The Maddening Mystery of McDermott's Disappearing Defense

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Nice article.

 

Combo of factors for sure.

A few thoughts...

 

1) Like many on this board, I haven't really valued Star all that much the last couple of years. But, maybe I've been wrong and his lack of stats didn't matter, that he really was/is a cog that helps the other 10.. chewing up space and blockers.

2) Hughes just can't seem to do it anymore like he used to. Hurts to say that, but it's not there.

3) We need to get bigger and stronger. As you mentioned, getting blown off the ball 5 yards sometimes is unacceptable and unsustainable.

4) Scheme. What do I know... but I do know I saw holes 10 feet wide vs KC. How does that happen?

5) Milano is a difference-maker. Amazing how 1 guy changes the whole vibe on defense.

6) Have Hyde/Poyer peaked and/or on their way down?

7) Could use me some Lorax right now.

8 ) Would welcome a trade for a very large, mean and nasty Interior DL. Lose pick(s) and $ in the deal if you have to.

 

 

I could be wrong, but I think that teams whose schemes require a very large mean and nasty interior DLmen aren't trading them.

 

Point 2) Holding.  Offensive holding is a big thing

 

Point 3) I think all of these football players are incredibly strong and incredible athletes.  Part of the difference between success and failure is believing you can.

[Nextmanup]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree.

 

The article I wrote this week was almost going to be about Josh’s regression.

 

Even though the offense needs to get back on track, it doesn’t excuse the defense completely falling off a cliff. With McDermott as head coach, the defense should never be as bad as it’s been this season. And it IS weird that it’s gotten this bad, this fast.

I hear you; the drop-off in D performance relative to recent years is an interesting story and relevant subject matter unto itself.  

 

I do think the bigger topic moving forward is Allen, and whether or not Tennessee showed the league how to confuse and beat him.  We'll know when we see more games!  If he struggles against the Jets....

 

 

 

[appoo]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree.

 

The article I wrote this week was almost going to be about Josh’s regression.

 

Even though the offense needs to get back on track, it doesn’t excuse the defense completely falling off a cliff. With McDermott as head coach, the defense should never be as bad as it’s been this season. And it IS weird that it’s gotten this bad, this fast.

 

That would be a bad article. He had 2 bad drives against the Chiefs. After that Daboll stopped running their normal offense until they were down 23 - 10. 

 

Against the Titans, Josh really only had 1 terrible throw, and while he had some slight troubles with accuracy, really it was his WRs who let him down that game. 

 

He led the Bills to a TD to get within 12 with 10 left to play, and never touched the ball again. 

 

Against both the Chiefs and Titans, Allen responded nicely to adversity. 

Just now, Nextmanup said:

I hear you; the drop-off in D performance relative to recent years is an interesting story and relevant subject matter unto itself.  

 

I do think the bigger topic moving forward is Allen, and whether or not Tennessee showed the league how to confuse and beat him.  We'll know when we see more games!  If he struggles against the Jets....

 

 

 

 

The Titans didn't confuse him. He had one bad throw in the 2nd half, while he was tearing up the zone. A 14 play 64 yards drive where a TD seemed inevitable to get within 21 - 17. 

 

This is one narrative that doesn't hold with reality

[Logic]

I didn’t mention this in the article, because it’s not a valid set of excuses in and of itself, BUT...

 

I do believe the way the NFL has decided to call games this year (and the decision to basically ignore Holding, and the offensive outburst across the league that followed) have to at least be considered as factors. As does the lack of fans in stands to get defenses “juiced”.

 

The problem, again, is that these Factors affect all teams equally, so the Bills can’t really use them as excuses.

[HOUSE]

This was a really long thread

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by HOUSE

[corta765]

Good post my only comment would be on the offense regressing to the mean. IMO Allen actually played pretty well outside of the 2nd INT against TEN. Otherwise I thought he was pretty sharp and with a little more help by the guys on D they would've been ok. I still think the offense will carry the team to the playoffs and there is much to believe they will including the fact the division is the most wide open it has been in forever. If the mean is they are a top 10 attack because of the passing game making plays as they have I think we are ok.

That said I think it is foolish to believe the defense will reach a point where you can rely on them how we had for a few years now and if Josh reverts back to last years play this season very well could become a shoulda, coulda, woulda type year across the board.

[Nextmanup]

6 minutes ago, appoo said:

 

That would be a bad article. He had 2 bad drives against the Chiefs. After that Daboll stopped running their normal offense until they were down 23 - 10. 

 

Against the Titans, Josh really only had 1 terrible throw, and while he had some slight troubles with accuracy, really it was his WRs who let him down that game. 

 

He led the Bills to a TD to get within 12 with 10 left to play, and never touched the ball again. 

 

Against both the Chiefs and Titans, Allen responded nicely to adversity. 

 

The Titans didn't confuse him. He had one bad throw in the 2nd half, while he was tearing up the zone. A 14 play 64 yards drive where a TD seemed inevitable to get within 21 - 17. 

 

This is one narrative that doesn't hold with reality

OK, I totally disagree with you.  Allen has dropped off a cliff in his last 2 games and we lost both games because of it.

 

Have a look at his stats.

 

 

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, appoo said:

 

That would be a bad article. He had 2 bad drives against the Chiefs. After that Daboll stopped running their normal offense until they were down 23 - 10. 

 

Against the Titans, Josh really only had 1 terrible throw, and while he had some slight troubles with accuracy, really it was his WRs who let him down that game. 

 

He led the Bills to a TD to get within 12 with 10 left to play, and never touched the ball again. 

 

Against both the Chiefs and Titans, Allen responded nicely to adversity. 

 

The Titans didn't confuse him. He had one bad throw in the 2nd half, while he was tearing up the zone. A 14 play 64 yards drive where a TD seemed inevitable to get within 21 - 17. 

 

This is one narrative that doesn't hold with reality

Respectfully, I disagree. He was visibly less accurate with his ball placement against both the Titans and Chiefs.

His passer ratings were 77.6 and 73.4.

 

The offense scored 16 and 17 points.

 

Allen absolutely DID regress the past two weeks, and he himself stated as much after both games.

 

Note: I’m not saying he’s bad or isn’t our franchise QB or any such thing. I am simply acknowledging the reality — backed up by stats and passer ratings and point outputs and my eyeballs— that he was worse the past two weeks than he has been all year.

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by Logic

[appoo]

Like I said, he's was terrible in the first 2 drives against the Chiefs, had a brutal INT against the Titans, and was slightly off in the first half of that game. They also had about 5 drops from WRs against the Titans in the first half. 

 

You aren't seeing Josh regress so much as you're seeing teams take away the deep ball with a LOT of double highs. He's hitting a lot <15 passes. Against TN he had 5 Incompletions in the 2nd half.  In the first half there was about 5 drops. 

 

That's not regression. 

[billsfan89]

In my amateur opinion I think the defense has regressed due to two main reasons. One is poor scheming. There needs to be more blitzing and stunts. The defense is rarely attacking and counting on the front four which is the other big issue. The other issue is the regression on the defensive line. Fans will see Shaq and J.Phillips leaving and point to that. But Shaq was never a good pass rusher and J.Phillips not a big run stuffer. In fact the two players brought in to replace Shaq and J.Phillips (Addison and Jefferson) have been two of the better players on the defense. The one miss along the D-line's new players is Butler who in my opinion has been a non-factor. 

 

Most of the regression is as a result of the 2019 players

 

Hughes - Looks a bit older and slower. 

H.Phillips - Ineffective probably still recovering from injury. 

Murphy - Looks worse than last season when he was meh. 

Star- Opted out

Ed Oliver- Not looking bad but not progressing either. 

 

Add in the fact that AJ a resource invested in the D-line hasn't had a normal off-season and is a non-factor. I would also say that the Milano and Levi injuries have had a negative impact on the back end of the defense. Right now the three things the front office can do is to adjust the scheme, bring in a run stuffing DT, and get Milano and Levi back. Those should help but without a trade for a war daddy D-line pass rusher the defense will be hampered. 

[fergie's ire]

I think we are missing some unsexy but important pieces.  Yes, Start would clog the middle.  Also, the problem with Shaq is he was just and "edge setter."  Well, time and time again against Tenn. Tannyhill would scramble outside and there was nobody there....we would fail to set the edge.  Also, not sure what happened with Taron Johnson.  His rookie year, he seemed like a real difference maker and we missed him when he was out....but just not seeing that from him this year.

[corta765]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

OK, I totally disagree with you.  Allen has dropped off a cliff in his last 2 games and we lost both games because of it.

 

Have a look at his stats.

 

 

 

Disagree. Titans game he had one truly awful pass the rest of the game I don't blame him for. After the INT the Bills score to get it back to 28-16 with 10 mins plus left to play. The defense proceeds to allow a TD drive that includes three different 3rd downs they can stop. Then Roberts fumbles the ball. By the time the Bills offense gets the ball back its is 42-16 with 2:00 mins left. 

 

The Titans game the offense at least was moving the ball and getting some chunk plays. The defense and special teams effectively made it where they couldn't make a single mistake. The offense was certainly not perfect, but they moved the ball enough that they could've helped get a W as the yards gained showed.

 

The Chiefs game I totally agree was a tire fire and it was concerning to see Allen look so off to the point it brought back 2018 or last years bad games. In the first 5 games you could depend on the offense to at least move the ball on drives, in this game they couldn't stop with short drives and time of possession showed it.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

This Defense needs a space eater in the middle to make everything else work. Without Star and Jordan Phillips, we just don’t have that this year. I honestly believe that is whole reason all of these other weaknesses started showing up. 

Ding...ding...ding....winning answer. Everything bad that is our defense starts at the front 4. Losing Star and Jordan absolutely killed this team. It Immediately makes everyone look less effective. Now add losing Lorax & Shaq and the remaining players go from ineffective to bad. Sprinkle in injuries and White debating whether to opt out and bad goes to embarrassing. The first 2 weeks the defense was ineffective. Weeks 3-5 it was bad. These last 2 weeks have been embarrassing. I'd hate to be in McDefence's shoes.

[section122]

1 hour ago, Like A Mofo said:

When you think about it like this: The Bills had a top tier defense last year and here are the factors that have changed;

 

Shaq Lawson, Star Louteleli, Jordan Phillips and Lorenzo Alexander, 4/11 starters are GONE from that unit.

2019 Schedule was significantly easier then 2020.

Injuries have increased 10 fold on the defense

Offense playing at much higher level causes teams to adjust how they play against the defense and thus may have exposed weaknesses not as evident as last year.

 

Overall I really like Brandon Beane, and I am not sure if Phillips and Shaq would have stayed for the right price, but so far that is a big miss.

 

I agree with all of this and want to expand on some of it.

 

Shaq, Jordan, and Lorenzo were not just starters.  They were emotional leaders.  Philips and Lawson played with an edge that the defense is lacking this year.  Zo brought the leadership that also appears to be lacking.  Josh Norman had a quote after the Raiders game along the lines of coach kept saying someone needs to make a play and he said I will make a play.  After the game it was celebrated but it was a little peak into the team.  It took a FA signing on the back end of his career to take charge and bring the edge.  Where was it from the "leaders?"  Tre and Poyer just signed new deals with plans to be around for a while.  They should be stepping up as leaders not taking stupid penalties while the game is still within reach.

 

Agree about the schedule.  They are facing a much better group of QBs this year than last.  It is what is helping me keep my sanity after the last 2 games.  It sucks they lost but the 2 teams area combined 10-1.  Those are good football teams.  They didn't get beaten up by scrubs.

 

Injuries are certainly a factor.  Last year was a really lucky year in that regard and the facilities got a lot of credit so fans expected that luck to continue (I was one of them not gonna lie) and it hasn't.

 

Phillips signed for 3 years 30 million.  Shaq got the same.  We gave that money to Vernon Butler, Quinton Jefferson, and  Mario Addison.  Regardless of the obvious Carolina connection I feel like they downgraded.  To be fair it is more players, less money, and less years but I feel like both Jordan and Shaq brought something to this defense that I have yet to see from the 3 new guys. 

 

I hate to use this word but the defense has been soft.  They have been pushed around and physically dominated.  I would hope/expect to see some fire when this happens but I haven't yet and that to me is the most discouraging part.

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

My favorite line:

 

On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down.

 

I think Mahomes had a sandwich with Pringles on that play.  Sorry, couldn't help myself....

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I agree.

 

The article I wrote this week was almost going to be about Josh’s regression.

 

Even though the offense needs to get back on track, it doesn’t excuse the defense completely falling off a cliff. With McDermott as head coach, the defense should never be as bad as it’s been this season. And it IS weird that it’s gotten this bad, this fast.

Thanks very much for sharing a fine opinion  in the OP
Great source for dialogue as intended, Well Done !

[3rdand12]

45 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I agree with all of this and want to expand on some of it.

 

Shaq, Jordan, and Lorenzo were not just starters.  They were emotional leaders.  Philips and Lawson played with an edge that the defense is lacking this year.  Zo brought the leadership that also appears to be lacking.  Josh Norman had a quote after the Raiders game along the lines of coach kept saying someone needs to make a play and he said I will make a play.  After the game it was celebrated but it was a little peak into the team.  It took a FA signing on the back end of his career to take charge and bring the edge.  Where was it from the "leaders?"  Tre and Poyer just signed new deals with plans to be around for a while.  They should be stepping up as leaders not taking stupid penalties while the game is still within reach.

 

Agree about the schedule.  They are facing a much better group of QBs this year than last.  It is what is helping me keep my sanity after the last 2 games.  It sucks they lost but the 2 teams area combined 10-1.  Those are good football teams.  They didn't get beaten up by scrubs.

 

Injuries are certainly a factor.  Last year was a really lucky year in that regard and the facilities got a lot of credit so fans expected that luck to continue (I was one of them not gonna lie) and it hasn't.

 

Phillips signed for 3 years 30 million.  Shaq got the same.  We gave that money to Vernon Butler, Quinton Jefferson, and  Mario Addison.  Regardless of the obvious Carolina connection I feel like they downgraded.  To be fair it is more players, less money, and less years but I feel like both Jordan and Shaq brought something to this defense that I have yet to see from the 3 new guys. 

 

I hate to use this word but the defense has been soft.  They have been pushed around and physically dominated.  I would hope/expect to see some fire when this happens but I haven't yet and that to me is the most discouraging part.

How does execution fall of so far in one season ? and yes about leadership. Norman should NOT be that guy.
Do not feel like Butler Jefferson and certainly not Addison are major drop..
 But nor have they been a major addition.
Coaching....

[dpberr]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

OK, I totally disagree with you.  Allen has dropped off a cliff in his last 2 games and we lost both games because of it.

 

Have a look at his stats.

 

 

 

I think John Brown being on the field (and 100%) means a lot to Allen's confidence.  I don't think there are any defenses that can contain the Bills speed adequately with Brown/Diggs and Beasley on the field.

 

Lack of any danger from the running game allows the opposing defense to key in on the Bills passing game.  If I were the Bills, I'd be spending time figuring out how to gin up real running yards, even if it means pulling dusty Chan Gailey plays off the bookshelf.  (Not a bad idea.)

[WideNine]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

I wrote an article about the Bills' defensive woes. I will paste it in full here, though it looks better at the link with pictures and such.

And before anyone says it: Yes, it's longer than a typical TBD post. It's an article, it's supposed to be. 

http://buffalofambase.com/2020/10/21/maddening-mystery-mcdermotts-disappearing-defense/

 

 

The Maddening Mystery of McDermott’s Disappearing Defense

Gather ’round, kiddies. In the spirit of Halloween, I’d like to tell you a spooky and mysterious tale. A tale of overmatched linemen, missed tackles, and vanishing big plays. A tale of a once proud and fearsome platoon, reduced suddenly and shockingly to a sniveling and pitiable state of helplessness. I must warn you that this tale is not for the faint of heart. Indeed, it is sure to send chills up the spine of every member of Bills Mafia and leave them shaking in their Zubaz. It is a tale which must be told, though, for it may decide the very fate of the Bills’ season.

To understand where we are now, though, we must first look back to from where we came.

The date is December 15, 2019. Under the bright lights of Heinz Field, the Buffalo Bills have just notched their tenth win of the season, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 on Sunday Night Football. The victory was due mainly to the exploits of their relentless and swarming defense. That night, Buffalo tallied four sacks, nine tackles-for-loss, and four interceptions. Up-and-coming star cornerback Tre’Davious White picked off two Duck Hodges passes. While the Bills themselves only scored ten points, it didn’t matter. Their defense won the day. The victory clinched a playoff spot for a Bills team that had been carried by its dominant defense all year. At season’s end, the Bills defense ranked second in points allowed and third in yards allowed.

The lofty finish seemed to be a continuation of the upward trajectory on which the Bills defense had found itself for three seasons under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, one which had seen the Bills finish as the best pass defense in football the year before. Led by young, exciting defenders like Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Ed Oliver, as well as savvy vets like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, the Bills defense appeared to be embarking on a sustained period of greatness. Appearances, though, can be deceiving.

October 19, 2020. For the second time in two weeks, the Bills have just faced a top AFC opponent in front of a national audience. For the second time in two weeks, their defense has looked feeble, toothless, helpless, and has directly contributed to a humiliating defeat. This time, the loss came at the hands of a Chiefs team which rushed for an eye-popping 245 yards and whose quarterback finished with a 128.4 quarterback rating.

 

Play after play, the Bills’ defensive linemen were blown off the ball, driven back five yards, and buried in the turf. The next line of defense — the linebackers — faired no better. At times, the physical domination by Kansas City’s offense was reminiscent of the Urbania Cowboys bulldozing the Little Giants — only this time there would be no “Annexation of Puerto Rico” play to save the day. Instead, with one last chance to stop the Chiefs offense and give the Bills a chance to score a winning touchdown, the Bills defense folded like a cheap suit.

 

On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. The failure of the Buffalo defenders on the play summed up the night perfectly: all three levels of the defense suffered at least one instance of poor execution, culminating in the Chief’s ninth 3rd down conversion of the night and resulting, ultimately, in another Bills loss.

 

It was a night filled with sights that Bills fans simply weren’t used to seeing prior to this season, but which have now somehow become commonplace: poor execution, poor discipline, stupid mistakes, blown coverages, missed tackles, bad fundamentals, and — crucially, this time– a complete inability to get off the field on third downs. All defenses have bad nights now and again, ESPECIALLY when they face the Kansas City Chiefs. Only this putrid performance by the Bills defense was nothing new — it was a continuation of an alarming and flummoxing trend that threatens to doom Buffalo’s chances of a return to the postseason. The week before, they allowed Ryan Tannehill to notch four touchdowns and a 129.3 passer rating en route to the Titans scoring a dizzying 42 points. In that game, again, there massive were failures at all three levels of the defense. Prior to that hideous performance, the Bills had also allowed the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff to dominate them through the air.

 

All told, after six games, the Bills defense ranks 25th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. For a once proud, ascending, and dominant unit, it represents an utter and mind boggling failure. Worse yet, there is no obvious explanation for their woes.

 

How can a defense which so recently demonstrated such excellence suddenly find itself so helpless? How can a group led by proven, disciplined minds like Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier now look like a Rex and Rob Ryan led bicycle-built-for-two of crappiness?

 

Some will point to a lack of offseason practice reps — coach McDermott estimates that the Bills lost out on about 500 of them due to COVID-shortened camps. The only problem is that this wonky offseason affected all 32 NFL teams, and you don’t see defensive squads like the Steelers and Ravens suffering for it. Some will point to the opt-out of nose tackle Star Lotulelei and the ripple effect it has on the rest of the defense. This argument may have some merit, but I find it hard to believe that the loss of one defensive tackle has caused the linebackers to forget how to tackle or the safeties to forget what a good angle of pursuit looks like.

 

Some will point to injuries to Tremaine Edmunds and Ed Oliver and Tre’Davious White, or missed games by Matt Milano. Again, there may be some merit to these arguments, though I fail to understand how they lead to Jordan Poyer body-slamming an opponent five yards out of bounds or Jerry Hughes failing to record a sack through six games.

 

Put simply, there are a myriad of reasons that Bills fans can point to when trying to understand the collapse of the defense, but none of them — even when combined together — sufficiently explain the sorry display that we’ve seen the past several weeks. A drop-off in performance due to injuries? Sure. Fine. A complete inability to exhibit discipline, to tackle well, to win individual assignments, to affect the opposition’s quarterback? Inexcusable and unexplainable.

 

While the Bills offense came storming out of the gates the first few weeks of the season, they seem to be regressing to the mean. With that in mind, it is crucially important that the defense diagnose its struggles, fix them, and find a way to field a unit that is at least COMPETITIVE most Sundays. Unfortunately, there appears to be no easy solution. No miracle trade will save them, no “Rudy” style midseason pep talk. They just need to do, well…EVERYTHING better. If they can’t, they will doom Bills Mafia to a most chilling fate, indeed, and one to which they have grown most accustomed these past two decades: watching their team miss the playoffs, and uttering that horrid phrase they know all too well — “Maybe next year”.

 

 

Nice. Props for the entertaining prose. Captured my sentiments about the defense very well. 

 

Our defense reminds me of the stories that circulated regarding that bridge collapse in MN a few years back. Apparently the bridge design was a French design that was incredibly strong, but did not incorporate redundant support material. It was desirable because it was cheaper to build, and as long as it was maintained, it was up to the task; However, if one piece failed it would come down like a house of cards -  as we know, a piece did fail and the bridge collapsed.

If I were to point out anything about McD's defense, it is that it seems to be very dependent on key roles that may or may not fit his current personnel. That is a growth area for he and Frazier to tackle at this stage. How do they mold their defense to better fit the strengths of the guys they can actually suit up on Sunday, and once put in a position where they can succeed, motivate them to execute better?

 

We will see the truth of McD's "growth-mindset" in how it applies to the Bills' coaching staff as it is being put to a serious test this season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by WideNine

[Alphadawg7]

Nice work on the article, but no disrespect, but I dont really think its not a mystery at all.  

1. Star opted out.  Despite the stat sheet heroes around here who always want to cut him because they don't actually understand the trenches, he was very important in the middle of our D.  He is a space eater and helps free up our penetrators and LB's.  Without Star, our DT's inside are undersized and overwhelmed.  
2. Milano has been hurt a lot this year, and he is very important to our defense.  
3. Edmunds missed time has been playing hurt and doesn't seem to have the confidence back yet.  
4. Our secondary has had its own injury problems.
5. We have several new pieces on defense where we did not have a preseason of full camp to really work with moving people around to figure out the strongest lineup and where each is best and worst at.  

Some of these issues have been plaguing other teams too.  Its why defenses across the NFL have been historically bad as the league is looking at new records offensively across the board, including scoring.  

 

End of the day, health and the lack of size in the middle are our two biggest issues right now.  One is out of our control (injuries) and the other was compounded when Star opted out late in the offseason.  

 

My hope is that Beane tries and find some size to plug into the middle before the trade deadline.  If our interior of our line keeps getting chewed up and cant get off their blocks, well the LB's and DE's cant do their jobs either.  Against a team like KC with no Milano, we needed our LBs in coverage more and that allowed Helaire to go off in the ground game beach their OL just pushed our DT's around.  

 

Oliver is a penetrating DT, he needs a space eater next to him to be effective.  He wasn't drafted to be a run stuffer, he was drafted to put pressure up the middle on the QB.  We need more beef next to him.