Dablitzkrieg Posted October 4, 2020 Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, djp14150 said: Today in Saints-Lions and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th. Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded . commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved. but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt. you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying. im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist. I understand it. Stop drunk posting 1 hour ago, SDS said: As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL I don't, considering he typed it wrong in the title and the body. Does anyone proofread or no?🤣
Just Joshin' Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 Please show your work - I would like to see the stats behind that conclusion. It may be right but "analytics" are used to make announcers look smart more than they have hard data.
Real McClappy Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) What is the NFL success rate at 2pt conversion? The reason if down 14 and you make your first 2pt conversion and get another TD with extra point you can win. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD, on the next TD you go for another 2pt to tie. So, it all comes down to the 1st question. What is the teams success rate at 2 point conversions? Add on: Close to 50% https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-two-point-conversion-success-rate/ Edited October 5, 2020 by Real McNasty 1
Chandemonium Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 I agree with going for 2 down 14 and told my friend I thought the raiders should have done It while watching the game. If you make it, you tie with another td and win by kicking the extra point. If you don’t make it, you can still tie by going for 2 if you score again. The odds of making at least 1 two point conversion on 2 attempts are pretty good.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 It's ok to go for two because the league success rate is right around 50%. If you make even one of them its a tie. If you make the first one and kick an XP on the second one you win. The odds say if you score twice going for two after the first score you are more likely to tie or win than lose. 5 minutes ago, Real McNasty said: What is the NFL success rate at 2pt conversion? The reason if down 14 and you make your first 2pt conversion and get another TD with extra point you can win. If you miss the 2pt conversion on the first TD, on the next TD you go for another 2pt to tie. So, it all comes down to the 1st question. What is the teams success rate at 2 point conversions? At this point, I might take our offense over a Bass XP attempt 1
Real McClappy Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said: At this point, I might take our offense over a Bass XP attempt Right? Our kicking game is what has me more worried than anything else right now. Zero confidence in Bojo or Bass right now.
Ethan in Cleveland Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Real McNasty said: Right? Our kicking game is what has me more worried than anything else right now. Zero confidence in Bojo or Bass right now. There must be someone better than Bojo they can find. Bass has yet to attempt a FG beyond 40 yards I think. Will be interesting the first time McD has to make a decision on a 52 yard attempt Edited October 5, 2020 by Ethan in Portland 1
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 5, 2020 Posted October 5, 2020 5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said: That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14. In the final standings - both teams still lost. Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6. Both still needed another TD. From what I remember its a win probability thing. If u score the 2 tds and kick xps, u cannot win the game. Going for 2 the first time gives u a 6 pt deficit, this gives u a chance to win the game. If u go for 2 the 2nd time, u lose if u don't get it. If u don't get it the first time u just have to try and get it again - which is the same basic coin flip as the first one. 1 hour ago, Chandemonium said: I agree with going for 2 down 14 and told my friend I thought the raiders should have done It while watching the game. If you make it, you tie with another td and win by kicking the extra point. If you don’t make it, you can still tie by going for 2 if you score again. The odds of making at least 1 two point conversion on 2 attempts are pretty good. And if you make it on the first attempt, you would kick to win. 2 XPs gives u a 0 percent chance of victory on 2 possessions.
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