What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[Buffalo716]

Some of the throws that Josh Allen made on Sunday.

 

The third and 20 pluses.. are a reason why arm strength is not overrated

 

Arm strength was John elways best attribute. Brett favre's best attribute. And is the reason Josh will become a superstar

 

With all the drills, you can teach precision. You cannot teach natural arm strength and release speed like Josh Allen has

[Malazan]

It's simple what they missed...Allen is a 'gamer' and he wants to be better and those two things are true without caveats. Jackson and Allen were both the two best 'gamer' QBs. It's not surprising that they're the two best from that draft. 

[technobot]

Allen has benefited from a program that believed in him and pushed in all the chips for him. From maneuvering in the draft so they could select him, putting mentors and coaches in place, and finally, surrounding him with a bevy of weapons. But then, doesn't everyone do this for their QB?

 

The program itself had time. He wasn't supposed to start year one, and what we saw confirmed this: a raw rookie who needed much refinement, thrown into the fire. I don't want to make excuses for him but it feels like 2019 was his effective rookie year, with 2018 being extended training camp.

Darnold will be on his 3rd head coach, 3rd OC shortly. Mayfield is in a similar situation but at least he's surrounded by a ton of talent. Rosen gotten the worst of it.

 

McDermott and Beane had the benefit of being able to bring Allen along over several years in a "win now, results now" league. It's a luxury that many/most head coaches and GMs don't have. It helps that Allen made the 2018 - 2019 jump as proof that this gamble was going somewhere. While he's still not "there" yet, he's trending in the right direction (early as it is). Making the playoffs last year couldn't have hurt.

 

I doubt they would have given up on him (or the Pegulas would have given up on the regime) unless Allen turned into Nate Peterman. My guess is Pegula had enough faith in McBeane (especially after the Andy Dalton playoff berth) to see this thing through at least 5 years. It's doubtful this was a zero sum game, where Allen either became a top 5 QB, or the whole thing was graded an abject failure. Perhaps there were degrees of acceptability, ranging from MVP candidate to Joe Flacco.

 

Agree with the comments about Allen's heart and character. I believe it is unlikely someone his age can completely ignore the criticism or hate, because of social media. I don't think he lets it affect him; I hope he uses it as ammunition Brady-style to prove the doubters wrong.

 

 

[billybrew1]

I think scouts missed that a QB could be great while not having traditional QB stances and footwork. To be honest, I don’t understand how he does it either. He’s just so strong he just gives the ball a little push and wham, it’s a bomb.

I was never a anti-fan of Allen, I’m too big of a Bills fan. Once we drafted him, I just supported him.

I learned more and more and more since we’ve had him. But his footwork is completely unconventional imho, but it works .

I really think McD and Beane and Daboll especially, did a fantastic job bringing him along slowly and surely.

the weird thing is, he is definitely still getting better and he does things no QB ever did before with his unique blend of size, and strength with speed and athleticism.  How good could he get?  It’s possible he gets better than MaHommes imho... Say, like the middle of next season.... He does these things, and we think he’s crazy, or out of control, but I think he can do them. We are missing plays not really catching on, that no QB did these things before.

[BringBackFlutie]

Their eyes. 

[Da webster guy]

Elusiveness and pocket presence is really tough to assess in the transition from college to pros.   

Josh was already a good QB before this season because of that.  If you can buy an extra 2 seconds you're almost always throwing to guys with good separation, if you can't then you have to be pinpoint which he never was until this year.

 

I swear Daboll WANTS the defense to send a free blitzer because the first guy there always seems to whiff embarrassingly and now somebody is open.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

They didn't miss anything. And I think you're mis-stating what was said about him. That he had a good chance of being the next Locker or Boller? Fair enough. That his ceiling was Mallett? Please. Maybe a guy here or there blew it this badly but the consensus knew that his ceiling was very very high indeed, but questioned the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

 

He was generally considered a first-rounder even though he was also thought to require two years of development, though some said even more.

 

Guys who need development are less valued, and for good reason. Teams would rather have a guy who will be ready quicker, and it is correctly understood development is hard. Relatively fewer developmental guys become good than guys who require less development. And more, a developmental guy is far more dependent on having an excellent environment. The situation has to be excellent. Allen on the Jets might well have not succeeded.

 

More, there's another problem with development guys, which is that even in good circumstances, plenty of them can't develop. Changing mechanics is hard. Some guys prove unable to make those changes. And there's no way to accurately predict which guys can change and which can't.

 

They actually nailed the Josh Allen evaluation. They said he was a hard worker and a great kid, and they were right. Without that and the terrific environment the Bills provided, he wouldn't have become what he has.

 

There were an awful lot even a fair amount of Cam Newton comps, which appear to have been exactly what this group saw.

The name that kept popping up with Allen was Christian Hackenberg.  Many of Twitter analysts made the comparison quite a bit

[skibum]

I think it's fair to say he was a riskier pick than the others at the time, because he needed more development and the time commitment that goes with that; and even after all the investment, there is no guarantee it's going to pay off. There is a lot of pressure now to get instant results out of your high draft picks. 

[Andy1]

Allen is an athletic freak. That part was partially evident. No one knew if it would translate to the NFL. He is succeeding because he combines that with intangibles that people didn’t see. His drive and will to succeed through lots of work has propelled him to success. Luckily Bean & co. Recognized those intangibles and risked their jobs by selecting him. Their ability to build around him has also greatly contributed to Allen’s success. 

[Batman1876]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

OP seems a bit extreme. Did any of the real draft experts not expect him to be a 1st round pick? The draft is a crapshoot. Everyone tries to form an opinion because that is what they are paid to do. Reality is millions of dollars are spent analyzing guys and everyone still gets it wrong more often than right. 

I would say most draft experts were right on Allen in many ways. I think what they did not expect is his athletic ability to translate so well to the NFL. That has helped give him the time to work on the rest of his game which he has done an excellent job of doing. When he was drafted most expected a bumpy ride, but also said the sky is the limit if he figures it out. That ride to the sky is getting much less bumpy. Enjoy it. 

These were quotes from places like football outsiders, draft dudes, pff, Jon Ledyard 

[Ralonzo]

Have some more JAPorn

 

 

[K-9]

59 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The name that kept popping up with Allen was Christian Hackenberg.  Many of Twitter analysts made the comparison quite a bit

Twitter analysts.  Enough said.

[Nihilarian]

Around 98% of the posters on this board wanted Josh Rosen over Allen. Some even wanted Buffalo to give up the farm to the NY Giants to draft Rosen at the #2 spot.

 

Some stated that they felt like they were "gut punched" when Buffalo drafted Allen. One noted supposed board draft guru had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen and most stated he will never be good because of his accuracy issues. 

 

This was the consensus from most of the draft pundits, save Mr Hair, Mel. 

 

 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/22/17267900/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-scouting-report-film-analysis-statistics-background-strengths-weaknesses

 

"Allen will play well in an offense that emphasizes play action, moving pockets, and deep passing. He’ll struggle if he starts right away, unless coaches simplify his reads and emphasize his option to check down. He should head to a team with an established veteran so he can learn the ropes, otherwise his potential may never manifest on Sundays."

[LABILLBACKER]

This could easily have gone any of 4 different directions. Josh Allen was not highly touted when he played at Wyoming. And it's well documented that his accuracy was a problem. But what we are finding out as Bills fans is this kid has heart and leadership and a drive that will push him to numbers we've never seen before. Maybe even better than Jim.  Josh works his ass off every off season just to get better. The pundits that were convinced he would fail have mostly come around. Sean and Brandon saw something special. Even if he'd take some developing. Now that our offense looks amazing lead by a soon to be star, it will be time to revamp our once great defense. 

[JohnNord]

51 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Twitter analysts.  Enough said.

Draft Twitter is a thing!  By that I meant the usual PFF crew and sites like the Draft Network etc

[Rc2catch]

He could just as easily have busted. They’re just playing the odds. Switch Allen and Darnold. Are they in the same position today? 

[JohnNord]

30 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Around 98% of the posters on this board wanted Josh Rosen over Allen. Some even wanted Buffalo to give up the farm to the NY Giants to draft Rosen at the #2 spot.

 

Some stated that they felt like they were "gut punched" when Buffalo drafted Allen. One noted supposed board draft guru had a 3rd round grade on Josh Allen and most stated he will never be good because of his accuracy issues. 

 

This was the consensus from most of the draft pundits, save Mr Hair, Mel. 

 

 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/22/17267900/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-scouting-report-film-analysis-statistics-background-strengths-weaknesses

 

"Allen will play well in an offense that emphasizes play action, moving pockets, and deep passing. He’ll struggle if he starts right away, unless coaches simplify his reads and emphasize his option to check down. He should head to a team with an established veteran so he can learn the ropes, otherwise his potential may never manifest on Sundays."

Most people thought he would never be good because the PFF’s of the world said he wouldn’t be.  Allen is a case study why you shouldn’t always take everything the Analytics crowd says as fact 

3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

He could just as easily have busted. They’re just playing the odds. Switch Allen and Darnold. Are they in the same position today? 

I don’t think so.  Darnold would be in a great spot in Buffalo and Allen probably isn’t starting anymore in NY.

 

There so much more than goes into the success of a QB prospect outside of their college stats and measurables.  So much is dependent on the situation they are drafted in.  

[Saxum]

4 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Because many of these scouts and GMs are like some of the know-it-alls here at TBD where only big boys from big boy programs who put up big time college stats can only be successful.  Remember the heated debate this summer where forum members were saying Fromm was gonna challenge Allen for the job.  That was a fun debate; of course many of those posters are eating their words now.

 

Many of them went back into their holes until time for next game of whack-a-mole.

[blacklabel]

We always talk about how players need to buy into the culture or the vision or the grand master plan or whatever they call their method of operating a pro sports franchise. But all of that has to start at the top, the owners, administration, and coaching staff all have to believe and buy in themselves. And with our dear leader McBeane, they saw Allen's raw skills and his desire and said, "We can make him a franchise quarterback. We believe in our coaches to get him where he can be. We believe in our front office to build a proper offense around him. We believe in our owners to provide the resources to build that offense. We believe we are the ones to maximize his potential." It's a roll of the dice, really on so many things in sports. But they saw what he could be and said, "Yeah, we're the team that'll help him reach his pinnacle." 

 

And that's the culture that McDermott and Beans have created that permeates throughout the entire building. This is really a complete team, they all prop each other up and wanna see each other succeed. McBeane have this team in the right place and headed in the right direction. I hate to get ahead of myself but it feels like something real interesting is brewing for this season. Just feels like we're entering an era where a lot of big time stuff is gonna go down. We're here for it. Youse guys all just gotta Billieve! 

[Stanley Lombardi]

Heart, balls, guts, brains...