Why is everyone a draft expert????

[Billsfan1972]

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[hemma]

5th round picks can become busts?

 

 

[BrotherChazz]

As a fan base, it’s time to move on from this line of thinking. Josh is showing who he is. He doesn’t care what the pundits are saying, so why should we?
 

I’ll always take the underdog mentality anytime the “experts” want to offer it. I don’t care about their respect. I just care about W’s.

[4_kidd_4]

2021 mock drafts or gtfo.

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, hemma said:

5th round picks can become busts?

 

 

He was thrust into a playoff scenario (SD or were they already LA) and was the starter in 2018.😜

[teef]

i'm just not happy unless i see 300 hard games .  win or lose.

[CommonCents]

3 minutes ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

2021 mock drafts or gtfo.

Lawrence

Chase

 

[Billsfan1972]

Just now, teef said:

i'm just not happy unless i see 300 hard games .  win or lose.

I'll take more of them.  

 

Missing those 17-14 barnburners????

 

Want another 48 game drought?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

No wants to prove themselves wrong. So people will push the narrative that makes them look right until they can't anymore.

 

Allen just has to keep doing what he's doing. Let's stop worrying about these things and just worry about Allen continuing his play. 

[RochesterRob]

  Why is everyone a draft expert?  It's an outlet for blowhards for one reason.  Being or following a draft expert is a way to pass the time.  Even if a person's time is more valuable than that.  Another reason we have so many draft experts now is landline phones are just about extinct so people can no longer safely make prank calls.  It's a hobby and sometimes a job where a person can be wrong most of the time without consequences unlike being a stock broker or futures analyst.

[Virgil]

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

As said I'm not a draft expert and expect the teams scouts to have made a proper pick.....  He was 7th overall.....

 

And again back to the actual thread.

[Thurman#1]

48 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

 

 

Actually, I think most have been right on target through most of it. A few have been too negative. A few too positive. Most have been in the right neighborhood, which is that he was improving but in the end might or might not improve enough to be a franchise guy.

 

The reason the narrative is changing is because Josh has made a huge and sudden leap upwards. The narrative should change when that happens. You say it's slowly changing and that appears very wrong to me. It's changed very rapidly over the course of three weeks.

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

As said I'm not a draft expert and expect the teams scouts to have made a proper pick.....  He was 7th overall.....

 

And again back to the actual thread.

 

 

Do you realize the success rate of QBs drafted in the top ten? Throw out the overall #1s, because Allen wasn't one, and because they're the most likely to succeed. They succeed at a higher rate than those not drafted #1 overall. Look at the success rate of QBs drafted #2 to #10. It is below 50%. So you can expect teams to make the proper picks if you want, but in reality that's not generally the way it works out over time. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[teef]

31 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll take more of them.  

 

Missing those 17-14 barnburners????

 

Want another 48 game drought?

i don't care about 48 game droughts without a 300 yard passer.  i'm only concerned with a win...like an adult would be.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Actually, I think most have been right on target through most of it. A few have been too negative. A few too positive. Most have been in the right neighborhood, which is that he was improving but in the end might or might not improve enough to be a franchise guy.

 

The reason the narrative is changing is because Josh has made a huge and sudden leap upwards. The narrative should change when that happens. You say it's slowly changing and that appears very wrong to me. It's changed very rapidly over the course of three weeks.

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

What was he rated this week?

1 minute ago, teef said:

i don't care about 48 game droughts without a 300 yard passer.  i'm only concerned with a win...like an adult would be.

You never stop......  You mean they went 48-0 through that time frame?  

 

You mean none of the losses would have been a win if the Bills were capable of throwing for 300+ yards?

 

This gets old....  Oldmanfan anywhere around?

[teef]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

You never stop......  You mean they went 48-0 through that time frame?  

 

You mean none of the losses would have been a win if the Bills were capable of throwing for 300+ yards?

 

This gets old....  Oldmanfan anywhere around?

let's just review.  you said you'd rather see a 300 yard game than a win...did you not?  

[Thurman#1]

 

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

 

 

 

Um, so is PFF "many"? I would call it one internet source. You say "many" are still holding on to the old narrative, and yet you only show one. Show me, say, 10 sources still holding onto the old narrative, OK? Then I'll start to be convinced there are "many." As for now, you've got one.

 

And, most people weren't judging him by his college performance. During and after his first year that's what they mostly looked at. But his 52% completion rate wasn't about to inspire confidence. After his second year he was mostly judged by that. He'd improved significantly but was still below 59%. And yeah, if you adjusted his drops to average, his %age went above 60% but was still well somewhere around the 36th highest completion percentage last year, which wasn't good. So evaluations got better but remained unconvinced. The way we know people were looking at his most recent performances is that now that he's performing extremely well, the vast majority of opinions have changed quite a bit.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Albany,n.y.]

20 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

That's why it's so easy for the Negative Nancys to say they hate the choice of the QB taken in the 1st round.  Then if the guy is EJ or JP they can say "I told you so" for the next few years.  I'd rather support the team's choice and hope they were right.  Unless the guy is Peyton Manning it's almost impossible for the average fan to predict the greats vs the busts.  A good example is Josh Rosen.  I didn't see anyone on the days near the draft predicting the guy would be clearing waivers after 2 seasons and nobody would want him on their active roster.  Also in the year P. Manning was drafted a lot of people thought Leaf was the best QB in that draft.  The advantage the teams have is they actually talk with these players.  The Bills saw the desire and attitude that would drive Josh Allen that none of us could see or hear.  At this time it appears they made a wise choice, but even with all the advantages the teams have in evaluating these guys over us, they still get it wrong on 1st round QBs a lot, but if you look at the starting QBs, the majority were 1st rounders so the teams have to swing for the fences in the 1st round and hope they get a Manning & not a Leaf. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

 

Don't know what he was graded as this week by PFF but as of now through three weeks he is their 9th highest graded Quarterback. That will likely end up being 8th though because Lamar is one spot ahead of him and his grade from last night is not yet in, which will almost certainly lower him.

[Brennan Huff]

Everybody is entitled to their opinion, no matter how wrong it is