ComradeKayAdams Posted September 28, 2020 Posted September 28, 2020 I’m a total stats nerd and still a huge believer in the powers of football analytics, but you must use these powers responsibly! FiveThirtyEight did not do so in a variety of ways. I shall highlight the two big ones: 1. The experience of the QB matters: It makes little sense to discuss performance regressions to means when you’re looking at the first 31 games of a young QB’s professional career. This is especially true for a QB prospect like Josh Allen who was so green that most draft prospects initially recommended he sit and watch for his entire first two seasons. These types of statistical analyses are perfectly fine for veteran QB’s, but not for ones on their rookie contract who didn’t come from big college programs and who entered the league with so many question marks surrounding throwing mechanics and decision-making. 2. The players around the QB matter: Between this season and last, it’s already quite obvious how big of a difference a true #1 WR has on the rest of an offense. Diggs opens up so much more space for the other receivers and the backfield, too. And now let’s look back further a year to 2018. Allen and Dawkins are the only 2018 starters on offense still playing for the Bills. The other 9? Vlad Ducasse, Russell Bodine, John Miller, Jordan Mills, Charles Clay, a broken-down McCoy, Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, and Robert Foster. I rest my case. 1
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