Going for 2 at 23-16

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

23-16, you still again have a choice if you score a TD to make it 23-22 (if you stop KC)....  To tie or win.

 

I guess? Most coaches kick to tie, but I guess win probability goes out the window when ur playing this KC team

[ogham26]

8 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Well the flip side of that coin is you don't get two, and need a td and extra point just to tie, not to win. 

 

It was the right call to go for 1.  Get a stop, score a Td, and take the lead. 

 

I'm fine with the decision. 

 

agreed for when we are playing any team other than the chiefs.  

[LB48]

9 hours ago, TwistofFate said:

Well the flip side of that coin is you don't get two, and need a td and extra point just to tie, not to win. 

 

It was the right call to go for 1.  Get a stop, score a Td, and take the lead. 

 

I'm fine with the decision. 

Me too!  This was started in the Buffalo News today when a columnist questioned the decision - - not an original thought!

[SDS]

6 hours ago, Simon said:

I think that happens a lot with Mahomes. He's really good at flirting with the LOS, enough so that he crosses up his OLine as often as he fools defenses.

I wonder if stripes are slightly less inclined to drop that particular flag because of it.

 

look at those three linemen downfield. LOL and they missed them all. I don’t really think this is letting it go.

[Mr. WEO]

Should have just gone for 27

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

My son sam texted me from college and was irate they didn't go for two because they weren't going to stop kc from getting a fg. I told him to settle down and that the bills made the right decision. He was right; I was wrong. 

 

 

The HC who put together a humiliating play-not-to-lose gameplan...........was going to play for overtime options?

 

C'mon now.

 

They spent the whole night stopping punches with their face and were simply hoping their exhausted D(15+ minute TOP disparity) could get a turnover and hopefully the Bills offense playing 4 down football could score a TD in the closing seconds and escape with a one point win.

 

[Simon]

6 hours ago, SDS said:

look at those three linemen downfield. LOL and they missed them all. I don’t really think this is letting it go.

Well, that will put you right off your breakfast.....

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The HC who put together a humiliating play-not-to-lose gameplan...........was going to play for overtime options?

 

C'mon now.

 

They spent the whole night stopping punches with their face and were simply hoping their exhausted D(15+ minute TOP disparity) could get a turnover and hopefully the Bills offense playing 4 down football could score a TD in the closing seconds and escape with a one point win.

 

Sal just said on WGR that going for two is a defeatist attitude. But that’s the whole game plan. Hold them off, let them run,  and don’t give up a TD each drive. But when it comes down to it it’s the same as Lynn punting in OT

[Thurman#1]

17 hours ago, njbuff said:

Wouldn't have made one bit of difference. 

 

If the Chiefs needed a TD if they led 23-18, they would have CERTAINLY gotten that TD to put this game away.

 

It was pretty evident that the Chiefs knew they could do whatever they wanted against the pitiful Bills D.

 

 

Not certainly or anywhere close. Nor did the Chiefs know they could do whatever they wanted. If they had known that, guess what, they'd have done whatever they wanted, and would have scored a hell of a lot more than 26 points.

 

I'm not arguing the D played well, but the Chiefs weren't doing everything they wanted or getting everything they wanted.

 

The Bills turned a lot of drives into FGs that game.

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

I said it on the drive, I’d go for two. Needed a spark to chang the momentum, and put some pressure back on KC. 
McDermott is a slow learner, he learns, just takes time. 

[Billsfan1972]

15 hours ago, QCity said:

 

He made the right call by the traditional book and even by many advanced statistical models. So if it happens again I hope he does opt for the single point.

 

Is there a model for going against Mahomes on a rainy, wet field, in a windy stadium when your defense has given up 250yds on the ground? No, so I guess that leaves room for an argument. Regardless, it wasn't the reason we lost the game.

Interesting, but not sure I agree based on the timing, knowing the D isn't particularly good, you're playing the Chiefs and you will have only 1 more possession (barring a turnover or an on-side kick).  

 

You may say regardless, but if they converted and it is 26-18, the last  drive takes on a different look.

1 hour ago, Chemical said:

Sal just said on WGR that going for two is a defeatist attitude. But that’s the whole game plan. Hold them off, let them run,  and don’t give up a TD each drive. But when it comes down to it it’s the same as Lynn punting in OT

Makes no sense, as should they miss the first 2 point convert, stop KC & score they still have an option to kick for the tie or 2 for the win.

 

Conversely let's pretend the runner's knee is not down & they recover and score & are up 26-23, then KC needs a FG to tie not win.

Edited October 21, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Interesting, but not sure I agree based on the timing, knowing the D isn't particularly good, you're playing the Chiefs and you will have only 1 more possession (barring a turnover or an on-side kick).  

 

You may say regardless, but if they converted and it is 26-18, the last  drive takes on a different look.

Makes no sense, as should they miss the first 2 point convert, stop KC & score they still have an option to kick for the tie or 2 for the win.

 

Conversely let's pretend the runner's knee is not down & they recover and score & are up 26-23, then KC needs a FG to tie not win.

makes no sense? You just described a situation where they could tie or win. 
 

would you expect them to stop the chiefs from getting in fg range? They have a good kicker also btw 

 

the runner’s knee was down 

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, Chemical said:

makes no sense? You just described a situation where they could tie or win. 
 

would you expect them to stop the chiefs from getting in fg range? They have a good kicker also btw 

 

the runner’s knee was down 

Huh????  We know the knee was down.  I was explaining the scenarios where 2, 2 point converts would have given the Bills an opportunity to win or tie.  The second scenario was if the Bills went up 26-23, then KC needed a Fg to tie, not win.....  Here are the scenarios:

 

1. 23-16 miss 2-point

Stop KC and a TD and kick is 23-23, another 2 point convert 24-23 Buffalo

2. 23-18

Stop KC, score TD & up 24-23, a 2-pont convert is the automatic decision & KC needs a FG to tie 26-26

3. 23-18

KC kicks a FG, which happened & 26-18 & Bills had 2 minutes needing to score & 2 point convert & time to move down the field.

 

Not sure how many other options.

 

If it actually was 26-18, you don't think the last drive may have been different?

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Chemical said:

Sal just said on WGR that going for two is a defeatist attitude. But that’s the whole game plan. Hold them off, let them run,  and don’t give up a TD each drive. But when it comes down to it it’s the same as Lynn punting in OT

 

 

It's a disheartening style for the fanbase and you have to think the players feel the same way.   Those are the games where guys like Hyde and Poyer and White go home and tell their families that the front office just didn't push the right buttons with the personnel decisions in front of them.    The defensive backs in this defense have been making far too many tackles the past 4 years.    It's gotta' be discouraging for them to be this far into a regime and not be better at pressuring the passer or stopping the run.   

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Huh????  We know the knee was down.  I was explaining the scenarios where 2, 2 point converts would have given the Bills an opportunity to win or tie.  The second scenario was if the Bills went up 26-23, then KC needed a Fg to tie, not win.....  Here are the scenarios:

 

1. 23-16 miss 2-point

Stop KC and a TD and kick is 23-23, another 2 point convert 24-23 Buffalo

2. 23-18

Stop KC, score TD & up 24-23, a 2-pont convert is the automatic decision & KC needs a FG to tie 26-26

3. 23-18

KC kicks a FG, which happened & 26-18 & Bills had 2 minutes needing to score & 2 point convert & time to move down the field.

 

Not sure how many other options.

 

If it actually was 26-18, you don't think the last drive may have been different?

 

It makes sense assuming KC scores 3. 

 

If they dont make it - you are down 7 vs. 6.  A stop+TD now gets you a tie vs. a lead.  You can still go for 2 to win.  But 2 XPs is 90% probability achievements - 1 of 2 2 pt conversions gives you 2 coin flips.  If you miss the first, i doubt a coach decides to do it again down 1 with little time on the clock.  

 

An assumption of KC scoring makes the math make sense, but from a win probability percentage 2 kicks is probably more likely to get you a lead vs. 2 point conversion attempts.

[Penfield45]

7 hours ago, Chemical said:

Sal just said on WGR that going for two is a defeatist attitude. But that’s the whole game plan. Hold them off, let them run,  and don’t give up a TD each drive. But when it comes down to it it’s the same as Lynn punting in OT

 

Sal is insufferable 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

On 10/21/2020 at 8:18 AM, Chemical said:

makes no sense? You just described a situation where they could tie or win. 
 

would you expect them to stop the chiefs from getting in fg range? They have a good kicker also btw 

 

the runner’s knee was down 

From 2018 & 19 seasons.  Below it equates to a better outcome going for 2 every time 98.8% vs. 94.1% (over two TD's).  So yes it made sense in addition to my scenario that they should have gone for two at 23-16. 

 

Over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, kickers combined to make 94.1% of extra point attempts, meaning the Expected Points Added (EPA) for that play is 0.941. During those same two seasons, the NFL's two-point conversion rate was 49.4%, which is an EPA of 0.988.