PSA: The correct move is to go for 2 first when you're down 9

[buffalobillswin]

I remember users on here being confused last year when the Bills went for the 2 first when down by 9 against the Ravens and the same thing came up again when the Cowboys went for 2 first when down by 9.

 

Why is this even up for debate? It's not "new math", it's more common sense....right?

[KD in CA]

Personally, I'd kick the PAT to make it an 8 point game in that situation.   You have to ensure you get it down to a one score game.

 

If you go and miss, you give the other team the ability to strategize how to play the clock with a two score lead.

[No_Matter_What]

I agree and I noticed it too. Its pretty simple imo but somehow even some announcers don't get it. I am quite new to NFL, so judging from comment I'd say teams traditionally went for PAT first, which is weird. I guess people don't realize that you just need to covert one 2pt anyway and you only get a chance to adjust gameplan accordingly if you fail to convert it on first attempt.

Edited September 22, 2020 by No_Matter_What

[buffalobillswin]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:09 PM, KD in CA said:

Personally, I'd kick the PAT to make it an 8 point game in that situation.   You have to ensure you get it down to a one score game.

 

If you go and miss, you give the other team the ability to strategize how to play the clock with a two score lead.

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But what do you do when you miss the two point conversion and there is no time left on the clock to make it up? You also give yourself the ability to strategize on how to play the clock down two scores.

 

You can't assume you're going to convert the two on a play that historically has around a 50% conversion rate.

[Warcodered]

The entire point is you have to go for it at some point anyway might as well do it sooner so you know what situation your dealing with.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Warcodered

[TroutDog]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:21 PM, Warcodered said:

The entire point is you habe to go for it at some point anyway might as well do it sooner so you know what situation your dealing with.

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There’s psychology behind it too, right? If you get to within one score (8) it seems much more doable to the O. A two score deficit can seem too daunting. 
 

We can whine that it’s not reality but there’s a reason teams get sports psychologists. 
 

This, however, is just my opinion. 

[KD in CA]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:18 PM, buffalobillswin said:

But what do you do when you miss the two point conversion and there is no time left on the clock to make it up? You also give yourself the ability to strategize on how to play the clock down two scores.

 

You can't assume you're going to convert the two on a play that historically has around a 50% conversion rate.

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If you're behind late in the game you are already playing with urgency.

[Mike in Horseheads]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:09 PM, KD in CA said:

Personally, I'd kick the PAT to make it an 8 point game in that situation.   You have to ensure you get it down to a one score game.

 

If you go and miss, you give the other team the ability to strategize how to play the clock with a two score lead.

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agree, either way its a one score game

[JESSEFEFFER]

Whatever time is left on the clock, I'd want my team playing it with the mindset that they were playing down only one possession.  To go for 2 and miss it is to give your team a dose of negative energy.  I'd think it to be deflating.  

 

I understand the "better to know asap" thinking but there may be a teamwide negative psychological effect associated with a two point failure and a 9 point deficit.

[Warcodered]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:59 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

Whatever time is left on the clock, I'd want my team playing it with the mindset that they were playing down only one possession.  To go for 2 and miss it is to give your team a dose of negative energy.  I'd think it to be deflating.  

 

I understand the "better to know asap" thinking but there may be a teamwide negative psychological effect associated with a two point failure and a 9 point deficit.

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yes because it's less deflating when it happens later and they have less time left.🙄

Edited September 22, 2020 by Warcodered

[eSJayDee]

It's not as simple as those simple, stupid cheat-sheets that coaches initially went of off would indicate.

You have to consider the probability of each outcome & the corresponding utility of each.  Granted, the closer you come to the end of the game, the more clear cut the equations are.  Frankly, I'm kinda disappointed that more teams don't make going for 2 a more regular part of their repertoire.  If you've got a good offense against a weaker defense, one would think your expected outcome would be better going for 2 (ie you'd make it more than 50%, so your expected # of points is > 1.0 and "early" in the game I'd contend a point is a point).

[Mr. WEO]

2...first?  

 

Like, before the TD?

[WhoTom]

  On 9/22/2020 at 11:02 PM, Warcodered said:

yes because it's less deflating when it happens later and they have less time left.🙄

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For all practical purposes, if you don't make the two-point conversion, regardless of when you attempt it, the game is over. So it's not simply a matter of delaying the deflating feeling, it's making sure that you have an opportunity to win for as much of the game as possible. Missing the 2PC early means there's no hope. Kicking the PAT keeps hope alive a while longer, along with the confidence that comes with having just scored a TD.

Edited September 22, 2020 by WhoTom

[Warcodered]

  On 9/22/2020 at 11:34 PM, WhoTom said:

 

For all practical purposes, if you don't make the two-point conversion, regardless of when you attempt it, the game is over. So it's not simply a matter of delaying the deflating feeling, it's making sure that you have an opportunity to win for as much of the game as possible. Missing the 2PC early means there's no hope. Kicking the PAT keeps hope alive a while longer.

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Right but on one end you have more of a chance than the other so you might as well go with that one.

[Ecmic82]

Yes. Would much rather miss a 2 point conversion and be down 9 with 8 minutes left than miss a two point conversion and be down 2 with 10 seconds left.

 

Kind of along the same lines, when you’re down by a touchdown and a field goal (ie. between 9 and 11 points) with time running out to a degree that you KNOW that if you score you’ll have to attempt an onside kick, I’d almost always kick the field goal immediately when you get into safe field goal range, and then go for the touchdown if you recover the onside kick. I think it’s easily the best strategy in that situation.

 

But you usually see the trailing team waste time trying to get into the end zone, end up having to kick the field goal anyway, and have no time left for another possession.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Ecmic82

[MJS]

I thought they made the right choice. It gives them more information. If they miss it now they still have a bit of time to adjust. If they miss it later they have no time to adjust.

[JESSEFEFFER]

  On 9/22/2020 at 11:02 PM, Warcodered said:

yes because it's less deflating when it happens later and they have less time left.🙄

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It's game over then anyways.  Playing half the 4th quarter feeling like you're within 1 score vs knowing you need two possessions to have any chance is a big deal, imo. 

[Warcodered]

  On 9/23/2020 at 12:29 AM, JESSEFEFFER said:

It's game over then anyways.  Playing half the 4th quarter feeling like you're within 1 score vs knowing you need two possessions to have any chance is a big deal, imo. 

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Yeah I'd prefer to keep trying to win rather than cede the game to the results of the 2pt conversation.

[NoSaint]

  On 9/22/2020 at 10:24 PM, TroutDog said:

There’s psychology behind it too, right? If you get to within one score (8) it seems much more doable to the O. A two score deficit can seem too daunting. 
 

We can whine that it’s not reality but there’s a reason teams get sports psychologists. 
 

This, however, is just my opinion. 

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you mean the psychology of making bad decisions to feel better about yourself?

 

not my favorite but definitely a common thing.

[machine gun kelly]

  On 9/22/2020 at 11:33 PM, Mr. WEO said:

2...first?  

 

Like, before the TD?

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I think that’s called a field goal We-Man.