Logic Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) I wrote an article about the Bills' defensive woes. I will paste it in full here, though it looks better at the link with pictures and such. And before anyone says it: Yes, it's longer than a typical TBD post. It's an article, it's supposed to be. http://buffalofambase.com/2020/10/21/maddening-mystery-mcdermotts-disappearing-defense/ The Maddening Mystery of McDermott’s Disappearing Defense Gather ’round, kiddies. In the spirit of Halloween, I’d like to tell you a spooky and mysterious tale. A tale of overmatched linemen, missed tackles, and vanishing big plays. A tale of a once proud and fearsome platoon, reduced suddenly and shockingly to a sniveling and pitiable state of helplessness. I must warn you that this tale is not for the faint of heart. Indeed, it is sure to send chills up the spine of every member of Bills Mafia and leave them shaking in their Zubaz. It is a tale which must be told, though, for it may decide the very fate of the Bills’ season. To understand where we are now, though, we must first look back to from where we came. The date is December 15, 2019. Under the bright lights of Heinz Field, the Buffalo Bills have just notched their tenth win of the season, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 on Sunday Night Football. The victory was due mainly to the exploits of their relentless and swarming defense. That night, Buffalo tallied four sacks, nine tackles-for-loss, and four interceptions. Up-and-coming star cornerback Tre’Davious White picked off two Duck Hodges passes. While the Bills themselves only scored ten points, it didn’t matter. Their defense won the day. The victory clinched a playoff spot for a Bills team that had been carried by its dominant defense all year. At season’s end, the Bills defense ranked second in points allowed and third in yards allowed. The lofty finish seemed to be a continuation of the upward trajectory on which the Bills defense had found itself for three seasons under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, one which had seen the Bills finish as the best pass defense in football the year before. Led by young, exciting defenders like Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White, and Ed Oliver, as well as savvy vets like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, the Bills defense appeared to be embarking on a sustained period of greatness. Appearances, though, can be deceiving. October 19, 2020. For the second time in two weeks, the Bills have just faced a top AFC opponent in front of a national audience. For the second time in two weeks, their defense has looked feeble, toothless, helpless, and has directly contributed to a humiliating defeat. This time, the loss came at the hands of a Chiefs team which rushed for an eye-popping 245 yards and whose quarterback finished with a 128.4 quarterback rating. Play after play, the Bills’ defensive linemen were blown off the ball, driven back five yards, and buried in the turf. The next line of defense — the linebackers — faired no better. At times, the physical domination by Kansas City’s offense was reminiscent of the Urbania Cowboys bulldozing the Little Giants — only this time there would be no “Annexation of Puerto Rico” play to save the day. Instead, with one last chance to stop the Chiefs offense and give the Bills a chance to score a winning touchdown, the Bills defense folded like a cheap suit. On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. The failure of the Buffalo defenders on the play summed up the night perfectly: all three levels of the defense suffered at least one instance of poor execution, culminating in the Chief’s ninth 3rd down conversion of the night and resulting, ultimately, in another Bills loss. It was a night filled with sights that Bills fans simply weren’t used to seeing prior to this season, but which have now somehow become commonplace: poor execution, poor discipline, stupid mistakes, blown coverages, missed tackles, bad fundamentals, and — crucially, this time– a complete inability to get off the field on third downs. All defenses have bad nights now and again, ESPECIALLY when they face the Kansas City Chiefs. Only this putrid performance by the Bills defense was nothing new — it was a continuation of an alarming and flummoxing trend that threatens to doom Buffalo’s chances of a return to the postseason. The week before, they allowed Ryan Tannehill to notch four touchdowns and a 129.3 passer rating en route to the Titans scoring a dizzying 42 points. In that game, again, there massive were failures at all three levels of the defense. Prior to that hideous performance, the Bills had also allowed the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff to dominate them through the air. All told, after six games, the Bills defense ranks 25th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. For a once proud, ascending, and dominant unit, it represents an utter and mind boggling failure. Worse yet, there is no obvious explanation for their woes. How can a defense which so recently demonstrated such excellence suddenly find itself so helpless? How can a group led by proven, disciplined minds like Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier now look like a Rex and Rob Ryan led bicycle-built-for-two of crappiness? Some will point to a lack of offseason practice reps — coach McDermott estimates that the Bills lost out on about 500 of them due to COVID-shortened camps. The only problem is that this wonky offseason affected all 32 NFL teams, and you don’t see defensive squads like the Steelers and Ravens suffering for it. Some will point to the opt-out of nose tackle Star Lotulelei and the ripple effect it has on the rest of the defense. This argument may have some merit, but I find it hard to believe that the loss of one defensive tackle has caused the linebackers to forget how to tackle or the safeties to forget what a good angle of pursuit looks like. Some will point to injuries to Tremaine Edmunds and Ed Oliver and Tre’Davious White, or missed games by Matt Milano. Again, there may be some merit to these arguments, though I fail to understand how they lead to Jordan Poyer body-slamming an opponent five yards out of bounds or Jerry Hughes failing to record a sack through six games. Put simply, there are a myriad of reasons that Bills fans can point to when trying to understand the collapse of the defense, but none of them — even when combined together — sufficiently explain the sorry display that we’ve seen the past several weeks. A drop-off in performance due to injuries? Sure. Fine. A complete inability to exhibit discipline, to tackle well, to win individual assignments, to affect the opposition’s quarterback? Inexcusable and unexplainable. While the Bills offense came storming out of the gates the first few weeks of the season, they seem to be regressing to the mean. With that in mind, it is crucially important that the defense diagnose its struggles, fix them, and find a way to field a unit that is at least COMPETITIVE most Sundays. Unfortunately, there appears to be no easy solution. No miracle trade will save them, no “Rudy” style midseason pep talk. They just need to do, well…EVERYTHING better. If they can’t, they will doom Bills Mafia to a most chilling fate, indeed, and one to which they have grown most accustomed these past two decades: watching their team miss the playoffs, and uttering that horrid phrase they know all too well — “Maybe next year”. Edited October 21, 2020 by Logic 11 4 8
Haslett_Stomp Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) Thanks for posting this, OP. It appeared the defense finally had some "juice" (as Norman calls it) on the KC offensive series where Zimmer caused the fumble- that-wasn't. Guys were swarming for the first few plays, then came the penalties to White and Poyer and that was it - back to the tentative, passive defense we have seen all year. Edited October 21, 2020 by Haslett_Stomp 1
Mango Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 I mean it is not a huge mystery. We haven't gotten great production out of our draft picks (yet) and we have done a pretty terrible job in FA in deciding who to let walk at what cost, and who to bring in at what cost. 5
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 and he'd have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids. 8
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 32 minutes ago, Logic said: I wrote an article about the Bills' defensive woes. I will paste it in full here, though it looks better at the link with pictures and such. (....) The date is December 15, 2019. Under the bright lights of Heinz Field, the Buffalo Bills have just notched their tenth win of the season, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-10 on Sunday Night Football. The victory was due mainly to the exploits of their relentless and swarming defense. That night, Buffalo tallied four sacks, nine tackles-for-loss, and four interceptions. Up-and-coming star cornerback Tre’Davious White picked off two Duck Hodges passes. While the Bills themselves only scored ten points, it didn’t matter. Their defense won the day. Nice article Pretty much, This: On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. The failure of the Buffalo defenders on the play summed up the night perfectly: all three levels of the defense suffered at least one instance of poor execution, culminating in the Chief’s ninth 3rd down conversion of the night and resulting, ultimately, in another Bills loss. (....) Put simply, there are a myriad of reasons that Bills fans can point to when trying to understand the collapse of the defense, but none of them — even when combined together — sufficiently explain the sorry display that we’ve seen the past several weeks. A drop-off in performance due to injuries? Sure. Fine. A complete inability to exhibit discipline, to tackle well, to win individual assignments, to affect the opposition’s quarterback? Inexcusable and unexplainable. Nit: the Bills can't beat a team 17-10 but the Bills themselves only scored 10 points. 1
BuffaloBillies Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 Nice article. Combo of factors for sure. A few thoughts... 1) Like many on this board, I haven't really valued Star all that much the last couple of years. But, maybe I've been wrong and his lack of stats didn't matter, that he really was/is a cog that helps the other 10.. chewing up space and blockers. 2) Hughes just can't seem to do it anymore like he used to. Hurts to say that, but it's not there. 3) We need to get bigger and stronger. As you mentioned, getting blown off the ball 5 yards sometimes is unacceptable and unsustainable. 4) Scheme. What do I know... but I do know I saw holes 10 feet wide vs KC. How does that happen? 5) Milano is a difference-maker. Amazing how 1 guy changes the whole vibe on defense. 6) Have Hyde/Poyer peaked and/or on their way down? 7) Could use me some Lorax right now. 8 ) Would welcome a trade for a very large, mean and nasty Interior DL. Lose pick(s) and $ in the deal if you have to. 7 1
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 My favorite line: On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. 1
Logic Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Nice article Pretty much, This: On 3rd and 14, Patrick Mahomes had enough time to make a sandwich, get an early start on his taxes, and then find Byron Pringle for a 1st down. The failure of the Buffalo defenders on the play summed up the night perfectly: all three levels of the defense suffered at least one instance of poor execution, culminating in the Chief’s ninth 3rd down conversion of the night and resulting, ultimately, in another Bills loss. Nit: the Bills can't beat a team 17-10 but the Bills themselves only scored 10 points. D’oh! Great catch. Thanks!
JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 "While the Bills offense came storming out of the gates the first few weeks of the season, they seem to be regressing to the mean." I wonder how much of this is Josh trying to over-compensate early in the game, knowing the defense is not going to hold them to 17. He is at his best under real pressure late in the game but at his absolute worst under perceived pressure early. 3 1
Like A Mofo Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 When you think about it like this: The Bills had a top tier defense last year and here are the factors that have changed; Shaq Lawson, Star Louteleli, Jordan Phillips and Lorenzo Alexander, 4/11 starters are GONE from that unit. 2019 Schedule was significantly easier then 2020. Injuries have increased 10 fold on the defense Offense playing at much higher level causes teams to adjust how they play against the defense and thus may have exposed weaknesses not as evident as last year. Overall I really like Brandon Beane, and I am not sure if Phillips and Shaq would have stayed for the right price, but so far that is a big miss. 8
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said: "While the Bills offense came storming out of the gates the first few weeks of the season, they seem to be regressing to the mean." I wonder how much of this is Josh trying to over-compensate early in the game, knowing the defense is not going to hold them to 17. He is at his best under real pressure late in the game but at his absolute worst under perceived pressure early. I believe it has more to do with our opponent's defensive adaptation and with different pressures. Our first opponents primarily played man and to contain the run and Josh, "make him be a QB". Once we showed that man coverage on our WR was a bad idea, Tenn and KC switched to "make him figure out the coverage and find the gaps" and throwing down a challenge to be patient and sustain long mistake-free drives instead of just trying to force the ball in and make mistakes. I think the injury to Josh's left shoulder that he's wearing a brace for may also play a role. I'm sure he gets "pain management" but it may be affecting his ability to practice and to throw. 2
buffaloboyinATL Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 This Defense needs a space eater in the middle to make everything else work. Without Star and Jordan Phillips, we just don’t have that this year. I honestly believe that is whole reason all of these other weaknesses started showing up. 1
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Logic said: Rex and Rob Ryan led bicycle-built-for-two of crappiness This belongs in the TBD wall of fame, safely archived for periodic reference & review. All well stated, OP. 1
Nextmanup Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 I'm not sure why this board is not putting more emphasis on the magical regression of Josh Allen and the disappearing offense. We won four games in a row because Allen had morphed into a substantially better QB than we have ever seen from him before. The D has been middling to lousy throughout this season. The change the last 2 games is the offense, not the defense. If are going to get back to winning a lot of games, we need to fix the offense, and fast. 1
dpberr Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 If you compare the 2020 defense to McDermott's first season in Buffalo, you will find that this latest version is the most vanilla, conservative defense he's had on the field from a strategy perspective. For a guy who studied under Jim Johnson, there is precious little Jim Johnson strategy in the play calls. How many Double A gap blitzes have you seen in the first couple games by the Bills? The defensive line is getting run over because the opposing offense knows the pressure will only be generated by those four players every down. They know pressure will not come from anywhere else. All the OL has to do is steam roll straight ahead. 1
Seventeen Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said: Nice article. Combo of factors for sure. A few thoughts... 1) Like many on this board, I haven't really valued Star all that much the last couple of years. But, maybe I've been wrong and his lack of stats didn't matter, that he really was/is a cog that helps the other 10.. chewing up space and blockers. 2) Hughes just can't seem to do it anymore like he used to. Hurts to say that, but it's not there. 3) We need to get bigger and stronger. As you mentioned, getting blown off the ball 5 yards sometimes is unacceptable and unsustainable. 4) Scheme. What do I know... but I do know I saw holes 10 feet wide vs KC. How does that happen? 5) Milano is a difference-maker. Amazing how 1 guy changes the whole vibe on defense. 6) Have Hyde/Poyer peaked and/or on their way down? 7) Could use me some Lorax right now. 8 ) Would welcome a trade for a very large, mean and nasty Interior DL. Lose pick(s) and $ in the deal if you have to. #4 - Forrest Gump would've scored 3 Monday night
Dablitzkrieg Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: I'm not sure why this board is not putting more emphasis on the magical regression of Josh Allen and the disappearing offense. We won four games in a row because Allen had morphed into a substantially better QB than we have ever seen from him before. The D has been middling to lousy throughout this season. The change the last 2 games is the offense, not the defense. If are going to get back to winning a lot of games, we need to fix the offense, and fast. Probably because it's only been one game that Allen struggled.
appoo Posted October 21, 2020 Posted October 21, 2020 Don't believe it's all that much of a mystery. 1) there's no quality 1 technique on the roster. Jefferson is 6-4 290. Ed Oliver 6-1 287. Phillips is a bit bigger, while Butler actually does have the size of a 1 Technique...and plays underwhelmingly. Star was that guy. Who didn't get much penetration, but you sure as ***** weren't moving him backwards, and when he lined up as the 1 technique, he forced offenses to account for it. 2) Tremaine is having some struggles, and with a bad shoulder a little tougher to shrug off tackles. He's getting far too much flak however 3) The DE play fell off a cliff. Against the Chiefs, the Bills DE - Addison specifically - actually did a decent job of moving Mahomes around the pocket. But that dude is just too good. However, continuous harrassment of Mahomes would have been nice, and that just didn't happen. 4) Without Levi, the Bills don't have a 2nd corner who can cover man against decent WRs, and that shows. You can't really fix the big problem this year. You can't just manifest a 1 Technique, and you can't reverse the years on Jerry Hughes. The Bills are really just going to have to suck it up, and game plan around not being able to bring pressure with the front 4. They're going to have to manufacture pressure, and that means they're going to have to be willing to give up the big play on the back end, and send backers and DBs. This DLine isn't good enopugh on 3rd and long to send just 4 and hope the QB doesn't find someone open. Send 6 against their 5 on 3rd downs. Start selling out more on the run on early downs in hopes of getting to 2nd and where you can blitz. Sooner they accept that, sooner they can paper over the roster deficiencies 3
Logic Posted October 21, 2020 Author Posted October 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: I'm not sure why this board is not putting more emphasis on the magical regression of Josh Allen and the disappearing offense. We won four games in a row because Allen had morphed into a substantially better QB than we have ever seen from him before. The D has been middling to lousy throughout this season. The change the last 2 games is the offense, not the defense. If are going to get back to winning a lot of games, we need to fix the offense, and fast. I agree. The article I wrote this week was almost going to be about Josh’s regression. Even though the offense needs to get back on track, it doesn’t excuse the defense completely falling off a cliff. With McDermott as head coach, the defense should never be as bad as it’s been this season. And it IS weird that it’s gotten this bad, this fast.
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