Josh Allen Keeps Dunking On Me (article)

[Don Otreply]

3 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

 

There is a good question posed here.  Is Josh Allen a unicorn ( I prefer Roy Hobbs as a mythological analogy ) or should other teams in the NFL start looking for similar prospects to develop?  If he is "one of a kind" then both sides can claim victory.  The scouts can say they were right and he was a prospect with an unusual combination of QB traits and the numbers people can say that of the nearly 8 billion people on planet Earth, Josh is the only one that did not fit their predictive models.   It would be better for us if this was true as the article said rather logically:

 

"But Bills fans should probably hope that the second thing is more true, and that what’s happening with Allen is remarkable, irreplicable, and utterly unpredictable. Josh Allen seems to be special, and they got him. It’d be better for Buffalo if the rest of the league wasted valuable draft capital trying to find the next Josh Allen when in fact Josh Allen is the only person capable of doing the ridiculous things that Josh Allen is doing."

It doesn’t work that way for me, 

they were and still are wrong, and there are likely other Josh’s at various positions that get over looked every year, jmo.

 

 Go Bills!!!

[VW82]

I'd say Josh is a unicorn. NFL QB is too hard. If you're that raw you generally don't even get the chance. Josh was the perfect blend of bad coaching + not enough reps + drive to improve + world class athleticism. 

[TheElectricCompany]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You guys are merciless.  Does anyone not singing the platitudes of the Bills 24/7 do anything right?

 

Plenty of people were wrong about Josh, and many of those reasons were completely justified, even some of the cruel ones.  So what? Own it and move on, or laugh at yourself like the writer did.

 

I never could get past the NCAA and year 1-2 numbers, but I'm fully on the hype train now!

 

True story - last year at the Jim Kelly charity event, Josh came out towards the end for pictures and autographs. My wife and SIL rushed him and got great pictures with him, while I stayed back. Why? Because I didn't believe he had what it takes to be a star QB. These days,  I''d absolutely rush him for a picture, just need to finish my crow BBQ first!

Edited October 8, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[Virgil]

Great article that I think does a great job of summing up Josh's career from college to now. 

[HappyDays]

The problem isn't the pre-draft opinion, it's the inability for many of these analysts to admit he improved during his rookie season and continued taking significant steps last year. I don't think too many Bills fans expected this big a leap this year but it also wasn't outside the realm of possibility if you've been paying attention.

[fergie's ire]

1 hour ago, mbs said:

That was a fun read, but I think there's a third possibility that the author has missed.

 

Allen wasn't simply less accurate. If he were, then his passes would follow a sort of normal distribution, but his didn't seem to. Setting aside too-narrow windows and bad drops, his misses were often just wild pitches, far worse than simply a bad throw. Imagine a shooter who hits bullseye half the time and misses the paper a third of the time. If you can explain the instances where the shooter is missing the paper, then you have a coach-able situation. If it's just a shotgun type pattern then experience can improve the situation but only so much.

 

Allen had thousands of fewer reps than the big names and I suspect that the wild pitch/panic and bail instinct along with basic mechanics under pressure is an earlier problem to sort out with both coaching and experience than tweaking the position of your elbow or whatever. The former issues are rarely (if ever) a problem seen in big program college prospects. I think that is why old scout types understood the promise he had because they have been involved with actual players and have a more intensive understanding than the extensive view of the stats guys.

 

Incidentally, the "all the throws/runs" video on Jackson was similar. Dimes and wooden nickles. Jackson's field vision and placement were so often crazy good or completely off.

 

(looks like buffalo junction beat me to this, but I'm invested now.)

I agree completely.  The inaccurate label always bothered me for this reason and erratic seemed to be a better description.

[BillsFanSD]

43 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I'd say Josh is a unicorn. NFL QB is too hard. If you're that raw you generally don't even get the chance. Josh was the perfect blend of bad coaching + not enough reps + drive to improve + world class athleticism. 

Agree 100%.  This guy was super-raw coming out of college.  He never played with or against big-time players and he never received NFL-pipeline coaching.  If a player was going to come along to blow up the standard analytics model, it would be a guy like that.  Sure, a guy who plays four years at Ohio State who shows mechanical flaws is very unlikely to fix those flaws in the NFL, but that's because he's played under coaches who surely noticed those flaws and tried unsuccessfully to fix them. That was never the case with Allen.  NFL teams had every reason for optimism that they could succeed where Wyoming's coaches failed.

[BillsFanSD]

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

The problem isn't the pre-draft opinion, it's the inability for many of these analysts to admit he improved during his rookie season and continued taking significant steps last year. I don't think too many Bills fans expected this big a leap this year but it also wasn't outside the realm of possibility if you've been paying attention.

Year 1A (before injury): Mostly bad, except for the Minnesota game. Showed flashes, but mostly bad.

Year 1B (after coming back from injury): Huge step forward.  Looked like a totally different player.  Still below average, but fun to watch.

Year 2: Another huge step forward.  Won 10 games.  Made several teams look silly, and kept us in there against elite teams.

Year 3A (so far): Another huge step forward.  The guy is carrying this team, and we would be 1-3 without him.  Better weapons help, but Josh is playing lights out.

 

This month has been like a lucid dream.  2020 so far has been the absolute best possible don't-even-fantasize-about-this-because-you-know-it-won't-really-happen start to the season as far as the QB position goes.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

I'd say Josh is a unicorn. NFL QB is too hard. If you're that raw you generally don't even get the chance. Josh was the perfect blend of bad coaching + not enough reps + drive to improve + world class athleticism. 

 

Yeah.  Not bad coaching so much as a very late-bloomer physically with parents determined to keep their kids in the community and have them play all the sports rather than sending them away for better coaching and opportunities in HS/QB camps

 

But if I'm an NFL scout, I can't help wondering if there's one unicorn out there, does that mean there's a breeding herd somewhere?  'Cuz that's quite the advantage if you can find it.

 

There's also the point that perhaps unicorns have been brought into the league before, and have had their horns sawn off through bad NFL development.

 

20 minutes ago, BillsFanSD said:

Year 1A (before injury): Mostly bad, except for the Minnesota game. Showed flashes, but mostly bad.

Year 1B (after coming back from injury): Huge step forward.  Looked like a totally different player.  Still below average, but fun to watch.

Year 2: Another huge step forward.  Won 10 games.  Made several teams look silly, and kept us in there against elite teams.

Year 3A (so far): Another huge step forward.  The guy is carrying this team, and we would be 1-3 without him.  Better weapons help, but Josh is playing lights out.

 

This month has been like a lucid dream.  2020 so far has been the absolute best possible don't-even-fantasize-about-this-because-you-know-it-won't-really-happen start to the season as far as the QB position goes.

 

Me to Josh Allen: "You can be a Sweet Dream...or a Beautiful Nightmare...Either way I don't wanna wake up from you"

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, msw2112 said:

I agree with the previous post.  Two examples from his rookie year are the road throttling of Minnesota and the series of bombs to Robert Foster.  I think he had a fantastic game at Miami that season too, albeit in a loss (when Charles Clay had his hands on the winning TD at the goal line and couldn't hang on).  Allen didn't suddenly become great.  Like coach says, it's a process.

 

 

It is indeed a process, and in Allen's case a long one. But he absolutely did suddenly become great. He hit his tipping point. He's been improving consistently, but not being great except in short little flashes here and there. Now, suddenly he's terrific nearly all the time and is only showing short flashes of not being good. Did it come from consistent extreme effort and from trusting the process? Yeah. But it was absolutely sudden visible massive improvement.

 

A lot of the process is beavering away learning and improving various facets of whatever you are getting better at without visibly making huge leaps upwards. Then you reach a tipping point and you're doing significantly more right than wrong and when you hit that point, your improvement is suddenly visible and obvious. That's where Allen is at. Some guys never reach that point. 

 

Thank goodness Josh did.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

Great article that I think does a great job of summing up Josh's career from college to now. 

Someone get's it.

 

It was very good, self-deprecating and owned up to being wrong.

 

 

[ghostwriter]

It’s okay to be wrong... it’s not okay to dig your heels in after you realize you’re wrong..

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And that the Bills receivers continually dropped balls and never seemed to make a "difficult" catch.....  Oh and an offensive philosophy predicated keep the opponent under 20, limit mistakes,  time of possession and field position.

 

 

While that's true, it's also true that part of the reason there were a lot of drops is that Josh was rifling every ball in at mach speed, including the short ones. One of the major things he's done is develop touch so he's throwing balls much more catchably.

[boater]

Josh's ability to continually improve makes him the golden ticket.

 

He just gets better and better. It may sound trivial.. but self improvement is hard, and he's got it down pat.

 

Many players skate through with their God given athletic ability, and settle for that. Josh won't settle with his rifle arm, he wants the next step.

 

lol lol.. it doesn't hurt that he has a granite offensive line, and WR's like Beasly and Diggs who have velcro hands.

[Shaw66]

That's a nice article, with some interesting perspective.

 

I think there are a couple points he misses.  First, this nonstop "Allen-wasn't-accurate-in-college" narrative, was and is an over-reliance on stats.  I think it was clear, and the Bills and other teams figured it out, that Allen's low completion percentage wasn't because of massive mechanical limitations.  He could throw the ball very accurately; he just had a lot of things that made him inconsistent.   The Bills understood that once Allen got himself under control, accuracy would be less of a problem.  

 

Second, the conclusion says one of two things happened.  It says either the writer and others badly misjudged the ability of ANY quarterback to have dramatic improvement in QB efficiency, or it just turns out that Allen is a freak and defied prediction.   I think the truth is a combination of the two.   First, as I said, accuracy (and efficiency) weren't physical or mechanical problems; Allen just had some things to learn.  Second, yes, Allen IS a freak, but it isn't a surprise.  Scouts who saw him in college recognized hat his was freak.  People just didn't understand that what they perceived as incurable accuracy problems were in fact less significant than they thought.  

3 hours ago, mbs said:

That was a fun read, but I think there's a third possibility that the author has missed.

 

Allen wasn't simply less accurate. If he were, then his passes would follow a sort of normal distribution, but his didn't seem to. Setting aside too-narrow windows and bad drops, his misses were often just wild pitches, far worse than simply a bad throw. Imagine a shooter who hits bullseye half the time and misses the paper a third of the time. If you can explain the instances where the shooter is missing the paper, then you have a coach-able situation. If it's just a shotgun type pattern then experience can improve the situation but only so much.

 

Allen had thousands of fewer reps than the big names and I suspect that the wild pitch/panic and bail instinct along with basic mechanics under pressure is an earlier problem to sort out with both coaching and experience than tweaking the position of your elbow or whatever. The former issues are rarely (if ever) a problem seen in big program college prospects. I think that is why old scout types understood the promise he had because they have been involved with actual players and have a more intensive understanding than the extensive view of the stats guys.

 

Incidentally, the "all the throws/runs" video on Jackson was similar. Dimes and wooden nickles. Jackson's field vision and placement were so often crazy good or completely off.

 

(looks like buffalo junction beat me to this, but I'm invested now.)

I hadn't read the thread before I posted.  This says sort of what I said.  It's a better explanation about why Allen's "inaccuracy" was more statistical than real.  He just needed to understand more, learn more, get more experience.  Nice for us. 

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

Good article and all... I just don't like the "I'm not allowed to change my mind and Bills fans are unfairly mean to me!" passive-aggressive attitude.

 

Just own that you were wrong and don't act so butt hurt that fans are giving you a hard time. For once you have been held accountable.

 

These media folks are saying this just to wait for Allen to fail, so that they can go back to saying I told you so.  

[ganesh]

The biggest thing this article misses is the  Quarterbacks  *HEART* !!!    There is no metrics for it.    Josh Allen has plenty of it and the will to work through the difficulties. 

 

This is what made Brady such a great QB.   This is what made Brees come out of the cobwebs in San Diego.  This is what gives Russel Wilson every day a chance to be the best in Seattle.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

This is a good read. I think y'all will enjoy it.

Allen IS a spectacular anomaly, and he's ours!

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/8/21498755/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-breakout-season-qb-scouting

It’s unfortunate that as sportswriters we aren’t allowed to change our opinions about athletes. If we were, I would say that Josh Allen has become a shockingly effective quarterback and one of the most fun players in the NFL. Sadly, I am locked in. Before Allen was drafted in 2018, I wrote that “he does not seem especially good at playing football,” and now my name is Rodger “He Does Not Seem Especially Good at Playing Football” Sherman. If Allen leads the Bills to the Super Bowl, I will be obligated to say he still sucks. I will be buried with this take...

I’m not a draftnik, don’t dig too deeply about who might be right or wrong, and hope that whomever is selected pans  out as a good pick. 
 

My initial observation was that JA seemed like a good kid, earnest and sincere.  I read about his football smarts, work ethic, time at Wyoming and the like. 
 

After decades of futility and a lifetime of more solidly average Bills teams (or worse) and of course the Levy years, I never expect too much. 
 

The part above in bold print was where things began to change for me.  JA has been so frigging exciting to watch it’s been a blast.  I sorta gave up on any hope of SB greatness in my lifetime,  and just settled into watching the guy play football. 
 

Obviously, I hope for more but damn he’s fun to watch. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While that's true, it's also true that part of the reason there were a lot of drops is that Josh was rifling every ball in at mach speed, including the short ones. One of the major things he's done is develop touch so he's throwing balls much more catchably.

Some of us made the argument last year that had the drop% been near league average his jump from year 1 to year 2 would have been more dramatic, and thus predicted a big year 3. 
 

The balls that Beasley and Brown are catching this year, they dropped last year. Diggs catches everything. Drops have had an outsize role in his career thus far and imo were very apparent in affecting Allen’s year 2 statistically-speaking.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Some of us made the argument last year that had the drop% been near league average his jump from year 1 to year 2 would have been more dramatic, and thus predicted a big year 3. 
 

The balls that Beasley and Brown are catching this year, they dropped last year. Diggs catches everything. Drops have had an outsize role in his career thus far and imo were very apparent in affecting Allen’s year 2 statistically-speaking.

 

What you say is true, but I think Allen had something to do with some of the drops as well - he would just laser it in there all the time Instead of throwing with touch

I think both Allen and his WR have adjusted