Hot Take - Don’t pay Qbs

[Mango]

I think people get worked up by total cash. But by percent of the cap not much has changed. Kelly made about $3.1M per year on a $35M cap. Just under 10%. Outside of 5-ish QB’s that’s right around where the bulk of QB’s are. 
 

Given the rule changes it is not surprising that passers have creeped up a few points, but it’s not out of the ordinary. 

[NewEra]

43 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Fortunately I have a feeling Allen will take a more team friendly contract.  Don't get me wrong he'll get paid but he will leave a larger slice of the pie for other players.  Part of Brady's greatness was that he was never the highest paid QB in the league.  I could be wrong but I don't think he was for a single year.

I hope you’re right!  Under 40 mill would be a blessing

[BillsfaninSB]

Correct me if I’m wrong but does Beane have to decide this March whether or not to pick up Josh’s 5th year? 
 

If he doesn’t they only have two choices.  Extend him or take their chances on year 4 where he can walk at the completion. 

[Jerome007]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

So...to summarize:

 

Don't overpay mediocre quarterbacks (like Tannehill and Goff, except that Tannehill and Goff are playing awesome football and their teams are doing well). Pay elite quarterbacks (like Brady, Rodgers, and Mahomes, obviously). 

 

So it's as simple as just having a top-10 pick and hitting on one of the two good QBs each year in the draft, and unless the guy is elite move on after the rookie deal (with that valuable top-10 or top-5 or top-2 pick that every team has when they need a QB).

I don't know if you're sarcastic or not, but yes ha ha. The trap is "good/very good but not great/elite" QBs. They're tough to fire or let go, but they are not good enough for the money of their non-rookie contracts. But what is more impactful than a great QB? Nothing.

 JJ watt and Darnold are beasts but 10 QBs at least are more important than them for the success of their team. It's just the way it is.

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

 

In my opinion what really murders franchises is huge 2nd QB contacts to marginal type players that can't elevate the team on their own and need good to great players around them to consistently win.   When you give the big 2nd contract to someone like a Tannerhill in Miami (though he's not looking so marginal now in Tenn) you can't sign enough good players to make the team good.  Didn't we give both Fitz and T Edwards second contracts?  But there's been plenty of these huge contracts given for marginal players.  On the other hand doubt Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning's contract don't hurt the franchise as they can carry the team on their own for the most part.

[SirAndrew]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

 

This is quite possibly the worst take ever. 

The #1 priority for every single NFL franchise is to draft a great QB and keep him until he retires.

I just looked at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners and 17 of them had a good veteran Franchise QB at the helm.

 

Bad take.

Agree, you have to overpay for an average QB, that’s just the nature of the beast. It’s like how most people overpay for an average home in an average suburb. They do so to maintain a lifestyle in a decent neighborhood. QB play is similar. If you have an average QB, you must pay the price to maintain average because the other options could be far worse. This forces teams to overpay. If we want to question the system that’s fine, but it’s not reasonable to say it’s easy to replace an average QB. Herbert might pass for 5K yards, but those numbers are just part of the story. Veteran QB’s are invaluable and many highly sought rookie QB’s become busts. The idea of just letting a QB go because they cost too much isn’t an option imo. All of this is economically driven. QB’s are the most important part of the modern NFL, and prices of the most important necessities become inflated. That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth paying the QB. Dislike the price tag all you must, but you really have no option. 

Edited October 29, 2020 by SirAndrew

[buffaloboyinATL]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

  these contracts murder franchises.  

I disagree. Not having a franchise QB murders a franchise. We have lived through that for over 20 years. I DO agree that it is important capitalize on the rookie contract of a good, young QB, but typically the elite franchises find a way to build around expensive QB’s for 10+ years.  It is a very rare QB who can win a Super Bowl in their rookie contract. I’d rather we take our chances paying (over-paying?) Josh Allen and building around him, rather than suffer though another 20 plus seasons looking for the next guy.  

[Da webster guy]

2 hours ago, KD in CA said:

Easy to give a big second contract to a QB once he's established himself in the top group, like Mahomes.

 

The trap is when you have a good, not great QB like Goff or Wentz.  That's when you kill your roster because those guys don't elevate the team.

 

Exactly.

 

It's like you have to commit to them in that 3rd/4th season, but these $30M+ deals are basically saying your defense is probably gonna suck for the next 5 years.   Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit etc.

 

Not as bad as huge guaranteed money deals to running backs like Zeke, Gurley, LeVeon though.  Thats just stupidity.

 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Don't overpay anyone

The problem is the NFLPA, agents and the league expects UFAs to command top dollar if they're in the discussion of next great one see Tre White, Ramsey, Humphries as examples at CB. Each of them ended up the top paid at their position when they're contract ran out because that's how the system "works". TBH I think QBs earn way too much and it be awesome to get Josh at a lower rate than top dollar but he's likely going to get it if he keeps putting up numbers like he is this year and we keep on winning. 

[HardyBoy]

42 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

I am not saying they were correct but the Bills absolutely tried to get a "real" quarterback in here.  Why they moved up for JP Losman and why they landed Drew Bledsoe.

 

Bledsoe was a stop gap short term, and I'll definitely give you Losman, that was a good QB draft and they just missed out on big ben, and JP very well could have been ruined by the org more than being a bust.

 

Who were the available qbs the year they drafted Mike Williams?

 

Edit: ooff, bad qb draft. David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey in the first round...amazing talent at other positions scattered in that first round though.

Edited October 29, 2020 by HardyBoy

[Weatherman]

1 hour ago, PetermansRedemption said:

Make this guy GM 

We’ve all ready had plenty of these GMs, but they were more don’t pay than don’t over pay anyone.

[The Jokeman]

16 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

In my opinion what really murders franchises is huge 2nd QB contacts to marginal type players that can't elevate the team on their own and need good to great players around them to consistently win.   When you give the big 2nd contract to someone like a Tannerhill in Miami (though he's not looking so marginal now in Tenn) you can't sign enough good players to make the team good.  Didn't we give both Fitz and T Edwards second contracts?  But there's been plenty of these huge contracts given for marginal players.  On the other hand doubt Brady, Brees, Rodgers or Manning's contract don't hurt the franchise as they can carry the team on their own for the most part.

Trent only played played 3.5 years here so no he never saw a second contract with us. Fitz got a second contract yes. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Trent only played played 3.5 years here so no he never saw a second contract with us. Fitz got a second contract yes. 

 

That's what I thought, but also seemed to recall paying him more then his performance tanked, guess I was just thinking of Fitz.

[Mat68]

Top 5 or 10 you must.  15 probably?  Outdide of that you have a point.  Allen has played like a top 5 qb this year.  He finishes the same way you pay him.  

[unbillievable]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No.  I said installed in the Cap.  In other words, everything else remains the same and the player maximum is added to it.  In other words next year your QB can only make 25 mil and you still can't pay out more than the 175 mil cap.

You can't have 6 players making 25 mil because you would only have 25 mil to spend on the ton of other players you need for a football team.  This is Football where you probably can't play a single game without at least 23 guys probably 24.

That's the NBA model.

Individuals have a player CAP within the team CAP.

The players no longer pursue the money and are drawn to bigger markets.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, HardyBoy said:

 

Don't think it's a bad take.

 

Isn't the list of super bowl winning qbs the last 20 years basically Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Manning, Big Ben, Wilson and Mahomes? I know there's a random Foles mixed in every now and then, but the vast majority of super bowls the last 20 years have been won by very few QBs, and they're the elite of elite.

 

I think the point is the goal is to get one of those elite qbs (which I am hoping Allen is), if you don't think you did, don't compound the mistake and give out an elite level contract.

 

Edit: I left off Brees. Other than that the only three other winning qbs since 2000 have been Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco and Nick Foles.

 

Exactly.  Those are the guys you give the big $ to because they all (you can make a case against Eli) make the players around them better.  To use the baseball metric, those guys have a very high WAR.

 

That defines the current Dak Prescott conundrum, and is the critical evaluation that must take place on Josh Allen over the next year and a half.  I'm optimistic Josh can reach the top level of the QB position, but if the Bills conclude otherwise they have to find the courage to let him walk.

[PetermansRedemption]

20 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

We’ve all ready had plenty of these GMs, but they were more don’t pay than don’t over pay anyone.

Can’t overpay someone if you don’t pay anyone 🤔 

Edited October 29, 2020 by PetermansRedemption

[Ray Finkel]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Yup.  Similar to where the cowboys are with dak. He’s better than wentz and goff but is he worth spending 35+ mill a year?  I’d pass and focus my attention on acquiring an elite QB.  Acquiring one is easier said than done, but wallowing around 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 every year is the worst place a team can be imo.  I’d rather move on from a non elite QB if the want 25 mill+,
 

Not for a guy who didn’t get you to the playoffs last year.

[unbillievable]

How many teams have regretted letting a QB go to free agency? (this millennium)

Drew Brees to Saints

Kurt Warner to Cardinals

Ryan Tannehil?

 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You shouldn’t overpay Qbs.  Obviously there are exceptions to the rule but look at the league now.  Lamar won a MVP in his 2nd season.  So did Mahomes. Joe Burrow, a good but not generational prospect, is on pass for 4,600 yards as a rookie!  Justin Herbert, who no one thought was close to an elite prospect, is at pace that if he started 16 games, he would throw for 5,000 yards.

 

fact is Qbs are completely overpaid and qb’s 2nd contracts kill your ability to build a roster.  It has never been easier to pay qb in the NFL and college guys translate easier than ever.  Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule (Seattle kinda sucks minus Wilson but he carries the team; Mahomes; Brady; Rodgers) but too many replaceable guys get paid too much.  Also if teams stopped handing out monster to Deals to average talents like Goff and Tannehill (during Miami), it would bring the salaries down.  
 

And for the record, I’m totally down with every player getting every cent they can.  But these contracts murder franchises.  

 

I think what it shows is a couple of things.  Offenses are making transitions much easier from college to pro for most QB's coming in, and scouts have a severe lack of ability to project how college QBs will turn out in the NFL these days, maybe now more than ever.

 

Burrow was very hard to know what to make out of...he obliterated the SEC last year but was just OK the year before.  So some weren't sure if the player they saw last year was the player they were going to get in the NFL.  I think he has answered that question pretty emphatically already.  Herbert was touted as the #1 pick in some circles before Burrow's phenomenal season wrestled that away from him, but he had a great season last year as well with 32 TDs and 6 INTs following a very good junior year of 29 TDs and 8 INTs. He also completed almost 67% of his passes.

 

I just think scouts are still trying to adjust to how college QBs fit the new NFL, and to be honest most scouts were not very good with QB's before this in the old NFL.  I mean how the hell does Tom Brady get picked in the 6th round otherwise?

 

The difference now between all these QBs that put up stats is how they do when the game is on the line and how their play translates into wins.  Players like Prescott have stats all day but it has never translated into wins really.  Same for Cousins for most of his career. The key is going to be able to figure out what players are going to win you games and not just put up stats now because it looks like every QB will be able to do that.  

 

For my money there are few QBs I would rather have right now than Allen...the dude is a baller and he makes things happen.  Maybe Wilson and Mahomes...Rodgers and Roethlesberger are too old for this conversation.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by matter2003