And the 2024 Race Begins

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm just saying that I've personally seen the incredible (and very short term) effects of a cortisone injection on someone with severe arthritis. High-dose Prednisone too. It just makes sense to me that the "energetic" Joe may have more to do with the timing of these typical old guy meds than with some extraordinary amphetamine thing as has been speculated about way too much.

Could be a total coink-dink that his arthritis treatment gave him a needed jolt at the exact time and place he needed an extra jolt.   One of the contraindications could possibly be '...intense burst of energy commencing at 9pm on a Friday night in March', but it's hardly a conspiracy theory that they jacked the geez up just prior to an important speech before the world, at least based on readily available clips of Biden appearing confused, wandering about, and struggling with when to pause while delivering a speech on a teleprompter.

 

It's irrelevant anyways.  He's been on a senior walkabout since well before the election.  It matters to some people, doesn't matter to others.  

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

FEAR.

 

 

 

 

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[B-Man]

 

Donald Trump Had a Better Week Than Joe Biden Did. 

 

“The plan, no doubt, was to have Joe Biden safely tucked away from the spotlight in a modified basement strategy, hiding behind the news of Trump being in court and finally having the walls close in on him.

 

The lawfare abuse was intended to distract from the fact that Joe Biden is the worst president in United States history.”

 

https://pjmedia.com/stephen-kruiser/2024/05/03/the-morning-briefing-donald-trump-had-a-better-week-than-joe-biden-did-n4928722

 

 

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[B-Man]

 

Will Joe go ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

Pew: Catholic Vote Swinging to Trump -- By Double Digits -- Over 'Devout' Biden

 

 

The poll found that 55% of Catholics support or lean towards supporting former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head against Biden.

Conversely, only 43% of Catholics support Biden in the same one-on-one pairing.

 

The 12% margin of support in favor of Trump marks a significant shift from 2020, when he held an extremely narrow lead — 50% to 49%.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/catholics-support-swings-trump-biden-significant-margin-poll

 

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[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

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[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

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[B-Man]

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

At this point, it doesn't make sense to focus on individual polls.

I'm more interested in looking at aggregate trends. And this Trump v. Biden race seems to be accelerating some of the political realignment trends we've seen starting to bubble up over the last eight years.

From fivethirtyeight:

- Overall, Trump +1.1. But there's a whopping 18 percent still "undecided" or supporting third party (mostly RFK Jr) candidates. That's kind of crazy when we have two candidates about as perfectly well known as anyone could be in national politics. I don't think anyone knows how that will resolve.

- The generic ballot: Dems +0.7. Not so good for them, but still (despite Biden dragging it down) essentially tied.

- Favorability/Approval: Biden - 18 percent, Trump -11. It really is true that we have a race with the two most unpopular candidates ever. That introduces even more uncertainty since we haven't seen this before.

 

As noted here, the realignment by age group seems real. There's a significant move of older people to Democrats, younger people to Republicans. (at least in the polls). Step back a minute and it kind of makes sense - older people tend to be "conservative" in a non-American politics sense, meaning they don't want to see radical change. They're at a stage in life where they value continuity (even stasis) over sharp change. And which party is the one that wants more radical change now? Republicans of the Trump variety. It is exactly the opposite of what I've seen in most of my adult life.

 

The realignment by sex also appears to have accelerated, and the issues that are most salient with men vs. women (particularly abortion rights) probably have a lot to do with this. 

 

As always (and as always disappoints me), it'll be turnout, turnout, turnout in November. Which side can energize it's somewhat altered base. Which side can get that 18 percent to swing to its side (and to actually turn out). I really don't think Trump's legal woes will have much impact, since that's already baked into the cake. Barring some kind of obvious health crisis, so is Biden's age.

 

I hate the choice the parties have given us, and I'm hardly alone. But I will vote, and a lot of people won't.

[B-Man]

 

 

The November elections are just a little less than six months away so anything could happen until that time, but from time to time it's interesting to look at a snapshot of how the race is shaping up.

 

President Biden did an interview this week on CNN that amazingly, though not surprisingly, contained almost one lie per minute. Also on that cable net was more bad news for the Biden campaign that also indicates the Left's haste to heap indictments on Trump continues to backfire on the Dems: 

 

https://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/05/11/biden-wh-wont-like-cnns-explanation-for-why-trump-is-in-a-much-better-position-than-4-years-ago-n2396129

[Big Blitz]

 

[4th&long]

16 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Bunch of dumb mother *****. Bottom of the barrel.

[B-Man]

 

 

Ron DeSantis reportedly plans to raise money for Donald Trump in Florida and Texas, AP sources say
actionnewsjax.com \ and Associated Press

 

DES MOINES, Iowa — Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is gearing up to lend a financial hand to former President Donald Trump, marking a significant shift in their political relationship, according to AP sources.

 

Two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on anonymity, disclosed that DeSantis is set to start fundraising efforts for Trump in the upcoming weeks, aligning with his pledge made during a recent meeting with the former president.

 

While the specifics of the fundraising initiatives are yet to be finalized and subject to potential alterations, DeSantis has already initiated outreach to donors. His finance team is reportedly crafting a schedule that will have stops in both Florida and Texas, according to the sources.

 

This move signals a notable political reconciliation between DeSantis and Trump, who had engaged in heated exchanges during the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race.

 

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/ron-desantis-reportedly-plans-raise-money-donald-trump-florida-texas-ap-sources-say/T3CT6YS4PBEHJABSJ2V7GFRQMA/

 

 

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[BillStime]

On 4/26/2024 at 2:25 PM, B-Man said:

Biden Answered Howard Stern's Question About Debating Trump ('His Handlers Must Be Furious!')

Yeah Bonnie - THEY MUST BE - lmao - idiots 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

Oh, we already know that.

 

 

 

[Biden is Mentally Fit]

On 5/1/2024 at 12:16 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm just saying that I've personally seen the incredible (and very short term) effects of a cortisone injection on someone with severe arthritis. High-dose Prednisone too. It just makes sense to me that the "energetic" Joe may have more to do with the timing of these typical old guy meds than with some extraordinary amphetamine thing as has been speculated about way too much.

Biden’s medical team queueing up shots of the popular stimulant CORTISONE as part of debate prep. Timing of old guy meds is everything in a situation like this. 
 

🤦🏽‍♂️🤦🏽‍♀️🤦🏽

[B-Man]

 

 

Robert Kennedy Is Crushing Ballot Access Expectations and Is Ready to Upend the 2024 Election.

 

https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/05/15/robert-kennedy-is-crushing-ballot-expectations-and-is-ready-to-upend-the-2024-election-n4929065#google_vignette

[Biden is Mentally Fit]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

"The Trump campaign believes it can capitalize on — or foment — a backlash to the leftward march of the Twin Cities and still-fresh memories..."

 

"... of the unrest after the killing of George Floyd. 'Very sad what’s happened to your state,' Mr. Trump told a newscaster on the conservative website Alpha News on Thursday, attacking Minneapolis’s progressive Representative Ilhan Omar as a 'hater,' promising 'mass deportations' and vowing 'to bring back the law enforcement the way it was' before Mr. Floyd’s murder. 'Your state is out of control, and it’s this radical left philosophy that cannot be left to continue.'

 

Recent polling has Mr. Biden clinging to a narrow lead in Minnesota, inside some polls’ margins of error. His tenuous position has been exacerbated by the war in Gaza. A protest campaign for 'uncommitted' in the Democratic presidential primary in March drew 19 percent.... Even Democrats in the state have their worries.... [Representative Dean Phillips, a Democrat who represents the affluent, educated suburbs west of Minneapolis that for years had voted Republican] said, 'I confess to have spoken to more people, and some remarkable people, who say they will vote for Trump. Many will, and many more than will admit it.'"

 

I'm reading "Trump Visits Minnesota, Hoping Its Political Divide Will Put It in Play/The Trump campaign says it can broaden the electoral battlefield with a play for Minnesota, but the state has disappointed Republicans for decades" (NYT).

 

 

 

Hoping to put it in play? Clearly, it is in play, and Trump is forcing Biden to defend.

 

Meanwhile, Biden must win all of the battleground states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — just to edge out Trump in the electoral college. Trump has so many more ways to win.

Posted by Ann Althouse 

 

https://althouse.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-trump-campaign-believes-it-can.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/politics/trump-minnesota.html?smid=url-share

 

 

 

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