I was WRONG about Josh Allen

[Warcodered]

36 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Then maybe you should be thanking “people like me”.  

 

But in all seriousness, your point about Allen taking a 2 win team to bowl games falls on deaf ears when you realize it didn’t happen because of superior QB play, but rather because he just happened to be the best “athlete” on the field in a very minimally talented conference- kinda like me in Little League...lol

 

And that’s ok...Anyone you talk to (except for yourself) of course, will tell you that Josh is an outlier, if he ends up working out long term...His pre NFL numbers did not project success as a pro- and that’s just the truth of the matter...it does not make people bad people or “full of BS”, as you like to put it, just because you can’t, emotionally, handle differing opinions based on statistical trends...but, best of luck to you...👍

 

 

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?

Edited September 24, 2020 by Warcodered

[ALF]

Whoever convinced the Chiefs to trade up for Mahomes is worth his weight in gold . Saying that, I'm now convinced Allen is a franchise QB , before this season I was only hopeful. 

[oldmanfan]

I think Allen has unlimited potential.  And he has looked great the last two games.  But let’s tap the brakes just a bit.  Still a lot of games to play, and as a young QB still it’s likely he’ll struggle some down the road.  But even with that, I think we’ve got our guy for the long term.

[GunnerBill]

Plenty of us were wrong about Josh. I watched a couple of those Wyoming games back over lockdown when I had nothing better to do, and I have to say, I still wouldn't draft him based on that tape. Now what I always say is the armchair amateurs like me can't sit down with the kid. We can't get a feel for the personality. We can't get him on the whiteboard and see how much he actually understands. Because almost everyone (even including me) recognised his ceiling if it all came together, but based just on what I saw on the tape as it were I believed his floor to be rock bottom.

 

I did say in the days following the draft though that I was not going to be one of those guys who sought confirmation of my opinion every time Josh missed a throw in training camp or had a clunker game as a rookie. For the most part I have been really impressed with the way he has developed in the NFL. I do think there was a small cluster of games in the middle of last year (between NE1 and CLE) where it looked like he might be starting to level out, but he didn't and he kicked on again at the end of last year and then so far in 2020 he has been outstanding as a passer. And it is about more than numbers. Yes, the numbers tell you Josh is playing better, but so much of the improvement is the little nuances of the position that to now he has always struggled with that the numbers don't show. His little slides up and around in the pocket to find the passing lane, the recognising defences and changing plays at the line, the ability to control his emotions a little more both when good and bad things happen. He has been extremely impressive.

 

So while I wouldn't have drafted him, I am mighty pleased the Buffalo Bills did.

[Mickey]

Does this mean that the Church of the Holy Completion Percentage, overwhelmed with apostates at last, is closing its doors for good? Or will we be assaulted with preachy sermons on high level analytics on Allen's DVOACRAP  percentage from every street corner the second he has anything less than a perfect game?

 

 

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?

I swear, some you guys get waaaaaaay too defensive and bent out of shape over any kind of critical analysis of Bills players- almost like a personal insult...it’s quite bizarre and can make it somewhat difficult to have any rational dialogue.

 

While all the factors you mention certainly contribute to the overall production of the player, the reason people mostly use numbers to judge players is because those other factors you’re talking about harder to quantify.

 

Sure, there are some QBs that defy what their mediocre college stats project, but not typically to the extend that Allen has- it is VERY uncommon, and he should be commended for defying those odds...it’s not an easy thing to do...I am certainly encouraged moving forward.

 

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by JaCrispy

[Mickey]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers.

 

This.

Football is not Baseball, way more variables involved. Too many fans have seen "Moneyball" one too many times. Stats are far better at telling you what happened as opposed to what will happen. Completion percentage is a good example of how stats can be helpful but also deceiving. Unaccounted for variables abound. Is the play calling uninspired? Is the OL routinely terrible? Is the offensive system predictable and poorly crafted? Do the WR's get open? Do they drop a lot of balls or are they unable to make contested catches? Is the defense awful so that the offense is forced to air it out? Is their running game nonexistent? Do they play in a brutal division with lots of good defenses with top notch secondaries? Is the coaching staff lousy? Does the offense call for lots of throws that are high reward/high risk? On and on it goes. 

 

Stats are very, very helpful, no doubt, but we shouldn't be blinded by them. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

24 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Does this mean that the Church of the Holy Completion Percentage, overwhelmed with apostates at last, is closing its doors for good? Or will we be assaulted with preachy sermons on high level analytics on Allen's DVOACRAP  percentage from every street corner the second he has anything less than a perfect game?

 

 

Well, the world couldn't rid itself of Jim Bakker, could it?

*
😁

Edited September 24, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Rebel101]

9 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

I joined this board, after the trade that allowed KC to select Patrick Mahomes and have stuck around the last few years to see how things played out.  I hung out here, speculating about all the 2018 QB's, the draft manuvering, and watched you guys all debate and discuss who you wanted the Bills to take. .....when the Bills took Allen.....I came here and put in my 2 cents.  I did NOT think Allen would make it as an NFL QB.  I was on the side of the debate that said, his completion pct is who he is, and who he's going to be.  I didn't think he could improve enough to be much more than an enticiing novelty.  I posted that opinion here numerous times.

 

I am here today to tell you.....to admit....the I was WRONG.  While I've always enjoyed watching Allen play, I'd always thought he'd ultimately be a flash in the pan in the big picture as time wore on.  He's not.  He's legit.  He's taken a big leap each season he's been in the NFL.  It's a credit to him, and especially to your coaching staff for identifying the talent, and the potential, and then actually getting Allen to progress.  I want to thank you all for allowing me to be a part of your community and give my opinion.  I have enjoyed it, and will continue to pop in from time to time.  I'm sure I'll be around when KC plays the Bills...that should be fun.  Anyhow....one more time....

 

I WAS WRONG ABOUT JOSH ALLEN.  I'll be having that crow now. 

I think the main thing that we don’t get to see is how driven he was, how determined to get and be great that he is, and how much he loves the game. His work ethic is what has brought him to this point. Really is fun to watch him grow and you have to respect the dedication the kid has for sure 

[JMF2006]

I don't think this kid has ever been given a fair shake......let me explain

 

1)Despite having a cannon arm and great athletic ability he wasn't recruited to a big school

 

2) He went to a JUCO to continue playing.

 

3) Wyoming comes calling and he basically has to carry the team.

 

4)All the prognosticators say Josh  is a long term project and will need to redshirt in the NFL for a few years.

 

5) All the people that thought this young man would never amount to anything in the NFL are having a hard time explaining themselves now and saying its just a flash in the pan thing.

 

Your not alone in having to eat crow but at least you admitted your mistake 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Thai or Vietnamese fish sauce wings are far better than Buffalo chicken wings. It’s not even a contest.

Ive never had it but I will believe it. 

[Kwai San]

I actually got interviewed at the Distillery in Rochester NY by R News when the pick was announced.  I liked it then and I REALLY like it now.  There were a few missteps along the way, no one is perfect ya know.  There are going to be some absolutely head banging moments in the future too.  Again - no one is perfect.

 

Thanks OP for a nice thread and it is good to see how many people are coming around and admitting that the kid is something special.  He is gonna have a tough row to hoe these next few weeks so I am expecting some teeth gnashing and expletive's and a few folks hopping off the wagon on this board but overall, I think the Bills have an answer at QB for the next few seasons. 

[JMF2006]

7 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

I was all about Josh Rosen. Im glad I didnt make the draft pick.

 

I thought Baker was going to be the stud QB of this draft....he had that swagger about him.

 

His swagger is really arrogance...not good and I was wrong about him.

 

When Cleveland took him 1st I wanted Josh Allen to be the pick

 

His swagger is real swagger the kind of confidence that teammates get behind and follow

Edited September 24, 2020 by JMF2006

[FTLBillsfan]

I hear there is a severe crow shortage in WNY. Back when Allen was drafted, I kind of kept quiet at first. I was not overly thrilled or upset with the pick. I expected them to pick Rosen.I started doing a little research and a few things stuck out. First raised on a farm. Anyone that knows a farmer knows that they are the hardest workers on the planet. Next was the path he took. Small High School star, no college offers at all busted his ass at Reedley College for a year before getting an offer from Wyoming where he started to show his potential. That blue collar mentality along with the "Chosen Rosen" being uncoachable, made me more comfortable with the long term expectations of the pick. Shortly after the pick, I commented here that While Rosen may have been the better Quarterback at the time, Allen was the better fit with this team and community. But as of now he has greatly exceeded my expectations. Lets see how he does against the Rams, but so far, so good

[JMF2006]

10 hours ago, StHustle said:

Must be real easy to admit this with Mahomes as your QB. 

 

The Bills didn't too bad at all with those pics Tre White.Snohwman and Edmunds

[JMF2006]

9 hours ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

I want to throw an interesting idea out there - If we had pick Mahomes that year - he would 1) not have anywhere near the stats he has compiled to this point 2) we would not have been any faster to ascend from being a perennial bottom 10 team 3) due to the smaller market stigma that Buffalo suffers from along with points 1 and 2, he would basically be viewed only slightly more favorably than Allen has been 

 

Plus we filled 3 huge holes with the picks acquired in that trade

[FTLBillsfan]

5 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

The Bills didn't too bad at all with those pics Tre White.Snohwman and Edmunds

True. And McDermott has said, at the time they were not ready for a franchise Quarterback.Remember that was a McDermott / Whaley draft. Beane was not here yet. Mahomes joined what was a perfect situation for a rookie QB. Had he been drafted by the Bills at that time the results would probably been more Sam Darnold like or IR than the way Mahomes turned out

[BigBuff423]

10 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

.....that doesn't have anything to do with it.....   It's easy to admit this because Allen has completely exceeded what I thought he'd be....if you go back and look at what I thought would happen.....it's easy to admit because I was clearly wrong about it. 

 

Honestly, kudos to you...it takes character to come onto a message board of a team that is not yours and admit a mistake. Thank you simply for owning it. You didn't have to, you could have continued to hide away in the shadows and except for a message board tough guy trying to call you out, you stepped out of the shadows on your own and honestly owned. Well done. 

 

I am honestly one who didn't know what to make of the pick. I can say my heart sank when Allen was the announced pick, but truly while sitting in a hotel room in Saratoga that night, I believed in Beane because of what he had done already and decided to Trust the Process. I still questioned it and of course those first few games had me believing we bought fools gold. But his final four games of his Rookie year showed me something. Then last year a big step and by the end of the season, even with some foolish mistakes in the Houston game, I believed Allen had everything a good QB needs, but he needed another year to take the leap into a top 5 QB. Now, who knows? Maybe he'll regress or maybe he's actually going to get better. I don't know. But I do know, based on everything I've seen and read - Allen's the guy. Full stop. No caveats. He's the QB for this team for the next 12ish years.....as long as he continues to learn to slide.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

No what it means is they ran into the critical flaw of basing things solely on numbers. Looking at the results without looking at the reasons is exactly how you miss a guy like Allen. I mean seriously  people have been saying that you needed to look at the scheme he was in, the WRs he was throwing to, and the OL protecting him since before he was drafted. But now that he seems to be turning out to actually be good your going to pretend he's some sort of unicorn that appeared out of nowhere?

Kind of disagree.  The numbers may have been misleading in projecting failure - but that doesn’t mean it was reasonable to predict success.  The fact that he was in a bad offense with no playmakers might explain why his numbers were bad, but it still leaves you with very little to project that he’d be great (or even mediocre) with a better supporting cast.

 

My issue with the pick at the time was the fact that the Bills as an organization did not have a history of developing outliers, and certainly did not seem set up to do so Josh’s rookie year (no real QB coach, no vet QB to learn behind, no receivers or offensive line).  Given the state of the roster and coaching staff, and the team’s horrible player development record going back two decades at that point, I didn’t want them taking “projects” or “risks” - I wanted them to pick someone who could run the offense quickly and cerebrally to make up for the lack of weapons.  I was worried they’d ruin a project like Josh and we’d be back to drafting another QB a few years later.

 

They - more specifically Josh - proved me wrong.  It’s simply amazing to think about the situation he was put in his first season (Peterman, no weapons, etc.) and the fact he persevered and developed is a true testament to his unique football character.  It’s a great story and I love watching the guy play every week, I wouldn’t trade him for any other QB.

[mjt328]

The pre-draft analysis on Josh Allen was not wrong.

Coming out of Wyoming, he absolutely was a high-risk prospect.  His mechanics, footwork and overall accuracy were a mess.  He couldn't read a defense, and his decision-making was very often questionable.  His production was also less than impressive, even against poor competition.  Honestly, there shouldn't be any shame from those who expected Allen to be a bust.  At the time of the draft, he needed a complete overhaul of his game.  And past history shows those kinds of QBs fail way more often than they succeed.

 

Where Allen's critics failed, was with their post-draft analysis.

 

The majority of people in Buffalo have seen this coming.  It's not really a huge surprise.  They have watched every single snap of Allen's career.... from his sloppy preseason debut backing up Nathan Peterman, to his hurdle of Anthony Barr, to the playoff breakdown in Houston, and finally to his MVP-like performance last Sunday.  They have witnessed the gradual improvement in literally every aspect of his game, the detailed refinement of his throwing mechanics, his leadership and his relentless drive to get better.  Even if his growth wasn't always showing in the stat sheet, most of us could see it with our eyes each week.  These were things we never witnessed with JP Losman, or Trent Edwards, or EJ Manuel, or any other young guy we've drafted in the past 20 years.

 

Bills fans have been laughed at and mocked for believing in Allen - mostly by online analytics sites, draft experts refusing to break from their original assessment of him, and fans who have only seen him play 2-3 times.  We kept saying that if the Bills surrounded him with some talent on offense, it was just a matter of time before things took off.  It feels good for the rest of the NFL world to finally see it too.