What is the appropriate compensation for TH?

[Peter]

Given that TD has said that he will not take anything less than TH's value, what do you think that is?

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

It depends on what you mean.

 

If you are looking for an expression of one's view of his absolute value as a player stated in terms of tomorrow's draft its somewhat of a potluck guess because of the large number of potential pro bowl quality RBs available tomorrow (at least 3) and how they compare with Hwnry as an RB who in reality once qualified for the Pro Bowl (sliding in due to injury).

 

Based on the uncertainty inherent in the draft I think you reasonably have easily rank Hwnry as meriting a 1st round pick.

 

If however, you are talking about the real world and not some staticfantasy leaguw judgment, there are a ton of variables in play here some of which cut against and some of which raise his value.

 

Figure a start at 1st round levels and go from there:

 

Downers-

 

1. Has had injury issues during each of the last three seasons (he is a youngster but this lowers his value a lot).

2. Went into an apparent funk last year after WM took his job.

3. If he throws a hissy fit if the Bills do not trade him he may be available if he is cut (unlikely because he has zero leverage to force a cut if he wants to earn a bif FA contract).

4. Not too bright as his poor management decisions forced him to delay his FA status for a year in exchange for upfront cnump change from the Bills.

 

Uppers-

 

1. Two high quality rushing years of his four in the league.

2. Tough guy who showed he could play through pain his second year.

3. Under contract cheaply for a year so he is very cap effective for the production he has produced.

4. Not too bright so his new owners can potentially take advantage of him.

 

There were several other whines mentioned about him but they seem fairly inconsequential to the unbiased observer:

 

1. Suffered drastic fumble problems his second year- however these numbers greatly improved his third year so this can be watched but not drive decisions.

2. Dropped some critical passes kast year- but so does eveyone in this league and he did rack up some very productive receiving numbers his second year when KG employed him as a pass threat in a potent offense so this issue is a red herring.

3. Blitz pick-up issues- like all rookies this was an issue when he first came up but not noted as a problem at all his second two years even blocking for the less than fleet Bledsoe. The issue was raised on TSW this year, but similar problems were also there for the rooki=w WM initially and even the blocking EB Shelton who blew a critical blitz pick-up in one of the early games but no one who complains about Henry mentions these other episodes if it is really blitz pick-up rather than raggin on Henry that motivates them. An imminently ignorable issue.

 

One needs to factor in not only all of these and probably other issues to come up with a reasonable expression for him, but other factors will cause the market to vary widely in the hours before the draft and during the first round.

 

1. If two of the three top RBs go in the first five picks then conceivably the henry value gets elevated to even a #1. On the other hand if two of these players survive the first ten picks then Henry's value goes in the toilet.

2. The publicmarket for Henry is more hot than I expected with at least 3 teams on record wanting him (Iggles, AZ, TB) and Miami having a clear need for an RB but few draft choices to part with. The heavy market really increases his pre-draft value.

 

TD has proven to be a cagey and proven negotiator. I think that the market is such that he might have even squezzed out a #1 for Henry, but my guess is that he pulls the trigger and gets at least the #2 he has targeted for Henry, but what may be happening here is that he really sees great value for him in the AZ deal (assuming the docs say Shelton is good to go) and he is looking to some unexpected blockbuster (like a trade with Miaimi for McMichael who also has one year to go on his contract and will be difficult for the Fins to resigin cap wise) and that is why he is sitting on the AZ deal til the last minute.

 

My guess is that the TD estimate of a 2nd is pretty astute but getting a vet like a healthy Shelton or a McMichael has far more benefit for the Bills than the crapshoot of a mere draft choice (even a 2006 1st).

[bdelma]

I would have said at least a second, but I really starting to lean toward a 3rd. Friggin dude was hurt last year.

[millbank]

I think a number two pick, but when its all said and done Bills will trade for Shedon exchange picks moving up to 44 in second. At present it makes no sense for Bills to make this trade known early as it would give others teams time to arrange moving past them. In those terms the later they make deal the better. Draft looks like Baas will be gone, Spencer may be available. (hope)