Week 3 always a bellweather

[WideNine]

On 9/25/2020 at 8:33 AM, SCBills said:

Good post OP.   It’s a long season, and one game doesn’t make it, but Week 3 is very interesting with a lot of intriguing match-ups.  
 

Miami is a great example.  Preseason sleeper hype, start out 0-2 against two, perceived to be, good teams.  All the hype dissipates and then they absolutely annihilate a Jags team that started getting the sleeper hype Miami once held.  
 

I think Miami was a decent win for us.  I don’t think they’re a playoff team, but they aren’t an easy win for opposing teams when “good” Fitz is out there. 

 

 

Thought the same thing with all the qualififying * after the Bills wins. I was thinking the Phins were a scrappy team that could hang with a lot of teams if Fitz played Iike he did against us and boom, they thrash the Jags.

 

Goes to show that there is too much focus on the w/l column and not enough real sports effort to watch teams and have an informed evaluation.

 

On to the Rams.

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by WideNine

[Talley56]

I recall 3 years ago after the first two weeks Buffalo struggled to beat the “horrible” Jets in week 1 then lost to Carolina in week 2.  At that point, hardly anyone thought that would be “the year”.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 9/25/2020 at 10:33 AM, SCBills said:

Good post OP.   It’s a long season, and one game doesn’t make it, but Week 3 is very interesting with a lot of intriguing match-ups.  
 

Miami is a great example.  Preseason sleeper hype, start out 0-2 against two, perceived to be, good teams.  All the hype dissipates and then they absolutely annihilate a Jags team that started getting the sleeper hype Miami once held.  
 

I think Miami was a decent win for us.  I don’t think they’re a playoff team, but they aren’t an easy win for opposing teams when “good” Fitz is out there. 

 

The other point is they're in our division.  Usually, division rivals have a familiarity that can give a lesser team a bit of an extra edge.

 

Miami is a very soundly coached team with a creative OC and OC/QB combo that are extremely seasoned and comfortable together.  They don't quite have the talent to take on any team, but I believe they are gonna be a "tough out" all season. 

[ChevyVanMiller]

On 9/25/2020 at 6:58 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Yesterday's Miami win is a perfect example.  Two hard played tough losses (vs. NE & Buffalo) and many thought they are a lousy team.  They then soundly beat a Jax team that looked pretty good weeks 1 & 2. 

 

And now people are saying that Miami looks pretty solid.

 

We see this every year with teams that start 2-0 or 0-2 or seem to exceed expectations and then week three can easily change the narrative.  

 

This week you have Buffalo vs. LA and if one team wins convincingly there will be a new story.  

 

We have the same thing going to happen with teams such as the Vikings, Eagles, Jets, Giants, Chicago, Arizona, Detroit......

 

Example is Arizona everyone's darlings.  They should kick Detroit's butts, but maybe Detroit is not that bad.  Chicago is 2-0, but I expect Atlanta to beat them.....

 

Minnesota looks horrendous, but expect them to play Tennessee tough (and I think they'll win)

 

Week 3 is often one of the most interesting to me, and Buffalo & the Josh Allen love will be right in the middle of it vs. the Rams.

Your post got me to thinking about the origin of the word "bellwether." (No a, btw). Here's the definition:

 

A bellwether is an individual who either leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter. The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading the flock of sheep.

 

A castrated ram, now if that isn't a great omen for this Sunday I don't know what is.

[The Dean]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The other point is they're in our division.  Usually, division rivals have a familiarity that can give a lesser team a bit of an extra edge.

 

Miami is a very soundly coached team with a creative OC and OC/QB combo that are extremely seasoned and comfortable together.  They don't quite have the talent to take on any team, but I believe they are gonna be a "tough out" all season. 

 

I have to agree. When many were saying the Fins were "tanking" (and by that some meant purposefully losing) I found it preposterous.  Flores isn't about to tank, IMO. Don't get me wrong, I despise Miami. But they have solid coaching and are building something. 

[Billsfan1972]

Miami was terrible through the first 6-8 weeks last year and since then not too bad.  NE & Buffalo were a tough first two opponents and Jax not a great team, but played very hard the first two weeks.

 

Thus the reason for the post.  After this week a lot of narratives may change , which includes Buffalo if they lay an egg (or have a convincing win).

[Putin]

On 9/25/2020 at 10:31 AM, soflabillsfan1 said:

Except in 2011 when we beat the Pats week 3 to start 3-0 only to finish the season 6-10.

I hate you 

[MJS]

It doesn't really matter what people think of your team after week 3. It's what they think about your team after week 17 that counts.

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, WideNine said:

I was thinking the Phins were a scrappy team that could hang with a lot of teams if Fitz played Iike he did against us and boom, they thrash the Jags.

 

Goes to show that there is too much focus on the w/l column and not enough real sports effort to watch teams and have an informed evaluation.

 

Before the season the Dolphins were a trendy sleeper team, some predicted them to compete for the division. As soon as the Bills beat them suddenly they aren't a real team. I think the Dolphins are pretty mediocre but they aren't a dumpster fire like the Jets. It was a quality win, especially with our top 2 LBs out of the game.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I don’t think so. Houston blows. They are a 6 win team, IMO. Plus I put 25 on Pitt to cover....

 

I am not high on Houston I just think Pitt have been pretty unimpressive. Man Jeff Driskel nearly beat them last week.

[Doc Brown]

14 hours ago, Talley56 said:

I recall 3 years ago after the first two weeks Buffalo struggled to beat the “horrible” Jets in week 1 then lost to Carolina in week 2.  At that point, hardly anyone thought that would be “the year”.

I'm still yet to figure out how that team made the playoffs.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Before the season the Dolphins were a trendy sleeper team, some predicted them to compete for the division. As soon as the Bills beat them suddenly they aren't a real team. I think the Dolphins are pretty mediocre but they aren't a dumpster fire like the Jets. It was a quality win, especially with our top 2 LBs out of the game.

 

I think they are a year away from properly competing to be in the postseason and the overall W-L might not show a massive improvement from their 5-11 last year. But 6-10 on this schedule is like 8-8 on last year's. 

[Doc Brown]

On 9/25/2020 at 12:37 PM, dneveu said:

 

Jets finished 7-9 last year after a 1-7 start.  The fans saw it as - we had 3 games with terrible QBs so maybe we'll be good this year.  But they beat up on the cupcakes on the schedule much like buffalo did.  They even beat pitt and dallas.  The losses to the jags and bengals were what cost them a shot at a wildcard.  And then you have the W over buffalo's backups which is kinda meaningless. 

 

Now a year later - worse at WR, worse at CB, missing your all-pro safety... they're a worse team than last year.  

 

It's tough to start 0-2 and get the 9 or so wins that you need to get in.  Of all the 0-2 teams i'd probably give houston the best chance.  They started with the ravens and chiefs to begin the year.  There's a 3rd wildcard and they still have 6 divisional games.

I'd pry give the Eagles the best chance given how horrible that division is.  Texans are definitely 2nd though.  @Chiefs, Ravens, and @ Steelers is a brutal start to the season.  

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Every team in the nfl is capable of winning any week. It’s what makes the league fun and what make a win so special. I’m at the point where I really don’t care “who we beat” Just keep stacking wins. Let other people worry about the semantics of how “quality” the wins are. It’s not college football. There are no style points. Every win counts as 1. You need every win you can get and when it’s all over, nobody is taking away the ones that were against lesser opponents. Each week has a different set of scenarios and game plans. There are any number of reasons as to why a win might not look super impressive. Or why teams matchup better in certain weeks. Just find a way to beat the team you are playing each week and don’t look back. 

Edited September 27, 2020 by Brianmoorman4jesus

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Every team in the nfl is capable of winning any week. It’s what makes the league fun and what make a win so special. I’m at the point where I really don’t care “who we beat” Just keep stacking wins. Let other people worry about the semantics of how “quality” the wins are. It’s not college football. There are no style points. Every win counts as 1. You need every win you can get and when it’s all over, nobody is taking away the ones that were against lesser opponents. Each week has a different set of scenarios and game plans. There are any number of reasons as to why a win might not look super impressive. Or why teams matchup better in certain weeks. Just find a way to beat the team you are playing each week and don’t look back. 

Yes & no.....  This wasn't about the Bills per se, more so as to how we look at teams and that week three is generally the one where more info finally is available and can start separating the Good, Bad & Ugly. 

 

The Thursday Night game being the perfect example, as Jax was on the rise and Miami on the decline in most people's eyes.

 

Using Josh Allen, he played well vs. the Jets, but Garoppolo too did week two.  Josh owns the Fins, so this week will tell us much more about him.   

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yes & no.....  This wasn't about the Bills per se, more so as to how we look at teams and that week three is generally the one where more info finally is available and can start separating the Good, Bad & Ugly. 

 

The Thursday Night game being the perfect example, as Jax was on the rise and Miami on the decline in most people's eyes.

 

Using Josh Allen, he played well vs. the Jets, but Garoppolo too did week two.  Josh owns the Fins, so this week will tell us much more about him.   

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/

I’m not sure how anyone saw Miami on the decline. They played at NE and had a look late and then played the Bills very tough. Had a late lead and pushed Josh Allen to throw for 415 to barely squeak one out. The Jags lost to the Titans and let them score 33. They beat the Colts who have a QB that was in game 1 of a new offense after no preseason and looks beyond done. I never saw that Thursday night game as a mismatch in any way and certainly not in favor of the Jags. Minshew spent the entire game throwing passes to the RB. They suck.

[JohnNord]

Bellweather? What?

[BuffaloBillies]

Good call OP