FiveThirtyEight - Josh Allen Article

[Che Guevara]

Not sure if this has found its way into the discussion, but Nate Silver's 538 site has an article,

 

"Is Josh Allen Actually Good Now?"  Here's the link,

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/

 

 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
fix link

[ziltoid]

Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level.

[DrDawkinstein]

How stupid

 

Quote

Josh Allen has had his share of doubters since entering the league. Perhaps his most outspoken critic — Jalen Ramsey — will be playing across the line of scrimmage from him this Sunday.

 

Ramsey, a starting cornerback for the Los Angeles Rams, infamously described Allen as “trash” after the Bills selected him with the seventh overall pick in the 2018 draft. At the end of Allen’s 2018 rookie season, there weren’t many who would argue with Ramsey’s assessment

 

Except for maybe Jalen Ramsey...

 

[IgotBILLStopay]

clickable link

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/

 

Another negative nancy who confuses beliefs and preferences.

 

Quote

Given the Bills’ opponents so far, this should probably give us pause. Both the Jets and the Dolphins are rated as bottom-10 teams by our Elo rating system, while the Rams, the Bills’ upcoming Week 3 opponent, are a top-10 team.

 

Everyone who has something negative to say about Allen uses the argument that the Dolphins and Jets suck.

 

First, this is early in the year with too small a sample. If the Bills did well, their opponents, by construction, have to suck. Cant use their bad performance when facing Allen to make the argument that Allen is not strong enough since they are weak teams.

 

Second, the Dolphins (who are  supposedly so bad) just walloped the Jaguars, who walloped the Colts ... so who is weak now?

 

Edited September 25, 2020 by IgotBILLStopay

[Motorin']

16 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level.

Exactly. Except that humans are not robots with programming code that have no room for growth and development.

[eball]

This is the paragraph I take issue with:

 

For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action.

 

In what world does a QB get to operate without pressure or stay purely in the pocket?  And play-action is specifically designed to make a QB more successful.  The author says that because Josh is performing well in these "non-predictive" areas we shouldn't count on his improvement to continue?  That makes no sense to me.

[mykidsdad]

just because someone can write doesn't mean they should

[Logic]

People are gonna ***** all over the article. 

I think it's fine.

FiveThirtyEight writers are the epitome of stat nerds. 

They're not watching football games, analyzing film, or breaking down individual plays.

Very simply and specifically, they look at numbers -- a data set -- and make conclusions and predictions based off what the numbers are saying. Their conclusions are telling them Allen has improved. Their predictions are telling them his performance may regress to the mean in the coming weeks.

If people are truly that bothered by the predictions of stat nerds, I suggest they learn a new strategy: It's called "stop caring what people you've never heard of think about Josh Allen". I've been trying it out the past couple weeks, and it's working wonders. 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Logic

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, eball said:

For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action.

 

They link to a PFF article that is talking about projecting college QBs to the NFL. There's nothing there that says passing under pressure is not stable over time in the NFL.

[Doc]

What?

[TH3]

Why bother if to quote a bunch of stats if your are just going to disregard the good ones and throw out the present ones...just say TLDR - We think he sucked before...he will soon suck again.....

 

Someone here had a much better description of the  overall picture...What about all the sacks he breaks, the constant running threat, the extension of plays, the impossible 3rd down pick ups, the crazy throws that only a handful of guys can make. I watched last nights game and those QB's didn't throw a pass more that 10 yards.....all game

 

How many 3 and outs do the Bills have....seems like 1 a game...17-12 as a starter when he never was even scheduled to start year one....

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

Linky no worky

 

I edited.  Works now. 

Sometimes one has to post, then edit and hit "enter" after the link. 

I don't know why hitting "enter" work in the original posting doesn't work, but boards work in mysterious ways sometimes.

[Kelly the Dog]

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

People are gonna ***** all over the article. 

I think it's fine.

FiveThirtyEight writers are the epitome of stat nerds. 

They're not watching football games, analyzing film, or breaking down individual plays.

Very simply and specifically, they look at numbers -- a data set -- and make conclusions and predictions based off what the numbers are saying. Their conclusions are telling them Allen has improved. Their predictions are telling them his performance may regress to the mean in the coming weeks.

If people are truly that bothered by the predictions of stat nerds, I suggest they learn a new strategy: It's called "stop caring what people you've never heard of think about Josh Allen". I've been trying it out the past couple weeks, and it's working wonders. 

Fair. But stat nerds have no business evaluating certain players like Josh Allen who break the mold in several different ways. It's like taking off points for Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray because short QBs usually don't fare well in their model.

[Tortured Soul]

Does anyone know the source of this statement in note 1? 

 

"Analytics staffers on NFL teams ranked the Bills among the top five most analytically advanced in the NFL."

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, Tortured Soul said:

Does anyone know the source of this statement in note 1? 

 

"Analytics staffers on NFL teams ranked the Bills among the top five most analytically advanced in the NFL."

Four out of five dentists said they barely crack the top ten so take it with a grain of salt.

[C.Biscuit97]

51 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

clickable link

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/

 

Another negative nancy who confuses beliefs and preferences.

 

 

Everyone who has something negative to say about Allen uses the argument that the Dolphins and Jets suck.

 

First, this is early in the year with too small a sample. If the Bills did well, their opponents, by construction, have to suck. Cant use their bad performance when facing Allen to make the argument that Allen is not strong enough since they are weak teams.

 

Second, the Dolphins (who are  supposedly so bad) just walloped the Jaguars, who walloped the Colts ... so who is weak now?

 

The Jets look like complete garbage and the worst team in the nfl. But he is going to be given some good tests to provE how far he has come.

 

i don’t why people care about the media so much but if he plays well in these next few weeks, he will be given plenty of respect 

[whatdrought]

All of these pre-pubescent, never played a down of football in their life, hot takers are doubling down on Allen and praying he crashes because they were so sure he would be horrible and there’s no way their specific model could ever be wrong.

 

They’re hacks.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

36 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Summary: We think players don't improve in the NFL, and he'll quickly return to his past performance level.

 

🤷‍♂️

 

In general, habits are hard to change.  Muscle memory in athletes is hard to change.  Processing ability is hard to change.

 

There's a list of starting QB in the NFL whose accuracy and ability to read the field unquestionably improved in the NFL.  The list would include Steve Young (traded by his first team, "bust"), Drew Brees (first team drafted Phillip Rivers 'cuz they thought Brees couldn't play), Ryan Fitzpatrick (took him 5 years of playing in the league to crack 60% completions), Matt Stafford (3 years to crack 60%, 6 years to stay there consistently), Alex Smith (from "top 10 bust list" to solid starter - just took 6 years) - I'm sure I can think of others.  Sam Bradford, perhaps.  Then there are QB like Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and perhaps Mitch Trubisky who can have an all-world year with the right OC and talent around them, but regress badly when too many changes are made.  Last, there are QB like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and yes, Pat Mahomes who looked very good once they started - but who sat on the bench 1-4 years before they stepped on the field as a starter.  Would they have looked the same if they started right away?  We'll never know.

 

Of course, there is a much longer lists of QB who had "steps to take" coming into the NFL and who failed to take those steps.

 

Allen is considered suspect by the "stats geeks" because unlike many of the other QBs named above, he didn't complete a high percentage of his passes in college.  Ironically, the same stats mavens who claim to separate the effect of the talent around the QB from the QB's performance don't seem able to do this for Allen in college. Allen didn't follow the path of Russ Wilson, who actually changed programs from NC State to Wisconsin and saw his completions jump 15%.

 

The bottom line IMO is no one as yet has figured out a way to measure heart and determination and their impact on what a QB can become.  As far as one can tell, Allen is doing all the right things - his offseasons include sitting on the beach and golfing, but also clearly include intense work on his craft.  And he seems to come back better each year.

 

It's really IMO not worth getting in a lather about.  Allen has already confounded most of his pre-draft critics who seemed to predict he'd have no success at all.  Playoffs, Baby. 

 

Either his heart and determination and intelligence will allow him to solidify his improvements, or they won't.  I'm betting on the former, but if someone wants to bet on the latter they have some history on their side. 

 

The other possibility is that if he keeps trucking linebackers and DLmen, he won't last in the league.

 

 

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Jets look like complete garbage and the worst team in the nfl.

 

The Jets offense is looking like a hot mess.

 

The Jets defense is in the middle of the pack, which is actually fairly impressive given that they lost a couple of their best players and that their offense hasn't given them much help.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

🤷‍♂️

 

In general, habits are hard to change.  Muscle memory in athletes is hard to change.  Processing ability is hard to change.

 

There's a list of starting QB in the NFL whose accuracy and ability to read the field unquestionably improved in the NFL.  The list would include Steve Young (traded by his first team, "bust"), Drew Brees (first team drafted Phillip Rivers 'cuz they thought Brees couldn't play), Ryan Fitzpatrick (took him 5 years of playing in the league to crack 60% completions), Matt Stafford (3 years to crack 60%, 6 years to stay there consistently), Alex Smith (from "top 10 bust list" to solid starter - just took 6 years) - I'm sure I can think of others.  Sam Bradford, perhaps.  Then there are QB like Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and perhaps Mitch Trubisky who can have an all-world year with the right OC and talent around them, but regress badly when too many changes are made.  Last, there are QB like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and yes, Pat Mahomes who looked very good once they started - but who sat on the bench 1-4 years before they stepped on the field as a starter.  Would they have looked the same if they started right away?  We'll never know.

 

Of course, there is a much longer lists of QB who had "steps to take" coming into the NFL and who failed to take those steps.

 

Allen is considered suspect by the "stats geeks" because unlike many of the other QBs named above, he didn't complete a high percentage of his passes in college.  Ironically, the same stats mavens who claim to separate the effect of the talent around the QB from the QB's performance don't seem able to do this for Allen in college. Allen didn't follow the path of Russ Wilson, who actually changed programs from NC State to Wisconsin and saw his completions jump 15%.

 

The bottom line IMO is no one as yet has figured out a way to measure heart and determination and their impact on what a QB can become.  As far as one can tell, Allen is doing all the right things - his offseasons include sitting on the beach and golfing, but also clearly include intense work on his craft.  And he seems to come back better each year.

 

It's really IMO not worth getting in a lather about.  Allen has already confounded most of his pre-draft critics who seemed to predict he'd have no success at all.  Playoffs, Baby. 

 

Either his heart and determination and intelligence will allow him to solidify his improvements, or they won't.  I'm betting on the former, but if someone wants to bet on the latter they have some history on their side. 

 

The other possibility is that if he keeps trucking linebackers and DLmen, he won't last in the league.

 

 

 

The Jets offense is looking like a hot mess.

 

The Jets defense is in the middle of the pack, which is actually fairly impressive given that they lost a couple of their best players and that their offense hasn't given them much help.

 

 

The Jets gave up 31 to a 49ers team that lost their qb, rb, was already playing without their star TE, and starting 2 wrs.  I think the only reason the Jets aren’t even lower is because the Bulls took their foot of the gas and 49ers are really banged up. They are really bad.

[Mango]

Thought this was an interesting read. I hope they come back to it as the season progresses. I am interested to see how this plays out based on their “important” metrics.