The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[Teddy KGB]

4 hours ago, Penfield45 said:

Why does OP constantly hate on minority QB’s ? Seems strange 

One Qb isn’t a pattern.       Go somewhere with this nonsense.  

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

That play shows everything you need to know. Pocket presence, vision, patience. Sick arm, accuracy, velocity, risk calculation... 

 

at this point if the team isn’t successful it’s the pieces around. The QB is the best thing we’ve seen since Kelly. But frankly Kelly didn’t have this arm or was as athletic. 

Also Kelly was a gambler I can remember many a time screaming at my tv for him throwing a bad interception.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/offensive-player-rankings-week-9-what-s-behind-lamar-jackson-s-struggles

Almost a decade before taking over the Baltimore Ravens' offense in 2019, Greg Roman was developing Colin Kaepernick -- then a raw but extremely athletic passer -- with the San Francisco 49ers in his first stint as an NFL offensive coordinator. Halfway through his second season, Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith as the team's QB1 and dazzled with his extraordinary dual-threat ability, shredding defenses in a system that featured run-pass options and designed runs.

Sound familiar?

 

Yes

Oh they forgot Tyrod Taylor 

[Scott7975]

40 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Almost a decade before taking over the Baltimore Ravens' offense in 2019, Greg Roman was developing Colin Kaepernick -- then a raw but extremely athletic passer -- with the San Francisco 49ers in his first stint as an NFL offensive coordinator. Halfway through his second season, Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith as the team's QB1 and dazzled with his extraordinary dual-threat ability, shredding defenses in a system that featured run-pass options and designed runs.

Sound familiar?

 

Yes

Oh they forgot Tyrod Taylor 

It's funny because it's true.  It just takes time.  They will run into better offenses than their defense can handle and they aren't good playing from behind.  They will run into more an more defenses that are good enough to take away the run and the seam pass.

Lamar is probably the best athlete at QB ever.  He just isn't getting better at being a QB IMO. It's weird because he is holding that offense back because he isn't getting better.  On the flip side, I feel like Roman's system is holding Lamar back from getting better.  I don't know if Lamar can get better, but I don't think he will in that system because Roman is not changing it.

Edited November 4, 2020 by Scott7975

[Ya Digg?]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

It's funny because it's true.  It just takes time.  They will run into better offenses than their defense can handle and they aren't good playing from behind.  They will run into more an more defenses that are good enough to take away the run and the seam pass.

Lamar is probably the best athlete at QB ever.  He just isn't getting better at being a QB IMO. It's weird because he is holding that offense back because he isn't getting better.  On the flip side, I feel like Roman's system is holding Lamar back from getting better.  I don't know if Lamar can get better, but I don't think he will in that system because Roman is not changing it.

I might just be splitting hairs here but I don’t think this is true. As soon as I read this statement I immediately thought of Vick and Randall Cunningham. Both are incredibly athletic and both had MUCH better arms than Lamar has. It could just be a matter of preference, but I wouldn’t say Lamar is the most athletic ever. He IS incredibly athletic though, there’s no denying that 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

I might just be splitting hairs here but I don’t think this is true. As soon as I read this statement I immediately thought of Vick and Randall Cunningham. Both are incredibly athletic and both had MUCH better arms than Lamar has. It could just be a matter of preference, but I wouldn’t say Lamar is the most athletic ever. He IS incredibly athletic though, there’s no denying that 

These are good points.  Vick had both size and his arm over Jackson.  Vick was extraordinarily gifted.  

[TheElectricCompany]

Kaep and Taylor in the same realm as Lamar? Get outta here. At least it's debatable with Vick and Cunningham. Vick and Lamar are allegedly <4.35 guys, which is just insane.

 

I don't think Roman's offense, or his supporting cast, are major problems. Could they use more playmakers? Sure - what team (besides KC!) doesn't? They've clearly prioritized RBs, TEs and the OL and have many great players there. Their WR room seems below average, but its not atrocious. The offense has proven itself to be extremely effective and well suited to Lamar's skillset, but I don't think they do as well as "scheming WRs open" for easy completions and big YAC gains, like McVay and Shanahan can.

 

Lamar simply needs to be more consistent. In this slump, he's missing throws hes made many times. I think he'll get back on track in the coming weeks.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Kaep and Taylor in the same realm as Lamar? Get outta here. At least it's debatable with Vick and Cunningham. Vick and Lamar are allegedly <4.35 guys, which is just insane.

 

I don't think the point was to compare Kaepernick and Taylor as running or passing talents with Jackson.  I agree they're not in the same room.

 

I think the point was that his OC, Roman, developed an innovative offense around the skills of these QB that initially had success according to the talents on the team, and then got kind of "solved".

 

Quote

I don't think Roman's offense, or his supporting cast, are major problems. Could they use more playmakers? Sure - what team (besides KC!) doesn't? They've clearly prioritized RBs, TEs and the OL and have many great players there. Their WR room seems below average, but its not atrocious. The offense has proven itself to be extremely effective and well suited to Lamar's skillset, but I don't think they do as well as "scheming WRs open" for easy completions and big YAC gains, like McVay and Shanahan can.

 

I think there are a couple of things.  I don't know if it's true or not, but when Roman was the Bills OC, some people (both here and media 'experts') felt that his passing game was not as well designed as it could have been - and drew examples from SF.  So there could be some limitations there.

 

Quote

Lamar simply needs to be more consistent. In this slump, he's missing throws hes made many times. I think he'll get back on track in the coming weeks.

 

Personally I think he misses those beatiful 3 TE sets they ran last year.  I understand why they did it, but trading away Hayden Hurst may have been a mistake.

[Scott7975]

24 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

I might just be splitting hairs here but I don’t think this is true. As soon as I read this statement I immediately thought of Vick and Randall Cunningham. Both are incredibly athletic and both had MUCH better arms than Lamar has. It could just be a matter of preference, but I wouldn’t say Lamar is the most athletic ever. He IS incredibly athletic though, there’s no denying that 

I believe Vick had a better arm as well.  I think Lamar is a better runner though.  It could be that I just haven't seen Vick in a really long time.

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I believe Vick had a better arm as well.  I think Lamar is a better runner though.  It could be that I just haven't seen Vick in a really long time.

Different running styles.  

 

Vick had great speed, better power, more fluid moves.   I'd prefer Jackson in tight spaces, but I'd take Vick in the open field.  You know those 20-25 yard scrambles Josh Allen has?  Those are touchdowns for Vick.  

[TheElectricCompany]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think the point was to compare Kaepernick and Taylor as running or passing talents with Jackson.  I agree they're not in the same room. I think the point was that his OC, Roman, developed an innovative offense around the skills of these QB that initially had success according to the talents on the team, and then got kind of "solved".

 

I think there are a couple of things.  I don't know if it's true or not, but when Roman was the Bills OC, some people (both here and media 'experts') felt that his passing game was not as well designed as it could have been - and drew examples from SF.  So there could be some limitations there.

 

Personally I think he misses those beatiful 3 TE sets they ran last year.  I understand why they did it, but trading away Hayden Hurst may have been a mistake.

 

Great points...

 

Taylor got the "system QB" treatment from Roman. He was always below average, but in Roman's offense, he became average. Kaep was great for 2 years, and I remember all sorts of highlight reels, but his numbers are surprisingly underwhelming. I think an underrated factor in his demise was the toxic mess SF found itself in for 3 years before Shanahan and Lynch.

 

It's very  likely that Lamar has more success with 2-3 tight end sets. I know PFF is frowned upon around here, but they've talked about it before in their podcasts. The 3 and 4 receiver looks aren't always helpful to young QBs (Baker Mayfield is a good example).

 

 

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Different running styles.  

 

Vick had great speed, better power, more fluid moves.   I'd prefer Jackson in tight spaces, but I'd take Vick in the open field.  You know those 20-25 yard scrambles Josh Allen has?  Those are touchdowns for Vick.  

 

It's a fun theoretical matchup, running only,  I'd say Jackson is better at straight line speed, designed runs and making guys miss in a phone booth. Vick wins at broken play improvisation and sideline to sideline elusiveness.

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[Shaw66]

58 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

 

It's a fun theoretical matchup, running only,  I'd say Jackson is better at straight line speed, designed runs and making guys miss in a phone booth. Vick wins at broken play improvisation and sideline to sideline elusiveness.

 

 

 

Right, except I wouldn't bet against Vick on straight line speed. He was a burner. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 9/29/2020 at 9:06 AM, Shaw66 said:

I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either. I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple of the best running backs in the league, but they limit their offenses.  

We all acknowledge the progress/growth that Allen has made in his game, whereas this post is written as the an assumption that Lamar is not going to progress anymore. 
 

I don’t know how it’s open for Allen to keep getting better, but Lamar can’t find a way too?
 

It’s this idea that Allen is limitless in his potential, whereas other Quarterbacks are going to hit a ceiling because they don’t have as big of an arm, or aren’t as tall, or run too much.

 

Also, I wish talk of the Chiefs and Mahomes would stop in comparison to Allen, McDermott and the Bills. 
 

We aren’t the Chiefs, we aren’t close to becoming the Chiefs, we haven’t had that run of scoring success. Maybe you want to pin it on the athletes they have verses us, Reid verses McDermott, Mahomes being at his ceiling because he sat for a year. 

Being on the right track? A lot of teams are on the right track because they have identified a Quarterback - the Bengals, Chargers. 
 

The window is open for the Bills, but in the same breath we talk about how zone coverage has slowed the Bills offense down despite Allen’s patience and effectiveness.

 

Beat Seattle. Outduel Wilson. Then you can start thumbing your noses at last years MVP.

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

We all acknowledge the progress/growth that Allen has made in his game, whereas this post is written as the an assumption that Lamar is not going to progress anymore. 
 

I don’t know how it’s open for Allen to keep getting better, but Lamar can’t find a way too?
 

It’s this idea that Allen is limitless in his potential, whereas other Quarterbacks are going to hit a ceiling because they don’t have as big of an arm, or aren’t as tall, or run too much.

 

Also, I wish talk of the Chiefs and Mahomes would stop in comparison to Allen, McDermott and the Bills. 
 

We aren’t the Chiefs, we aren’t close to becoming the Chiefs, we haven’t had that run of scoring success. Maybe you want to pin it on the athletes they have verses us, Reid verses McDermott, Mahomes being at his ceiling because he sat for a year. 

Being on the right track? A lot of teams are on the right track because they have identified a Quarterback - the Bengals, Chargers. 
 

The window is open for the Bills, but in the same breath we talk about how zone coverage has slowed the Bills offense down despite Allen’s patience and effectiveness.

 

Beat Seattle. Outduel Wilson. Then you can start thumbing your noses at last years MVP.

I wouldn't ask anyone to go back and read this entire thread, but I have some earlier posts here, and I've said the same thing for a year now, explaining why I don't think Jackson will progress.   

 

It isn't that he can't progress.  Of course he can.  What I've said is that at the end of the day in the NFL, you have to be a good to great pocket passer and pocket decision maker.   Allen has shown definite progress in that area for three straight seasons, to the point where he isn't scrambling nearly as much as he did a couple of seasons ago.   Jackson is just as mediocre in the pocket now as he was in 2018.  

 

Why do I think that he won't succeed there?   One reason is arm strength.   He isn't a good thrower.  He doesn't have a good standard throwing motion.   He doesn't have the arm strength to make the mid-range sideline throws with zip and accuracy.  He's not bad in those areas, but he isn't great. 

 

The reason he's succeeded, as we all know, is that he's a running QB in a run-oriented offense, and he's an outstanding runner.  That's great, but it's limiting in a couple of ways.  First, he's not going to be doing that when he's thirty.  Running backs don't last that long, generally, and no running QBs have been as good in their later years.  When Vick and Newton had to dial down the running, they had to sink or swim as pocket passers.  It will happen to Jackson, too.  

 

Second, defenses will adjust.  McDermott says, and he's right, that the way to succeed on offense is to attack every part of the field, sideline to sideline and line of scrimmage to end zone.  When your offense threatens to make plays all over the field, the defense has to spread out, and when the defense spreads, the offense has opportunities.   Having an offense that features a running back attacks disproportionately at the line of scrimmage and between the hash marks.   You can see it in their passing game - short passes and a lot of throws to the tight ends.  That allows the defenses to pack in, to deemphasize defending the deep zones and the sidelines.   That allows the defenses to shut down the offense.  Now, defenses haven't consistently stopped Jackson yet, because he's such a great talent, but it's already begun.   We've seen multiple games, beginning late last season and into this season where the Ravens get slowed down.  When that happens, Jackson has to beat them by attacking deep and to the sidelines.  That can be done pretty much only from the pocket.  As soon as you roll out your QB, you aren't attacking the far sideline.   So your QB has to have the arm to throw to both sidelines from the pocket.   

 

Can Jackson learn to play that way?   It's certainly possible.  However, so long as he's playing in an offense that focuses on his running, he's not going to be getting a lot of in-game reps learning the pocket game.  And, as I said earlier, so long as the offense focuses on running the ball, he's not likely going to get really good wideouts to throw to, because wideouts want to play in offenses that are designed to attack everywhere.  Why did John Brown leave Baltimore and go to Buffalo?  Well, duh, look at the passing game he played in Baltimore and look at the passing game he's playing in in Buffalo.  

 

Name the greatest running quarterbacks of the past 50 years.  Now name the greatest quarterbacks of the past 50 years.   No one on the first list is on the second.   We're in a period, for a few years, when running QBs are having some success, but it's very unlikely that that will continue.  Defenses will adjust.   Quarterbacks will be forced to play out of the pocket to succeed.   Russell Wilson isn't running as much as he did when he was younger.   

 

So Jackson has to get his butt into the pocket and learn to play there.   I don't see that happening, certainly not in the offense as designed, and I don't think he's a good enough thrower to make it in the pocket.   As spectacular as he is right now, there was a reason the 2018 draft had a big four at the top of the draft and not a big five, and that reason is that Jackson couldn't throw a football the way the top four could.  

[TheElectricCompany]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

.Jackson is just as mediocre in the pocket now as he was in 2018. 

 He isn't a good thrower.  He doesn't have a good standard throwing motion.   He doesn't have the arm strength to make the mid-range sideline throws with zip and accuracy. 

 

28 pages in, and we're still stuck on these points. I just don't get it, but we all have our hills to die on. The other stuff has been discussed countless times across this thread.

 

We can't wait to rake Lamar over the coals when he loses to the Chiefs or undefeated Steelers (they were in it until the final play), but expect patience and understanding when our own QB is in a slump, losing to two elite teams, eeking out wins against the lowly Jets and Patriots, and struggling against zone coverage. It's also strange that the explosive runs we saw in 18 and 19 aren't happening this year.

 

I wonder if the talking heads will pick up the "Has Josh Allen reverted to form? " takes if we lose big to the Seahawks...

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by TheElectricCompany

[MJS]

Pretty premature to say Jackson has been regressing.

 

I do think that every running QB is going to have to progress as a passer in order to stick in this league long-term. Sooner or later defenses will figure out how to contain you and you will HAVE to beat them from the pocket. But Jackson has thrown it well in games before, and there's no reason to think he can't in the future.

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

28 pages in, and we're still stuck on these points. I just don't get it, but we all have our hills to die on. The other stuff has been discussed countless times across this thread.

 

We can't wait to rake Lamar over the coals when he loses to the Chiefs or undefeated Steelers (they were in it until the final play), but expect patience and understanding when our own QB is in a slump, losing to two elite teams, eeking out wins against the lowly Jets and Patriots, and struggling against zone coverage. It's also strange that the explosive runs we saw in 18 and 19 aren't happening this year.

 

I wonder if the talking heads will pick up the "Has Josh Allen reverted to form? " takes if we lose big to the Seahawks...

 

Yeah, this thread ran longer than I'd ever expected, and then someone brought it back for a second run.  

 

For the record, I never intended to bury Jackson this week or this month.  I was talking about the trajectory of his career.

 

I think Jackson is great at what he does.  I just don't think any team can enjoy long-term success playing like that, and I think we've already begun to see that he's reaching the plateau from which his gradual decline will begin.  Just like Newton and Vick plateaued and declined.  When your offense depends on the QB running, your passing game suffers, and when your passing game suffers, your offense is too limited to win consistently.  Unless Jackson can morph into a version of Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, and he hasn't shown much ability to do that yet, he is not going to be one of the top QBs for the next decade. 

[Saxum]

There are running QBs who have been successful but they also got better passing as their career progressed.

NFL actually has made it easier on running QBs with more holding allowed by OL and more protected areas not allowed to be hit although the zebras will allow on same type of play defenses to hit "running" QBs more than they do "pocket" QBs.

 

 

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

On 11/2/2020 at 11:06 PM, Warcodered said:

Is it though? Throwing into a window where the defenders were able to sandwich the guy like that seems to me he was trying to force it to a guy that was pretty well covered.

Very true. But I’ve seen the WR make the play in that situation too. Just think it’s a fine line between narratives 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Pretty premature to say Jackson has been regressing.

 

I do think that every running QB is going to have to progress as a passer in order to stick in this league long-term. Sooner or later defenses will figure out how to contain you and you will HAVE to beat them from the pocket. But Jackson has thrown it well in games before, and there's no reason to think he can't in the future.

I think I've said he's plateaued, not regressing.  

 

And yes, he will HAVE to beat teams from the pocket.  That's what I said.  Whether he's done it before on occasion isn't the point.   Watch him play and ask yourself where Jackson is in terms of progress toward being an excellent pocket passer, a guy who can consistently beat you from the pocket.   I think an honest evaluation of Jackson is that he is way behind Mahomes for sure, and behind Allen, and I think there's a good argument that he's behind Watson, Prescott, Wentz, and even Burrow and Herbert.  I think Tua is way over-hyped, but there's a good chance he's better, or soon will be, better in the pocket than Jackson.   Create any list you want, I think there are a half-dozen young QBs in the league who are showing much better progress than Jackson in becoming master pocket passers. 

 

And Jackson's progress as a pocket passer is going to be limited until he's asked to play in an offense that demands that he be a good pocket passer.   That's what the Bills have done to Allen.   Sure, they still look to Allen to contribute to the running game, but the message has been clear from his rookie season that the Bills wanted him in the pocket, throwing the football.   The result has been that he's learned and made progress at it.  Jackson, on the other hand, is playing in an offense that doesn't give him the opportunity, play after play, to be the kind of QB who will dissect defenses by throwing the ball all over the field.   If his coaches aren't demanding that he play that way, he won't develop.  Why aren't the coaches demanding that Jackson play out of the pocket?    Because he can't throw like Mahomes and Allen and Watson and Prescott and Herbert, that's why.  And that's why he wasn't taken in the top 10 of the draft.