Are we still a 9-7 team?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Most preseason predictions, along with Las Vegas, had us as a 9-win team. A fair and reasonable prediction given our schedule and the questions at QB. While it seems the QB questions have been answered, I'd say that Josh's development has been "balanced" by some Defensive regression to keep us about equal to where we were starting. With that said...

 

Most preseason predictions are based upon the premise "As it was in the [last season], is now, and ever shall be: world without end. Amen"***, therefore a team's record last year is predictive of their performance this year.  For a number of factors, many random and uncontrollable such as injuries, that's utter Bunk.

 

It's promising that we controlled the offensive juggernaut that the Rams are built to be for 2+ quarters, including two plays for a loss forcing them back out of easy field goal territory, an interception,  stout defense from the 10 yd line resulting in a FG, and a turnover on downs.  28-3 halfway through the 3rd Q - that's championship D right there!

 

On the other hand: giving up 29 points in a bit over 1 quarter is scraping the league bottom on D.  I doubt we can win 9 games if that's where we go.  If nothing else, being put in a defensive hole like that will trigger "Sugar High Allen".  And if Allen keeps pulling ***** like wrestling two linebackers down and taking another to the ground, our Barkley or Fromm-led offense will finish out the season.  Not because Allen will get hurt wrestling two linebackers and stiff arming Donald, necessarily - he's in control when he does that.  But because "showing up" the D to that extent is gonna put a target on him and someone will pull the trigger.  The correctly trained D will also go for the ball not him when he holds it out there like a sardine over the Orca tank at SeaWorld, and they'll get it, too.  Turnovers Kill.  A teammate or someone he listens to needs to smack Allen upside the HAID and say "cut that ***** out, Fam"

 

Right now we have a hole up the middle on defense.  McDermott and Frazier both have solid reputations as defensive coaches who can get the most out of their personnel, but there's a point where there aren't enough of the right bison in the herd.  So we need to give it a few games for them to adjust and swap and then see who we are, defensively. 

 

Until then, any predictions on season record are just using electrons.

 

***I apologize if this use offends anyone

[MJS]

We were never a 9-7 team this year.

[TheBrownBear]

I think we'll see some regression to the mean for both the offense and defense.  Assuming this Josh Allen sticks around, given the rest of the talent on this squad, we should win a minimum of 10 games.  I'd readjust our over/under to something like 10.5 wins at this point.

Edited October 1, 2020 by TheBrownBear

[IgotBILLStopay]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Only one team per Conference gets a bye in Week 1 of the playoffs under the new format. 

I hope this changes when they add a 17th game, though that in itself should nearly eliminate tied records.

Isnt that what I said? Maybe I was not clear. Record (10 wins, 12 wins, 14 wins etc.) matters for a. getting into playoffs; b. top 4 seed for home field; and c. Top seed for bye, no? When we are undefeated and have two of the other three undefeated teams in the conference on the schedule, we do largely control our own destiny.

[Utah John]

Ask me again in three weeks.  The Rams were the first of four tough games.  When I saw the schedule I was hoping for a 2-2 split of those four.  That's still a realistic goal.

 

Also, we were THIS CLOSE to being 1-2, if it weren't for late heroics by the offense, after the defense let Miami and LAR take the lead away.  Both of those games could easily have been a loss.  Unless the D starts playing better, 9-7 is only slightly pessimistic.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Utah John
more info

[LABILLBACKER]

Everything gets thrown out this year. Covid will alter teams strength like we are now seeing with a huge increase in injuries. Now a team has tested positive. This too will effect the dynamics of the whole season. On paper our season looked daunting.  But as the season goes on teams we face may be down too? This is a 10 win team minimum. And 12-13 is possible. 

[GoBills808]

bro i had us at 13 wins this year

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Ask me again in three weeks.  The Rams were the first of four tough games.  When I saw the schedule I was hoping for a 2-2 split of those four.  That's still a realistic goal.

 

Also, we were THIS CLOSE to being 1-2, if it weren't for late heroics by the offense, after the defense let Miami and LAR take the lead away.  Both of those games could easily have been a loss.  Unless the D starts playing better, 9-7 is only slightly pessimistic.

 

Yeah but for years we all had to say "Yeah we're 1-2, but we were THIS CLOSE to being 3-0, if only the O could score and the refs didnt screw us". And it didnt matter then, we were 1-2. And it doesnt matter now. We are 3-0 baby!

[Penfield45]

9-7 probably gets us a playoff spot with 7 teams this season 

 

that said it would suck if we cannot win the division 

[TheCockSportif]

10 or better is where I think things are going.

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

9-7 probably gets us a playoff spot with 7 teams this season 

 

that said it would suck if we cannot win the division 

 

In the offseason, both the Bills and the Pats were slated for 9 wins. And it was thought that one team would end up 9-7 and one 8-8, with whoever managed to go 9-7 taking the division.

 

Then the Pats signed Cam, and Josh came into his own. I still think it will be a 1 game difference for the division, but probably more like who ends up 10-6 vs 9-7.

[flmike]

Even Kelly's teams lost one that they shouldn't have each year and probably won one that surprised folks. 10-6 unless the D improves a lot. 

[DrDawkinstein]

10-6 means 7-6 from here on out. Still pretty much a 50/50 win-loss split the rest of the way.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Anything less than 12 wins is a disappointment for this team.

 

Teams they are Better than.

Raiders

Titans

Jets

Patriots

Cardinals

Chargers

Broncos

Dolphins

 

Teams they are on Par with

Steelers

49ers

Seahawks

 

Teams they are slightly worse than

Chiefs

 

This is accurate. 

If the Bills lose 2 from category 1 (which happens, it's the NFL), 2 from category 2, and lose to the Chiefs, they go 11-5. To me this seems reasonable and it means that between 10-6 and 12-4 covers probably 75-80% of likely outcomes. 9-7 and 13-3 are both possible, but more like 1 in 10 chance of happening either way. 

 

But this is why they play the games...

Edited October 1, 2020 by Bob Chandler's Hands

[longtimebillsfan]

Assuming we beat the Raiders, (I know that is a big assumption) that would mean we will go 5-7 with our remaining schedule.  Anything is possible.  But I believe our defense will improve as the season goes on. 6-6 or 7-5 for the balance of our schedule is very doable.

[Billsatlastin2018]

I see 2 more wins coming from the Dolphins and Jets, and expect to split with the Pats. So that leaves 3 other wins.

Agreed.

 

Broncos and Chargers are probably the rest of the "obvious" wins.
Agreed.

 

The present Bills are better... to far better than most of those not named the Cheatriots. Now the rest.

 

Chiefs & Seahawks ? Both are much better than the Bills. If there was a real Home game, might make it more difficult! However, this works both ways this year.

 

Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, 49ers, With the injuries to the 9ers, Bills are slightly better- better than those.

 

Steelers. ? Equal.

 

So, possible to be 12-4 or 13-3.

[Lurker]

The next three games will tell the tale on that.    Go 2-1, probably yes.    1-2, then a maybe...

[boater]

Would be a good poll question.

[machine gun kelly]

I said all off season 11-5, and 10-6 at worst.  Not because we don’t have a good team, but the offense as stated is better than even expected, and the defense like most of the NFL is not starting out fast.  It’s a little obvious when 10 starting QB’s are above 70% completion and a few more just below.  The defenses are going to catch up at some point, and I don’t know how long the refs keep their flags in their pocket.

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

This is a bogus question, imo.  We were never a 9-7 team this year, and we certainly aren't now.  Assuming the defense settles in to at least a middle-of-the-league level, I see 11-12 wins in our horizon.  The real question is: can we beat the Patriots and win the division?  I think we can and will.