that dictates their earning potential.

Edited October 29, 2020 by matter2003

[BarleyNY]

Elite QBs are worth the money they get paid.  As noted by others, the problem is overpaying mediocre or below QBs.  Teams have to have the guts to part ways with mediocre QBs and that includes ownership.  You have to chance giving up on a Tannehill once in awhile so you don’t pay a Wentz.  Teams who pay an elite QB also need to have the guts to part ways with other players who are more replaceable (sorry RBs) even if they’re fan favorites.  Find your QB and draft well.  Rarely, or never, spend big bucks in FA.  And for the love of god, never trade big picks for a player that is due or is demanding a new contract unless you’ve negotiated it prior to completing the trade.  (Don’t be a Bill O’Brian.)

[Kwai San]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Allen is the only qb taken in the top 10 by the bills since kelly...they never seriously invested in trying to get an elite qb, and the goal always seemed like it was to overpay for Fitzpatrick, which is exactly the point op is making.

 

Agree to disagree a little bit here.  Biscuit was saying that any ole QB outa college can come in and make a splash - at least thats what I took away from his OP.  Yes - Bills FINALLY took a QB in the top 10 but realistically the pickings were slim by the time they were picking in those 20 years as they always were in the 11-19 range and anything worth anything wasn't there and maddeningly when they did have a decent number to play with they went CB, DB and crazily RB and WR.  They hit on two of those but they didn't retain them.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

In a more perfect world, soldiers, sailors, teachers, first responders, etc. would get paid more than football players because they contribute more to America.  But in a capitalistic sports economy, as it exists right now, QBs are paid exactly what they should get paid.  Because QB value is whatever the market will bear.

 

I think things would be different if GMs signed 20 year contracts.  In that scenario, GMs would be more deliberate and patient.  But in actuality a GM is typically given about three years to produce a winner.  So he can't wait long to find a QB in the draft.  And if he has no quick luck there, he's going to spend every penny he has on a FA QB because the clock ticks fast in the Win Now League.  And without a viable QB, a GM is screwed.  

Agreed obviously with your first statement. But disagree on your 2nd point.  How does Kirk Cousins making double what Aaron Donald makes sense??? It’s an insane structure.  Especially in a nfl where it is has never been easier to play qb and ho hum 1st rounder can be on pace to throw for 5,000 yards as a rookie.  
 

the Vikings were one of the most rounded teams in the nfl and nearly went to the SB with Case Keemun. Now, they are in contention for the 1st overall pick.  There are legit 5 without a doubt carry a team qbs right now.  

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

I agree with you that teams overpay QBs, but the problem is...to replace them...you generally need a top ten pick and some luck that you didn't draft a dud. Otherwise, you're taking a player that has a lot of 'maybes'. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by jeremy2020

[C.Biscuit97]

19 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

It's called the Market; I'm sure you understand that.  If you want QB salaries to go down, then the collective will have to devalue the position just as the RB Market has steadily decreased while the WR market has steadily increased.  So if you don't want to pay the market value for QBs, then you will get bottom of the barrel talent that fits within your market value range you are willing to pay.  

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

2 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

I agree with you that teams overpay QBs, but the problem is...to replace them...you generally need a top ten pick and some luck that you didn't draft a dud. Otherwise, you're taking a player that has a lot of 'maybes'. 

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

The perfect example of your theory is Carson Wentz.  He is garbage.  But for whatever reason he was super hyped coming out of N Dakota State.  So the Eagles have mortgaged their future around a brittle ginger who is erratic at best.  And downright lousy most of the time.

 

So much happier having Josh Allen.  He is a unique talent.  May not ever be a Brady Brees or Rodgers.  But he has game.  An amazing arm.  And tremendous competitive desire to do whatever it takes to win every week.

Carson Wentz is definitely not garbage and is actually playing pretty well now after a rough start. What is garbage is his offensive line, which is completely decimated, and his receiving corps, which is also decimated. He literally carries that offense and is worth what they're paying him. They're struggling this year for a variety of reasons, but he's the least of their problems. They are also likely to win that division. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Albany,n.y.]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

Isn't that on Ralph's gravestone?  

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

I have two names for you that sort of obviates your argument: Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson. Don't be surprised if they're the two SB teams (they're my picks). The reason Pittsburgh is always at least pretty good is Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh also drafts well. The reason Seattle is always good is because of Wilson. I'd say the same for Rogers, Brady, Brees, Mahomes, Goff (a lot better than the haters think), Luck when he was playing, DeShaun Watson, and for a long time Philip Rivers. The jury is out on Wentz, but I think he's a very good qb playing for a team completely walloped by injuries right now.  Detroit doesn't win nearly enough, but they'd be a perennial 2-14 team without Stafford, who makes them competitive. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Albany,n.y.]

20 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Agree to disagree a little bit here.  Biscuit was saying that any ole QB outa college can come in and make a splash - at least thats what I took away from his OP.  Yes - Bills FINALLY took a QB in the top 10 but realistically the pickings were slim by the time they were picking in those 20 years as they always were in the 11-19 range and anything worth anything wasn't there and maddeningly when they did have a decent number to play with they went CB, DB and crazily RB and WR.  They hit on two of those but they didn't retain them.

7-9 is the worst record a team can have.  They don't make the playoffs and they pick in the middle of the draft.  Next worse is 6-10.  You may make it into the top 10 in some years, but you're not getting near the top.  

 

In this century the Bills have had four 7-9 seasons including 3 straight from 2006-2008 and six 6-10 seasons including 3 straight from 2011-2013.  That's half the century at 6 or 7 wins.  No man's land in the standings & the draft.  

[John from Riverside]

Just pick one up in Wallmart in the Blue Light special bin.....that has seemed to work so well for us.

 

I realize that the Bills are going through a period of success with McBeane........but it is really easy to me to remember the over a decade of futility we have had prior to that.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

25 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

 

Ah yes, the Buffalo Bills approach over the past 20+ years!

 

[dave mcbride]

34 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah of course I get the market.  It’s why Dak has gotten his payday because he knows what Goff and Wentz got.  And clearly Dak is showing how valuable he is by being injured.  
 

but paying Dak a ton of money is going to kill that team long term, as it does most every other team.  I think if you also should take a shot on a qb every 3 years because you gain leverage.  
 

and the because of the rules, lots of guys are going to put up big numbers.  

Fair point but then look at Lamar Jackson.  Hell, Gardner Minshew was a 7th rounder who might be a playoff qb on a talented team.  

Dak was also on pace to completely shatter the passing yardage record this season. Injuries are part of life in the NFL, and you can't make decisions based on your fear of them. He is a very good player who is why they were competitive in every game. He can't help that McCarthy hired a checked-out DC who is proving to be flat out awful. His presence -- or lack thereof -- will determine whether they are competitive or not going forward because he's the best player on the team. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

So...dump a guy after his rookie contract if he's only good for a 9-10 win a year QB.....and hope somewhere in the second half of the 1st round, pick up another QB qho is better than that guy (unless he's not either) and just keep cycling through rookie contracts until you strike gold?  

 

Goff's Rams are 5-2.  Tannehill's Titans are 5-1.  I bet those owners aren't thinking they've murdered their teams with those deals.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Being that the entire league is a monopoly, they certainly can price fix at any position if they feel inclined to... buy the owners have money coming out the wahzoo, so there is little to no motivation to do so. 

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I here you, but on the other hand, I have to admit, I love it when players take advantage of billionaires and take tens of millions of dollars from them and milk them for years,  this happens a lot, and it just shows how much money the owners have that it doesn’t seem to even bother them....

 

Huh?

 

There's a salary cap and an 89% cash spend mandate.  The league average of all teams has to be 95% of that year's cap value--so it doesn't matter how many "billions" an owner has--he has to spend the money regardless of which players get what salary.

 

This isn't NBA or MLB where guys get every dollar guaranteed whether they are still playing or not.  Nor is there the option. to spend well over the cap and toss in for a "luxury tax", if they want to.

[Augie]

3 hours ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

 

Just because you are the NEXT QB in line for as contract does NOT MEAN you set the new bar. You have to be the BEST, not just NEXT.  

[machine gun kelly]

28 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Isn't that on Ralph's gravestone?  

No just coaches and GM’s amd don’t disagree with the great one.  I love Mr. Wilson as he brought the team here, kept the team here when he could have moved it multiple times, and in the hey day when we had no cap, but the Kelly years, given the market, he paid for players.  His problem was he was never willing to pay for top coaches until the end, and no one wanted to come here.  Chuck Knox is one of the winningest coaches in the history of the NFL, but like Polian, he was very strong willed and Ralph chose his $ guy Littman over Polian, as well as got rid of Knox who took this team from losing to the Fins 20 times in the 70’s, to winning against them and the division and making the playoffs twice.  He blew it.

 

I will always love mr. Wilson for what he did do, vs. what he didn’t, but he was willing at times to pay for players.  He just was meddling and didn’t understand what the Roonies knew to hire people and stay out of it.  It’s why Pittsburgh had only a few coaches and a bajillion playoff appearances since 1970.