The Maddening Mystery of McDermott's Disappearing Defense

[BringBackFlutie]

39 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just don’t understand why they don’t sign Snacks Harrison, who has been a top run defender for years. He’s in another team’s practice squad right now, meaning the Bills could at least attempt to poach him.

 

Maybe they tried and he said, "no."

[Nihilarian]

On 10/21/2020 at 1:07 PM, Nextmanup said:

I'm not sure why this board is not putting more emphasis on the magical regression of Josh Allen and the disappearing offense.

 

We won four games in a  row because Allen had morphed into a substantially better QB than we have ever seen from him before.

The D has been middling to lousy throughout this season.

 

The change the last 2 games is the offense, not the defense.

 

If are going to get back to winning a lot of games, we need to fix the offense, and fast.

I agree.

 

The first four games Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders. It looked like Josh had a lot of time in the pocket to pick his targets and the Buffalo passing game carried the team to wins. Allen even needed to make comebacks due to the bad defense.

 

Not only is the defense bad, but so is the run game. #25th in rush attempts, #27th in rush yards, #20th in TDs, #21st in YPC avg. 

 

The Titans and Chiefs brought a lot of heat on Allen and hit him hard after almost every pass play. With virtually no run game to help the offense and with Allen under pressure the offense couldn't get on track. If Allen is hurt you would think that the Bills OC would do something to help him out, like run the ball more. 

 

Fix the run game, fix the pass blocking!...and fix the defense!

 

The Bills might get the next win over the 0-6 NY Jets to go 5-1. Then they face NE, Seattle, Arizona and could end up 5-4. 

 

 

[billsfan89]

42 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just don’t understand why they don’t sign Snacks Harrison, who has been a top run defender for years. He’s in another team’s practice squad right now, meaning the Bills could at least attempt to poach him.

 

Snacks has turned down the Fins and Bucs to stay on Seattle. I think if the Bills want a player off the street there are other options like Timmy Jernigan who isn't a "big" guy but plays like one at the one tech. I would rather the team sign Jernigan and look for other options on the trade market. 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Snacks has turned down the Fins and Bucs to stay on Seattle. I think if the Bills want a player off the street there are other options like Timmy Jernigan who isn't a "big" guy but plays like one at the one tech. I would rather the team sign Jernigan and look for other options on the trade market. 

Didn’t know that about Harrison. Thanks.

[Dopey]

On 10/21/2020 at 1:53 PM, Nextmanup said:

OK, I totally disagree with you.  Allen has dropped off a cliff in his last 2 games and we lost both games because of it.

 

Have a look at his stats.

 

 

Stats are for Fantasy Football. Just trust your eyes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/21/2020 at 12:54 PM, Logic said:

Allen absolutely DID regress the past two weeks, and he himself stated as much after both games.

 

Where and when did Allen state he "regressed"?

 

He said he needed to play better for this team

 

Not the same thing

[ogham26]

its pretty simple weve lost players to retirement/free agency/opt out and replaced them with players that simply arent good 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where and when did Allen state he "regressed"?

 

He said he needed to play better for this team

 

Not the same thing

You're right. He did not specifically say "I regressed".

I guess I meant that he used language like "this team can't afford for me to play poorly" and "we've gotta be better and that starts with me". That does not necessarily equal "regressed",  but it's not the type of language he was using after the first four games. Could just be generic post-loss player-speak, though.

[zow2]

I didn't read the entire 5 pages, but to me, McDermott's defense is too finesse.  All they seem to do is chase guys and tackle.  There's no physicality, no edge.  Milano being out obviously has an impact, because he's good and he's physical.  The guy we had on the D-line last year, Phillips...he was pretty nasty, even Shaq at times.

This year is mostly chase and tackle guys.  I was impressed at how physical the Chiefs were.  They hit hard between the lines, and sometimes go overboard, but they are nasty.

[DuckyBoys]

5 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I agree.

 

The first four games Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders. It looked like Josh had a lot of time in the pocket to pick his targets and the Buffalo passing game carried the team to wins. Allen even needed to make comebacks due to the bad defense.

 

Not only is the defense bad, but so is the run game. #25th in rush attempts, #27th in rush yards, #20th in TDs, #21st in YPC avg. 

 

The Titans and Chiefs brought a lot of heat on Allen and hit him hard after almost every pass play. With virtually no run game to help the offense and with Allen under pressure the offense couldn't get on track. If Allen is hurt you would think that the Bills OC would do something to help him out, like run the ball more. 

 

Fix the run game, fix the pass blocking!...and fix the defense!

 

The Bills might get the next win over the 0-6 NY Jets to go 5-1. Then they face NE, Seattle, Arizona and could end up 5-4. 

 

 

we should be able to outscore the Jets and Pats who both also have offensive issues.  Seattle's defense is awful but they wont sit back and die a slow death so we might see big play from Josh or mistakes brought on by aggressive defense  Arizona's offense is on on or off but I doubt we get aggressive enough to hinder Murray.  I wish McDermott would recognize what hes working with and change his philosophy some on defense  Better to take a shot and get burnt than let teams have 15 play drives while they wear you out

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 10/21/2020 at 11:57 AM, Logic said:

I wrote an article about the Bills' defensive woes. I will paste it in full here, though it looks better at the link with pictures and such.

And before anyone says it: Yes, it's longer than a typical TBD post. It's an article, it's supposed to be. 

http://buffalofambase.com/2020/10/21/maddening-mystery-mcdermotts-disappearing-defense/

 

 

The Maddening Mystery of McDermott’s Disappearing Defense

Gather ’round, kiddies. In the spirit of Halloween, I’d like to tell you a spooky and mysterious tale. A tale of overmatched linemen, missed tackles, and vanishing big plays. A tale of a once proud and fearsome platoon, reduced suddenly and shockingly to a sniveling and pitiable state of helplessness. I must warn you that this tale is not for the faint of heart. Indeed, it is sure to send chills up the spine of every member of Bills Mafia and leave them shaking in their Zubaz. It is a tale which must be told, though, for it may decide the very fate of the Bills’ season.

To understand where we are now, though, we must first look back to from where we came.

The date is December 15, 2019. Under the bright lights of Heinz Field, the Buffalo Bills have just notched their tenth win of the season, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 on Sunday Night Football. The victory was due mainly to the exploits of their relentless and swarming defense. That night, Buffalo tallied four sacks, nine tackles-for-loss, and four interceptions. Up-and-coming star cornerback Tre’Davious White picked off two Duck Hodges passes. While the Bills themselves only scored ten points, it didn’t matter. Their defense won the day. The victory clinched a playoff spot for a Bills team that had been carried by its dominant defense all year. At season’s end, the Bills defense ranked second in points allowed and third in yards allowed.

The lofty finish seemed to be a continuation of the upward trajectory on which the Bills defense had found itself for three seasons under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, one which had seen the Bills finish as the best pass defense in football the year before. Led by young, exciting defenders like Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Ed Oliver, as well as savvy vets like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, the Bills defense appeared to be embarking on a sustained period of greatness. Appearances, though, can be deceiving.

October 19, 2020. For the second time in two weeks, the Bills have just faced a top AFC opponent in front of a national audience. For the second time in two weeks, their defense has looked feeble, toothless, helpless, and has directly contributed to a humiliating defeat. This time, the loss came at the hands of a Chiefs team which rushed for an eye-popping 245 yards and whose quarterback finished with a 128.4 quarterback rating.

 

Play after play, the Bills’ defensive linemen were blown off the ball, driven back five yards, and buried in the turf. The next line of defense — the linebackers — faired no better. At times, the physical domination by Kansas City’s offense was reminiscent of the Urbania Cowboys bulldozing the Little Giants — only this time there would be no “Annexation of Puerto Rico” play to save the day. Instead, with one last chance to stop the Chiefs offense and give the Bills a chance to score a winning touchdown, the Bills defense folded like a cheap suit.

 

On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. The failure of the Buffalo defenders on the play summed up the night perfectly: all three levels of the defense suffered at least one instance of poor execution, culminating in the Chief’s ninth 3rd down conversion of the night and resulting, ultimately, in another Bills loss.

 

It was a night filled with sights that Bills fans simply weren’t used to seeing prior to this season, but which have now somehow become commonplace: poor execution, poor discipline, stupid mistakes, blown coverages, missed tackles, bad fundamentals, and — crucially, this time– a complete inability to get off the field on third downs. All defenses have bad nights now and again, ESPECIALLY when they face the Kansas City Chiefs. Only this putrid performance by the Bills defense was nothing new — it was a continuation of an alarming and flummoxing trend that threatens to doom Buffalo’s chances of a return to the postseason. The week before, they allowed Ryan Tannehill to notch four touchdowns and a 129.3 passer rating en route to the Titans scoring a dizzying 42 points. In that game, again, there massive were failures at all three levels of the defense. Prior to that hideous performance, the Bills had also allowed the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff to dominate them through the air.

 

All told, after six games, the Bills defense ranks 25th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. For a once proud, ascending, and dominant unit, it represents an utter and mind boggling failure. Worse yet, there is no obvious explanation for their woes.

 

How can a defense which so recently demonstrated such excellence suddenly find itself so helpless? How can a group led by proven, disciplined minds like Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier now look like a Rex and Rob Ryan led bicycle-built-for-two of crappiness?

 

Some will point to a lack of offseason practice reps — coach McDermott estimates that the Bills lost out on about 500 of them due to COVID-shortened camps. The only problem is that this wonky offseason affected all 32 NFL teams, and you don’t see defensive squads like the Steelers and Ravens suffering for it. Some will point to the opt-out of nose tackle Star Lotulelei and the ripple effect it has on the rest of the defense. This argument may have some merit, but I find it hard to believe that the loss of one defensive tackle has caused the linebackers to forget how to tackle or the safeties to forget what a good angle of pursuit looks like.

 

Some will point to injuries to Tremaine Edmunds and Ed Oliver and Tre’Davious White, or missed games by Matt Milano. Again, there may be some merit to these arguments, though I fail to understand how they lead to Jordan Poyer body-slamming an opponent five yards out of bounds or Jerry Hughes failing to record a sack through six games.

 

Put simply, there are a myriad of reasons that Bills fans can point to when trying to understand the collapse of the defense, but none of them — even when combined together — sufficiently explain the sorry display that we’ve seen the past several weeks. A drop-off in performance due to injuries? Sure. Fine. A complete inability to exhibit discipline, to tackle well, to win individual assignments, to affect the opposition’s quarterback? Inexcusable and unexplainable.

 

While the Bills offense came storming out of the gates the first few weeks of the season, they seem to be regressing to the mean. With that in mind, it is crucially important that the defense diagnose its struggles, fix them, and find a way to field a unit that is at least COMPETITIVE most Sundays. Unfortunately, there appears to be no easy solution. No miracle trade will save them, no “Rudy” style midseason pep talk. They just need to do, well…EVERYTHING better. If they can’t, they will doom Bills Mafia to a most chilling fate, indeed, and one to which they have grown most accustomed these past two decades: watching their team miss the playoffs, and uttering that horrid phrase they know all too well — “Maybe next year”.

 

We lost the beef

 

 

[Locomark]

On 10/21/2020 at 1:21 PM, billsfan89 said:

In my amateur opinion I think the defense has regressed due to two main reasons. One is poor scheming. There needs to be more blitzing and stunts. The defense is rarely attacking and counting on the front four which is the other big issue. The other issue is the regression on the defensive line. Fans will see Shaq and J.Phillips leaving and point to that. But Shaq was never a good pass rusher and J.Phillips not a big run stuffer. In fact the two players brought in to replace Shaq and J.Phillips (Addison and Jefferson) have been two of the better players on the defense. The one miss along the D-line's new players is Butler who in my opinion has been a non-factor. 

 

Most of the regression is as a result of the 2019 players

 

Hughes - Looks a bit older and slower. 

H.Phillips - Ineffective probably still recovering from injury. 

Murphy - Looks worse than last season when he was meh. 

Star- Opted out

Ed Oliver- Not looking bad but not progressing either. 

 

Add in the fact that AJ a resource invested in the D-line hasn't had a normal off-season and is a non-factor. I would also say that the Milano and Levi injuries have had a negative impact on the back end of the defense. Right now the three things the front office can do is to adjust the scheme, bring in a run stuffing DT, and get Milano and Levi back. Those should help but without a trade for a war daddy D-line pass rusher the defense will be hampered. 

This sums up what is a wrong take and a right take... a right take is out DL is terrible. AJ doing nothing just adds to that misery.  

 

The wrong take, which I have seen in this board over and over, is that we aren’t blitzing enough or as much as we used to. That’s incorrect. They showed a graphic on one of the last 2 games showing we were actually one of the top blitzing teams in the league. ( I believe it was in the neighborhood of 35%) 

 

So if you can’t blitz and get there, your DL sucks but you have even bigger problems because it means you don’t have the talent to cover long enough man on man OR your second tier of rushers aren’t hiding their blitz well.

 

Any way you slice it, we aren’t getting to the QB, we are manhandled at the line of scrimmage, and it’s brutal to watch. I feel like we have totally missed on value on our last 3 DL picks.

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Locomark

[Nihilarian]

What the last two games against the Titans, Chiefs showed that Buffalo isn't on the same level as those two. Now that the Titans found a decent QB, played zone defense and got a lot of pressure on Josh Allen it was like watching a low level college team play a professional team.

 

Both sides of the Bills lines were pushed all over the field on both offense and defense. For me, It was embarrassing to be a Bills fan watching both sides of the lines pushed around like that. 

 

Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had more than a 10+ yard per carry before the first half of that game and that did change to 6.2 YPC at the end. Still, you would think that the Bills defensive coaches would have made changes to stop that Chiefs run game... 46 rushes for 245 yards. 

 

I think that Frazier/McD were so afraid of Mahomes throwing deep to Tyreek Hill that they didn't see that the weather conditions weren't conducive to passing.

 

Shameful stuff, to see the Bills look so dreadful in two prime time games with the entire NFL world watching. 

[Coach Tuesday]

10 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

We lost the beef

 

 

Ten years in and you’re still quoting the entire OP for a one-sentence reply.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/21/2020 at 8:21 PM, BillsMafi$ said:

It’s as simple as this...

 

the defense was never that good. Look at the schedule from last year and the QBs they faced. 

 

Our defense shut down or contained some top offenses last season.  The Ravens (#1), the Cowboys (#6), the Patriots (#7)

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, Logic said:

You're right. He did not specifically say "I regressed".

I guess I meant that he used language like "this team can't afford for me to play poorly" and "we've gotta be better and that starts with me". That does not necessarily equal "regressed",  but it's not the type of language he was using after the first four games. Could just be generic post-loss player-speak, though.

 

He uses that sort of language even when we win - "I've got to do better, I can't put our defense in that position, our team can't afford for me to do that".

What we were missing is the credit-giving "It starts up front" "it's a group effort" etc.  He never shares blame when we lose, only credit when we win.

Very well trained in his media interactions, is our boy.

 

I don't think Allen "regressed" in the way people think.  He was under a lot more pressure in the Chiefs game and they were playing a lot more zone.  Allen's throws were off at first, he seemed to adjust as the game went on (maybe the rain let up).  Diggs also talked this week about the need to get the timing down against Zone coverage and how Brown helps.  Football can be a game of moments - if Allen throws a moment early and Diggs is held for a moment, what should be an easy antipation throw becomes "inaccurate".

 

I wonder if the Bills practice with sopping wet footballs during the week when rain is expected?  If they don't, they need to. 

 

Allen needs to take the "hot routes" and the checkdowns.  This isn't a regression in that he wasn't doing it the first 4 weeks either, but he didn't need to because the downfield stuff was open.  Where he did regress a bit was in losing his improved technique on some of his throws under pressure, but that's going to happen.

 

Interesting takes on the game:

 

Joe Buscaglia The Athletic on KC:

5) Outside of some missed throws, Allen’s day wasn’t as bad as it seemed

Games like Bills-Chiefs exemplify why watching the coaches film is such an impactful exercise. I initially wrote that this was Allen’s worst game of the season, which it was. But I also thought he was more inaccurate, and that perception didn’t hold up on film. Allen did have issues with ball placement and missed some clear throws — the Stefon Diggs throw to the end zone being the most glaring example — but it wasn’t anything too different from what we’ve seen in other games. It fits with Allen’s identity right now, and the Bills know what he does well far outweighs those bad moments.

Most of the time against the Chiefs, Allen was going with the hand the defense dealt him. The Chiefs’ defense dominated up front, effectively canceling out the running game. They also disguised some of their coverages well and took away most of the Bills’ opportunities over the top. During the rare plays in which the Chiefs were in man coverage with a single-high safety, Allen tried to push the ball down the field. He mainly attacked the short areas when the Chiefs were in Cover 2 and pressured him quickly enough to force an early throw. Allen also continued to show improvements against all-out blitz attempts, reading the defense, spotting the holes in coverage and calmly delivering a quick throw. He was hard on himself after the game for the missed throws early in the game, but he was far from the Bills’ biggest problem on offense. Allen still looked like an advanced version of his 2019 self, even without the statistics to back it up. He has remained on the right track, even in two losses.

 

Jim Kubiak of TBN always produces a detailed and thoughtful analysis:

The Chiefs’ secondary was physical with the Bills receivers, which affected the timing of routes, and the defensive pass rush agitated Allen in the pocket and elsewhere.

(......)
Allen had six passing attempts that can be best described as “bad misses.” There were opportunities, either running across the field or out in the flat in which Allen was simply not able to get the football to the open receiver. In the NFL, execution on these open throws is expected to be flawless. If Allen had completed these basic throws, his 58% completion percentage would have jumped to 74%, and might have led to a different outcome. Six misfires of 27 opportunities is 23% of the passing game.
(.....)

The Chiefs had blitzed seven rushers into the Bills’ five-man protection. Singletary got a free release into the right flat for the purpose of being Allen’s “hot” receiver, in the event the defense blitzed six or seven defenders. If Allen responded appropriately, Singletary might have scored as the Chiefs failed to account for him in coverage and he was wide open.

 

Protections are a quarterback’s first priority in the NFL. Each passing play has a protection that has rules for hot throws. If the defense blitzes players who are not accounted for the quarterback’s job is to throw the football to the hot receiver. This acts as a counterpunch to an overly hostile defensive posture. If a defense blitzes linebackers and leaves the flat open, quarterbacks must take advantage. Unfortunately, Allen’s reaction was to fade away and escape rather than decisively stand in there and deliver the ball to the flat.

 

Allen would have been hit, but he also would have countered the Chiefs’ attacking nature with a huge gain on a quick, short pass. This must be Allen’s area of improvement if he is going to take the Bills to the next level.

 

The bottom line is Allen made some reads and some throws he wouldn't have made last year, but he needs to continue to progress, most clearly with his willingness to take the short checkdown throws that the defense is giving him.

 

 

 

[billsfan89]

17 hours ago, Locomark said:

This sums up what is a wrong take and a right take... a right take is out DL is terrible. AJ doing nothing just adds to that misery.  

 

The wrong take, which I have seen in this board over and over, is that we aren’t blitzing enough or as much as we used to. That’s incorrect. They showed a graphic on one of the last 2 games showing we were actually one of the top blitzing teams in the league. ( I believe it was in the neighborhood of 35%) 

 

So if you can’t blitz and get there, your DL sucks but you have even bigger problems because it means you don’t have the talent to cover long enough man on man OR your second tier of rushers aren’t hiding their blitz well.

 

Any way you slice it, we aren’t getting to the QB, we are manhandled at the line of scrimmage, and it’s brutal to watch. I feel like we have totally missed on value on our last 3 DL picks.

 

 

Even if this team is blitzing and doing stunts on the line it isn't working and doesn't look as attacking or creative as last season. I think it could help to adjust the strategy. But I do agree Dline execution is the bigger issue, one that I think can be helped by adding a true one tech but one that will need more drastic fixes long term. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Even if this team is blitzing and doing stunts on the line it isn't working and doesn't look as attacking or creative as last season. I think it could help to adjust the strategy. But I do agree Dline execution is the bigger issue, one that I think can be helped by adding a true one tech but one that will need more drastic fixes long term. 

 

The Bills thought they were set at 1 tech between Lotulelei and Harrison Phillips.  Then of course Star opted out and Phillips has disappointed.

When you got a chick from the national media calling out your manhood as a football DLman during press availability, that's just so NOT good news.

 

 

[Radar]

Look this defense has been overrated for some time. Last year faced a soft schedule. Added to being a maybe slightly above average defense you now subtract two or three of your best defenders and play two pretty darn good teams these past two weeks and it is what it is. If they don't get healthy even the Jets could make it a game although losing to the worst team in football would be disastrous.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 10/23/2020 at 7:49 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

Ten years in and you’re still quoting the entire OP for a one-sentence reply.

 

And