What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[mjt328]

9 hours ago, K-9 said:

This. It’s important for people to separate “draft experts” and the actual pro scouts and GMs, who had Allen pegged as a 1st round pick BEFORE his final college season. He displayed the great arm, running ability, athleticism, and “dog” determination on the field that we’ve all seen since his rookie year when he was in school and, more importantly, blew everyone away in interviews. 

 

Absolutely.  The vast majority of "draft experts" wouldn't even know which top prospects to start reviewing, if it wasn't for discussions and buzz coming from the professional scouting community.  Nobody even heard of Josh Allen, until the pro guys started talking him up.

 

The sports media also loves talking about highly-touted picks that bust (such as Jamarcus Russell), and late-round picks that surprise and do well (such as Tom Brady).  This creates the false narrative that GMs/pro scouts are fools, and don't know what they are doing - or that drafting is like throwing a dart blindfolded.

 

The truth is, the pro scouts do an excellent job.

Looking at a position like QB, they usually start each year with DOZENS of eligible prospects from all over the country.  By the time the draft actually rolls around, that list has been narrowed down to about 5-6 guys who have a chance at being a successful starter in the NFL.  That group further breaks down into 2-3 first round guys, and 2-3 riskier guys who are considered Day 2 prospects.  Looking at NFL rosters, about 70-75% of the league's starting QBs are those guys originally pegged as "first round talents" and 90-95% are guys the pro scouts picked in the first two days.  That's a huge hit rate.

 

 

[Gordio]

17 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Ah yes, the same Iowa game where CJ Johnson dropped an easy bomb in the endzone.  Wasn't Allen's best game for sure, but the talent around him in 2017 compared to 2016 was like going from a Mercedes to a Ford Pinto.   Wyoming lost C (Redskins), WR (Bears), WR (Saints), TE (Patriots) and RB (Bengals) after the 2016 season.    The 2017 squad was bad yet he still managed to get them to a bowl game and win.

 

I always have a big college opener party & I had Wyoming on one of the TVs and watched most of that game.  I had a lot of money on Wyoming that day so I distinctly remember that game.  His decisions seemed late & he seemed really bothered that day by the Iowa pass rush.  But like you said he had no talent around him, especially playing a decent power 5 team.  He had similar problems against Oregon 2 weeks later when he went 9-24 for 64 yards and 1 int in a 49-13 loss.  That is when I really had doubts about Allen.

[Don Otreply]

Many salient points have been made by others in this thread, but another point may very well be that teams by and large no longer have any real desire to spend the required time and energy to coach up QBs like Josh Allen, or players in other positions for that matter, most GMs and coaches want the prepared food version,  because a lot of them can’t cook... 

 

Go Bills!!!

[CapeBreton]

23 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Who said that?  I missed it.

 

Someone said that Allen was kind of the test case for the validity of old-fashioned eyeballs and shoe soles scouting over modern analytics.  Some truth in that.

 

Cris Collinsworth who as an owner of PFF has "bought into" their stuff thus was down on Allen, said that he never understood why the Bills liked Allen until he met him in person before the Steelers game and saw how he lit up the room and the energy he had.  Then you could tell his firm conviction that the Bills were nuts was actually shaken.  Not gone, but  moved to a pile labeled "further review required".

 

 

 

 

I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah who said it. Mayock was also infatuated with Allen, this was before he was Oakland's GM.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 - draft “expert” is a stupid term anyways.  They miss all the time on players, especially qbs.  Nfl teams miss all the time as well.  If you fired any of these guys after their misses, none of them would exist.

 

2 - Allen was pretty much a consensus 1st round pick while not exactly dominating in college.  So they definitely believed in his skill set/ potential over production.

 

3 - speaking for myself, Allen is the type of prospect that rarely makes it.  Lack of production, especially at the level he played on and his completion %, have been major red flags for nfl success.  Again, it’s a huge guessing game with Qbs anyways but guys with Allen’s resume normally don’t amount to anything.  He is the exception rather than the norm.  
 

so I don’t think anyone really missed.  The guy the first couple of years was what he was hyped up to be.  A ton of potential but with some questionable plays/ decision making.  The Bills have done a great job developing around him and the guy worked his butt off, didn’t cry about his lack of respect like some fans do here, and kept improving.  All the credit goes to him.  I think as others have said, his heart might be his biggest strength.  Even with my doubts about him based on every other prospect like him, I loved everything about his character and work ethic.  He is a natural leader and has become a much better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC, which is absolutely insane.

 

Some fans are so angry and want everyone to apologize for doubting the guy. But it was very valid.  But if he keeps progressing and keeps this up, let’s just all the credit to Allen and the Bills.  They saw something special in this guy and will 99% of guys like him fail, he is the exception to the rule and i would evaluate the next prospect like him. Exactly the same.

 

Allen simply might be special and I’m extremely happy to be wrong in what he could be.

[Mat68]

Imo it comes down to stats and models projecting future success.  Many draft gurus have their own biasis and formulas projecting future success.  There was alot of chatter that Allen was the best option.  In most cases Wyoming was at a disadvantage at every position but Qb his last season.  Allens best was better than everybodys but elite of elite qbs in the NFL.  In a world of spread sets and 2 hand touch big 12 defense Allens numbers are shocking.  Like everything in todays day and age Allen became the perfect polarizing pick with confirmation bias on either side.  

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

In Hollywood they talk about an actor or actress having IT, that undefinable quality that just naturally makes them a STAR.  Well, Josh Allen has that quality, not just on the field, but as a person.  "Process" and "Culture" aren't just buzzwords for McBeane: they actively select players who have that ITness, not only on the football field, but as people as well.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1 - draft “expert” is a stupid term anyways.  They miss all the time on players, especially qbs.  Nfl teams miss all the time as well.  If you fired any of these guys after their misses, none of them would exist.

 

2 - Allen was pretty much a consensus 1st round pick while not exactly dominating in college.  So they definitely believed in his skill set/ potential over production.

 

3 - speaking for myself, Allen is the type of prospect that rarely makes it.  Lack of production, especially at the level he played on and his completion %, have been major red flags for nfl success.  Again, it’s a huge guessing game with Qbs anyways but guys with Allen’s resume normally don’t amount to anything.  He is the exception rather than the norm.  
 

so I don’t think anyone really missed.  The guy the first couple of years was what he was hyped up to be.  A ton of potential but with some questionable plays/ decision making.  The Bills have done a great job developing around him and the guy worked his butt off, didn’t cry about his lack of respect like some fans do here, and kept improving.  All the credit goes to him.  I think as others have said, his heart might be his biggest strength.  Even with my doubts about him based on every other prospect like him, I loved everything about his character and work ethic.  He is a natural leader and has become a much better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC, which is absolutely insane.

 

Some fans are so angry and want everyone to apologize for doubting the guy. But it was very valid.  But if he keeps progressing and keeps this up, let’s just all the credit to Allen and the Bills.  They saw something special in this guy and will 99% of guys like him fail, he is the exception to the rule and i would evaluate the next prospect like him. Exactly the same.

 

Allen simply might be special and I’m extremely happy to be wrong in what he could be.

 

Do you feel better about yourself?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 10/1/2020 at 11:30 AM, Buffalo716 said:

He average over 100 yd per game at the juco level. Wyoming wanted to have a quarterback for 2 years not kill him

 

It was clear to me he would be a massive running threat

 

 

I never saw his JucCo film. And I have to believe his production at Wyoming held a lot more weight in his evaluation. Running threat? Yes. But I never thought he'd put up the greatest 6 game rushing performance the NFL had seen from a QB in his rookie year. Since surpassed by Lamar in 2019. 

 

Josh Allen has nearly developed into the total package as a QB. The arm of Mahomes, Body of Cam, rushing threat of Lamar. He's close to that unicorn.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I never saw his JucCo film. And I have to believe his production at Wyoming held a lot more weight in his evaluation. Running threat? Yes. But I never thought he'd put up the greatest 6 game rushing performance the NFL had seen from a QB in his rookie year. Since surpassed by Lamar in 2019. 

 

Josh Allen has nearly developed into the total package as a QB. The arm of Mahomes, Body of Cam, rushing threat of Lamar. He's close to that unicorn.

Junior colleges in California are full of division 1 athletes. Josh was playing good ball in juco

 

And was averaging like 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards a game. His athletic ability was on full display

 

His running skills was definitely something that I was excited about

Edited October 2, 2020 by Buffalo716

[boater]

It's the old "You can't coach precision" argument.

 

Josh was perceived by scouts as lacking precision. That was seen as reducing his reducing his draft value.

 

Fortunately, Josh has proven them wrong--you can coach precision. Tony Romo's advice to the effect of "your head is on stake through your torso" seems to have worked. Also footwork is better, he's planting his foot better and keeping it pointed downfield.

[LanderPoke]

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

Edited October 2, 2020 by LanderPoke

[stinky finger]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

 

Do you feel better about yourself?

 

I think he was complimenting JA - I think.

 

As difficult as it was, I'm sure.

[Saxum]

42 minutes ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill the RB who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry  the WR saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

 

Great video,

 

Something I never noticed before is that Wyoming has a great logo.  

Many of the NFL logos are too complicated in my opinion.  To hook in younger fans you want something simpler; I can remember drawing the standing buffalo as a kid.

[Chicken Boo]

Just your friendly reminder that about 70% of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen prior to the draft.  

 

I always knew they'd pick Allen, even though I wasn't jazzed about it.  Isn't the first time and won't be the last that I've been wrong.  I thought Steph Curry was too slight of frame to be effective in the NBA.

[The Wiz]

A Completely different Quarterback

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/a-completely-different-quarterback-nfl-analysts-draft-experts-revisit-josh-allen-projections/article_b405a13a-045b-11eb-8541-bbb14e5526d7.html

 

A good read of pre-draft analysis and now from several scouts/talking heads/etc.  Still a bunch of salt sprinkled in there from their view point now, no surprise.

Edited October 2, 2020 by The Wiz

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Many salient points have been made by others in this thread, but another point may very well be that teams by and large no longer have any real desire to spend the required time and energy to coach up QBs like Josh Allen, or players in other positions for that matter, most GMs and coaches want the prepared food version,  because a lot of them can’t cook... 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

I think a lot of GMs and coaches want the prepared food version of key players, because the clock is ticking when they walk in the door and they're expected to win now.  The owners want the prepared food version of a winning team!

 

Owners who sign off on a complete gut-and-rebuild and basically give the coach a 4 year timeline for success are very rare.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

 

The thing about Allen is that there are a bunch of QBs who can make those throws at the college level, especially against lower levels of competition.

 

Allen can actually make them in the NFL.

 

Though for the Love of Bison, Josh:

 

PLEASE stop running around the field waving the ball in one hand at full arm's length like a Seaworld keeper dangling a live herring over the Orca pools.  Sooner or later, Tillicum will rise up from the surf turf ***** it from you and take your arm with it, like as not.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

1 hour ago, inaugural balls said:

 

I think he was complimenting JA - I think.

 

As difficult as it was, I'm sure.

 

He was trying his best!!! lol

[DuckyBoys]

there are 4 or 5 players in Wyomings draft history that made it longterm the nfl.  Not exactly a hotbed.  Jay Novacek, Conrad Dobler, Jim Kick  I think that hurt him a lot.  I think the scouts weighed his college results a ton more than his combine numbers and eyeball test. He was my favorite of the 2018 qbs because I wanted the Bills to shoot for the moon.  Better to have a fast bust and go try again than be stuck with mediocrity for a 5 year cycle