What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

Mel Kiper was pretty much the only guy who believed in Allen. He and McShay got into it a couple times live about it, even after Josh’s rookie year. Mel said Allen would be the best QB in the AFC East in the next 5 years and McShay laughed at him and said it was Darnold. Then Mel went off on him.

Dave Te Thomas, who is my favorite draft guru also had Josh as the best QB prospect in the draft. His full QB scouting report of the top prospects is here:  https://www.bigblueview.com/2018/4/21/17264242/nfl-draft-report-josh-allen-cream-of-quarterback-crop-2018-nfl-draft-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

 

Cream of the Crop -- Josh Allen, Wyoming

While Allen is likely to go high in the draft, this projection is based on his pro football potential. Yes, there are still quite a few rough edges to work out, and those that compare him to Carson Wentz are missing the boat (Wentz is much more advanced), but he does have a Joe Flacco-like arm and the Matt Ryan ability to change a game with his arm. All he needs is patient coaching.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

It's simple what they missed...Allen is a 'gamer' and he wants to be better and those two things are true without caveats. Jackson and Allen were both the two best 'gamer' QBs. It's not surprising that they're the two best from that draft. 

 

Yep what makes Allen great is he genuinely loves playing QB and loves football and is insanely competitive on every play, and he has the athletic ability to back it all up. He's been working nonstop to fix every flaw he had as a rookie and he's having the time of his life out there.

[YoloinOhio]

4 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

I think they missed how many fewer reps he had than the other top guys. He didn't go to elite QB camps, he didn't transfer high schools to go to a better football program and he went to a sub par college program as a result. The more you practice something the more you see diminishing returns, Josh has yet to hit that diminishing returns phase and other Josh was there before the draft. 

I came here to say this. As someone who follows college recruiting very closely, if you aren’t at elite 11 and all the camps you can’t dream of an offer from a big program as a QB. Then if you aren’t at a big program you don’t play in big games against good competition and the nfl will always doubt what you can do at that level. It’s hard enough to project a player’s potential to the nfl - add in the lack of College film vs nfl quality talent. The fact he went top 10 anyway, and would have even if the Bills didn’t take him at 7,  shows that the nfl talent evaluators really didn’t miss. I doubt he was “off” anyone’s 1st round board who needed a QB even if mayfield and Darnold were ahead on some. 

Edited October 1, 2020 by YoloinOhio

[Rc2catch]

27 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

I don’t think so.  Darnold would be in a great spot in Buffalo and Allen probably isn’t starting anymore in NY.

 

There so much more than goes into the success of a QB prospect outside of their college stats and measurables.  So much is dependent on the situation they are drafted in.  

That’s kinda the point I was making. If you flip their draft positions Allen is probably out of the league or a severe turnover machine in jersey. Where as Darnold would probably be pretty dang successful here. So I don’t think the draft “experts” were completely wrong, they just didn’t expect Allen would progress or get a chance to profess in the pros 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

I came here to say this. As someone who follows college recruiting very closely, if you aren’t at elite 11 and all the camps you can’t dream of an offer from a big program as a QB. Then if you aren’t at a big program you don’t play in big games against good competition and the nfl will always doubt what you can do at that level. It’s hard enough to project a player’s potential to the nfl - add in the lack of College film vs nfl quality talent. The fact he went top 10 anyway, and would have even if the Bills didn’t take him at 7,  shows that the nfl talent evaluators really didn’t miss. I doubt he was “off” anyone’s 1st round board who needed a QB even if mayfield and Darnold were ahead on some. 

 

This is a really good point, Yolo.   "Draft experts" is kind of a vague term.  It's probably important to differentiate between the actual NFL talent evaluators who prep the 32 draft boards, and the so-called "draft experts" who appear in various media and football information outlets. 

 

The former have accountability for their evaluations and decisions. 

 

The latter thrive on controversy, which bring them attention and clicks.

[Albany,n.y.]

Here's a great Allen & the Bills management team story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2018/07/19/hair-raising-landing-didnt-deter-bills-from-drafting-allen/36985297/

Here's another one: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-the-bills-shocked-themselves-and-landed-josh-allen-tremaine-edmunds-in-2018-nfl-draft/

From 1st story: Once they gathered their breath, the Bills then proceeded with meeting Allen, and put him through a workout.

Without providing Allen with a script of plays beforehand, Daboll began yelling out situations to see how quickly the quarterback could digest the information and make a throw.

"It was, 'All right, the deep dig. Now. Five-step, this. Go.' And he processed it quickly," Beane said. "His workout was very good. And when we left there, we felt very confident."

They were confident enough to give up two second-round picks to Tampa Bay and trade up five spots to draft Allen at No. 7.

Where their confidence wavered involved what bumps they might encounter upon leaving Laramie.

"We were a little distracted about how we were getting out of here," Beane said. "It was like, 'Where do we drive to have the plane meet us?'"

 

CHARTING ALLEN

To address questions regarding Allen's accuracy, Bills scouts turned to game tape to chart every throw he attempted. They assessed what caused the incompletions, including times he threw the ball away when his receivers weren't open.

The Bills also took into account Wyoming's offensive philosophy, which didn't include many short passes.

"He had no gimme throws," Beane said of a quarterback who went 152 of 270, in completing just 56.3 percent of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games last year.

The only real concern was Allen's footwork, which Beane said notably improved by the time he played at the Senior Bowl in January.

"I'm not saying it's fixed," Beane said of Allen's footwork. "But improved."

 

From 2nd story: 

Allen helped his stock with a strong Pro Day and with how he handled himself during meetings with Bills ownership and management, both at Wyoming and in Buffalo. The more film they reviewed the more his best attributes stood out to them, with Beane still raving about Allen's gutty performance against Colorado State, a 16-13 Wyoming win under duress in November in which Allen completed just 10 of 20 passes for 138 yards and no scores, and accounted for just 198 total yards.

"It was a snow game," Beane said. "In the first half it rained and in second half it snowed, and he was not only their running game and throwing game, he was their whole offense and he willed that team to victory. His stats, if you look at his stats, they look terrible. But if you watch the tape, that's where you see a guy that carried his team to victory."

When Beane went to watch Allen play he paid almost as close attention to how he conducted himself on the sidelines -- keeping cool and rallying lesser teammates who routinely let him down with mistakes and dropped passes -- as he did to what was happening between the lines. His attitude and team-first ethos won the Bills over through the process. The subsequent time they spent with Allen leading up to the draft -- after that shaky interaction at the Senior Bowl -- backed up everything he had seen on film or from the binoculars in the press box.

"We met Josh for the first time at the Senior Bowl and spent about a half hour with him, and it was tough," Beane said. "He was super nervous and I thought he was trying too hard, as some of the other ones were. He was just really wanting to impress. 

"When we flew to Laramie his flight was late and he was flying from L.A. to Denver and I think he felt bad that he was late for dinner and he showed up and I was like, 'Man, we've got our owners here, he's going to feel really [nervous].' And he was relaxed and calm and confident. It was like he was a different kid than we saw two months earlier. It just felt natural with him.

"And we brought him here to Buffalo too. You know we saw him in his surroundings in Laramie, so let's bring him to our surroundings, and he just seemed like one of our type of guys. And you saw that leadership and the things I saw on the sidelines when I saw him play live. Even at the Senior Bowl he was high-fiving linemen, patting guys on the butt, clapping all the time. He's into it every play. It wasn't about him, it was about the team, the we, and that's what I think is really important."

 

 

 

[The Virginian]

Desire, heart, grit, and toughness.  Four elements that the analytic guys can't measure.  Combine that with his intelligence, humility, and ability to lead his teammates and you've got yourself a hell of a player and human being.  We call it Cowboy Tough in Wyoming and JA has no shortage of Cowboy Toughness.  He's also competitive as hell.  Tell him he can't do something and he'll plow through brick walls to prove you wrong. So the analytic boys be dammed.  Ignore the haters and their stats. Just enjoy the ride.  Someday, in the not too distant future,  I predict Josh will lead the Bills to the Super Bowl and the Lombardi Trophy.

[K-9]

5 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Because many of these scouts and GMs are like some of the know-it-alls here at TBD where only big boys from big boy programs who put up big time college stats can only be successful.  Remember the heated debate this summer where forum members were saying Fromm was gonna challenge Allen for the job.  That was a fun debate; of course many of those posters are eating their words now.

Pro scouts and GMs had Allen pegged as a first round pick; pretty much after his sophomore year at Wyoming. The arm talent and athleticism were readily apparent to everyone. 
 

You are spot on about the know it alls here and in the twitterverse , though. They just couldn’t see past his completion percentage and the occasional wild throws. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

He's some how more of an athlete and bigger running threat at the next level than he was in college. I think most everyone missed on that. It's rare a guy becomes a scarier runner at the next level. I certainly didn't know he was this athletic where as we all knew Cam, Jackson and Murray were super athletes coming out. 

[pretzel logic]

Cosmic physical tools and one the highest wonerlic scores for a qb..........furthermore, he only played 2 full season in Wyoming.....got thrown in shark tank as a rookie and has become one of the top sharks in the league ....Bills took him in as a baby qb and raised and nourished him into a  NFL Franchise  QB 

[Nihilarian]

I think what sold Brandon Beane on Josh Allen was that he grew up on a farm and was no stranger to hard work. Up at the crack of dawn and worked till dark on his fathers farm.

 

Was a scrawny 180lb 6'2'' kid when he entered Junior college and no big school wanted to give him a scholarship to play football. After 2 years of JR he sent out over 2000 emails to football schools with his resume and only two responded. Wyoming and Eastern Michigan and the latter rescinded their offer once they found out he was talking with the former.

 

Josh Allen got to Wyoming and turned a perennial loser into a bowl game player by basically carrying the team on his shoulders. Even coming from California didn't deter Josh from playing in the snow and cold of Wyoming. In his final season at Wyoming every player that had touched the ball the year before was gone from the team, so he was playing with a bunch of rookies and still got them to a bowl game. 

 

Josh Allen knew what his problems were going into the combine and talked with Mike Mayock (now Raiders GM) about his accuracy issues. 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

37 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

He's some how more of an athlete and bigger running threat at the next level than he was in college. I think most everyone missed on that. It's rare a guy becomes a scarier runner at the next level. I certainly didn't know he was this athletic where as we all knew Cam, Jackson and Murray were super athletes coming out. 

I don't think that is not that he wasn't a running threat. He broke his collarbone his first year at Wyoming running

 

They didn't really run any read options for him his next year, and he only ran off improvisation

 

His Juco running stats are insane

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

I don't think that is not that he wasn't a running threat. He broke his collarbone his first year at Wyoming running

 

They didn't really run any read options for him his next year, and he only ran off improvisation

 

His Juco running stats are insane

Yup everyone missed his legs

 

which is to say they missed his overall athleticism

 

which is to say they missed a lot

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Yup everyone missed his legs

 

which is to say they missed his overall athleticism

 

which is to say they missed a lot

I knew the kid was a world-class athlete. His legs let him survive his rookie year

 

And he needed every bit of athleticism and determination that he has

[transplantbillsfan]

Allen was a relatively short, skinny multi sport athlete in High School at a rural unknown High School who grew physically late into himself.

 

He really wasn't recruited, so he then had to really learn the game at a JuCo followed by low level D1 Wyoming.

 

Plenty of mistakes along the way learning the game.

 

That's why.

[Utah John]

What they saw was, he wasn't very good, at least not when he was drafted.  Just like a horse breeder or trainer can look at a colt and size it up as a future racer, the Bills' FO put in the time to get to know him, and see how he responded to coaching and what his desire to improve was.  The Bills didn't intend for Allen to play much or at all in his rookie year, so we got to see the raw JA on full display.  What we're seeing now is a great player emerging.

[cage]

12 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

What people missed is what people miss about all great athletes

 

Their desire to win and improve at all costs

 

This sums it up best.  The only thing I can add is that many people don't think that a QB can improve his accuracy once they get past college and into the pros.  It is what it is, in their minds.  We've said it on this forum over and over again regarding EJ Manuel.  He was an inaccurate passer and it will never improve.  That's baked into how people think about the position in the same way that your 40 time affects WR/CBs.  And there was plenty of video example to reenforce that point-of-view.

Edited October 1, 2020 by cage

[Shuganuts]

ome word... COACHABILITY.   He’s always had the physicaL tools/talent, but never in HS and college did he have top tier coaching.  The brilliance of our staff was not doing too much too soon,  it seems each off season, they chose an area to focus on and BOY has he improved each time.   Props to Palmer too I suppose...

[smuvtalker]

12 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

I have always thought and heard from "experts" that accuracy can not be taught.  You either have it or don't.  I was way off.  Allen has proven so many including myself wrong and I love it!!

Ditto.  I too was one who thought that a qb coming out of college with a career 56% accuracy percentage could never fix that.  I threw up in my mouth when we made that pick.  My initial thought was "@#$%, WHEN will we finally get the qb position solved?"

 

Crow never tasted so good...

[CLTbills]

I'll have to spend some time searching for it, but I remember hearing Beane say in an interview - I'm pretty sure the Bills scouts flew to Wyoming to watch him play - That what they saw in person was more valuable than what they saw on the field. How he interacted with his teammates on the sideline. The leader that he was, the desire to win are things that you just can't teach. As others have posted, I think they saw his deficiencies as things that could be coached/fixed - mechanics, experience, talent around him. 

They placed as much value on his leadership qualities and that fire/desire to be the best and to win at all costs (which can't be taught/coached) as they did on the on-field product.

 

Damn, we are so lucky to have Brandon Beane. 

 

Edit: Found it!

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/12/14/josh-allen-leadership-has-come-naturally-buffalo-bills/2312594002/

 

But Beane was barely paying attention to any of that when he went to scout Allen live at Wyoming last fall. What he wanted to see was whether Allen possessed the qualities that define a leader, the things you don’t see on the game film. 
 

 

“I could see all the stuff in pre-game, how’s he interacting with his guys?” Beane said. “When they’re going through stretch lines, is he patting them on the butt and getting them going? When they go three-and-out two series in a row, what’s he doing? When he comes off, who’s he talking to? Is he talking to one guy, is he screaming at people, is he a mute? What’s his leadership like? It’s such an important part of playing that position because we all know you’re going to have those days or weeks when you lose three in a row, how’s he going to respond, can he handle adversity?”

What Beane saw then, he sees now, which is why he and the Bills are so excited about Allen’s future.

Edited October 1, 2020 by CLTbills