What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?

[TroutDog]

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

[Putin]

20 minutes ago, FieldGeneral said:

My make or break test is NE and KC. We will see how he reacts when he sees defenses that change and run formations that he isn't used to. 

Obviously he’s/ Allen is not a finished product by any means and there will be bumps along the way , but as long as he learns from his mistakes and keeps getting better I have no doubt that he will be a top 5 QB in this league 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

They had made significant moves at WR bringing in Brown, and Beasley. I think they were hoping for more from Zay Jones and Robert Foster. The O-Line was also a massive issue that needed addressing. Plus this years draft class was full of great WR talent.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Warcodered

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

 Apologies if this has been discussed as I haven’t read the entire thread. 
 

I just went back and watched the pre-draft videos of Josh. I can tell you of one person who was very high on Josh and that was Mel Kiper. Him and, obviously, Beane and the Bills.

 

I suspect some are better at looking at the entire picture than others, including intangibles, that others don’t have. In other words, some people fall for the hype as opposed to what could be in the right circumstances. 

 

To be honest, I suspect this was the same for Gabriel Davis and, possibly, Isaiah Hodgins. Beane (and/or his staff) seems to have an ability to grasp who the player was in addition to who they will be in McDermott’s system. 
 

This organization is so many light years ahead of where we were it’s not even funny. 

 

 

Ol' Mel can be off more than his hair will ever be, but he was high on Allen and was taking plenty of heat for it.

 

So many intangibles go into a raw QB with potential transforming into a legit NFL franchise QB... I was thinking back to Brady's mentoring and how he learned the game at the feet of Charlie Weis and how he ran the Erhardt-Perkins and later the Air-Erhardt offense with motion formations, multiple receiver sets, and empty backfields and now if you think about it, much of that offensive philosophy is in Daboll's system that Allen is absorbing and putting into practice on the field.

 

He is in a great place to grow and so many things could have gone differently in the 2018 draft..... if the Browns had not gone Mayfield, and the Giants had not gone the Saquon route, and the Jets had not taken Darnold, and if Indy had any inkling that Luck was planning on retiring right before their 2019 training camp. It is like all of our Bills bad Karma just rolled to a stop and the universe tipped the scales in the other direction just enough for Beane and company to be able to get the QB they wanted.

 

Going back and listening to Beane's early comments about Allen in this 2018 post draft interview - damn, we have a very good GM folks. He may even be smarter than math itself

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

They had made significant moves at WR bringing in Brown, and Beasley. I think they were hoping for more from Zay Jones and Robert Foster. The O-Line was also a massive issue that needed addressing. Plus this years draft class was full of great WR talent.

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

Where the hell have you been?

[K-9]

5 hours ago, LanderPoke said:

Josh was drafted because he can make plays like this:

 

Skip to 4:06

 

How many QBs on the planet could make such a play? Evade the rush and throw a 50 yard frozen rope while running to your non-dominant hand? Like Mahomes, Rogers and Allen?

 

Wyoming actually had good talent in 2016 when he got noticed. Chase Roullier is the starting C for Washington, Hollister the TE, is second string for Seattle and has had a nice career, Brian Hill, the RB, who kept the defenses honest is the all-time Wyo leading rusher and second string RB for the Falcons and Gentry, the WR, saw game action for the Bears a few times. As we are seeing now, Josh can light it up when he has good talent surrounding him.

 

Go Bills!

Rare. Arm. Talent.

[TroutDog]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They made the right decision drafting the QB with the highest ceiling.    It's the most important position in sports.    Good ones are nice,  truly great ones can be organization changers.    The Bills didn't need a good QB, they needed one who might be able to help them get a stadium built and expand their fan base.  

 

Allen's ceiling was always very high.   He would have been the top pick in more drafts than not if he were available in any since the SB era began.   He was a beast on the hoof and had excellent intangibles.  

 

But keep in mind that the following spring.........desperate for weapons to help his young QB..........Beane passed on the highest ceiling WR in a decade when he chose a guard prospect to fill a "need" at right tackle.   Drafting to patch immediate holes isn't light years ahead..........it's right out of the Bill O'Brien/Rex Ryan-save-my-ass manual.  And Metcalf wasn't an unsung prospect.......this was after an offseason where there was much speculation about the excellent fit of talents between DK Metcalf and Josh Allen......including by Allen himself.   That one was right in front of their nose.    

 

If they had made that move they are probably the AFC favorite right now.

 

I appreciate your thoughts but saying one right decision negates another is short sighted: QB is the ONE decision and they absolutely nailed it. 
 

Also, in my opinion, they knew where Ford was going to excel the entire time. 

It also seems that you aren’t keeping in mind their grand plan: to purge contracts that didn’t fit their DNA. 

 

Managing a team in the NFL is not simply a case of ‘this guy takes us to the SB and this guy doesn’t’ in my opinion. The nuances are radical and critical. 
 

If you view it otherwise (you clearly do), understood. I don’t. This regime is phenomenal. 

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

I appreciate your thoughts but saying one right decision negates another is short sighted: QB is the ONE decision and they absolutely nailed it. 
 

Also, in my opinion, they knew where Ford was going to excel the entire time. 

It also seems that you aren’t keeping in mind their grand plan: to purge contracts that didn’t fit their DNA. 

 

Managing a team in the NFL is not simply a case of ‘this guy takes us to the SB and this guy doesn’t’ in my opinion. The nuances are radical and critical. 
 

If you view it otherwise (you clearly do), understood. I don’t. This regime is phenomenal. 

If you’re saying they knew at the time they drafted Ford that he was a guard - then the pick was even worse.  You don’t waste a 2nd on an above-average guard, you can find those in the clearance aisle.

[atlbillsfan1975]

If you knew Josh’s story and coupled it with his physical talent and Sean’s demeanor, it had a good chance of working out. Just like Russell and Carroll or Brady and Belichick, it was the right fit. 

Edited October 3, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[TroutDog]

21 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

If you’re saying they knew at the time they drafted Ford that he was a guard - then the pick was even worse.  You don’t waste a 2nd on an above-average guard, you can find those in the clearance aisle.

Fair enough, assuming what he is now is all he will ever be. 
 

Was Josh worth it at pick seven understanding that it would take a few years to come to fruition?

18 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

If you knew Josh’s story and coupled it with his physical talent and Sean’s demeanor, it had a good chance of working out. Just like Russell and Carroll or Brady and Belichick was the right fit. 

Yup. I was too verbose saying the same as it applies to so many picks. 

[Ralonzo]

4 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

 

 

These media jackals. I had almost forgotten. It's so infuriating.

Edited October 3, 2020 by Ralonzo

[Big Blitz]

What everyone missed was the moxie, smarts, and leadership.  They were too busy micro analyzing every bad throw and therefore couldn't properly analyze the big picture in 2018.  And that his college completion percentage meant he wasn't accurate.  Yea.  I guess when you run offenses that don't focus on screen after WR screen or rather then check down you're looking downfield for someone to make a play.  Constantly.  

 

They did the same thing in 2019.  Instead of the growth shown on how "accurate" he became on the 10 - 15 yard throws he struggled with as a rookie, it was "yea but did you see that deep ball he missed."  Lol ok good analysis WGR am and pm guys.  How about this as analysis.  Let me check my dates here; yep he's only 6 months older than Joe Burrow.  Josh just turned 24 in May.  Maybe it's a little bit different a game now, but Russell Wilson's rookie year he was 24.  He didn't throw for over 3500 yards until year 4 when he was 27. Completion % first 3 seasons was 63%

 

So the best part of all this is that he is still nowhere close to his ceiling.  They'll still be rough patches.  Who is to say a half like that vs the Rams doesn't last an entire game...of course they'll be duds. 

 

But you know what?  In his last 19 games....outside of the 4 INT game vs NE, he really hasn't had any.  Games where he wasn't very good?  Sure.  But nothing where you said, wow this was horrific and he was why we lost (which we haven't done much of since the last 6 games in 2018).  Maybe the Eagles game?  Ravens?  But never once did I feel like he was overwhelmed the way Baker looked last year, Darnold does this year (and large chunks of last season), and how Lamar looked at home Monday night.  I'm just saying we never had any reason or were shown any reason to panic.  Ever.

 

Enjoy the ride. 

Edited October 3, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Chicken Boo]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

True but only a small percentage refused to be open minded and give him a chance to improve. That's what bothers me about some of these analysts. It isn't what they thought about him pre-draft, it's about their inability to change their mind even when he clearly showed progress.

 

Fair enough.

[Albany,n.y.]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Every team that passed on Allen could have made the same type of excuses as to why they passed on a highly unusual talent.   

 

You don't pass on a potential Calvin Johnson type mismatch because you signed a couple late 20 somethings who had combined for a handful of seasons over 700 yards receiving in their decade+ in the league.    

 

That's patchin' holes..........not swinging for the fences.     They were rewarded with a pretty bad offense.

 

Fortune favors the bold.   Guys like Cody Ford..........hell just about ANY right tackle or guard.......are easily replaceable......be it by scheme or in free agency etc.. 

 

It was a moment of weakness for Beane and hopefully a learning experience.

 

He was much more aggressive with his draft chips this year.

 

 

Sorry, but when you are knocking Beane for not taking a guy who was the last pick in the 2nd round who turned out to be the 9th WR taken in the draft and comparing his draft status to the 7th overall pick & the 3rd QB taken, you lose all credibility.  

Fans from every team could post the same thing based on how Metcalf is playing.  You can do the same thing whenever a guy gets overlooked by just about every GM & turns out to be a good to great player.

I repeat 9th WR, last pick of the 2nd round.

Somewhere in NY there's a Jets fan saying the Jets GM blew it by not drafting Gabe Davis before we did.   

You can do this every draft.  Why didn't we draft Brady in the 5th round? 

Just because you felt strongly about a player who the Bills didn't draft & you were right about his talent when no NFL GM thought of him as highly as you did, doesn't make you GM material. 

I trust Beane's judgement over any poster on this board 24/7.  

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 9/30/2020 at 5:56 PM, Batman1876 said:

I've been reading a lot of pre draft analysis this week and realized that Allen has already proven them wrong, regardless of what happens from here. Thigs like his ceiling is Ryan Mallet, the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller, I'd rather have Tyrod as my starter for the next 4 years, He wont be ready to start for 3 or 4 years if ever, Rosen will have a far better career than Allen. All of these are already wrong.  The question it's raised for me is what did all these experts fail to notice about Josh Allen? The Bills took him because they saw those takes were wrong, what did they see? 

 

Laser rocket arm, great athleticism and most importantly leadership and work ethic.

 

 

[bigduke6]

havent read the whole thread so forgive me if im repeating anything.

 

the "experts".   arent.   they guess. 

 

on the outside Josh looked like crap in college.    he was on a crappy team,  he made bonehead plays,  but he had the "tools" to be an nfl caliber QB.

 

peeps usually dont like things that arent shiny.   Josh wasnt shiny.    he was covered in dirt,  stuck in a place nobody respected. 

 

if u dont come through one of the CFB powerhouses,  peeps tend to be overlooked.

 

Josh had nothing in his college resume that said,   "sure thing".    the experts edged towards the cautious side.   hedged their bets,  and im glad they were wrong.

[Shaw66]

Character.

 

They missed his desire, his competitiveness, his brains. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Amazing how this board can flip from he sucks to he is the best in the league after 3 games  

Allen was my top choice in the 2018 draft. 

Allen has played great so far in 2020. But he is still a work in progress. He just played 3 of the 5 easiest games on the schedule this year and we have still not seen him correct his fumbling. And we also saw bad hero ball again.  Let's give it a few more weeks so we know for certain he has truly arrived.

 

As for draft experts, there is no such thing. And that goes for Beane too. It's a lottery. It's a crap shoot.