GoBills808 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: What you say is true, but I think Allen had something to do with some of the drops as well - he would just laser it in there all the time Instead of throwing with touch I think both Allen and his WR have adjusted He’s still throwing bullets like the TD to Beasley and the nonTD to Brown
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, GoBills808 said: He’s still throwing bullets like the TD to Beasley and the nonTD to Brown That’s what I mean by saying both he and his WR have adjusted. He’s learned to take something off at times and they’ve learned to handle the heat when he does sling it 3
GoBills808 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That’s what I mean by saying both he and his WR have adjusted. He’s learned to take something off at times and they’ve learned to handle the heat when he does sling it Kroft instead of knox has probably been good for a couple points of comp%
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Kroft instead of knox has probably been good for a couple points of comp% Unclear. His drops aren’t as awful, but Kroft still fails to haul in balls he should catch
GoBills808 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Unclear. His drops aren’t as awful, but Kroft still fails to haul in balls he should catch Very small sample sizes...however Kroft drop% as a Bill- 9.8% Knox drop% as a Bill- 15.6% also Davis has been a revelation
transplantbillsfan Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 Hilarious!!! I love reading The Ringer... humorous writing.
MJS Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 6 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: I will read it but I suspect that the "I can't admit I was wrong defense" is a phony, straw man argument that is making fun of others who seem to be truly entrenched on their chosen hill to defend. It has become some cultural sign of weakness to say that "now that I know more, I was wrong." Maybe the author is making fun of that notion by suggesting that it is not an option for him. The title implies that there is a self correction going on here. It seems like he is saying it because BILLS FANS won't let him. He will always get attacked for the negative things he said about Allen and no matter how many times he says good things, he'll always be seen as a detractor by Bills fans. It's a way to feel sorry for yourself and point out how unfair Bills fans are for continuing to criticize him. He's just being butt hurt and playing a martyr.
BringBackFlutie Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, BillsFanSD said: Agree 100%. This guy was super-raw coming out of college. He never played with or against big-time players and he never received NFL-pipeline coaching. If a player was going to come along to blow up the standard analytics model, it would be a guy like that. Sure, a guy who plays four years at Ohio State who shows mechanical flaws is very unlikely to fix those flaws in the NFL, but that's because he's played under coaches who surely noticed those flaws and tried unsuccessfully to fix them. That was never the case with Allen. NFL teams had every reason for optimism that they could succeed where Wyoming's coaches failed. Right. Even Beane said, from the beginning, that Allen hasn't got accuracy issues so much as decision-making issues that lead to bad reads, hurried throws, off footwork, etc. And, lo and behold, many of the analyst's videos posted on here the past few weeks have noted that there don't seem to be huge mechanical differences in Allen's game, so much as a sound understanding of the defense, where to go with the ball, and what the offense is trying to accomplish. Sure, he's worked on some mechanics (mostly consistency in them on easy throws), but those, along with his more mental hiccups, were teachable. At the end of it all, it was clear that he had the physical and mental skills, but needed time to learn. To me, the author's line of thinking is way too black and white (or narrow, like a lot of these stats guys). The question is not, "do stats no longer matter, or is Josh an anomaly?" The question is, "why didn't I evaluate far enough to understand that these stats were misleading?" 4 hours ago, HappyDays said: The problem isn't the pre-draft opinion, it's the inability for many of these analysts to admit he improved during his rookie season and continued taking significant steps last year. I don't think too many Bills fans expected this big a leap this year but it also wasn't outside the realm of possibility if you've been paying attention. 💯 Edited October 9, 2020 by BringBackFlutie 2
aceman_16 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 I did not care about the analysis. Many stat dudes said what they said based on their "methodology" - okay. However, when someone says Allen is a "parody of a qb" or he "is not poised, not accurate and can't play QB" or he "is an epic mistake" ALL before he ever stepped foot on an NFL field based on "numbers" is crap. Those statements are biased opinions and are just plain hurtful. IF they would have said "Allen's stats are...and it is hard to see that translating well in the pros" then okay but to smear the kid with asinine statements was brutal and just plain BS. 2
NoHuddleKelly12 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 7 hours ago, MJS said: Good article and all... I just don't like the "I'm not allowed to change my mind and Bills fans are unfairly mean to me!" passive-aggressive attitude. Just own that you were wrong and don't act so butt hurt that fans are giving you a hard time. For once you have been held accountable. Yeah, maybe it is unfair. But suck it up. That's what your line of work attracts. Also, I disagree that Allen is just an enigma this year. He showed signs of this from his rookie season. He has definately put it all together and his level of play is surprising, but analysts who don't like Allen will always point to those first to years as evidence that he was terrible, and it just isn't true. He had flashes of greatness all along, and he showed steady improvement and an uncanny ability to make weaknesses strengths before taking his big leap this year. This x 1000. From the 9/23/18 Leap Heard ‘Round the World in Minnie through today, the proof in the pudding as to his potential was always there to be seen if you wanted to, and glossed over if you didn’t care to.
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 9 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said: There is a good question posed here. Is Josh Allen a unicorn ( I prefer Roy Hobbs as a mythological analogy ) or should other teams in the NFL start looking for similar prospects to develop? If he is "one of a kind" then both sides can claim victory. The scouts can say they were right and he was a prospect with an unusual combination of QB traits and the numbers people can say that of the nearly 8 billion people on planet Earth, Josh is the only one that did not fit their predictive models. It would be better for us if this was true as the article said rather logically: "But Bills fans should probably hope that the second thing is more true, and that what’s happening with Allen is remarkable, irreplicable, and utterly unpredictable. Josh Allen seems to be special, and they got him. It’d be better for Buffalo if the rest of the league wasted valuable draft capital trying to find the next Josh Allen when in fact Josh Allen is the only person capable of doing the ridiculous things that Josh Allen is doing." I think a lesson to take from Allen is that if a kid has never ever received good quarterback coaching going back to his childhood then there might be some room to mold him.
RobbRiddick Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 That line "unfortunately, I'm locked in" seems to sum up a majority of the media - especially those who consider themselves experts on players pre-draft. I've heard so many of these guys in the last few weeks saying things like "Allen is playing well at the moment..." and you know they want to add "but it won't last". I think these guys must obsessively follow all our games now, waiting for the slightest mistake so they can pat themselves on the back and tell themselves they were right. I've noticed on some of the other forums I read that a lot of the amateur college experts have now changed their opinions to "lets see him win a playoff game" or "let's see him win a Super Bowl". I think there's something really pathetic about being so insecure at being wrong that you can't just stand up and admit it. It's quite funny to see.
Doc Brown Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 11 hours ago, Seasons1992 said: I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast.......he's a journalist first and he keeps his entire staff honest. He's building one of the greatest "new" media empires out there. Happy to see that trend continues with this article. The only podcast I listen to is the guess the lines podcast with Cousin Sal. Always entertaining.
Chandler#81 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 11 hours ago, mbs said: That was a fun read, but I think there's a third possibility that the author has missed. Allen wasn't simply less accurate. If he were, then his passes would follow a sort of normal distribution, but his didn't seem to. Setting aside too-narrow windows and bad drops, his misses were often just wild pitches, far worse than simply a bad throw. Imagine a shooter who hits bullseye half the time and misses the paper a third of the time. If you can explain the instances where the shooter is missing the paper, then you have a coach-able situation. If it's just a shotgun type pattern then experience can improve the situation but only so much. Allen had thousands of fewer reps than the big names and I suspect that the wild pitch/panic and bail instinct along with basic mechanics under pressure is an earlier problem to sort out with both coaching and experience than tweaking the position of your elbow or whatever. The former issues are rarely (if ever) a problem seen in big program college prospects. I think that is why old scout types understood the promise he had because they have been involved with actual players and have a more intensive understanding than the extensive view of the stats guys. Incidentally, the "all the throws/runs" video on Jackson was similar. Dimes and wooden nickles. Jackson's field vision and placement were so often crazy good or completely off. (looks like buffalo junction beat me to this, but I'm invested now.) Well written! Welcome!
eball Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 I enjoyed the article. I’ll admit, I hope Josh is a unicorn. I think he has a rare combination of physical and mental traits and life experience that has not and will never likely be duplicated. And we got him!
Billsfan1972 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 6 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Some of us made the argument last year that had the drop% been near league average his jump from year 1 to year 2 would have been more dramatic, and thus predicted a big year 3. The balls that Beasley and Brown are catching this year, they dropped last year. Diggs catches everything. Drops have had an outsize role in his career thus far and imo were very apparent in affecting Allen’s year 2 statistically-speaking. BTW Bills have 6 drops this year & near the top (probably 5 vs. the Raiders) Here's an interesting table.... https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm Yes at the top in terms of drops & drop %, take a look at other stats like on target & bad throws and as bad as people purport Josh Allen to be (and he was not great), he was not nearly as terrible as many purported him to be. In 2018 Yes Buffalo was the worst (and Allen was injured). 41 minutes ago, Doc Brown said: The only podcast I listen to is the guess the lines podcast with Cousin Sal. Always entertaining. He has a lot of very good guests (not all sports related) and enjoy many of his other stations & podcasts. If you love movies, The Rewatchables is outstanding, especially when they do some trashy movies. Their GOT, Succession & Billions TV show recaps too were very good. Not all Bills all the time, which is probably why I don't care who the Bills draft, just that they perform to their draft pick (& hopefully much better).
JMF2006 Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 11 hours ago, GoBills808 said: After reviewing the play the ruling of interception by the Rams player stands Thats right we can hate it but stands. I was one of the raw ability guys....he has all the tools he just needed to refine them. Its the intangibles that are off the charts since day one the kid is a warrior.
OrediggerPoke Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, Buffalo Junction said: What they missed is that Allen is not inherently inaccurate. They viewed him as such despite there being evidence that his issues were related to precision and technical breakdowns. Fixing those issues was possible because no a large DI program attempted to correct them.... Kid was basically high school raw Dumb take. Allen had QB coaching from a coach that put 4 QBs into the NFL. Allen received a ton of coaching and improved tremendously with his mechanics in college. But keep on with the myth if it helps your narrative. Edited October 9, 2020 by OrediggerPoke
mbs Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said: Well written! Welcome! Thank you. Long time listener. 12 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I hadn't read the thread before I posted. This says sort of what I said. It's a better explanation about why Allen's "inaccuracy" was more statistical than real. He just needed to understand more, learn more, get more experience. Nice for us. I'm honored. I have sought out your posts since the BBMB days.
Kwai San Posted October 9, 2020 Posted October 9, 2020 17 hours ago, Seasons1992 said: I listen to every Bill Simmons podcast.......he's a journalist first and he keeps his entire staff honest. He's building one of the greatest "new" media empires out there. Happy to see that trend continues with this article. I used to be a huge fan. Even tho his love for ANYTHING Boston/NE related I was still a fan. I was and still am a HUGE fan of his pioneering 30 for 30 shows. I got huge turned off when his head got too big to fit through the doorway when he had his success with the 30 for 30 so I have pretty much ignored him for the last few years. While the article in question isn't written by Simmons I am encouraged by the journalistic integrity that is summons. Might have to start listening to Simmons again!
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