[Incomplete Title] Down 14 in 4th Quarter

[djp14150]

Today in Saints-Lions  and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags down by 14in 4th.  Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded .

 

commrentators on TV thought they were stupid moves.

 

but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt.

 

you would have a better probability of tie and winning than just tying.

 

im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist.  I understand it.

 

the Raiders didn’t try it.  Gruden is too old school.

Edited October 5, 2020 by djp14150

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Today in Saints-Lions  and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th.  Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded .

 

commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved.

 

but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt.

 

you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying.

 

im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist.  I understand it.

if you aren’t going to talk about why don’t start the thread.
 

It’s like kicking the extra point when you scored a touchdown down 8 at the end of the game. Guaranteed failure. 

[Rochesterfan]

Commentators were right - down 14 makes no sense.  Eight points leaves it as 6 - a FG still makes it a two score game.

 

Take the point and then you still have to score again.  You want to win go for 2 at the end.  
 

The 2 points just does not help enough to make the risk.

 

Also fix the title and the initial post so that people can read it please.

Edited October 4, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[MJS]

You go for two because it you still have some time on the clock to potentially overcome missing it. If you go for two later and miss it, you have no time to overcome that.

[Coach Tuesday]

Doen ?

[Rochesterfan]

6 minutes ago, MJS said:

You go for two because it you still have some time on the clock to potentially overcome missing it. If you go for two later and miss it, you have no time to overcome that.

 

That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14.  
 

In the final standings - both teams still lost.  Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6.  Both still needed another TD. 

Edited October 4, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

Today in Saints-Lions  and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th.  Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded .

 

commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved.

 

but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt.

 

you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying.

 

im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist.  I understand it.

Wtf? 
 

in what country are you “a professional data scientist”?

 

[MJS]

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

That would be true down 15 or 16 - why go for 2 when only down by 14.  

 

In the final standings - both teams still lost.  Jags by 8 and Detroit by 6.  Both still needed another TD. 

Ok, yeah. I missed that part of it.

 

Pay me no heed!

[gobills1212]

Sometimes its so bad you just kinda feel bad even bothering to point out why...

[Rc2catch]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Wtf? 
 

in what country are you “a professional data scientist”?

 

That’s exactly what I was thinking 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Rc2catch said:

That’s exactly what I was thinking 

Plus, the Lions are bad at 3 point conversions; among the worst since 2001

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Topic titles must reflect the content of the topic (and it must contain more than just a name). This helps to reduce the number of duplicate topics and makes the community much more user friendly.

 

Please edit the title so that it properly reflects the discussion that you started.

 

The OP may edit the title on a computer by clicking on it and holding

 

Thank you.

[Brennan Huff]

You know, I’m a bit of a scientist myself

[KD in CA]

Did anyone check to see if the OP had a stroke while typing this?

[stevestojan]

Does OP smell burnt toast? Serious question. 

[SDS]

As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL

[Shortchaz]

Going for two in that scenario slightly increases your chances of winning the game in regulation. The absolute chance is still low

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Today in Saints-Lions  and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th.  Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded .

 

commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved.

 

but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt.

 

you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying.

 

im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist.  I understand it.

 

Hope your boss doesn't see this post.  You may be looking for a new job!

[JoPoy88]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Today in Saints-Lions  and Jags-Bengals games lions and jags doen by 14in 4th.  Both tried for a 2 pt after first TD. Jags failed, Lions succeeded .

 

commrntstors on TV thought they were stupid moved.

 

but analytics say otherwise if you can have a high success on 2pt.

 

you would have a better probability oftie and winning than just tying.

 

im not going to go through the analysis. You can find it online. I am a professional data scientist.  I understand it.

high effort post. Not even an attempt at spelling or coherency.

[Mr. WEO]

41 minutes ago, SDS said:

As someone who has a terrible time with spelling mistakes on his phone, I sympathize. LOL

Those weren’t just spelling errors...