Chris Simms Game Analysis: Defense not as bad as I thought + illusion of blitzing

[Thurman#1]

 

 

Re: Tannehill's very good play:  "He never leaves yards on the field, that's my thing about him, he maximizes opportunities to the maximum (sic) almost every week. And that's where he's really impressive. And last night, with that game, the stats and numbers aren't going to look like they're amazing, but as you break down the game, first off they were very fortunate to get the short field a few times. That set them up for some scoring.  ... But they were going to have to throw the ball to score some touchdowns and do that. Because Buffalo was selling out to stop the run."

 

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(6:20)  "What you don't really realize is the Bills defense really played a little bit better than I wanted to give them credit for when I turned off the TV last night. And then when I watched the film today, I go, 'There were some things that I really liked about what they did.' "

 

"They were put in some tough spots. They really were, by their offense and the punt return and all those type of things, but what I did like best is that they were not ... running game has been a little bit of an issue for them. They were not gashed in the running game. Now, did it compromise them in the pass game? Definitely. And am I still worried about that with Buffalo? Yes.

 

"I mean Buffalo kind of has kind of corner dysfunction."

 

Paul Burmeister:  "Especially without White."

 

"Right. And he's not there, it's a pretty average group, to where I worry about them. So we always talk about when a team does something elite, so it forces other teams into having to do something. And it forced Buffalo to have to put Josh Norman and Taron Johnson and those guys on islands against AJ Brown, and they're just not going to win those matchups."

 

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(12:10)  "The Titans defensive game plan was awesome, it really was. I can't say enough about it. They played coverage the whole night. They ran exotic zone coverages. Mike Vrabel obviously had a little bead on the offense. Again, this is a New England offense. Mike Vrabel's done pretty damn good against New England so far, he's 2-0 since he's been the coach of the Tennessee Titans. And stymied their offense both times. He stymied Buffalo's offense a little last year when Buffalo went down there and won a close game.

 

"And this is not how the Titans have been playing the first few games of the year. They've been playing a little more in-your-face, man-to-man, we're going to cover you and make you earn it. But I think he realized, "Woh, we're not going to match up with this group. We can't cover this group all over the field, with what they're doing. And not with this big sucker, 17, back there. 'Cause even if we do cover them, he buys time and people pop open and all of that.

 

"So very impressive from that standpoint with dropping people into coverage and the illusion of blitzing."

 

Paul Burmeister: "Which leads to that confusion that you want the quarterback to have for half a second."

 

"Half a second! ... Teams are over-blitzing. ... I'm gonna show you teams that blitz and they get gashed and then teams that play coverage right now are proving to be the better defenses. They are."

 

 

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"Really a very interesting look inside. Around 18:00 he talks about how the fake snap counts aren't just to try to draw guys Offside, but also to get the D to show who's blitzing, so the QB can then get them in the perfect play. He said that Vrabel appeared to have coached his guys that he'd rather see them start half a second late than to flinch early and give the whole defensive plan away. "They look like it's Cover Two and they don't flinch from Cover Two. Until "set hut," and the ball is snapped. And all of a sudden then it becomes Cover Three, or it becomes man-to-man with a robber in the middle, or whatever else. That is the ***** that confuses a quarterback for a split second.

 

"Or then the other thing we were talking about like, creative blitzes where it still ends up only being a four-man rush, where here's a nickel cover corner, where usually the nickel cover corner is told, "You're blitzing here, right?" They can't help it usually. So teh quarterback does the dummy snap count or even gets toward the end of the snap count and [the blitzer] is flinching because they can't wait to blitz. And Vrabel has told them, "Hey, you showing it and just being a split second faster is really ruining it. Don't do that.

 

"We want to surprise them so they're not schematically capable of doing it. And they're great at telling their corners and their blitzers, "Don't even flinch. Just look at your guy, and when the ball is snapped, I don't care if you get off the ball like a split second later than the guy who's told the whole world he's coming. We want to get there because they're not schematically ready for it."

 

"And that's how they got a lot of free runners last night on Josh Allen."

 

 

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They do a great little breakdown on what happened with the second INT also. Around 21:33. Says Butler duped him, faking a move up to cover Beasley on his break but then backs up. Says he thought Allen didn't read the body language the right way because he didn't put mustard on the throw, he thought that guy wasn't going to be there.

 

Also went nuts about the second TD to Yeldon and what an insane throw that was for Allen

 

And said the Titans weren't respecting Singletary, "Please, run it."

 

 

 

Great stuff.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Thurman#1

[CSBill]

Good analysis of the good analysis, Thurman.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

Good analysis of the good analysis, Thurman.

 

 

Hmm, maybe I need to go back and edit in quotation marks.

 

I didn't do any analysis, really. Just typing. But thanks. It took me quite a while to type it all up.

[machine gun kelly]

Thanks Thurmon.

[CSBill]

After watching it, I come away not feeling as bad about the game. It was clear the Bills were geared up on D to stop the run, which left an already depleted, and maybe not as good as we thought, linebacker and secondary groups very vulnerable. Tannehill did a great job of exploiting that.

 

And on offense, it was equally clear the Titans were not going to let the Bills receivers run deep and beat them with long pass plays. Okay, understand that and take the short stuff--which the Bills adjusted to in the 2nd half, but so many other things conspired to not allow that strategy to play out.

 

And as much as we don't want to think it, Simms is right, our running-backs have not been very good this year. I have always felt that Singletary is a better compliment back than featured back. Yeldon was the best Bills back on the field Tuesday. He deserves more snaps. And, yes, go after Bell !!!! Defenses will fear him more than anyone we currently have.

Edited October 15, 2020 by CSBill

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Looks in thread.  Sees no sign of krf139 trashing Simms.  Will check back later. 😁

[GunnerBill]

Was pretty much what I said on Tuesday night. We lost some 1 on 1s on the outside with AJ Brown. There is nothing we can do about that. We have one guy who might be able to cover Brown (and even that is not a given - AJ is already a top 5 or 6 route runner in the league IMO) and he wasn't out there on Tuesday. We did a reasonable job on Henry but we got play actioned to death - which has been a problem for us 4 weeks in a row now. We need Matt Milano healthy and we need Tremaine Edmunds to play better.

 

Oh and we also need not to give up 4 short fields and give up roughing the passer penalties when we have held a team to a FG on 3rd down.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

That's not Ahmed, it's Paul Bermeister. Good stuff thanks for posting!

 

I wonder if Derm and Frazier can learn a bit about disguising from watching Vrabel. I know we already disguise fairly well.

[dave mcbride]

This is awesome. Thanks.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

That's not Ahmed, it's Paul Bermeister. Good stuff thanks for posting!

 

I wonder if Derm and Frazier can learn a bit about disguising from watching Vrabel. I know we already disguise fairly well.

 

 

Doh!!! Thanks for the correction, I'll go back and change the original post.

[dave mcbride]

The stuff Simms says about blitzing strikes me as totally true. The fifth man-only blitzer is functionally useless and only gives the qb a free shot.

I never thought about it, but one of the reasons offenses are so dominant is that the qbs who can’t diagnoses blitzes are being run out of the league. Just about all of them are good at it now, and just about all of them understand tempo and getting lined up quickly to give themselves the time necessary to diagnose who is probably blitzing.

Edited October 15, 2020 by dave mcbride

[thebandit27]

This reinforces my opinion that the difference in the game was the 2nd INT. We score on that drive and it’s 21-17 with the ball on TEN 25 (presumably after a touchback) instead of 21-10 on the BUF 12.

[dave mcbride]

Man is Simms down the Bills’ RBs and running game in general. Indeed, after the game, McDermott basically said it was terrible that they couldn’t run better than they did against a D playing coverage/cover 2 all night. I wonder if we suffer from the illusion of Singletary being good rather than a mere change of pace back who is quick but not fast in space. There are a lot of negative plays with him and he is not fast enough to break really long runs. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Hmm, maybe I need to go back and edit in quotation marks.

 

I didn't do any analysis, really. Just typing. But thanks. It took me quite a while to type it all up.

 

You did a great summation.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Man is Simms down the Bills’ RBs and running game in general. Indeed, after the game, McDermott basically said it was terrible that they couldn’t run better than they did against a D playing coverage/cover 2 all night. I wonder if we suffer from the illusion of Singletary being good rather than a mere change of pace back who is quick but not fast in space. There are a lot of negative plays with him and he is not fast enough to break really long runs. 

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

[FireChans]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

Poooooooka

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Poooooooka

I actually wanted Darrynton Evans

[Hapless Bills Fan]

43 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

This reinforces my opinion that the difference in the game was the 2nd INT. We score on that drive and it’s 21-17 with the ball on TEN 25 (presumably after a touchback) instead of 21-10 on the BUF 12.

 

I don't think you can say one play was "the difference", though that's the backbreaker.

 

There were about 3 plays in the game that made a huge difference.  The deflection off Roberts for the INT/TD - eh, I wish Roberts hadn't have been there, but stuff happens.

We came right back and scored.  All good.

 

At the end of the first, the Bills D forced a 3 and out.  Offense then went 3 and out with an uncharacteristic drop by Diggs.  But giving up a 40 yd punt return to put the Titans close to scoring position on the Buffalo 30 was killer, and giving up a pass on 3rd and 20 to let them convert was awful.  They were backed up out of FG range.  At that point it's 14 to 7.  We got a FG on the ensuing drive.  Different game I think if we go into the half 14 to 10 or 17 to 10 vs 21-10

 

I don't think the Special Teams mistakes get enough "Love" around here.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

This is the reason why I wanted a speed back in the draft. Need someone to complement Motor with the skill set he doesn’t have.

Completely agree.  They drafted Moss to play the Gore role in the 2018 offense.  Those days are gone.  Speed back is huge priority.

[fergie's ire]

That "illusion of Blitzing" is something the Giants did well in the Super Bowl to prevent the Pats perfect season.  A lot gets made of them being able to bring pressure with 4 and some say that not many teams have the personnel to do that.  While that is partly true, and the Giants had great pass rushers, they also used that illusion of blitzing.  They ran some zone blitzes and just enough blitzes for the offense to look for it, and I remember seeing a lot of Patriot lineman blocking air...waiting for a blitz to come that didn't...while somewhere else along the line a rusher was getting to Brady.