Detailed Recap/Thoughts on the Titans 2020 Season So Far

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Hope everyone's keeping well and enjoying the Bills' 4-0 start as much as I am!

 

I have been living in the Bills-Titans game week thread this week and really hoping that this game can go ahead safely on Sunday. In the meantime, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Titans first three games/wins of 2020 based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still a combined 40 minutes of video). Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

September 15th- Week 1 Win AT Denver (23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense after Week 1, current record: 1-3) by a score of 16-14:

• Tannehill- 249 yards and 2 TDs. Any successful play in the passing game seemed to be a result of play-action. Threw a terrible pick on their first drive after halftime, but Denver committed an unnecessary roughness penalty prior to the INT so he got lucky. Had two passes batted down by old friend Jurrell Casey. 
• Derrick Henry- 116 yards and 3.7 YPC with 0 TDs. Was held in check for the most part.
• Corey Davis- seemed open a lot on crossing routes, helped Tennessee move the chains on 3rd down a few times. Looks like he has taken a step up this season. 
• Adam Humphries- made a number of clutch receptions to keep drives going. 
• Titans Run Defense- not winning at the LoS on the majority of plays. LBs looked slow. Melvin Gordon had 78 yards, 5.2 YPC, and a TD in his debut. Jeffrey Simmons beat his man and stuffed a 4th and goal attempt by Denver from the 1 yard line, huge game-changing play. 
• Titans Pass Defense- Kevin Byard made a great play punching the ball out of Melvin Gordon's hands on a screen pass and forcing a fumble in the first half. The secondary were giving big cushions to Denver's WRs and there were a lot of soft zones in coverage. Noah Fant and Denver's RBs were targeted a lot between the hashmarks with positive results.
• Gostkowski- had one FG blocked and missed 2 others. Missed an extra point as well. Hit a 25 yard game winning FG with seconds left. 
• Miscellaneous- Clowney had a QB hurry early in the game, but didn't seem to make a play after that and didn't play too many snaps. AJ Brown (in his only active game of the season so far) drew a big PI call late and had a couple catches, but didn't look as dangerous as last year. O-line only gave up 1 sack.

 

 

September 20th- Week 2 Win at Home vs Jacksonville (6th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense after Week 2, current record: 1-3) by a score of 33-30:

• Tannehill- very efficient in this game, his best of 2020. Just 239 yards but 75% CP and 4 TDs. Passing game seemed to mainly focus on Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. No AJ Brown in this one.
• Derrick Henry- just 84 yards and 3.4 YPC in this one. Jacksonville stacked the box and dared Tannehill to beat them which is a viable strategy I think, but that defense has lost so much talent and it showed. 
• Jonnu Smith- dominant on their opening drive and throughout the game (84 yards and 2 TDs). Did some damage against us last year and looks the part again in 2020. Milano should be able to cover him better than anyone Jacksonville assigned, but need him to be available/healthy for this game. Fingers crossed.
• Corey Davis- caught a TD and helped move the chains throughout the game.
• Titans Run Defense- gashed between the tackles by the rookies James Robinson (102 yards, 6.4 YPC, and 1 TD) and Laviska Shenault for some huge gains. 
• Titans Pass Defense- Minshew carved them up for 339 yards and 3 TDs. Huge turnover luck for Tennessee so far this year, benefitted from a tipped ball by a Jags WR on Fulton's INT in the first quarter and a Simmons' PD on a late game-clinching INT (good play but you see that ball hit the turf more times than not). Butler looks like a shell of the player he once was, got burned by Chark on numerous occasions. The Jags used a lot of crossing/drag routes (similar to what Buffalo has done this year) and it did not appear that Tennessee had an answer. The middle of the field was wide open all game. Kenny Vaccaro and Jack Crawford registered the first two sacks of the Titans' 2020 campaign.
• Gostkowski- missed an extra point, but hit a 50 yard FG as the first half expired. Then hit the game-winning FG from 49 yards out. Looks like he has turned it around.
• Miscellaneous- Clowney and Byard all but invisible in this game (Clowney pressured Minshew in the 4th quarter on one play where he was left unblocked). Tennessee seems to be doing a good job this season limiting their penalties. Also, the Tennessee O-line gave up just 1 sack.

 

 

September 27th - Week 3 Win AT Minnesota (23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense after Week 3, current record: 1-3) by a score of 31-30:

• Titans Offense- continually stalled out in or near the red zone and settled for SIX field goals. They leaned on Henry and the kicking game in this one, but hit on the few deep passes they rang up. No AJ Brown in this game. The O-line only gave up 2 sacks, continuing their strong pass protection throughout this early part of the season.
• Tannehill- still looks mobile/athletic and can run (expect to hear on the broadcast that he used to play WR 837468364 times lol). Had some nice throws, but had a lot of negative plays as well (botched snap that cost 20 yards on a 3rd down play, terrible INT into double coverage, a near INT at the end that would have cost them the game). Wound up leading an impressive 4th quarter comeback drive that led to the winning FG. 
• Derrick Henry- 119 yards, 4.6 YPC, and 2 TDs. Hard to bring down and looked unstoppable in goal-line situations vs the Vikings. His best game of the season. 
• Adam Humphries- likely out/on the COVID list. A big loss for this offense, looks like he has settled in (2nd year with the Titans) and become Tannehill's safety valve/option on 3rd down.
• Kalif Raymond- made two excellent catches on 40+ yard and 60+ yard bombs from Tannehill. Not a player I was familiar with before tonight, but looks like he has good speed/hands and is able to track the ball effectively.
• Jeffrey Simmons- also expected out/on the COVID list. Sacked Cousins and pressured him on a number of other drop backs. Jumped off the screen more than any other Titans defensive player.
• Titans Run Defense- struggled particularly on pitches and outside runs. Dalvin Cook did whatever he wanted whenever he wanted (181 yards , 8.2 YPC, and a TD). Cook did fumble once, but it looked like he was barely touched. 
• Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Joseph- Justin Jefferson feasted on these two whenever Cousins threw his way. 7 catches for 175 yards and a TD. Kid looks like a good one...our WRs should win these matchups based on what I saw. Joseph did have a pick-6 on a terrible Cousins throw while under pressure (Tennessee used the double A gap blitz that we like to run with Edmunds and Milano sometimes).
• Gostkowski- since his nightmare game in Week 1, he has rebounded in a huge way hitting multiple 50+ yard kicks and being a lot more accurate. Made a career-high 6 FGs including the game-winner (3 in a row!).
• Miscellaneous- Clowney and Byard were pretty much invisible to my eye again based on these highlights, was expecting to see a lot more from them. Kristian Fulton had a huge sack late in the 4th quarter and looks to have played fairly well given that he's a rookie with no pre-season, but he is also expected out/on the COVID list.

 

 

October 11th - Week 4 Tennessee Titans (current record: 3-0, 13rd ranked offense and 18th ranked defense after Week 4) at Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 4-0, 5th ranked offense and 22nd ranked defense after Week 4)

• On Offense- we can/should move the ball on the ground AND through the air successfully this week. The Titans defense boasts some big names on paper, but they've looked rusty and slow through the first 3 games against some middling offenses. While Clowney hasn't made a significant impact yet, I think he and Byard are the two players I'd want to watch out for. Diggs should have his way with either Butler or Joseph and this could be a big game for Beasley and the TEs as well (Tennessee struggled to cover slot guys/TEs/anyone in the middle of the field in previous games). If Daboll and Allen can execute the way they have in the first 4 games, we should put up 30+ points again. 

 

• On Defense- a game plan similar to what we employed against the Raiders (hopefully with better execution than we showed in the first half) would be successful here. Stack the box and bracket Jonnu Smith where possible (or just Milano if he's ok). Put White on AJ Brown if he returns or Corey Davis (who's having his best season based on what I saw). Force Tannehill to beat you with his arm and make Tennessee settle for field goals as they have done all year. Tennessee has done a great job of keeping their QB clean so far (only 4 sacks allowed), but hopefully we can bring pressure and cause some mistakes like we did vs Carr last week. 

 

Alright cheers guys, I enjoyed putting this together and it could be something I can continue each week moving forward (I don't have anywhere near the street cred of @Virgil around here, but I love those post-game thoughts and maybe this can be a pre-game version of sorts). Hopefully our Bills can keep this momentum going and get out of Nashville 5-0 and healthy as well. All the best and Go Bills!

 

 

[Haslett_Stomp]

Nice writeup, thanks for taking the time to put this together!  I look forward to more of these in the future.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Haslett_Stomp

[Rc2catch]

I think stuff like this is great, really helps some posters who don’t normally pay attention to other teams. If they take the time to read it. Well done 

[IgotBILLStopay]

On the plus side - their prep has been disrupted a bit and many of their players are sitting out - mainly Jeffrey Simmons.

On the minus side - their coaches got an extra week to prep and they are well rested.

 

Defense: Our run defense showed up in the second half of the Raiders game. That gives me hope since containing Henry is the key. Tannehill is  the modern Tyrod Taylor - good game manager - few mistakes - he wont lose the game but he wont win it by himself either. But they will try to control the clock. Defense conditioning can play a role.

 

Offense: The will miss Simmons, who was on a tear. Our tackles should be be extra-wary of Clowney since he can really disrupt things. I like our WR corps against their DBs. A lot. 

 

Bottomline - Dont lose the turnover battle and this will be a relatively easy win.  Major objective besides the win - Keep Allen safe.

 

 

[whatdrought]

This is good. I watched part of the Broncos game, but have no real idea who the titans are other than my suspicion that they aren't much like last years late season team... 

[Augie]

Much of what we read here is what already happened, stuff we watched. I appreciate the forward looking view so I have a better idea of what to expect. I don’t do fantasy or watch as much non-Bills football as I used to, so this helps with expectations. 

 

Late in the season this will become burdensome for you and the reader. Maybe keep it to the last 4 weeks with a little season summary? Most recent is most relevant. 

 

Go Bills! Win in Nashville! 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

 

Are these the rankings of Tenn or the team they played each week??

 

Example:

23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense

 

 

To me the question is which defense shows up, the one they played the 2nd half of the Raiders game or the one who played the 2nd half of the 1st three games.  If we can have the Raiders defense all game, think we should be in good shape.  I'm mostly worried about Henry much more than their passing game.

 

Are the ten players for Tenn who tested positive all out for this game?  Were they all placed on the Covid IR list and does that mean they are out for three weeks?

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Are these the rankings of Tenn or the team they played each week??

 

Example:

23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense

 

 

To me the question is which defense shows up, the one they played the 2nd half of the Raiders game or the one who played the 2nd half of the 1st three games.  If we can have the Raiders defense all game, think we should be in good shape.  I'm mostly worried about Henry much more than their passing game.

 

Are the ten players for Tenn who tested positive all out for this game?  Were they all placed on the Covid IR list and does that mean they are out for three weeks?

Those are the rankings of Tennessee's opponent each week immediately after that particular game (rather than their ranks now which I think is less relevant). Football Outsiders calculates their stats the Tuesday after each game week I believe. 

 

Agreed on your second point. The key to everything on defense is shutting down Henry because most of what they do in the pass game is play action.

 

As for your last question, I don't think we really know 100%, but Vrabel did a press conference or call today where it sounded like everyone on the list will miss the game. I believe Yolo posted more specific details in the game week thread. 👍

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 minute ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Those are the rankings of Tennessee's opponent each week immediately after that particular game (rather than their ranks now which I think is less relevant). Football Outsiders calculates their stats the Tuesday after each game week I believe. 

 

Agreed on your second point. The key to everything on defense is shutting down Henry because most of what they do in the pass game is play action.

 

As for your last question, I don't think we really know 100%, but Vrabel did a press conference or call today where it sounded like everyone on the list will miss the game. I believe Yolo posted more specific details in the game week thread. 👍

 

After I posted looked at your post again, figured they must have been the opponent based on how much they changed each week.

 

Thanks!

[Utah John]

This is a big game for postseason seeding.  The Titans have been squeaking by, but the Bills haven't completely dominated any opponent either. The best indicator is that the Bills beat the Rams and Raiders, two teams that are much better than any the Titans have beaten.

 

So if the Bills win, the Titans fans will grouse that the players out with covid could have made the difference.  Well, grouse away, guys.  One team gets its first loss of the year, and I don't think this year's Bills will fall into the trap of taking a team lightly.

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, Utah John said:

This is a big game for postseason seeding.  The Titans have been squeaking by, but the Bills haven't completely dominated any opponent either. The best indicator is that the Bills beat the Rams and Raiders, two teams that are much better than any the Titans have beaten.

 

So if the Bills win, the Titans fans will grouse that the players out with covid could have made the difference.  Well, grouse away, guys.  One team gets its first loss of the year, and I don't think this year's Bills will fall into the trap of taking a team lightly.

 

The funny thing is, we really haven’t played a great game so far, despite the 4-0 record. We’ve had great stretches, but not a great game. Let’s put it all together in Nashville! 

 

Again, a nice preview in the right format could be helpful to much of the board. The format may get tweaked as time goes by, but that's true of most good things. 

[Da webster guy]

Good original post.  Very interesting.

 

It's hard reading through that to get a sense of how our defense will do against these guys because we're so inconsistent with stopping the run.

I feel like Josh and the O are going to move on most teams pretty well, but the defense.....yikes.

 

This season is going to be one of development on defense.  Can JNorman, Ed Oliver, Harrison Philips, Jefferson all just dial up a monster year for us please?

We aren't making blockbuster trades mid-season, we are riding with these guys.  We have 2 oldies but goodies at DE in Hughes and Addison, and they're solid but not spectacular thus far.

 

Harrison and Norman had great games and they're both rusty.   Probably our biggest 2 guys on defense last week.

 

We have depth at Dline and after that we're relying heavily on our fairly thin roster to formulate a superbowl quality defense in the next 3 months. 

McD and Frasier are being put to the test now, they always seem to get things ironed out as the season rolls on, lets hope it happens again.

 

 

[Lazy]

Very Good Synopsis. Keep them coming.

Don't like Milano being out. He would probably thrive against this team.

[NewEra]

Thanks for taking the time to put this together.  Good stuff here. 👍🏻👍🏻

[Coffeesforclosers]

5 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Hope everyone's keeping well and enjoying the Bills' 4-0 start as much as I am!

 

I have been living in the Bills-Titans game week thread this week and really hoping that this game can go ahead safely on Sunday. In the meantime, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Titans first three games/wins of 2020 based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still a combined 40 minutes of video). Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings

 

September 15th- Week 1 Win AT Denver (23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense after Week 1, current record: 1-3) by a score of 16-14:

• Tannehill- 249 yards and 2 TDs. Any successful play in the passing game seemed to be a result of play-action. Threw a terrible pick on their first drive after halftime, but Denver committed an unnecessary roughness penalty prior to the INT so he got lucky. Had two passes batted down by old friend Jurrell Casey. 
• Derrick Henry- 116 yards and 3.7 YPC with 0 TDs. Was held in check for the most part.
• Corey Davis- seemed open a lot on crossing routes, helped Tennessee move the chains on 3rd down a few times. Looks like he has taken a step up this season. 
• Adam Humphries- made a number of clutch receptions to keep drives going. 
• Titans Run Defense- not winning at the LoS on the majority of plays. LBs looked slow. Melvin Gordon had 78 yards, 5.2 YPC, and a TD in his debut. Jeffrey Simmons beat his man and stuffed a 4th and goal attempt by Denver from the 1 yard line, huge game-changing play. 
• Titans Pass Defense- Kevin Byard made a great play punching the ball out of Melvin Gordon's hands on a screen pass and forcing a fumble in the first half. The secondary were giving big cushions to Denver's WRs and there were a lot of soft zones in coverage. Noah Fant and Denver's RBs were targeted a lot between the hashmarks with positive results.
• Gostkowski- had one FG blocked and missed 2 others. Missed an extra point as well. Hit a 25 yard game winning FG with seconds left. 
• Miscellaneous- Clowney had a QB hurry early in the game, but didn't seem to make a play after that and didn't play too many snaps. AJ Brown (in his only active game of the season so far) drew a big PI call late and had a couple catches, but didn't look as dangerous as last year. O-line only gave up 1 sack.

 

 

September 20th- Week 2 Win at Home vs Jacksonville (6th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense after Week 2, current record: 1-3) by a score of 33-30:

• Tannehill- very efficient in this game, his best of 2020. Just 239 yards but 75% CP and 4 TDs. Passing game seemed to mainly focus on Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. No AJ Brown in this one.
• Derrick Henry- just 84 yards and 3.4 YPC in this one. Jacksonville stacked the box and dared Tannehill to beat them which is a viable strategy I think, but that defense has lost so much talent and it showed. 
• Jonnu Smith- dominant on their opening drive and throughout the game (84 yards and 2 TDs). Did some damage against us last year and looks the part again in 2020. Milano should be able to cover him better than anyone Jacksonville assigned, but need him to be available/healthy for this game. Fingers crossed.
• Corey Davis- caught a TD and helped move the chains throughout the game.
• Titans Run Defense- gashed between the tackles by the rookies James Robinson (102 yards, 6.4 YPC, and 1 TD) and Laviska Shenault for some huge gains. 
• Titans Pass Defense- Minshew carved them up for 339 yards and 3 TDs. Huge turnover luck for Tennessee so far this year, benefitted from a tipped ball by a Jags WR on Fulton's INT in the first quarter and a Simmons' PD on a late game-clinching INT (good play but you see that ball hit the turf more times than not). Butler looks like a shell of the player he once was, got burned by Chark on numerous occasions. The Jags used a lot of crossing/drag routes (similar to what Buffalo has done this year) and it did not appear that Tennessee had an answer. The middle of the field was wide open all game. Kenny Vaccaro and Jack Crawford registered the first two sacks of the Titans' 2020 campaign.
• Gostkowski- missed an extra point, but hit a 50 yard FG as the first half expired. Then hit the game-winning FG from 49 yards out. Looks like he has turned it around.
• Miscellaneous- Clowney and Byard all but invisible in this game (Clowney pressured Minshew in the 4th quarter on one play where he was left unblocked). Tennessee seems to be doing a good job this season limiting their penalties. Also, the Tennessee O-line gave up just 1 sack.

 

 

September 27th - Week 3 Win AT Minnesota (23rd ranked offense and 19th ranked defense after Week 3, current record: 1-3) by a score of 31-30:

• Titans Offense- continually stalled out in or near the red zone and settled for SIX field goals. They leaned on Henry and the kicking game in this one, but hit on the few deep passes they rang up. No AJ Brown in this game. The O-line only gave up 2 sacks, continuing their strong pass protection throughout this early part of the season.
• Tannehill- still looks mobile/athletic and can run (expect to hear on the broadcast that he used to play WR 837468364 times lol). Had some nice throws, but had a lot of negative plays as well (botched snap that cost 20 yards on a 3rd down play, terrible INT into double coverage, a near INT at the end that would have cost them the game). Wound up leading an impressive 4th quarter comeback drive that led to the winning FG. 
• Derrick Henry- 119 yards, 4.6 YPC, and 2 TDs. Hard to bring down and looked unstoppable in goal-line situations vs the Vikings. His best game of the season. 
• Adam Humphries- likely out/on the COVID list. A big loss for this offense, looks like he has settled in (2nd year with the Titans) and become Tannehill's safety valve/option on 3rd down.
• Kalif Raymond- made two excellent catches on 40+ yard and 60+ yard bombs from Tannehill. Not a player I was familiar with before tonight, but looks like he has good speed/hands and is able to track the ball effectively.
• Jeffrey Simmons- also expected out/on the COVID list. Sacked Cousins and pressured him on a number of other drop backs. Jumped off the screen more than any other Titans defensive player.
• Titans Run Defense- struggled particularly on pitches and outside runs. Dalvin Cook did whatever he wanted whenever he wanted (181 yards , 8.2 YPC, and a TD). Cook did fumble once, but it looked like he was barely touched. 
• Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Joseph- Justin Jefferson feasted on these two whenever Cousins threw his way. 7 catches for 175 yards and a TD. Kid looks like a good one...our WRs should win these matchups based on what I saw. Joseph did have a pick-6 on a terrible Cousins throw while under pressure (Tennessee used the double A gap blitz that we like to run with Edmunds and Milano sometimes).
• Gostkowski- since his nightmare game in Week 1, he has rebounded in a huge way hitting multiple 50+ yard kicks and being a lot more accurate. Made a career-high 6 FGs including the game-winner (3 in a row!).
• Miscellaneous- Clowney and Byard were pretty much invisible to my eye again based on these highlights, was expecting to see a lot more from them. Kristian Fulton had a huge sack late in the 4th quarter and looks to have played fairly well given that he's a rookie with no pre-season, but he is also expected out/on the COVID list.

 

 

October 11th - Week 4 Tennessee Titans (current record: 3-0, 13rd ranked offense and 18th ranked defense after Week 4) at Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 4-0, 5th ranked offense and 22nd ranked defense after Week 4)

• On Offense- we can/should move the ball on the ground AND through the air successfully this week. The Titans defense boasts some big names on paper, but they've looked rusty and slow through the first 3 games against some middling offenses. While Clowney hasn't made a significant impact yet, I think he and Byard are the two players I'd want to watch out for. Diggs should have his way with either Butler or Joseph and this could be a big game for Beasley and the TEs as well (Tennessee struggled to cover slot guys/TEs/anyone in the middle of the field in previous games). If Daboll and Allen can execute the way they have in the first 4 games, we should put up 30+ points again. 

 

• On Defense- a game plan similar to what we employed against the Raiders (hopefully with better execution than we showed in the first half) would be successful here. Stack the box and bracket Jonnu Smith where possible (or just Milano if he's ok). Put White on AJ Brown if he returns or Corey Davis (who's having his best season based on what I saw). Force Tannehill to beat you with his arm and make Tennessee settle for field goals as they have done all year. Tennessee has done a great job of keeping their QB clean so far (only 4 sacks allowed), but hopefully we can bring pressure and cause some mistakes like we did vs Carr last week. 

 

Alright cheers guys, I enjoyed putting this together and it could be something I can continue each week moving forward (I don't have anywhere near the street cred of @Virgil around here, but I love those post-game thoughts and maybe this can be a pre-game version of sorts). Hopefully our Bills can keep this momentum going and get out of Nashville 5-0 and healthy as well. All the best and Go Bills!

 

 

 

This is great stuff, and if you want to get into film study/analysis, watch all you can from guys at Cover 1 on Youtube.  The Bills are absolutely spoiled when it comes to fan-driven, Xs and Os type content.  Don't think you've got to reinvent the wheel!

[CSBill]

Don't Stop Billeiving, don't stop contributing! Very well presented and informative. I think it is a good addition to the TBD line-up. Thanks for putting it together.

[Gugny]

This is a great read and I appreciate the time and work you put into it.

 

Go Bills!

[Kwai San]

This was great - thanks!  I can't even begin to imagine the work/research that went into this.

 

Thanks again!

 

Go BILLS!

[r00tabaga]

Read every word. Very well put together. I would encourage this going fwd 👍 

 

Thx!

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Forget everything you read here I guess lol. I'll have to go back and review the tape on their back ups from pre-season...2019 preseason.

 

What a year we're having. 

 

Hope the NFL does the right thing here and punishes the Titans effectively first and foremost for putting the whole league in jeopardy and then either we play what's left of their team safely (is this even possible at this stage?) this weekend OR get the forfeit W (and one for Pittsburgh) and we can rest up for the Chiefs. Try really hard not to screw this up Goodell!