Football Outsiders Quick Reads on Josh Allen

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

 

I disagree that FO isn't acknowledging that they were probably wrong about Allen.   They put their skepticism about Allen coming out of college at the very front and center of their article, and they concluded that even if he doesn't do as well going forward, that he's at the very least developed into a decent NFL starter capable of taking the Bills to some success in the playoffs.   

 

The reality is that Allen was not a very good prospect coming out of college.  He had a rocket arm, size, and running ability but he lacked almost all the tangible skills QBs need to succeed in the NFL -- and his rookie season really only provided a glimmer of hope that he could improve.   My guess is that Allen suffered from a serious lack of competent coaching/mentoring on both the collegiate and pro levels until Ken Dorsey took him in hand last season.   Allen got better as the season went on last year, which was an encouraging sign, and he appears to have significantly  improved over the off season despite the disruptions of the normal preseason routines because of the coronavirus pandemic.  

 

A big test comes this Sunday.  The Rams aren't the Jets or the Carp.

 

How is it a big test?  Just because the Rams team is good doesn't mean their defense is great. They have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but should anyone really be scared of that D?  I'm not.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I’m a data guy myself but let’s not pretend the argument that analytics is much less predictive in a game as variable as football hasn’t been had for at least several years now.

 

Right - i think there are variables in every sport.  Being good at hitting righties is a good baseline, or being good at hitting first pitch fastballs etc.  But when its coming from someone like scherzer thats a new variable.  Same with hockey - a good corsi means you shoot more than you have shots against you.  But that doesn't take into account if you're playing d-zone starts against the other teams top line.  You should have a lower corsi when you play the mcdavid line, half the time you're not even really trying to score.  

Just now, matter2003 said:

 

How is it a big test?  Just because the Rams team is good doesn't mean their defense is great. They have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but should anyone really be scared of that D?  I'm not.

 

I think it'll be a challenge because of donald.  The WRs are varied enough that you could attack with brown and bease if ramsey does a good job shadowing diggs.  I'm much more concerned about kupp and higbee.

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-quarterback-play

 

They try to factor drops in - but the "difficulty and timing of the throw" piece is garbage.  They basically don't count screens... which is stupid.  We've run enough bad screens to know that there is something that makes them successful beyond it being an easy throw.  They don't include how a good hard count can slow a pass rush.  They don't factor how an audible or line adjustment can scheme a guy wide open.  It's an easy throw so its worth less to them - despite good quarterbacking being the reason you had the time, or understanding of the defense.  They try to value a QBs ability to buy time, but holding the ball is negative... despite no one being open... or a offensive lineman performing the assignment incorrectly.  

 

It's insanely subjective in the context of a football game.  The QB is a leader of the unit, but a function of the offensive unit.  There is so much context given to every play, primary reads to secondary reads, pre-snap to post snap adjustments.

 

I actually appreciate what FO does though - it just contextualizes the stats.  Not trying to re-invent the wheel.  

Agreed. FO is simpler and might miss some context (ie., drops by Brady's receivers this week), but overall it is more believable and more likely to pass the "do I believe your Rube Goldberg machine stats or my lyin' eyes" test. 

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Right - i think there are variables in every sport.  Being good at hitting righties is a good baseline, or being good at hitting first pitch fastballs etc.  But when its coming from someone like scherzer thats a new variable.  Same with hockey - a good corsi means you shoot more than you have shots against you.  But that doesn't take into account if you're playing d-zone starts against the other teams top line.  You should have a lower corsi when you play the mcdavid line, half the time you're not even really trying to score.  

 

I think it'll be a challenge because of donald.  The WRs are varied enough that you could attack with brown and bease if ramsey does a good job shadowing diggs.  I'm much more concerned about kupp and higbee.

 

The last time we played the Rams, Donald was invisible...they need to do whatever they did in that game.

[eball]

19 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

That’s fine, they are unabashed Patriots fan stat geeks - totally good with calling them out for being mean.  But slamming the entire analytical approach because it didn’t predict success for Allen is way too harsh.

 

Which I did not do.  I've slammed those who have held on to their pre-draft notions despite actual NFL evidence to the contrary.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

You are proving my point.  Nobody bothered to go beyond that to see if there are circumstances beyond the stats to explain things one way or the other.  Now, admittedly, that process could be exhaustive if they did it for every prospect, but even a cursory look at Allen's background would have revealed a kid who was a "late bloomer" and didn't grow up playing QB.  Who didn't know he had to send tapes to schools to get a look?  This was an easy one.

 

My arguments over the past two years have not been "black and white" -- they've looked for those exact nuances you are discussing.  Your condescending tone attempting to paint me as a simpleton is misplaced.

They are an analytics outfit, and will be the first to tell you that there can be outliers. Most QBs who put up Allen's numbers in college wash out in the NFL. It's a probability/prediction based thing. As opposed to PFF, which at this point seems to want Allen to fail to prove a prediction that is looking less and less credible every day, FO follows the data that's on offer. When the facts change, they change their minds. They are very up front about this in the piece and basically say that their prediction, which was based on data, was wrong. And bear in mind that all of these big-armed guys (Locker, Boller, Mallett, Cutler etc. etc.) -- have some contextual issues that explain away some of their weak college stats--just like Josh.

 

The one thing I'd add is team situation too. The Bills have built a good team for him. To be sure, he elevates it because he's really good. But then I look at a guy like Darnold, who often looks good, yet has no real WR threats and who has a coach calling five-yard throws until the fourth quarter when they are down 24-3. That organization may well destroy his career. He is better than he's showing, and that's because of the organization.   

Edited September 22, 2020 by dave mcbride

[dave mcbride]

Just a PS - the Jets are so stupid that they unloaded a Brinks truck for a RB who is a malcontent, sat out a year over a contract dispute with a team that always wins, has one season-ending ACL tear in his medical history, and got robbed blind by hookers who left him naked in his own bed.  I really believe that if Darnold were on the Bills, we'd all be saying that he's the best QB we've had since Kelly. At this point, I like Allen better, but Darnold is not bad. It's the Jets who are bad. They are such a terrible organization. I mean, they trade their best player (Jamal Adams) for a box of rocks, and then Greggo has the gall to say he won't like playing for Pete Carroll because it's too simple there. I mean, wtf????   

 

And another thing about Gase: Since Tannehill left Miami, he has become one of the best QBs in the league. Think about that.

Edited September 22, 2020 by dave mcbride

[eball]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Just a PS - the Jets are so stupid that they unloaded a Brinks truck for a RB who is a malcontent, sat out a year over a contract dispute with a team that always wins, has one season-ending ACL tear in his medical history, and got robbed blind by hookers who left him naked in his own bed.  I really believe that if Darnold were on the Bills, we'd all be saying that he's the best QB we've had since Kelly. At this point, I like Allen better, but Darnold is not bad. It's the Jets who are bad. They are such a terrible organization. I mean, they trade their best player (Jamal Adams) for a box of rocks, and then Greggo has the gall to say he won't like playing for Pete Carroll because it's too simple there. I mean, wtf????   

 

And another thing about Gase: Since Tannehill left Miami, he has become one of the best QBs in the league. Think about that.

 

The Jests are the new Browns.

 

Re: Darnold -- I don't dislike him, but I also don't think he has the "want to" that Josh has.  I think he could be a very good QB in the right organization but at this point I can't imagine swapping him for Allen.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Just a PS - the Jets are so stupid that they unloaded a Brinks truck for a RB who is a malcontent, sat out a year over a contract dispute with a team that always wins, has one season-ending ACL tear in his medical history, and got robbed blind by hookers who left him naked in his own bed.  I really believe that if Darnold were on the Bills, we'd all be saying that he's the best QB we've had since Kelly. At this point, I like Allen better, but Darnold is not bad. It's the Jets who are bad. They are such a terrible organization. I mean, they trade their best player (Jamal Adams) for a box of rocks, and then Greggo has the gall to say he won't like playing for Pete Carroll because it's too simple there. I mean, wtf????   

 

And another thing about Gase: Since Tannehill left Miami, he has become one of the best QBs in the league. Think about that.

 

He hasn't been surrounded by talent.  But I haven't seen him elevate others either.  

 

Gase may be a QB killer too.  The offense is so vanilla and horizontal.  They no longer have a deep threat, and the oline is still not good.  If I'm the Jets though? Tank for Trevor - and trade Darnold if you're successful. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

39 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

The last time we played the Rams, Donald was invisible...they need to do whatever they did in that game.

I was thinking that the other day. Who was the OC at the time, Was it Roman?

[dave mcbride]

10 minutes ago, eball said:

 

The Jests are the new Browns.

 

Re: Darnold -- I don't dislike him, but I also don't think he has the "want to" that Josh has.  I think he could be a very good QB in the right organization but at this point I can't imagine swapping him for Allen.

I don't want to swap him at all, but I do believe he has the "want to." He's just in a bad situation: a team with a bad, absentee owner, a brutal media market that has it in for the team for historical reasons, two years of terrible offensive line play on the books, lousy receivers, a nutcase as a coach, and a megalomanical DC who you just know is biding his time. Bad scene.  

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

 

He hasn't been surrounded by talent.  But I haven't seen him elevate others either.  

 

Gase may be a QB killer too.  The offense is so vanilla and horizontal.  They no longer have a deep threat, and the oline is still not good.  If I'm the Jets though? Tank for Trevor - and trade Darnold if you're successful. 

They gotta get rid of Gase. Tannehill's performance in TN is the proof. I'm not sure people are paying attention, but in nearly one season of play there he has been historically great - a rating of 118.5: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm. No Bills fan thought he had that in him because of his meh performance in Miami.

 

That said, I do think the Jets will take Trevor if they have the opportunity.

Edited September 22, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Real McClappy]

I'm just happy is was a stronger QB class and Allen's college career wasn't elite. If it was high level or elite he would have easily went #1 overall. A lot of real pro scouts did know and we fortunately landed him at #7.

90% of these so called "experts" are fake news.

[klos63]

8 hours ago, Gene1973 said:

A lot of those picking the Bills to win the AFCE did so before the Pats signed Newton.

signing Newton is a big deal. It certainly makes NE look much more competitive, based on the first 2 weeks.

[Shaw66]

I like Football Outsiders, but when you read what they wrote, it's easy to see that they are driven too much by their own numbers and not enough by just looking and evaluating.   

 

Their numbers under-valued Allen last year, and now they're overvaluing.    They seem to think that through two games Allen is a surprise, because their numbers jumped so much.  But I continue to feel that we've seen from Allen the last two weeks is not a surprise.   He isn't doing things fundamentally differently.  What's happened is that he's had another off-season to study and learn, he has a seasoned offensive line, and he has an improved receiving corps.   The combined result is that the numbers have gone up, but it was pretty predictable.  

 

People were just two negative about Allen last year, when it was apparent that he was on his way to becoming a solid starter and probably more. 

[bobobonators]

11 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

An interesting take on him, these two games and his first two years.  Funny how analytics people see the same thing and come to such different conclusions.  Some voodoo math going on here.  #1 vs. PFFs #12?

 

Quick Reads on Josh

Comes down to having an agenda at times. 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Their numbers under-valued Allen last year, and now they're overvaluing.    They seem to think that through two games Allen is a surprise, because their numbers jumped so much.  But I continue to feel that we've seen from Allen the last two weeks is not a surprise.   He isn't doing things fundamentally differently.  What's happened is that he's had another off-season to study and learn, he has a seasoned offensive line, and he has an improved receiving corps.   The combined result is that the numbers have gone up, but it was pretty predictable.  

 

I think he is doing something fundamentally different on his deep throws this year. Adding Diggs didn't turn him into a great deep passer, he has just improved a ton. On touch passes his mechanics also look entirely different, it's almost like he's side arming them to take some heat off the ball. He's now consistently putting his longer thows on an arc so the receiver can run underneath them and pick up YAC. There were glimpses of that later in the season last year but it was never a sure thing that he would turn that weakness into a strength. It was also something he HAD to do to become a top tier passer, which is why people had legitimate doubts about him becoming a consistent top 10 QB.

 

So I don't know if Allen throwing for over 700 yards in just 2 games was as predictable as you say. But you do make a good point about his improved receiving corps. The one problem with DVOA (and any other stat for that matter) is it doesn't account for supporting cast. Allen was not the biggest problem with the offense last year. The biggest problem was making John Brown a #1 WR and Zay/Duke/Foster/McKenzie the #2. It isn't possible to have a top tier passing attack with that receiving corps unless Aaron Rodgers in his prime is your QB.

 

Everyone is fawning over his deep pass to Diggs along the right sideline but that exact pass was thrown perfectly and dropped multiple times last year. DVOA can't account for that. The pass that looked like it was about to be intercepted where Diggs had to go high for the catch was actually an incredible throw, but I'm sure Allen could have made that throw last year if he had someone capable of making the catch. The TD to Davis is another example. Diggs getting in front of the defender and toe tapping the sideline, another one. Those are the kinds of tough catches every top QB in the league has been able to rely on the past couple years. Look at Watson without Hopkins so far. Of course that stuff makes a huge difference to Allen's production.

 

What's happening with our offense so far is Allen has clearly gotten a lot better in certain areas he struggled in, and simultaneously a greatly improved supporting cast has made his strengths look even better. It's the exact scenario so many of us dreamed about in the offseason.

Edited September 23, 2020 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think he is doing something fundamentally different on his deep throws this year. Adding Diggs didn't turn him into a great deep passer, he has just improved a ton. On touch passes his mechanics also look entirely different, it's almost like he's side arming them to take some heat off the ball. He's now consistently putting his longer thows on an arc so the receiver can run underneath them and pick up YAC. There were glimpses of that later in the season last year but it was never a sure thing that he would turn that weakness into a strength. It was also something he HAD to do to become a top tier passer, which is why people had legitimate doubts about him becoming a consistent top 10 QB.

 

So I don't know if Allen throwing for over 700 yards in just 2 games was as predictable as you say. But you do make a good point about his improved receiving corps. The one problem with DVOA (and any other stat for that matter) is it doesn't account for supporting cast. Allen was not the biggest problem with the offense last year. The biggest problem was making John Brown a #1 WR and Zay/Duke/Foster/McKenzie the #2. It isn't possible to have a top tier passing attack with that receiving corps unless Aaron Rodgers in his prime is your QB.

 

Everyone is fawning over his deep pass to Diggs along the right sideline but that exact pass was thrown perfectly and dropped multiple times last year. DVOA can't account for that. The pass that looked like it was about to be intercepted where Diggs had to go high for the catch was actually an incredible throw, but I'm sure Allen could have made that throw last year if he had someone capable of making the catch. The TD to Davis is another example. Diggs getting in front of the defender and toe tapping the sideline, another one. Those are the kinds of tough catches every top QB in the league has been able to rely on the past couple years. Look at Watson without Hopkins so far. Of course that stuff makes a huge difference to Allen's production.

 

What's happening with our offense so far is Allen has clearly gotten a lot better in certain areas he struggled in, and simultaneously a greatly improved supporting cast has made his strengths look even better. It's the exact scenario so many of us dreamed about in the offseason.

I agree with much of this. 

 

I don't agree that he's throwing it differently.  Well, he is, as I said elsewhere just sort of flipping the ball - even the deep ball to Brown, he didn't really wind up and heave it.  And I agree, he put air under it, which is a change.  But the deep ball up the right side to Diggs, the one Diggs dove for, was on a line, just like he threw deep last season.  No air.  

 

And he's thrown those 20 to 20 yard crossing routes the same way for three years now.  

 

I'm sure there are little things about his mechanics that have changed, but the real changes are simple.   He has better receivers and better protection, so he has time to find the guy who's wide open and to deliver the ball in rhythm.  He could do that last season, he just didn't have nearly as many opportunities as he has this season.  And the other change is that he knows the offense and is seeing the field better.  He's getting into the right play, he knows what he's doing, and he's letting his natural ability make the plays.  

 

I really don't think the guy went through some enormous remake in the off-season.   He's just progressing.  

 

My comment about the Outsiders, and plenty of other people, too, was that they weren't looking at the guy last season.  They weren't seeing what he was doing.  Statistically, Trubisky and Allen were about the same guy.  But anyone with a brain watching the two guys could see that Allen was the better quarterback, by far, even last season but especially as far as the future was concerned.   People just kept letting their preconceptions of Allen control their thinking.  

 

All you had to do was look at him.  To me, it was obvious.  

[ndirish1978]

I don't get why PFF bothers people. That website is just a bunch of nerds who've never played football who managed to create a niche market for their made up stats and rely on clicks from baiting people to drive up their net traffic to justify their existence. Bills fans are legion and have a strong online presence, but you can pick on that market because it is comparatively small. Is anyone really surprised they troll us?

 

PFF takes up too much real estate in some of your heads, living up there rent free. I don't know the PFF people's individual names, just like I don't remember my college calc teacher's name - I recommend more people take this same approach for your mental health.

[Beast]

I always compared Allen's game to John Elway's game. Same style, same cannon, etc.

[LeviF]

19 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

If Jared Goff and Josh Allen go on to have solid or better careers as NFL QBs, it's likely to  open the door for other QBs from smaller programs or even lower divisions to get serious consideration as top draft picks in future drafts. 

 

Not to nitpick, but didn't Goff go to Cal?  Did you mean someone else?