What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[Kmart128]

Wouldn't say experts missed on him... he is a kid from Wyoming that was considered a top 10 pick. Wouldnt consider that missing on someone. He just had a lot of question marks. His talent level was undeniable. 

 

I personally wasnt a big fan of his production 

[Coach Tuesday]

17 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Dave Te Thomas, who is my favorite draft guru also had Josh as the best QB prospect in the draft. His full QB scouting report of the top prospects is here:  https://www.bigblueview.com/2018/4/21/17264242/nfl-draft-report-josh-allen-cream-of-quarterback-crop-2018-nfl-draft-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

 

Cream of the Crop -- Josh Allen, Wyoming

While Allen is likely to go high in the draft, this projection is based on his pro football potential. Yes, there are still quite a few rough edges to work out, and those that compare him to Carson Wentz are missing the boat (Wentz is much more advanced), but he does have a Joe Flacco-like arm and the Matt Ryan ability to change a game with his arm. All he needs is patient coaching.

Damn - Lamar got sacked 101 times at Louisville?  That sounds like a lot!

[cage]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Precision is definitely something that you can work on and get better with. They have hundreds of drills, with footwork and body mechanics, and muscle memory makes a huge difference

 

You can't just get a howitzer like Josh Allen

 

He's improved so you're clearly right, but its "conventional wisdom" that you can't.  Its discussed endlessly about any "inaccurate" QBs.  Its been constant on Allen up until this year.  EJ Manuel had the same rap.  Cam Newton, Geno Smith, Blake Bortles and many, many others.  I have no idea what that QBs not named Josh Allen have done to try to improve their accuracy, but fans, announcers and commentators all have this pre-disposition on that topic

[TheElectricCompany]

The pre-draft stats on him were not just bad, but atrocious.I don't think anyone could make a statistical case on why he should be a 1st round player, let alone a top 10 pick.

 

Yes, stats aren't everything, but we're living in a data based world. The reality is major business decisions, like drafting a 1st round QB and committing to him for 3+ years, require the support of both the tape AND data. Josh never had that.  For example, if you were drafting Baker Mayfield, you were drafting one of the highest graded QBs in NCAA history, and the videos clearly showed someone with great accuracy, fundamentals and awareness. If you were drafting Josh, you were drafting a guy with terrible numbers (ex. threw 1 TD and 8 INT against Power5 opponents in his career), and the videos clearly showed inconsistent play, often against trash teams. 

 

"Heart", "desire", "work ethic" - all good qualities, but it's not like Josh has higher amount of hours in the week than other players. It is a talent based league, and you can't possibly outwork everyone into the turf. Belicheck said it best years ago, QB play is as simple as "See the open guy, make the throw". You either can do it, or you can't.

 

The Bills saw someone that could develop into a star QB, and they should get the credit for that, as should Josh. He's clearly improved his game each season and is quickly burying the pre-draft narratives that exist. Did we get lucky with his success? The stats would say yes, but it doesn't matter now. We're on to Las Vegas...

 

EDIT:  A good reminder of the narrative going into 2018 Draft...

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/25/17277580/draft-qb-thoughts-baker-mayfield-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

 

 

Edited October 1, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[TwistofFate]

22 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

The Bills took him in spite of what they saw, not because they were wrong. 

 

They simply believed they could coach him up to the next level. Which thus far, seems they were correct. 

[Steve Billieve]

Everyone thought he was a raw first round prospect and they were all correct.

Media people create overly dramatic takes because that's what they're paid for.

Edited October 1, 2020 by Steve Billieve

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

Everyone thought he was a raw first round prospect and they were all correct.

Media people create overly dramatic takes because that's what they're paid for.

Yup.  The real scouts knew who Allen was.  He was as exceptionally talented as he was raw as a prospect.  The odds of QB prospects like that working out are low, but they aren’t zero.  And I have harped on this before - rarely are they as raw as Allen was.  Drafting him was a reasonable risk considering his position and his upside.  I doubt I’d have had the guts to take a risk on him at 7 (though I wouldn’t have had all of the information that NFL teams get), but it sure looks good right now. 

[blacklabel]

The raw skills were always there. He has the size, the arm, the moxie, all that good stuff just needed to be refined. And the desire was there as well. Kid sat down and emailed hundreds of schools when he was looking for a shot somewhere, he obviously wants it. 

 

One of the things I've noticed with the draft analyst crowd is that some of them seem to think these guys can't improve once they get in the league. They develop their assessments and then seem to stick to that assessment even when the player is doing things that deter from their evaluations. And then that crap just becomes talking points for the games. Josh Allen could go out and complete every single effin' throw he's ever attempted and the minute he misses one would be the cue for the talking heads to start spewing nonsense about his accuracy.

 

I'm a bit off topic but I'm on a roll and I can't stand most of the lip-flappin' dipsh*ts that get paid to talk football. Every QB is going to have a misfire in every game. Just now it is... But when Patrick Mahomes misses on a throw it's:

 

Play by play: And a rare misfire from Mahomes on second down. That'll bring up a third and long situation.

 

Color commentary: Even though it was incomplete, Pat Mahomes throws this ball with the might of ten million Norse gods, Jim! I mean, be dazzled in the magnificence of his weird curly locks and his angelic Kermit-style cadence! 

 

Josh Allen misses the same exact throw in the same exact situation...

 

Play by play: Oh my, and there's just an atrocious, horrible, awful, terrible, and downright heinous throw by Josh Allen. That'll bring up a third and long and once again, Josh Allen costs his team dearly, Fred!

 

Color commentary: Yeah Jim, it really is quite disgusting. I mean, we knew of the accuracy issues coming out of Wyoming but this is egregious. By god I'm going to have to bleach my own eyes after what I've just witnessed. I like the kid but he should be so ashamed of himself that he voluntarily gives the other team the ball and just retires forever. Just an ungodly abomination of a throw from the Firebaugh kid. 

 

In short, I watch the games on mute now. 

[That's No Moon]

On 9/30/2020 at 5:56 PM, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

The same thing that pro scouts miss on players all the time. It's really hard to measure and quantify internal desire to improve and persist through failure. If you could make an accurate test for that you'd be a billionaire. Tom Brady wouldn't have been a 6th round pick and Russ Wilson wouldn't have been a third and Ryan Leaf wouldn't have been #2 overall.

 

This isn't just in sports either, there are plenty of people with good grades and high measurables who are terrible employees and plenty of people with less than great measurables who are much better and ultimately more successful. 

 

 

[JoshAllenReceipts]

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by JoshAllenReceipts

[JoshAllenReceipts]

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by JoshAllenReceipts

[JoshAllenReceipts]

 

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by JoshAllenReceipts

[CincyBillsFan]

20 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

That’s kinda the point I was making. If you flip their draft positions Allen is probably out of the league or a severe turnover machine in jersey. Where as Darnold would probably be pretty dang successful here. So I don’t think the draft “experts” were completely wrong, they just didn’t expect Allen would progress or get a chance to profess in the pros 

 

Not sure I fully buy into this.  People seem to forget that Allen walked into a crappy situation here.  He was behind Peterman and McCarron, didn't take many first team snaps and had an offense with arguably the worst personnel in the entire 2018 NFL.  A leaky O-line and the worst receiving & TE group in the league.  And his QB coach never played QB.

 

Then Peterman has an epic meltdown in Baltimore and Allen is thrust into the starting lineup in week 2.  He then faces three playoff teams in his first three games. Did okay with San Diego, struggled big time at Green Bay and had a spectacular game against Minnesota.  Let's not forget that after the Baltimore & San Diego games folks on the national scene were wondering if the Bills could beat Alabama!

 

Allen took his lumps and had his ups and downs his first year here.  He got injured and came back and played much better in his last 6 games.  And for all his accuracy issues he also had some spectacular passing & running plays.

 

I'm unconvinced that had Darnald been drafted by Buffalo and went through a similar situation he wouldn't have completely melted down and had twice the TO's that Allen had.

 

 

 

 

[JoshAllenReceipts]

 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Kmart128 said:

Wouldn't say experts missed on him... he is a kid from Wyoming that was considered a top 10 pick. Wouldnt consider that missing on someone. He just had a lot of question marks. His talent level was undeniable. 

 

I personally wasnt a big fan of his production 

 

 

This. They didn't miss at all. They were exactly on the money. 

 

They knew he had a very very high ceiling but was a developmental guy, and that development is unpredictable. Sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but without question it takes time even if it works, and NFL teams would rather take a guy who will achieve his potential as soon as possible, all things being equal.

 

There were some doubters, there always are, but the consensus was he'd be a first rounder, high ceiling, would take time if he did develop.

[Rc2catch]

36 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Not sure I fully buy into this.  People seem to forget that Allen walked into a crappy situation here.  He was behind Peterman and McCarron, didn't take many first team snaps and had an offense with arguably the worst personnel in the entire 2018 NFL.  A leaky O-line and the worst receiving & TE group in the league.  And his QB coach never played QB.

 

Then Peterman has an epic meltdown in Baltimore and Allen is thrust into the starting lineup in week 2.  He then faces three playoff teams in his first three games. Did okay with San Diego, struggled big time at Green Bay and had a spectacular game against Minnesota.  Let's not forget that after the Baltimore & San Diego games folks on the national scene were wondering if the Bills could beat Alabama!

 

Allen took his lumps and had his ups and downs his first year here.  He got injured and came back and played much better in his last 6 games.  And for all his accuracy issues he also had some spectacular passing & running plays.

 

I'm unconvinced that had Darnald been drafted by Buffalo and went through a similar situation he wouldn't have completely melted down and had twice the TO's that Allen had.

 

 

 

 

They really went to polar opposite situations. As Allen got better the bills built a better team around him with more talent. 
Jets has talent year one and as he regressed the talent got worse and worse. Had the Jets made better decisions and spent their free agent money better I think Sam would be having similar success to Allen. You can argue in year 3 Darnold has a worst cast of characters than Allen had in year one. 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenReceipts said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When you have to go to people like Bomani, Geoff Schwartz, Ryan McCrystal and Dan Schneier to find really negative opinions before the draft, that kind of proves the point. Where are the Mike Mayocks, the Bucky Brookses, the Daniel Jeremiahs, the Mel Kipers, the McShays, the Zierliens, the Gil Brandts? I'm sure there were a few exceptions there too, but they were mostly giving variations on high ceiling / developmental guy / will take a lot of time / high character / not a sure thing but if he does achieve his potential he'll be terrific.

 

 

Quick take from Gil Brandt:  

 

Brandt ...

“I think he [Josh Allen] has the work ethic and the intelligence to do it. I think Allen has got unbelievable upside. Whenever you bet on potential a lot of times you get stuck, but I think he has the temperament. He has everything, if he can just get that ball to come out a little more accurately I think he has just unbelievable upside.”

 

and 

 

Brandt ...

“If you don’t need a quarterback to play …. I think Allen has the most upside of anybody.”

 

https://www.bigblueview.com/2018/4/22/17268284/gil-brandt-wyoming-qb-josh-allen-has-hall-of-fame-potential-2018-nfl-draft-ny-giants-saquon-barkley

Edited October 2, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Orlando Buffalo]

He had incredible raw skills and has a great work ethic, short of an Andrew Luck I would prefer a chance to hit the jackpot with a dude like him then have a guy with a great pedigree but is less obsessed with improving.

[K-9]

3 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

Everyone thought he was a raw first round prospect and they were all correct.

Media people create overly dramatic takes because that's what they're paid for.

This. It’s important for people to separate “draft experts” and the actual pro scouts and GMs, who had Allen pegged as a 1st round pick BEFORE his final college season. He displayed the great arm, running ability, athleticism, and “dog” determination on the field that we’ve all seen since his rookie year when he was in school and, more importantly, blew everyone away in interviews. 

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, K-9 said:

This. It’s important for people to separate “draft experts” and the actual pro scouts and GMs, who had Allen pegged as a 1st round pick BEFORE his final college season. He displayed the great arm, running ability, athleticism, and “dog” determination on the field that we’ve all seen since his rookie year when he was in school and, more importantly, blew everyone away in interviews. 

 

I heard Greg Cosell on Cowherd bragging about how he said early on he had the tools and would be a top 10 pick. They were gushing over him for the most part, but also said he’d always have a bit of that wild hair about him. That’s not all bad. 

 

Lots of praise for Josh, and a bit of the gambler or investor always telling you about his wins, but never the losses. 

 

 

.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Augie