Do the Bills look to sign Josh to a Long term contract this year?

[Don Otreply]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

They can't do before then by rule. 

So I was right! 😁 👍

[JMF2006]

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

[Mr. WEO]

what? no.

[ColoradoBills]

12 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Allen's 5th year option will be around 17.6 million, it is the franchise tag that is north of 30 million. You can still spread his contact out over the course of that 5th year option and lower the cap hit. Give me another year with a stacked roster around him. 

 

Not sure where you got these numbers but Goff had a 5th year option worth 22.78 million.

Mahomes 5th year was 24.8 million.  Josh will be at least 26 million minimum.

 

http://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/04/2020-fifth-year-option-decision-tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

Mahomes 5th year is listed in the "Transations" listed on the right.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Not sure where you got these numbers but Goff had a 5th year option worth 22.78 million.

Mahomes 5th year was 24.8 million.  Josh will be at least 26 million minimum.

 

http://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/04/2020-fifth-year-option-decision-tracker

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

Mahomes 5th year is listed in the "Transations" listed on the right.

 

The article I read was from 2019 so maybe the 5th year option is listed as 17.6 million. Not sure how fluid the number was/is. But I would wait to do an extension until after 2021. I get the idea of spreading out the hit using that 4th year to take on some money, but the window to win with this team is now and while I get that you want to think long term you can't pass up cap space in 2021 that could be used to add or retain other players to save cap space 3-4 year from now when the team might not be in contention. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The article I read was from 2019 so maybe the 5th year option is listed as 17.6 million. Not sure how fluid the number was/is. But I would wait to do an extension until after 2021. I get the idea of spreading out the hit using that 4th year to take on some money, but the window to win with this team is now and while I get that you want to think long term you can't pass up cap space in 2021 that could be used to add or retain other players to save cap space 3-4 year from now when the team might not be in contention. 

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

im good with plenty of wrath for like 15-20m more a year

 

you arent even in the ballpark with those numbers. 

[NoSaint]

34 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

 

the big thing will be whether he gets treated like a franchise guy or a starter with question marks. 
 

the pay rate is only so different but how you structure things can vary a lot. 
 

if he’s “the guy” you can manipulate the upfront numbers with a big signing bonus, a roster bonus that you intend to convert to signing etc.... to get him cash but push the hit.

 

if he’s not a resounding and confident answer then you get stuck with a more cash to cap structure where you can get out without major issues earlier 

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

the big thing will be whether he gets treated like a franchise guy or a starter with question marks. 
 

the pay rate is only so different but how you structure things can vary a lot. 
 

if he’s “the guy” you can manipulate the upfront numbers with a big signing bonus, a roster bonus that you intend to convert to signing etc.... to get him cash but push the hit.

 

if he’s not a resounding and confident answer then you get stuck with a more cash to cap structure where you can get out without major issues earlier 

 

Come next May Josh will get the 5th year and have 45 million paid/guaranteed thru his 1st 5 years.

Your point is well taken and it really does behoove both parties to wait after the 4th year to even talk new contract.  IMO.

[Ya Digg?]

It's an insane amount of wishful thinking if you think he will sign for less than 30+ million a year because "he loves buffalo" or "loves the process" or anything like that.  That's the going rate for a franchise quarterback.  Beane knows this and that's what he is planning for.  Stop thinking he will sign for less - he won't, and let's be honest, he shouldn't if he's considered a franchise quarterback.  His agent won't let him sign for less and his teammates won't let him sign for less either.  Everyone in football knows it's a business, they all want the top guys to get paid.  If they are sold on him and think he's the franchise guy, the sooner they can sign him to an extension, the better

[billsfan89]

59 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Personally I agree with what Beane has been doing with paying up front on contract now BUT I think it's wise not to do that with Allen yet.

Get the 5th year on the books and AFTER next year start working on a contract with Josh.  I agree with the great window for this and next year.

 

As soon as the 5th year in exercised by the Bills Josh cashes in on a guaranteed 25+ million contract.  I think he is patient enough to wait one year

for the big big bucks.  At least that's what I am hoping for.

 

I worry that the Bills get so enamored with getting Josh to spread his extension over the last year of his rookie deal and the 5th year option that they end up digging into their 2021 and 2022 caps significantly and it impacts the short term ability to win. I also worry that they extend him after this season (assuming he turns in a good season) and then the league makes adjustments to Josh in 2021 and he isn't as effective and the Bills get locked into a big money deal with him for the next 3 seasons. I like Josh as much as any Bills fan but this team should for once finally be thinking short term. The window to win is open in 2020 and 2021, use it, worry about the rest later. 

 

 

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

It's an insane amount of wishful thinking if you think he will sign for less than 30+ million a year because "he loves buffalo" or "loves the process" or anything like that.  That's the going rate for a franchise quarterback.  Beane knows this and that's what he is planning for.  Stop thinking he will sign for less - he won't, and let's be honest, he shouldn't if he's considered a franchise quarterback.  His agent won't let him sign for less and his teammates won't let him sign for less either.  Everyone in football knows it's a business, they all want the top guys to get paid.  If they are sold on him and think he's the franchise guy, the sooner they can sign him to an extension, the better

yup. If he’s a top 5-10 statistical guy then $35m might be the actual hometown discount. We have people suggesting numbers closer to taysom hill than Jared Goff.

 

but if they were confident in him they could keep the cap hit low next year with the covid impacted cap dip 

 

you could give him $51m cash on a 11m cap hit with a 50m signing bonus and 1m salary as a bar napkin example but you’d be in that contract for 4 years before being able to bail if he flops. 
 

I’m not saying that’s a reasonable number/structure, but underscoring the process with easy values to wrap heads around (and type on a phone) 

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I worry that the Bills get so enamored with getting Josh to spread his extension over the last year of his rookie deal and the 5th year option that they end up digging into their 2021 and 2022 caps significantly and it impacts the short term ability to win. I also worry that they extend him after this season (assuming he turns in a good season) and then the league makes adjustments to Josh in 2021 and he isn't as effective and the Bills get locked into a big money deal with him for the next 3 seasons. I like Josh as much as any Bills fan but this team should for once finally be thinking short term. The window to win is open in 2020 and 2021, use it, worry about the rest later. 

 

 

 

I don't think they are going to sign him early as I have been saying.

[billsfan89]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

yup. If he’s a top 5-10 statistical guy then $35m might be the actual hometown discount. We have people suggesting numbers closer to taysom hill than Jared Goff.

 

but if they were confident in him they could keep the cap hit low next year with the covid impacted cap dip 

 

you could give him $51m cash on a 11m cap hit with a 50m signing bonus and 1m salary as a bar napkin example but you’d be in that contract for 4 years before being able to bail if he flops. 
 

I’m not saying that’s a reasonable number/structure, but underscoring the process with easy values to wrap heads around (and type on a phone) 

 

People also forget that there is a big time pressure from the union for players to cash in on their chance to set the market. If Josh is a proven top 10 guy whenever he is negotiating his contract he isn't taking much of a discount. Tre had 2 years left on his contract and he was still getting the highest contract at his position (until Ramsey with only 1 year left topped him.) There is no way Josh takes a discount, at best he allows the structure of the deal to be friendly to Buffalo (maybe spread the hit out if he gets a deal going into next season or front load the deal in some way.) You always pay QB's no hometown discounts here.

[NoSaint]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

People also forget that there is a big time pressure from the union for players to cash in on their chance to set the market. If Josh is a proven top 10 guy whenever he is negotiating his contract he isn't taking much of a discount. Tre had 2 years left on his contract and he was still getting the highest contract at his position (until Ramsey with only 1 year left topped him.) There is no way Josh takes a discount, at best he allows the structure of the deal to be friendly to Buffalo (maybe spread the hit out if he gets a deal going into next season or front load the deal in some way.) You always pay QB's no hometown discounts here.

honestly by hometown discount I mean maybe accept 35.5 instead of twisting arms for 36.25 kind of discussion. He might not pinch every last penny out of them but he’s not leaving much money on the table. 

 

tbe 20-25M number mentioned was quite silly 

[JMF2006]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

im good with plenty of wrath for like 15-20m more a year

 

you arent even in the ballpark with those numbers. 

 

I know he is going to get 35-40 m

 

I was just making a point that if it were a team friendly deal with lots of performance bonuses it might be better received.

[ghostwriter]

On 9/25/2020 at 8:38 AM, JMF2006 said:

If I were that kid I would not sign a new deal until it was absolutely necessary.

 

As soon as he gets big money the fans expectations could become entirely unreasonable.

 

If the so called fans don't think your living up to the huge $$  deal they turn on the player.

 

I think if he signed in the 20-25m range with lots of performance bonuses he may not suffer the wrath as much.

$20M-$25M is ultra disrespectful.. he’d get at least $30M... right above Tannehill and just behind Matt Ryan.. (about 10th overall)

[hmsmystic]

Let the year play out!  Maybe even the option year as well!

Don't rush into a franchise QB contract.  Sure it would be great for Josh, but NOT for the team at all

Overpaying too early would be a potential disaster, and the folks running the bills are too smart for that (now)

[Kmart128]

I dont know about a long term deal but it would be smart to extend him now before he gets to rich. However i dont think his agent would let him cause if Josh does end up breakingbout and continues his MVP performance then he can be in for a huge payday 

[ALF]

Lets see what the salary cap looks like after this season . Allen , Edmunds and Milano need to fit.

 

A bonus after a good season is a good idea.

Edited September 27, 2020 by ALF