The End of the Lamar Jackson Era

[GunnerBill]

The point @Zerovoltz makes about not blitzing Mahomes is a good one. You don't blitz the best guys because as soon as you do they know in a nano second where that leaves a coverage hole and they get to their hot. Brady was a guy you never really should blitz. Rex actually had success with it a couple of times in his early Jets reign but he was aboyut the only guy and Rex used that same gameplan a dozen more times and got shredded. Rodgers is a guy you don't blitz, Brees and Manning the same.... Mahomes in that category too.

 

Think it is an area where both Allen and Jackson both need to get better still.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I agree with you, but I also understand the hype.  He's a spectacular runner, and he throws well, at least the passes he throws.  And he's a great competitor.  I just don't see how that style wins, long-term.  It's too one dimensional.

 

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I agree with that.  He is an amazing athlete, fun to watch, and runs Romans offense really well.  As a passer though, he just isn't there.  I also agree it wont win long term against teams able to contain the run and take the middle of the field away.

 

 passing 208.5 ypg in 2019.   192 ypg in 2020.  Those are Tyrod Taylor #'s

 

IMO The hype was because he scored TD's.  To open players because of spies and or a blown play by the defense.  

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Jackson’s precociousness as a runner and leader has been well documented. But even some of the NFL’s most decorated passers didn’t find a groove as quickly as he has. Jackson’s accuracy through his first 24 starts (65%) trumps that of Tom Brady (64.8%), Aaron Rodgers (63.4%), Russell Wilson (63%) and Drew Brees (59.7%).

 

Stats... 

How many passes?   15 - 20 per game verses 30 - 40?     This is the Tyrod argument all over again.  Less passes to Wide Open players.  

The odds are then the more you pass the greater the chance of a non catch.  

 

[BobbyC81]

21 hours ago, H2o said:

I was watching Mahomes last night and you see the things he does that separates him from Allen. When he runs he doesn't take hits. He slides or he gets out of bounds. When a play is busted he will throw the ball away and live to fight another down. A lot of the throws Allen is making this year is just like Mahomes, but he needs to preserve himself by not taking the hits when he can and throw the ball away when necessary because it's not the end of the world. This will be the next step in the maturation of Allen. 

 

On Lamar? He will be a QB in Baltimore for as long as his body holds up and as long as Roman is the OC. He will put up gaudy numbers at times. The fact of the matter remains the same, make him beat you with his arm by having to stay contained and forcing him to throw outside the numbers. He can't right now. Let him run and get some yards on the ground. It's not going to beat the good teams. Pressure him and force him to make quick reads while stepping up into the pocket. He can't beat you that way right now. Keep him from scrambling to his right because that's where most of his improvisational throws come from. We did a good job of containing him last year outside of the one busted coverage where Hurst got the TD. The Titans forced him to try to comeback using his arm and he faltered. The Chiefs last night followed a similar blueprint. Even with all of that, I still see Lamar and Josh as head and shoulders above the rest as the top 2 QB's from that draft class. They are definitely the two most exciting as well.  

Another thing I noticed about Mahomes is that he doesn’t panic.  He’s a real cool customer.  I think Josh can eventually get there, too.

[Rick 'r Mortis]

1 hour ago, ColeB said:

Another thing I noticed about Mahomes is that he doesn’t panic.  He’s a real cool customer.  I think Josh can eventually get there, too.

Or get rattled, for what I can remember. Josh clearly got rattled against the Rams.

[Rc2catch]

7 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

I assume you are bashing Lamar for throwing a "high" number of short TD passes....most TD passes are short....becaus they are easier...if you look at all QB's they all have many more short TD throws than long ones.

No I think you’re missing the point I was making. I never “bashed” Lamar. When people defend his passing game they tend to point out how many passing touchdowns he has, and it’s kind of a misleading stat because a very large portion of those come inside the 10 yard line. He’s not leading the team down the field with his arm, this is why we see him struggle when they’re behind or in pressure games when defenses are more serious. His season was magical last year, and we’ll probably never see that great of a season from anyone again. He was never going to maintain that level of play. It’s not sustainable in the nfl. He’s coming back down to earth and he’ll hang in the 20-30 range as a passer. Add in his running threat and he’s a top 15 quarterback in the league. Doubtful that he’s ever in the talks for mvp again unless his passing improves a bunch. It can, others have improved. I don’t think it will though as long as Roman is there. 

[TheElectricCompany]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

 This is the Tyrod argument all over again. 

 

 

Oh my....LOL

I think it is clear you are seeing exactly what you want to see. 

Stats, accolades and highlights be damned. 

[BobbyC81]

10 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

No I think you’re missing the point I was making. I never “bashed” Lamar. When people defend his passing game they tend to point out how many passing touchdowns he has, and it’s kind of a misleading stat because a very large portion of those come inside the 10 yard line. He’s not leading the team down the field with his arm, this is why we see him struggle when they’re behind or in pressure games when defenses are more serious. His season was magical last year, and we’ll probably never see that great of a season from anyone again. He was never going to maintain that level of play. It’s not sustainable in the nfl. He’s coming back down to earth and he’ll hang in the 20-30 range as a passer. Add in his running threat and he’s a top 15 quarterback in the league. Doubtful that he’s ever in the talks for mvp again unless his passing improves a bunch. It can, others have improved. I don’t think it will though as long as Roman is there. 

It’s similar to how it was for Michael Vick.  Yes, he had a strong arm but it’s not like he was consistently hitting deep throws.  His running ability is what worried defensive coordinators.  When he had an injury and lost a step, he was less effective.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Oh my....LOL

I think it is clear you are seeing exactly what you want to see. 

Stats, accolades and highlights be damned. 

I see what I see because it’s the truth 

 

 

[stuvian]

I thought Harbaugh and the Ravens coaching staff called a terrible game on both sides of the ball Monday. Jackson limited himself to the middle of the field between the hash marks about thirty yards deep. That can be easily game planned away by a good coach or DC. His repertoire looked really limited. I think he has all the passing talent in the world but it's up to his coaches to develop his game so as to keep defenses honest. 

[Jerome007]

What thing is for sure, you do NOT want to get behind against the Ravens. Not on defense anyway, as it will HURT. They must be one of the most bruising offense ever. Playing WRs for them would suck, but playing OL or TE must be fun.

 

I get the original point though. Trading 100-200 yards of pass offense for an extra 50-100 by Jackson/RBs ain't a good tradeoff. And people have been saying Allen will get hurt running. He hasn't gotten near the number of hard shots Lamar has gotten. I really doubt it can last but for now, it works. KC just scores on almost every drive.

 

BTW the Bills WILL also have to score a lot of points. I don't see our D slowing KC down much. So Allen and friends will have to outgun them.

[Paulus]

It was a matter of time before defenses adjusted to his play. We will wait and see if LJ can now adjust to that adjustment. 

[whatdrought]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The point @Zerovoltz makes about not blitzing Mahomes is a good one. You don't blitz the best guys because as soon as you do they know in a nano second where that leaves a coverage hole and they get to their hot. Brady was a guy you never really should blitz. Rex actually had success with it a couple of times in his early Jets reign but he was aboyut the only guy and Rex used that same gameplan a dozen more times and got shredded. Rodgers is a guy you don't blitz, Brees and Manning the same.... Mahomes in that category too.

 

Think it is an area where both Allen and Jackson both need to get better still.

 

Did they Blitz Allen on the game winning drive last week? I remember a lot of pressure and being impressed with how he handled, but I didn’t see how many they were bringing. 

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

Look, it's simple:

 

Lamar has never shown he can make all the throws that JA can make.

 

So, unless Lamar somehow figures that out, he's always gonna be limited.

 

JA is the bomb diggity because he has no limits, in terms of throwing potential

 

All this is not rocket surgery.  Just realness.

 

That being said, Lamar will probably beat Allen in a 40 yard dash.  But...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The point @Zerovoltz makes about not blitzing Mahomes is a good one. You don't blitz the best guys because as soon as you do they know in a nano second where that leaves a coverage hole and they get to their hot. Brady was a guy you never really should blitz. Rex actually had success with it a couple of times in his early Jets reign but he was aboyut the only guy and Rex used that same gameplan a dozen more times and got shredded. Rodgers is a guy you don't blitz, Brees and Manning the same.... Mahomes in that category too.

 

Think it is an area where both Allen and Jackson both need to get better still.

 

You took a crack at someone else for linking his stuff in another thread (not sure what's up with that) but actually,  Brett Kollman had one of the very best pieces explaining just this point that I've ever seen, "Kids See Ghosts" about Sam Darnold's "I'm seeing ghosts" game against the Patriots and their use of one specific form of blitz, Blitz zero.

 

In it, Kollman uses a Patriots-KC game during Mahomes 2nd year (first year starting) as an example of the point that Blitz recognition and "knowing the answers" is something that takes time - that even a generational talent such as Pat Mahomes with an excellent coaching staff and surrounding personnel was NOT prepared for it and struggled.

 

He then uses several examples to show how play selection and QB recognition interact - yes, the QB needs to recognize at the line of scrimmage what the defense is doing, but he also needs to have play options or the option to check to a different play that will be effective against what he sees.

 

I understand that your point is more general than one specific type of blitz, but my point is also general:

1) blitz recognition/knowing the answers is something that young QB generally struggle with, especially vs defenses which are adept at using disguise

2) the QB who excel at reading/reacting to blitz also need to have "answers" from their gameplan and scheme

 

We'll see, but I think Allen has figured some stuff out.  Not that he still can't get better.

[ganesh]

On 9/29/2020 at 6:57 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

Its not the end of an era, but Lamar does need to be consistent throwing the ball to be successful long term. He had 35 yards at halftime. No chance to win a game if thats what you put up through the air

Great QBs have sometimes passed for 100 yards in a game; it happens when the other teams defense catches on fire. 

 

Lamar is a stud QB and will deliver championship for the Ravens

[QCity]

On 9/29/2020 at 8:36 PM, Shaw66 said:

 

 

But I think I'm correct his trajectory.  He may even win a Super Bowl, but he is not going to be an elite QB.  

 

lol The end of an era. But he's probably only going to win 1 Super Bowl going forward. What a trainwreck. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You took a crack at someone else for linking his stuff in another thread (not sure what's up with that) but actually,  Brett Kollman had one of the very best pieces explaining just this point that I've ever seen, "Kids See Ghosts" about Sam Darnold's "I'm seeing ghosts" game against the Patriots and their use of one specific form of blitz, Blitz zero.

 

In it, Kollman uses a Patriots-KC game during Mahomes 2nd year (first year starting) as an example of the point that Blitz recognition and "knowing the answers" is something that takes time - that even a generational talent such as Pat Mahomes with an excellent coaching staff and surrounding personnel was NOT prepared for it and struggled.

 

He then uses several examples to show how play selection and QB recognition interact - yes, the QB needs to recognize at the line of scrimmage what the defense is doing, but he also needs to have play options or the option to check to a different play that will be effective against what he sees.

 

I understand that your point is more general than one specific type of blitz, but my point is also general:

1) blitz recognition/knowing the answers is something that young QB generally struggle with, especially vs defenses which are adept at using disguise

2) the QB who excel at reading/reacting to blitz also need to have "answers" from their gameplan and scheme

 

We'll see, but I think Allen has figured some stuff out.  Not that he still can't get better.

 

I am not suggesting Mahomes had worked out the blitz day one or that Josh isn't improving and can't get better at it. Jackson can too by the way. My point was just it is an area for both where they still have work to do to match the current top guy or that great crop of 4 from the 00s and 10s.

 

Also I didn't take a crack at someone for linking his stuff I took a crack at the way that post was introduced. You are the mod though and you didn't have a problem with it so all is fair in love and war.

[billsfan_34]

On 9/29/2020 at 9:16 AM, TheElectricCompany said:

Say it with me..."We don't have to tear down Lamar, to prop Josh up".

 

Lamar is a phenomenal player and deserves his place at the "elite of the elite" table. Josh is well on his way to earning a seat. Both of these things can exist simultaneously.

 

Frankly, I find this take to be garbage. "The end of an era" because the MVP had one bad game?  Get outta here...

 

Shaw - you come for the king, you better not miss.

Lamar has not had an era- he is in year 3. Problem is, Lamar at times plays and is used as a tailback- he will be part of the Not For Long league.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Lamar has not had an era- he is in year 3. Problem is, Lamar at times plays and is used as a tailback- he will be part of the Not For Long league.

 

Shaw's title simply reflects the media hype around Lamar. In the MNF pre-games show they compared Mahomes- Jackson to  Kelly-Marino and Brady-Manning.  Mahomes actually qualifies for this. Including Jackson in anyway in this stratosphere at this point is laughable. Discussing Jacksons 2019 regular season as one of the great personnel regular seasons in NFL history is fair and fine.