Matt_In_NH Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. 12 2
BuffAlone Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, mattynh said: I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. I thought the same thing. If ever the analytics say go for 2, that(I imagine) would be the time to do it 1
SinceThe70s Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 I was thinking the same exact thing - before they missed the extra point. 2
JMF2006 Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 I thought of that too but figured if they don't make it then the Prates get a little mo going their way. Besides I am all for saving the two point plays for when they really need them Besides Bassmaster needs the practice. He needs to get over this wide right thing He needs to get rid of the fade and work on his draw
Mark80 Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, mattynh said: I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. The chances of converting the 2-pt conversion is much less than the chances of converting PAT to tie it. Since the 2pt conversion rate league wide is slightly below 50%, it makes more sense for us to kick the PAT and go up 8 since it would be less than a 50% chance we would convert (on average league wide) and also a less than 50% change they would convert to tie if they were down 8. Earlier in the game it could be argued to always go for 2pts since the expected points per attempt on average are slightly higher than that of PATs league wide. 1
ehfeuh57 Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) I actually did announce to my viewing party to go for 2 at that moment. the only downside is that if you miss, the other team will likely go for 2 out of spite if they score at the end of the game...and beat you. Edited October 5, 2020 by DrDare 1
Rochesterfan Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 33 minutes ago, mattynh said: I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. I really don’t care either way. The 2 point conversion rate is barely over 50% and some teams (Steelers/Eagles) have really driven up the conversion rate - for everyone else it is closer to 40 -45%. I get the 9 points would be nice and would enhance you win percentage, but chasing points is usually a bad thing. I have no issue with trying to push the deal. A converted 2 point play increases you win percentage and a failed 2 point conversion brings a tie and a loss back into play. The standard extra point gives you 8 points - which takes a loss totally out of play and means the Raiders are chasing points just to tie. Either way at the start of the 4th quarter - there is a lot of game left to be played - the decision either way is fine because both teams are going to have multiple possessions going forward. Edited October 5, 2020 by Rochesterfan 2 1
PromoTheRobot Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 Tyler Bass is a terrible fantasy kicker. Not because he misses kicks but because the Bills kick nothing but extra points. 1 1
Kirby Jackson Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 42 minutes ago, mattynh said: I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. I was screaming for this at the time. This is EXACTLY how I feel. It’s weird that “football guys“ haven’t come around to this yet. There is minimal downside and a lot of upside. I’m not an “always go for 2” guy but this is an interesting read: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/30/21112250/two-point-conversion-percentage-stats-success-rate-extra-point-nfl-dorktown Edited October 5, 2020 by Kirby Jackson 1
Casey D Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: I was screaming for this at the time. This is EXACTLY how I feel. It’s weird that “football guys“ haven’t come around to this yet. There is minimal downside and a lot of upside. I’m not an “always go for 2” guy but this is an interesting read: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nfl/2020/1/30/21112250/two-point-conversion-percentage-stats-success-rate-extra-point-nfl-dorktown I don't agree. The extra point makes it an 8 point game, so you get two chances to stay ahead-- prevent a TD and prevent the 2-point conversion. It's a 50-50% chance, and I'd rather force the other team to do that, because worse case scenario you are tied and have the ball. I definitely see how you feel, and thought about it at the time but thought the Bills made the right call. But of course Bass missed the PAT so....
Kirby Jackson Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, Casey D said: I don't agree. The extra point makes it an 8 point game, so you get two chances to stay ahead-- prevent a TD and prevent the 2-point conversion. It's a 50-50% chance, and I'd rather force the other team to do that, because worse case scenario you are tied and have the ball. I definitely see how you feel, and thought about it at the time but thought the Bills made the right call. But of course Bass missed the PAT so.... If you go for 2 you can make it two possessions. If you miss, they are only going to go for 1 to tie it anyways. It’s house money at that point imo. 3
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, SinceThe70s said: I was thinking the same exact thing - before they missed the extra point. Missing the xp made me feel like it was karma for the dumb call to kick it. 2
YattaOkasan Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, DrDare said: I actually did announce to my viewing party to go for 2 at that moment. the only downside is that if you miss, the other team will likely go for 2 out of spite if they score at the end of the game...and beat you. I dont see how spite would come into it all. Very certain down 1 a home team would go the PAT and not 2. Unless they thought they had no business being in the game which I dont think yesterday was. You go up 2 possessions if you convert (offense has been cooking) and failing I dont think it brings a loss anymore into the equation as almost any HC is gonna kick a PAT. Hell if you convert the first one and youre up 9, do you do it again when youre up 15 after the Diggs bomb??? (I say yes).
ILBillsfan Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 This defies logic...going for two with the lead at that point in the game. You kick the XP and go up seven so that you force the other team to now need to score the TD and then to successfully execute the XP as well.
YattaOkasan Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 Just now, ILBillsfan said: This defies logic...going for two with the lead at that point in the game. You kick the XP and go up seven so that you force the other team to now need to score the TD and then to successfully execute the XP as well. we were up 7 and had a choice of PAT or go for 2. I think you are misunderstanding the situation. PAT would make us up 8. 2 pt would be up 9 which is 2 possessions. 1
Doc Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 2 hours ago, mattynh said: I have not seen this discussed much. The Bills scored at the beginning of the 4th to go up by 7 points, 23-16. A 2 point conversion makes it a sure 2 possession game. Hit the XP and if the Raiders score they go for 2 to tie, if you miss the XP and the Raiders score they go with the XP to tie... A minor nit in the grand scheme of things this year but I see no argument to not go for 2 there. I agree with you. The same thing happened last night in the 49ers-Eagles game.
Just Joshin' Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said: I really don’t care either way. The 2 point conversion rate is barely over 50% and some teams (Steelers/Eagles) have really driven up the conversion rate - for everyone else it is closer to 40 -45%. I get the 9 points would be nice and would enhance you win percentage, but chasing points is usually a bad thing. I have no issue with trying to push the deal. A converted 2 point play increases you win percentage and a failed 2 point conversion brings a tie and a loss back into play. The standard extra point gives you 8 points - which takes a loss totally out of play and means the Raiders are chasing points just to tie. Either way at the start of the 4th quarter - there is a lot of game left to be played - the decision either way is fine because both teams are going to have multiple possessions going forward. Thanks for the correct analysis - saves me writing it up. 8 sure points is better than 50/50 shot at 9. It is harder for the Raiders to tie at 8 than 7. Now if the probability of the 2 points is higher than 50%, then go for it. Very situational and the decision could go either way but I would take the eight. The fact that Bass missed it does not make it a bad decision.
Wroughting Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) I thought the same thing at the time, make it a two score game. I think the 50/50 stat could be misleading since probably quite a few attempts are made by bad teams that are losing. If your odds are even slightly higher than 50% it makes sense to go for two as it would mean more points in the long run. Edited October 5, 2020 by Wroughting
Bray Wyatt Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said: Thanks for the correct analysis - saves me writing it up. 8 sure points is better than 50/50 shot at 9. It is harder for the Raiders to tie at 8 than 7. Now if the probability of the 2 points is higher than 50%, then go for it. Very situational and the decision could go either way but I would take the eight. The fact that Bass missed it does not make it a bad decision. How did that end up working out for us? Bass missed.....
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