What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

7 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

I think they missed how many fewer reps he had than the other top guys. He didn't go to elite QB camps, he didn't transfer high schools to go to a better football program and he went to a sub par college program as a result. The more you practice something the more you see diminishing returns, Josh has yet to hit that diminishing returns phase and other Josh was there before the draft. 

This a really good point! Yes he had heart, but he also had a ton of talent and a tremendous lack of experience compared to most high picks. What that says is he had a lot of room to get better, thus a really high ceiling.

Edited September 30, 2020 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Warcodered]

I think where they missed was that they looked at the results of all the problems Josh had and not the causes. Surrounding cast, inexperience, and mechanics these were all problems Josh had but they were all fixable. Beane did look and with those fixable problems and with his incredible physical talent and drive he was a project worth working on.

Edited September 30, 2020 by Warcodered

[PetermansRedemption]

Simply put, you can’t accurately predict QB’s in the NFL. When I pounded the table for Allen with my friends, I did so with the disclaimer that no one can predict QB’s. They were certain Rosen was going to be a star and Allen would be a dud. It doesn’t matter if you are a casual NFL fan or a 20 year scout, you will do just as well throwing darts at a board when predicting QB success. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Thank God the Jets didn't pick him at three.  I attended most of the Wyoming home games and my seat was along the stairwell by the press boxes and I remember seeing the Jet scouts all the time.

[TheBrownBear]

Watching him play now, it's pretty clear what McBeane saw in him.  They looked past the numbers and saw his otherworldly natural physical gifts, will to win, superior intelligence, likeability and leadership qualities.  

[WideNine]

That if the raw skill is there, and the desire to improve upon them, then players can be coached up.

 

The echo chamber of numbers and stats can become insulated from reality and the nuances of any subject and can be taken too far when projecting. Numbers and stats are good tools to help diagnose where a player's skills are at and where they need to improve. But they are not a good tool to project how a young player with skills will develop when placed in the right system. It begs a system that evolves and captures trends sans bias.

 

Take evaluations of analysts with a grain of salt and listen closely to those given from individuals with position expertise, especially those who have played the position. They will capture numerous details that are lost on most of us.

 

QBs that worked with Allen noted he was scary accurate hitting a spot when not moving or resetting - this tells you he is not inaccurate by nature, but loses accuracy when moving and resetting. If approached objectively you are not starting with an inaccurate QB but one whose mechanical issues moving and resetting are driving the loss of accuracy. Fix those and you can leverage the natural accuracy he possesses.

 

He had no touch - a deeper look found a raw prospect who was not reading defenses or throwing with anticipation to where his receiver was going to be; rather, he was waiting for guys to break open then firing the ball with plenty of sauce to beat the coverage. This was addressed through coaching to understand and read defenses and knowing where his receivers were going to be, and knowing where the ball needs to be, and trusting he will not throw an INT. 

 

Along the same lines, he appears to have gotten some good coaching on mechanics as well from successful veteran QBs that has helped him take some off heat off his throws and lead his targets with more catchable balls. He can still throw on a rope when needed. Hard to separate all of these because they all work together to improve results in the passing game.

 

Most of all, be patient and qualify statements when it comes to something dynamic and multifaceted like player development.

 

 

[Batman1876]

5 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

This a really good point! Yes he had heart, but he also had a ton of talent and a tremendous lack of experience compared to most high picks. What that says is he had a lot of room to get better, thus a really high ceiling.

I think this is why Josh is moving along faster than baker as well. Baker had a will to win and heart too, but Josh is just making bigger gains because he's "younger" in his experience. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

I have always thought and heard from "experts" that accuracy can not be taught.  You either have it or don't.  I was way off.  Allen has proven so many including myself wrong and I love it!!

[LeGOATski]

They saw that he wanted it more.

 

He wants everything more than everyone.

 

So they wanted him more.

 

And he wanted them.

[John from Riverside]

57 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

They missed the fact that he is a dog that has been proving ppl wrong his whole life

[jkeerie]

Brian Billick was on One Bills Live today.  He wrote a book titled "The Q Factor" discussing the 2018 QB draft class and measuring their ability to succeed based on a number of factors.  He said that what Allen has been able to achieve with respect to his accuracy, you just don't see.  The Bills obviously saw a successful QB despite what conventional wisdom would dictate.

[whatdrought]

Haven’t read the whole thread, but I think the biggest thing people missed was how much being a late bloomer who never received top notch coaching and guidance hindered his technical, mental, and emotional understanding of the game. 
 

Most first round NFL QB’s have been groomed for 5 years with QB camps, high school, and colleges all aimed at developing him. Josh was behind on all of that (partially because he didn’t grow into the hulk of a human he is now until late) and it caused his development to slow down. 
 

He’s the quintessential high school girl (or guy) that nobody looks at who shows up at college and everyone loses their mind over cause she was a late bloomer. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by whatdrought

[Augie]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

They missed the fact that he is a dog that has been proving ppl wrong his whole life

 

That has certainly been true. 

 

I think this is a VERY important question: How much did the landing spot make a difference? 

 

Arizona, Cleveland and the Jets were absolute dumpster fires. Rosen didn't get much better in Miami. Josh got a stable organization on the rise with good coaching. I’m NOT making a statement, I’m asking a question. What do you think? What would Josh look like today if he was a Brown or a Jet? 

 

 

 

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Edited October 1, 2020 by Augie

[Putin]

33 minutes ago, NewEra said:

His heart

Exactly ^^^ and his WILL !!!!

[Pokebball]

The real story around the draft and Josh is, who tossed out the tweets a day or two prior to the draft, suggesting Josh was racist.  And how did that impact and influence who drafted him.  If at all.

[Putin]

1 minute ago, Pokebball said:

The real story around the draft and Josh is, who tossed out the tweets a day or two prior to the draft, suggesting Josh was racist.  And how did that impact and influence who drafted him.  If at all.

😈 Bean BAHAHA 

[Dr.Sack]

For too many teams and analysts it’s more about what can he do Year 1 than it is about what can he do by Year 3 and beyond if given time to develop and learn the mental side of the game. Allen by all measures had the raw talent, and character to succeed. The question was how would he develop mentally in processing, learning and refining his game. Allen has certainly improved but I could make the argument he would have been the next Aaron Rodgers if the Bills picked Lamar Jackson instead and he slid to the Patriots and was given two years as Brady’s understudy. There is no doubt in my mind he would be terrorizing and scaring the hell out of us if he slid to the late 1st round and the Patriots scooped him up. Belichick almost certainly was hoping for this scenario. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

 

Clearly they missed the "Legend of Josh Allen" thread below....

 

[ngbills]

OP seems a bit extreme. Did any of the real draft experts not expect him to be a 1st round pick? The draft is a crapshoot. Everyone tries to form an opinion because that is what they are paid to do. Reality is millions of dollars are spent analyzing guys and everyone still gets it wrong more often than right. 

I would say most draft experts were right on Allen in many ways. I think what they did not expect is his athletic ability to translate so well to the NFL. That has helped give him the time to work on the rest of his game which he has done an excellent job of doing. When he was drafted most expected a bumpy ride, but also said the sky is the limit if he figures it out. That ride to the sky is getting much less bumpy. Enjoy it. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by ngbills

[oldmanfan]

Two hardest decisions in sports:  drafting a QB and picking a HC.