GunnerBill Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 2:14 PM, Royale with Cheese said: So was Jimmy G legitimately benched or pulled because of his injury? Expand So I think they rushed him back. And they realised that with the second pick. He floated that ball because he didn't plant and drive on that ankle. And with the game already out of control it was the sensible thing to sit him. I don't think he should have started the game. The reason they started him is because they look up at the Rams and Seahwaks cantering away and panic is setting in early. 1
Royale with Cheese Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 2:25 PM, GunnerBill said: So I think they rushed him back. And they realised that with the second pick. He floated that ball because he didn't plant and drive on that ankle. And with the game already out of control it was the sensible thing to sit him. I don't think he should have started the game. The reason they started him is because they look up at the Rams and Seahwaks cantering away and panic is setting in early. Expand They are going to be an 8-8 team this year I think.
Rochesterfan Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 2:14 PM, Royale with Cheese said: So was Jimmy G legitimately benched or pulled because of his injury? Expand It seemed like a combination. I believe they knew he was not 100%, but thought he gave them the best chance to win and even as early in the season as it is - the 49ers knew they needed a win. I think they recognized his injury was causing him not to be able to plant and throw - so the injury had a huge part, but he was also legitimately bad. Without the injury - I imagine he does not get benched, but the combination made it the best option. 2
Bray Wyatt Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 (edited) On 10/12/2020 at 2:44 PM, Royale with Cheese said: Man, oh man. Expand I said this as soon I saw the play (that he should have gone to the right of the block), either way I think you sneak it there instead of hand it off if you are going to go for it Edited October 12, 2020 by Bray Wyatt 2
NewEra Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 2:29 PM, Royale with Cheese said: They are going to be an 8-8 team this year I think. Expand That might be true, but you can put much blame injuries. No team, imo, has been hit harder by injuries this year. They lost their best and most important player in Bosa, for the season. They lost 4 of their top corners for a good part of the first 5 games. They played yesterday with almost all practice squad guys playing corner. Witherspoon played some, but was clearly hurt. Jimmy g, Kittle, deebo, Aiyuk, Hurd, ansah, Mostert, Coleman all missed multiple games so far. They’re going down like dominos. Especially sucks for them because they play the AFC and nfc East this year and they may not even finish .500 2
mannc Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 1:51 PM, bobobonators said: My apologies. I was going by the post a few above mine that referenced that number. 🤷🏻♂️ “ESPN’s win probability model”; perhaps not analytics per se. Expand No, the 98% did not refer just to the chance of stopping Seattle from scoring a TD. It referred to Minnesota’s chance of either picking up the first down (in which case game over) or failing to pick it up then preventing a Seattle TD. 1
bobobonators Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:02 PM, mannc said: No, the 98% did not refer just to the chance of stopping Seattle from scoring a TD. It referred to Minnesota’s chance of either picking up the first down (in which case game over) or failing to pick it up then preventing a Seattle TD. Expand Gotcha. Thanks!
GunnerBill Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 2:58 PM, NewEra said: That might be true, but you can put much blame injuries. No team, imo, has been hit harder by injuries this year. They lost their best and most important player in Bosa, for the season. They lost 4 of their top corners for a good part of the first 5 games. They played yesterday with almost all practice squad guys playing corner. Witherspoon played some, but was clearly hurt. Jimmy g, Kittle, deebo, Aiyuk, Hurd, ansah, Mostert, Coleman all missed multiple games so far. They’re going down like dominos. Especially sucks for them because they play the AFC and nfc East this year and they may not even finish .500 Expand Agree. They are a team that could easily go 7-9 this year and bounce back and win 12 in 2021. 1
No_Matter_What Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:02 PM, mannc said: No, the 98% did not refer just to the chance of stopping Seattle from scoring a TD. It referred to Minnesota’s chance of either picking up the first down (in which case game over) or failing to pick it up then preventing a Seattle TD. Expand Still doesn't make much sense. What's the chance of converting 4&1? I'll try to find out later, but I guess maybe 80% max? And if it fails, I'd say Wilson had at least 30% to make that TD. For Minny to had 98% chances of converting that 4th down would have to be something like 94%+, which seems way off to me. So unless I am missing something I really don't get where those numbers are coming from.
prissythecat Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:26 PM, No_Matter_What said: Still doesn't make much sense. What's the chance of converting 4&1? I'll try to find out later, but I guess maybe 80% max? And if it fails, I'd say Wilson had at least 30% to make that TD. For Minny to had 98% chances of converting that 4th down would have to be something like 94%+, which seems way off to me. So unless I am missing something I really don't get where those numbers are coming from. Expand I saw from a Yale article that the conversion rate for 4th and 1 was around 65% as of 2015. If the rate is that low, trying to go for it rather than kicking a surer field goal with over 94% success rate was quite dumb. I wouldn't trust any winning percentage analysis at all in that situation.
Fan in Chicago Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:26 PM, No_Matter_What said: Still doesn't make much sense. What's the chance of converting 4&1? I'll try to find out later, but I guess maybe 80% max? And if it fails, I'd say Wilson had at least 30% to make that TD. For Minny to had 98% chances of converting that 4th down would have to be something like 94%+, which seems way off to me. So unless I am missing something I really don't get where those numbers are coming from. Expand Its really simple as you can add the probabilities of three sequential events e.g. 30% of converting + 60% Seattle not scoring a TD + 8% not making the 2 point conversion 😀
Chicken Boo Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:46 AM, Aussie Joe said: "People" like Beane and McD? Its tough to hit on them all.... I dont see anyone else doing that Expand The entire league and a lot of fans. It's mind boggling.
mannc Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 3:51 PM, prissythecat said: I saw from a Yale article that the conversion rate for 4th and 1 was around 65% as of 2015. If the rate is that low, trying to go for it rather than kicking a surer field goal with over 94% success rate was quite dumb. I wouldn't trust any winning percentage analysis at all in that situation. Expand That seems low, but I think It depends where on the field you are attempting it. I don't know exactly what the conversion rate is, but I'm sure it's significantly higher on 4th and 1 from the 20 than fourth and goal from the 1. Also, it goes up if you only need 1 foot instead of a full yard.
DallasMac Posted October 12, 2020 Posted October 12, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 12:45 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said: was just reading this on ESPN this morning: According to ESPN’s win-probability model, Zimmer’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 at the two-minute warning was a wash. The Vikings had a 98% chance to win by going for it and would have had a 97.8% chance to win had they elected to attempt a field goal. (So, we are probably all debating over nothing— except maybe the fact that it wasn’t a bad decision to go for it). Expand Said this yesterday. I dont think there was a wrong choice but i like that he went for it with the way they had been running the ball.
Saxum Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 On 10/12/2020 at 1:24 PM, wjag said: I know a lot is being made about the 4th and inches, but the reality is Minnesota has Seattle down to 4th down TWICE on that final drive and allowed a first down and then a TD. Stop the first one and the decision looks a whole lot better. Expand If Gregg Williams was DC Vikings would have won. He would have told CB "Sweep the Leg" once this became a long distance shoot out throwing to Metcalf. On 10/12/2020 at 7:21 PM, DallasMac said: Said this yesterday. I dont think there was a wrong choice but i like that he went for it with the way they had been running the ball. Expand Running ball is easier outside redzone where players get tighter. Vikings needed either a QB who can short distance up the middle plays or a player like Isaiah McKenzie.
DallasMac Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 On 10/13/2020 at 1:06 AM, Limeaid said: If Gregg Williams was DC Vikings would have won. He would have told CB "Sweep the Leg" once this became a long distance shoot out throwing to Metcalf. Running ball is easier outside redzone where players get tighter. Vikings needed either a QB who can short distance up the middle plays or a player like Isaiah McKenzie. Expand The run was there. He goes to the right and he probably scores. It was blocked fairly well.
BornAgainBillsFan Posted October 13, 2020 Posted October 13, 2020 Just a random thought about Trevor Lawrence. We need to start rooting for him to go to the Jets. It's the spot that can do us the least amount of damage, because his skills will begin to erode the second he lands in Jersey. Any other team in the league could become a juggernaut with this kid under center, but the Jets will find a way to destroy him in 3-4 years. Gase probably won't be there, since his purpose of getting Lawrence will have been fulfilled. But then maybe he can convince the idiot Johnson boys that their demise was all Darnold's fault. Isn't it fun to watch that train wreck?!
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