Some thoughts on Bills start this season

[freddyjj]

OK, count me as a long time fan who is surprised by the Offensive juggernaut and Defensive enigma this 2020 Bills squad is to date.  Some things I think may be contributing to this situation that is the reverse of what most national, and some local, pundits predicted in the offseason:

 

1. The Bills D has spent most of the offseason practicing against the Bills Offense, and with the new 4WR look and 11 packages, has not had to do too many run fits.  What we are seeing is them trying to adjust in game.
2. Jefferson at 290 lbs and Horrible Harry at 80% effectiveness are not ideal 1 techniques.  If Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry go off, look for a veteran 1 technique (Snacks, Luiget) to be brought in to play the run.  It does appear they miss Star.
3. The Bills passing game means they will shorten their own TOP as incomplete passes and quick possessions tilt the clock back towards opponents.  There were many games the last few years where bills won TOP and even TO ratio but lost the game.  An efficient offense lets them survive losing the TO battle and TOP like versus Fins and Rams.
4. Is it me or do the Bills on D look markedly small?  The only big guys at their respective positions are maybe Edmunds and Butler.  It will be interesting to see what physical run teams do against the Bills.  Raiders, Titans and NE will provide such tests.
5. Daboll seems to be doing NE type game by game personnel groupings to attack a teams weaknesses.  Run vs Jets, Crossers with WRs vs Fins, Play action and Spread vs Rams.  Nice to see Bills attack using all skill positions (WR, TE, RB and QB) based on opponent so far.
6. It will be interesting if Daboll continues to play different OGs based on opposition.  Spain sitting down was apparently based on dealing with Donald.  When Mongo gets back does he, Ford, Winters or Spain rotate?  Or does one of those 4 get dealt for a pick or DT?
7. Nickel coverage seems to be a big issue and is probably why Kyle Dugger was their Rd 2 target in draft.  Won't be surprised to see Neal or Norman (upon his return) used more here.  Johnson has struggled in coverage and versus run which led to his being replaced vs Rams for 9 plays by Marlowe as Bills tried to stop running game at start of 2nd half.  Would be nice to have one player able to both cover and stop the run.
8. Teams with motion, Play Action and receivers good over the middle have a chance versus Bills D as coverage has broken down to date.  It's what the Rams and Fins did.
9. As a smaller D, Bills count on penetration and ability to cover the flats with LBs.  Play action and end around runs have minimized this strength in games so far.
10. Still waiting to see how Bass will do when we really need him.  Believe the next 2 games will provide the answer.

 

Let me know what you think and add your own early season takes.  Nice to have so many smart and passionate fans in this forum.

Edited September 30, 2020 by freddyjj

[NewEra]

Nice write up.  Good thought process imo.

 

I REALLY hope we add one big bodied DT. Snacks would be ideal but I’m not holding my breath. Luiget does make some sense, I just wonder if he’s in NFL shape at this point (same goes for Snacks).

 

I hope we can figure out this big nickel position.  Taron is gonna get mangled if has to continually take on the run every play.  
 

As I mentioned in another thread, Siran Neal and his lack of playing time has been the biggest disappointment this season imo.  I though he was going to be a big part of this D

Edited September 30, 2020 by NewEra

[Kwai San]

7 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

 

Let me know what you think and add your own early season takes.  Nice to have so many smart and passionate fans in this forum.

 

Man thats a push!! 😈 

 

Seriously tho - well thought out, pretty much the last sentence in point #2 sums the whole thing up for me.

 

Go BILLS!

[PaattMaann]

Last weeks run defense was given problems because of misdirection and lots of motions, was "a lot for the guys to process". 

 

This weeks run defense will face more of a straightforward, old school smash mouth style of rushing attack. Theoretically it should be easier to diagnose and our players should be able to just play instead of think (next week too). I think we will get a better indication of our run defense after these next two weeks.

[bigK14094]

Our DT's are not holding up, and there are gonna be problems with that big O line w Raiders.  We need a big body now....practice squad candidates anywhere?

[TBBills]

36 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

OK, count me as a long time fan who is surprised by the Offensive juggernaut and Defensive enigma this 2020 Bills squad is to date.  Some things I think may be contributing to this situation that is the reverse of what most national, and some local, pundits predicted in the offseason:

 

1. The Bills D has spent most of the offseason practicing against the Bills Offense, and with the new 4WR look and 11 packages, has not had to do too may run fits.  What we are seeing is them trying to adjust in game.
2. Jefferson at 290 lbs and Horrible Harry at 80% effectiveness are not ideal 1 techniques.  If Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry go off, look for a veteran 1 technique (Snacks, Luiget) to be brought in to play the run.  It does appear they miss Star.
3. The Bills passing game means they will shorten their own TOP as incomplete passes and quick possessions tilt the clock back towards opponents.  There were many games the last few years where bills won TOP and even TO ratio but lost the game.  An efficient offense lets them survive losing the TO battle and TOP like versus Fins and Rams.
4. Is it me or do the Bills on D look markedly small?  The only big guys at their respective positions are maybe Edmunds and Butler.  It will be interesting to see what physical run teams do against the Bills.  Raiders, Titans and NE will provide such tests.
5. Daboll seems to be doing NE type game by game personnel groupings to attack a teams weaknesses.  Run vs Jets, Crossers with WRs vs Fins, Play action and Spread vs Rams.  Nice to see Bills attack using all skill positions (WR, TE, RB and QB) based on opponent so far.
6. It will be interesting if Daboll continues to play different OGs based on opposition.  Spain sitting down was apparently based on dealing with Donald.  When Mongo gets back does he, Ford, Winters or Spain rotate?  Or does one of those 4 get dealt for a pick or DT?
7. Nickel coverage seems to be a big issue and is probably why Kyle Dugger was their Rd 2 target in draft.  Won't be surprised to see Neal or Norman (upon his return) used more here.  Johnson has struggled in coverage and versus run which led to his being replaced vs Rams for 9 plays by Marlowe as Bills tried to stop running game at start of 2nd half.  Would be nice to have one player able to both cover and stop the run.
8. Teams with motion, Play Action and receivers good over the middle have a chance versus Bills D as coverage has broken down to date.  It's what the Rams and Fins did.
9. As a smaller D, Bills count on penetration and ability to cover the flats with LBs.  Play action and end around runs have minimized this strength in games so far.
10. Still waiting to see how Bass will do when we really need him.  Believe the next 2 games will provide the answer.

 

Let me know what you think and add your own early season takes.  Nice to have so many smart and passionate fans in this forum.

Defense around the league is down... not just the Bills. So your list of 10 isn't really what's wrong.

 

This has happened before to the Bills and McDermott corrected it if it is a team issue.

Edited September 30, 2020 by TBBills

[jkeerie]

Texans are going to sign Liuget.

[IgotBILLStopay]

Summary

 

1. Our Offense rocks! - Allen, Daboll's schemes, our WRs and Singletary.

2. Our Defense sucks! - Star opt out, injuries, schemes, gap integrity, tackling, new call ups.

3. ST! - Jury still out. Roberts, Bojo, coverage nice, Bass something to prove

 

Continue with the first. Fix the second.

 

 

[mjt328]

Great observations.

 

I believe that success on Defense is very much dependent on the entire unit working together, as opposed to great individual efforts.  One crack in the armor causes the coaches/players to try and compensate, which has then created problems in other places.  

 

I'm definitely starting to believe our problems start with the loss of Star Lotulelei, and his ability to occupy blockers up front.  Harrison Phillips is clearly not back 100% from his ACL injury, and has been disappointing in replacing Star.  In turn, this is exposing the weakness of our MLB Tremaine Edmunds, who really isn't a great between-the-tackles run stopper.  Our struggles against the run make it easier to find success with play action, misdirection and quick passes.

 

This week, our coaching staff seems to be focusing on the "discipline" end and hoping things can be fixed with better gap integrity.  If our defense gets bowled over again, I think we go out and sign a 1-tech DT.

 

[Seasons1992]

57 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Still waiting to see how Bass will do when we really need him.  Believe the next 2 games will provide the answer.

 

It gonna happen. Miss an extra point or two, or an FG, and we will lose a game we could have won.

 

@Virgil will not survive a :02 left field goal to tie or win the game. I may not either.

[smuvtalker]

Great write-up, thank you for that!  

 

I have to say I agree with much of what you said, and the three items that I feel you really nailed are 2, 3, and 10.  Our offense being so predicated on the passing game certainly shortens our T.O.P battle, and does put the D out there a lot longer than they're used to.  We've yet to really consistently run the ball, and you combine that with a good number of our defensive players that are banged up, and we see the results.  I mean we have a large percentage of our D players that are dealing with some type of injury(I'm thinking half maybe)

 

Bass really scared me in week one, to the point I was hoping we'd bring in someone as insurance.  But he has rebounded well. Even though he didn't attempt a FG against the Rams, ALL five of his extra points were dead center.  I'm actually excited to see him attempt his first 50+ yarder.  It was impressive to see his kickoff going INTO the wind still clear the goal line by several yards!!  

 

Again, great write-up!  👍

 

[DCbillsfan]

Good writeup.  I'm surprised at how well the passing game has been.  I didn't think it would come together this quickly for Allen and Diggs.

 

Concerned about run defense.  Tough tests lie ahead with Raiders and Titans.

 

Really like Bass causing a lot of touchbacks on kickoffs.

[Kelly the Dog]

Nice write up. Most all legit concerns. I'm holding off the panic on the defense but if they get lit up this week by Carr with a depleted WR corps we need something to change. Johnson has been a decent to pretty good slot corner in the past; he's not playing well. We have played two hot quarterbacks who do what they did to most teams when they are on their games. But the defense is a worry. Daboll has done yeoman's work on groupings and game-planning and play design/calling.

[thenorthremembers]

I dont think they play Jefferson at 1 tech?   I believe he is a 3 tech and an end in sub packages.   Maybe I am wrong here.

 

Agree about the run defense, but I dont think its a lack of experience against run based offenses.  Butler and Harry need to step it up, they miss Star a whole lot.    The other issue is for how big Edmunds is he doesnt shed blocks well as he isnt dominantly strong, I believe he was somewhere around the 63% percentile for bench press when he came out of VT.    While Milano is better in terms of strength he struggles as well due to size.   When your space eaters arent keeping your linebackers clean, and your linebackers are compounding the issue due to poor gap integrity its a recipe for disaster.   Hopefully they get it fixed this week. 

 

The defense is a little light in the pants, but not across the board.   The guys at 3 Tech are light for the position, but they are both attackers.  If the trend keeps up where our attackers arent attacking, you may see them bring in a bigger 3 Tech.   You may see the Defensive Line get home a little more this week with playing a bigger slower oline.   Just have to hope our offense is as dominate as theyve been and its a pass happy game.

[Rocky Landing]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

OK, count me as a long time fan who is surprised by the Offensive juggernaut and Defensive enigma this 2020 Bills squad is to date.  Some things I think may be contributing to this situation that is the reverse of what most national, and some local, pundits predicted in the offseason:

 

1. The Bills D has spent most of the offseason practicing against the Bills Offense, and with the new 4WR look and 11 packages, has not had to do too may run fits.  What we are seeing is them trying to adjust in game.
2. Jefferson at 290 lbs and Horrible Harry at 80% effectiveness are not ideal 1 techniques.  If Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry go off, look for a veteran 1 technique (Snacks, Luiget) to be brought in to play the run.  It does appear they miss Star.
3. The Bills passing game means they will shorten their own TOP as incomplete passes and quick possessions tilt the clock back towards opponents.  There were many games the last few years where bills won TOP and even TO ratio but lost the game.  An efficient offense lets them survive losing the TO battle and TOP like versus Fins and Rams.
4. Is it me or do the Bills on D look markedly small?  The only big guys at their respective positions are maybe Edmunds and Butler.  It will be interesting to see what physical run teams do against the Bills.  Raiders, Titans and NE will provide such tests.
5. Daboll seems to be doing NE type game by game personnel groupings to attack a teams weaknesses.  Run vs Jets, Crossers with WRs vs Fins, Play action and Spread vs Rams.  Nice to see Bills attack using all skill positions (WR, TE, RB and QB) based on opponent so far.
6. It will be interesting if Daboll continues to play different OGs based on opposition.  Spain sitting down was apparently based on dealing with Donald.  When Mongo gets back does he, Ford, Winters or Spain rotate?  Or does one of those 4 get dealt for a pick or DT?
7. Nickel coverage seems to be a big issue and is probably why Kyle Dugger was their Rd 2 target in draft.  Won't be surprised to see Neal or Norman (upon his return) used more here.  Johnson has struggled in coverage and versus run which led to his being replaced vs Rams for 9 plays by Marlowe as Bills tried to stop running game at start of 2nd half.  Would be nice to have one player able to both cover and stop the run.
8. Teams with motion, Play Action and receivers good over the middle have a chance versus Bills D as coverage has broken down to date.  It's what the Rams and Fins did.
9. As a smaller D, Bills count on penetration and ability to cover the flats with LBs.  Play action and end around runs have minimized this strength in games so far.
10. Still waiting to see how Bass will do when we really need him.  Believe the next 2 games will provide the answer.

 

Let me know what you think and add your own early season takes.  Nice to have so many smart and passionate fans in this forum.

A couple thoughts:

#1. A lot of hay was made over the offseason about how important team continuity would be, especially in the beginning of the season. I think the Bills D is suffering from that lack of continuity to a degree. Our D-line, and LBs are not performing, and it's putting a lot more pressure on the backfield.

#2. Absolutely agree we are deficient at one tech, and that was sorely exposed vs the Rams.

#3. Good point about TOP. I would add that vs. Miami, Fitz did an amazing job of getting the ball out fast. That was by design. With the Edmunds, and Milano injuries, we played press man, pressured Fitz on the edge, and kept him in the pocket. This allowed our D backfield to move in and help protect the weakness in midfield, and placed the Miami offense squarely on Fitz's ability to make quick completions. It more or less worked, but "Good Fitz" sure did show up that game, and kept Miami moving the chains.

#5. Run vs. Jets? No we didn't! Our RBs combined for 41 yards that game, and most of Allen's rushing yards were not on design plays.I know that game strategy was by design, but I felt like a weakness at RB was exposed. Love Motor. Not sold on Moss, or Yeldon. We need a better #2RB.

#7-10. Between Taron, and Siran (and hopefully with Norman's return?) I don't think nickelback is the concern here. Our reliance on a 4-2-5 formation is really exposing our weakness at LB more than anything, as well as our weakness at one tech (as you pointed out). After Milano, and Edmunds (who still seems below 100%) we are thin indeed, Klein, sold as a run-stuffer, has not delivered. Dodson has had some nice plays, but I'm not sure he isn't much better than backup quality. He's certainly not top-tier. Our biggest concern on defense, IMO, is the linebacker corp.

[freddyjj]

4 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I dont think they play Jefferson at 1 tech?   I believe he is a 3 tech and an end in sub packages.   Maybe I am wrong here.

 

Yes I am also surprised they do but he has started there each game and primarily plays 1T

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BUF

 

[thenorthremembers]

1 minute ago, freddyjj said:

Yes I am also surprised they do but he has started there each game and primarily plays 1T

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BUF

 

Interesting.  I havent paid much attention to the starting lineups at the outset of games but you'd think Oliver would be the starting 3, Jefferson would be his backup, and Butler would be starting at 1 tech.  Things that make you go hmmmm...

[Seasons1992]

4 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I don't think nickelback is the concern here. 

 

If you aren't afraid, you are joking yourself.......

 

 

[smuvtalker]

54 minutes ago, Seasons1992 said:

 

It gonna happen. Miss an extra point or two, or an FG, and we will lose a game we could have won.

 

@Virgil will not survive a :02 left field goal to tie or win the game. I may not either.

Add me to the list please.  I barely survived last week's win....

[Rocky Landing]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Really don't think the play of the defensive line was the issue against the Rams... it was the MLB. 

I'm not going to say anything in defense of Edmunds, but the D-line was owned by the Rams O-line on run plays. Henderson was afforded enormous holes into the secondary all day long, and that's not just on Edmunds.