The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[SF Bills Fan]

Lamar Jackson is a very limited QB. He can be very flashy with his runs but his passing is mediocre. He is kind of like Michael Vick part 2.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I can agree Lamar was never sustaining an MVP level of play with their style. Let’s not forget they were killing teams last year and padding his stats like crazy. All the stat lovers immediately point out how many passing touchdowns he had yet fail to mention how many were from like 1 yard out which is obviously impossible to defend him. They run 70 yards down the field then play action from a yard out and he gets a passing touchdown. Still counts but skews this perception he’s a good passer. He’s not about to be run out of the league or anything but I think is MVP days might be numbered. Roman generally is ineffective after year 2. 
Kyler I’m not so sure of yet, he’s very limited as a passer because of his height. They have to move the pocket for him to see which puts him on the move virtually every play. I also can’t have too much faith in a quarterback who is a pro and still cannot take a snap from under center. Week 1, end of game... To take the knee he takes the snap from shotgun. I only know cause my nephew has him on fantasy football and was highly upset he lost 10 yards rushing on 2 kneel downs and sent me video of Kyler taking a knee from shotgun. Weird. 

he came into the game last night leading the league in YPA

[LeGOATski]

I agree with the point about pocket passing. I think that's pretty obvious.

 

But Jackson is another Vick. I don't think his era is over until he gets injured or too old.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Ballsy post by the OP, he knew he would get push back and still made his opinion known with strong analysis. I think the end of an era thing my be somewhat hyperbolic-by design? I'm not sure.

 

Personally, I've always though many of the same things, and worry about him getting hurt. Once he starts getting hurt it likely won't end either. The comparison to Josh is interesting in the fact that Buffalo, Daboll, Allen et al seem to be evolving by adding pieces and moving towards a more traditional QB led offense combined with using the newer taking advantage of the movement skills of a great athlete.

 

The league always adjust to players and what looks unstoppable like Lamar last year will have to adjust. Greg Roman IMO has always shown a nice ability to build around what he has. Whether he can take it to another level is another question. What if this model they're using with Jackson doesn't have anywhere to go unless he improves certain elements of his game?

 

I think Shaw66 may be on to something I've noticed since the end of last year as well. The league is figuring it out and some teams will be able to handle it, others with weaker talent may not at first thus still good numbers sometimes for Jackson. Has there ever been a team with a QB quite like this win the Super Bowl? It remains to be seen, there is a reason NFL coaches prefer the Mahomes, Allen model. The days of a statue QB are over, they want movement skills. But, they also realize you have to be able to attack certain areas on the better squads in particular.

 

Great post!

[Rc2catch]

4 minutes ago, Chemical said:

he came into the game last night leading the league in YPA

And? He played Houston and Cleveland. What’s that got to do with his stats from last year? It’s easy to pad stats when you’re winning 38-3 in the third quarter and defenses are playing you to run and kill clock which they did a lot last year. 

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, H2o said:

I understand what you are getting at, and I do agree with you to an extent, but sometimes he is going to have to realize you can't make a play every time the ball is in your hands. Some times you just have to live to fight another down, especially in the playoffs because that's when the stakes are the highest. He has been fantastic at bailing himself out thus far by making big play after big play, but it's also a testament to the guys we have in place around him stepping up as well. I've been all in on Allen since I first saw him step onto the field, saw the presence he had out there, and the energy he brought to this team as a whole. His growth that we have all witnessed at the QB position has been nothing short of amazing. Now it's just the little things that can put him right beside Mahomes in that convo for being the best QB in the league imo. 

 

I agree with you.  I think, when someday the book on Allen's career is written (which will include several Lombardis), one of the themes will be that he learned the hard way to save himself for the next play.  It may not happen this year, but it's going to happen with the way he plays - he's going to get himself hurt.  Every single QB or player generally who plays the way he does eventually gets hurt, and many of them change their behavior afterwards as a result.  You can tell McD is struggling with how to coach this aspect of Josh's personality - you want the fire and the compete, you love the toughness and leadership, but there's just a fine line between going all out and taking unnecessary risks.  Someday, Allen will learn to throw the ball out of bounds or run out of bounds or slide, because he'll get hurt.  And the change won't be out of fear of getting hurt - it will be because he hates letting his teammates down by getting hurt.  That's the kind of person he is.

[TheElectricCompany]

6 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Ballsy post by the OP, he knew he would get push back and still made his opinion known with strong analysis.

 

What analysis? There are zero statistics, no videos to check out, just lazy opinions

 Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws.   Jackson doesn't. 

If he's going to make it, he has a lot of work to do as a pocket passer.

 

Have we ever spoken about a MVP in that way? Seriously. It's beyond asinine. 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[Ethan in Cleveland]

46 TD passes against only 9 interceptions. 

Career QB rating of 107

What else does he need to do to be a passing QB?

[Rock'em Sock'em]

Lamar's pairing with Greg Roman is fantastic.  Jackson was league MVP last year.  He passed for over 3000 yards and 36 TDs.  Referring to him (and also Kyler Murray) as a running back is not right.  The immediate impact of having Lamar at QB is undeniable.  Scoring 20 points on the SB favorites really just indicates that the Ravens are not the Super Bowl favorites.  I don't think it's an indicator that a Jackson-led team won't make the playoffs or that the era is over.  The longevity, long-term success, and success at the highest levels of running quarterbacks has not always been there.

 

By contrast, the Bills had decided to draft a project, but passing quarterback.  It's taken a couple years, but Allen's improvement and on-the-field play this year has exceeded Jackson's improvement and play.  Hopefully that trend continues for years to come.

[Buffalo Boy]

41 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".

 

Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earning a seat. Both of these things can exist simultaneously.

 

Frankly, I find this take to be garbage and won't respond further. "The end of an era" because the MVP had one bad game?  Get outta here...

 

Shaw - you come for the king, you better not miss.

Disagree strongly.

LJ does what he does well but , as a bunch of us said last year, if you force him to stay in the pocket and take away the between the hashmark throws, he can’t do it.

Last night was an example.

He’s a dangerous weapon and when coupled with a good D he can win A LOT of games. 
He ISN’T a premier passer who can make all the throws.

Also, it’s easy to play relaxed With a lead, not so much from behind. He has no comebacks from a 10 point deficit...... that’s Tyrod Taylor territory .

[whatdrought]

44 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

Eh. I would be pissed if JA had a clunker and the rest of the league said, see! I told you he wasn't any good! I don't think we should do the same to LJ. 

 

Tonight seemed as much about LJ having an off night as anything. 

He seems to have off nights whenever the bright lights are on against a better team. 
 

Everyone saying it’s only one game clearly missed the playoffs the past two years.

 

43 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".

 

Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earning a seat. Both of these things can exist simultaneously.

 

Frankly, I find this take to be garbage and won't respond further. "The end of an era" because the MVP had one bad game?  Get outta here...

 

Shaw - you come for the king, you better not miss.

 

What an idiotic response. 

 

“Um, this post is so bad and so wrong that I’m so offended that I won’t even tell you why It’s so bad and wrong, I’ll just use a quote that makes me look like I know what I’m talking about even though I won’t engage the topic.”

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

He seems to have off nights whenever the bright lights are on against a better team. 
 

Everyone saying it’s only one game clearly missed the playoffs the past two years.

 

 

What an idiotic response. 

 

“Um, this post is so bad and so wrong that I’m so offended that I won’t even tell you why It’s so bad and wrong, I’ll just use a quote that makes me look like I know what I’m talking about even though I won’t engage the topic.”

 

Yes, I waste my time all week on a football fan message board, and then I proceed to not watch the playoffs.  That checks out. 

[sullim4]

Jackson has to improve as a passer if he expects to remain an elite quarterback.  We've all seen the improvements over last season from Allen... I haven't seen that from Jackson.  The other knock against Jackson - he cannot come from behind and he appears defeated when he's in a hole.  Both Mahomes and Allen have proven they can do this.

 

Jackson looks like the same quarterback he was last year.  If defenses can force him into a pass heavy game, he's going to be ineffective.  Personally, that is not the player I would want at quarterback and why so many people whined about Allen being unable to hit 300yds until this season.

 

FWIW, despite the looming matchup with KC, I think Allen's big test is Belichick and NE*.  They write the defensive blueprints for other teams to beat an opposing quarterback.  Allen has to prove he can beat the cheaters before I give him a seat at the elite quarterback table.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

And? He played Houston and Cleveland. What’s that got to do with his stats from last year? It’s easy to pad stats when you’re winning 38-3 in the third quarter and defenses are playing you to run and kill clock which they did a lot last year. 

Are we knocking QBs for who they’ve played now? Lamar has plenty of deep passes last year 

a quick google search of Lamar Jackson deep passing pulls up this quote. 

 

“Including the postseason, he completed 27 of 68 deep passes for 829 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.3, fifth-best in the league among quarterbacks who took at least 50% of their snaps

 

68 passes would be 17% of all of Jackson’s passing attempts last season, while also accounting for 26.5% of his total passing yards and a third of his touchdown passes from 2019.”

 

also the first 3-4 plays in this highlight reel show he can do it. There are plenty more if you keep watching:

 

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

Hah! I didn't say Jackson is a bad athlete or wont ever play another down.  I said you cant have a consistently offense unless you have a qb who can run a full scale NFL passing offense from the pocket.  Jackson cant do it and is way behind Allen learning it. And even if Jackson can learn it, as long as they try to feature the running qb, they cant send receivers deep.  

 

It was completely obvious watching those two offenses. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

Allen has to prove he can beat the cheaters before I give him a seat at the elite quarterback table.

 

This is fair.

 

[GunnerBill]

One MVP season is not an era.

One bad game cannot end an era.

[racketmaster]

Yeah, I think it is too early to declare the end of the Jackson "era" if there was one to begin with (he was the MVP but he has yet to win a playoff game so he has not been dominating the league in the post season where it counts). I agree with the OP to a certain extent with Jackson in that I don't see Jackson ever being a long term answer at QB and it is why I never really thought we should have drafted him. For sure he can and will continue to be dominant at times during the regular season and as long as he stays healthy he should have is team consistently in the playoffs for 5-6 years which is an excellent draft pick for the end of first round. Beyond that is where things get dicey for me. You see, very soon Jackson will be coming up on his second contract just like Josh Allen. The Ravens will have to pay him 40 mil a year for probably 5 more years in an extension. But that is where I would be extremely worried if I were the Ravens. Jackson is never going to be faster, more elusive or athletic than he is right now at this moment. It is all a decline from here on out as he accumulates hits, minor or major injuries and goes through the natural aging process. Plus, the NFL just gets faster and faster so just like when Vick first came out he could dominate most defenders but the league got faster and closed the gap. I think defenders will only get faster as Jackson naturally gets slower. It will take only one major injury to significantly hamper his running ability and he is basically shot. Jackson's entire game is predicated on his ability to threaten a defense as a runner, and he is a runner at the qb position that the league has never seen since Vick (by comparing athletic standards of the peers he played against). If and when Jackson suffers a hamstring injury or ankle sprain he does not have the ability to play through it and still help his team win. You see last year how Mahomes struggled some with his knee injury but he was able to come back sooner and play through it and still be effective enough to win games and play through it until he recovered. Jackson needs to be at close to full health. He can't play through a knee sprain as he cannot play a full game from inside the pocket. And at this point in his career he is not going to develop into a better pocket passer (just like a Tebow but much more of an athletic threat). 

 

So long story is the Jackson era over, no, not yet. But what is the Jackson era and what does it really mean long term. It means for now the Ravens are in line to win 11-12 games per year and be a playoff team year in and year out for the next 5-6 years as long as he avoids major injury. But when he gets to the playoffs and has to play at least 3 good teams and most likely 4 without the bye to win a Super Bowl it will almost certainly end in disappointment each year. It will be extremely difficult for the Ravens to play from in front for all 3-4 games in the playoffs against quality opponents as once they get down he has proven incapable of passing his team back into the game. After "getting close" for 5-6 years and getting a huge payday is when I seen the physical decline and eventually he is done as a franchise quarterback by around the age of 30. I'll take my chances with an Allen over Jackson in the long term any day of the week and twice on Sunday. It may not work out as Allen could also suffer some career ending injury but he has the ability to shift his game to the pocket (or more accurately in and around the pocket) and we have already begun to see this shift. So where as Jackson will likely be done by the time he is 30, Allen has the chance to plays great football deep into his late 30's because he has such a strong arm that even a natural decline will still allow him to play effectively as he matures and gains anticipation and field awareness. This will allow Allen to have a chance to win a SB potentially for the next 15+ years where as Jackson has a very narrow path to win one over the next 5 years. As for Murray, I think he is a much better passer than Jackson is and he could develop into a Russell Wilson like qb down the road. He is so small (even compared with Wilson and Brees) that I don't think he will ever be as good as Wilson but he has a better chance to win a SB while in his prime because he can threaten as a runner and as a passer.

Edited September 29, 2020 by racketmaster

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either.   I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple of the best running backs in the league, but they limit their offenses.  

 

The problem with Jackson is related to something McDermott (and plenty of other coaches) say all the time:  You have to force the opponent to defend the entire field - sideline to sideline and line of scrimmage to the goal line.  The reason is simple:  If you can threaten to strike anyplace on the field, the defense has to spread out to defend all those places.  When the defense spreads out, they create holes for the offense to attack. 

 

You could see the problem almost immediately last night.  One on side of the ball was a team, the Chiefs, that is perhaps the best in the league at attacking the whole field.  They will hurt you anyplace you leave unprotected.  The Ravens started out playing the game no more than 30 yards downfield, and as the game progress, they didn't even threaten that deep.  The defense tightened and tightened.  Sure, Jackson kept getting himself some nice runs here and there, but they essentially give up the ability to get 100-200 passing downfield to get an extra 50 or 100 out of Jackson.  That's a bad trade.  

 

The other thing that was apparent is that to be a premier QB, you MUST be able to stand in the pocket and direct the attack.  You can't run an effective, all-over-the-field passing attack from outside the hash marks.  Why?  Because you can't threaten deep passes down the right side if your QB is standing outside the left hashmark.  (Well, you can if your QB is Josh Allen, but that's something else.)   Your QB has to be able to stand in, see the entire field, make decisions, and then make throws.   Jackson couldn't do that last night.  If he's going to make it, he has a lot of work to do as a pocket passer.   But even that may not be enough, because if you're going to feature your QB running the ball, you need your receiver to stay shallow to block for him.  So in your regular offense, your receivers aren't running deep routes, so the deep threat isn't there.  

 

It was all pretty obvious watching last night.   Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws.   Jackson doesn't.  Jackson will not be a premier QB if he doesn't learn to play that traditional QB game.  He's way, way behind Josh Allen in developing those skills.  Allen plays much more like Mahomes than like Jackson.  McBeane have always said he was going to be a pocket passer.  They've been working on making him one since he arrived in Buffalo.  Baltimore went down the other road, building an offense that plays to Jackson's strengths, but that is an offense that by definition is limited.  I think they're wasting their time.   Jackson will hurt some teams sometimes, he'll force your defense to play a different style than their used to, but at the end of the season, Baltimore's offense will limit their ability to win big games.  

 

Finally, to bring it back to Allen and the Bills, Mahomes wasn't doing anything last night that Allen doesn't do.  Allen has the better arm, clearly, Mahomes is more poised and more able to attack weaknesses consistently - that's clear too.  What's so encouraging is that Allen can learn to be a great field general, but good as Mahomes arm is, he can't learn to throw like Josh.  

 

Bills are heading down the right road. 

 

I can't agree with you more.

on both bolded comments

 

Missed / overthrown passes.   But Josh Allen is inaccurate!!!    (my ***)

[TheElectricCompany]

8 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

What an idiotic response. 

 

“Um, this post is so bad and so wrong that I’m so offended that I won’t even tell you why It’s so bad and wrong, I’ll just use a quote that makes me look like I know what I’m talking about even though I won’t engage the topic.”

 

Par for the course in an idiotic thread.

Ya'll keep wasting brain cells trying to tear down league MVPs.