Weekly PFF Hate

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

The fact people bring up PFF on this site still after they mentioned Duck in the same breathe as Josh, is the issue that needs 350 pages of understanding.

 

Nah.  Two lines will do it:  PFF was trolling Bills Mafia.  Sam Momson told us none of them actually believed it.

[DCOrange]

21 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Just read an article on the Athletic about the PFF system, sounds like Fairburn contracted them to understand why.   Not endorsing or complaining,  just summarizing some of the points given of how their grades are determined:

 

The explanation given is they aren't grading purely off stats.  For example QB's will get negative grades for passes that could have been intercepted, but given a positive grade for dropped passes.  Also the QB doesn't get as much credit for completing a pass to a wide open receiver, in that case the receiver gets the better grade for getting himself open where as throwing a completion into a tight window does give the QB better grades.

 

It also stated, (didn't exactly understand the logic here), but negative grades will make the grades worse early in the season when less data to analyze where as the season progresses, you don't notice the negative stuff in the overall score as much.  It also stated that it's easier for a QB to generate negative grades than positive ones.

 

It gave a couple of examples of scores given prior where fans and even coaches screamed about them

 

Aaron Rodgers had a grade of -.08, which was average and he threw for 333 yards, 5 TD's, zero interceptions. But he also had a fumble, a dropped int and 3 TD's  credited more to great  plays by Randall Cobb. McCarthy screamed about the grades, but last summer, he met with them and went over that game and came away with a good understanding of why the score was bad and agreed that their assessment was accurate.

 

Another game Nick Foles threw 400 yards, 7 TD's  and zero ints and had a score around what Allen got.  Kelly the coach at the time went nuts too, but again after sitting down with them and understanding what goes into their grading system, came away as a believer.

 

So to some of the points above, is their grading system secret? no but alot more than the obvious goes into it?  Like to see how they'd grade Farve, well Rodgers didn't make out too well!

Basically what they're saying is that the turnover-worthy plays are generally few and far between (with some exceptions), so if you start off the season with like 4 TWPs like Allen has, that will weigh on his grade more right now than it will if he goes another 100 passes without throwing a TWP (which is feasible).

19 hours ago, Just Joshin' said:

I did and learned that their methodology is flawed.  If Allen rifles a throw into tight coverage and makes the play, it is a negative because it could have been intercepted.  Feels good on first review.

 

Now let's put some context:  if he completes a checkdown on third down the throw counts more than the above throw to convert the 3rd and keep the drive going.  He made the throw and it was not almost intercepted, here is a cookie.  Team lost but nice throw.

 

In the case above what if Allen knew it would be close but he also knew he had the strength and touch to make the play.  So he gets punished?

 

Playing the "what if" game is a losers analysis.  Over the course of time those things will even out.  If he is reckless then it will show up in the stats.  if he is successful, it will show up in the stats. 

 

Context is also important on when in the game the plays occur:  is it garbage time with a prevent?  Does that score positive points vs a hard fought first half?

 

So back to @thebandit27 question: do you consider Darnold's performance better than Allen's last week?

This simply isn't true though. It happens every year where we see a QB like Mariota throw like 15 INTs on 10 INTable passes while someone else throws 10 INTs on 30 INTable passes.

 

Regarding Darnold though, I went back and watched all of his passes this week and I don't really get it personally. I counted two or three passes that could have been picked off. His TD pass was great and he did lose about 100 yards on dropped passes and penalties but for the most part he was just checking it down all game and still throwing near INTs. They specifically talked about Brady's performance this past week in The Athletic article and that one is a much better case for their system; he legitimately played great and just got screwed by his receivers. Darnold was nothing special.

[DCOrange]

7 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

"Those who are trained in Pro Football Focus’ grading system get a 350-page manual on what to look for at each position. Players are assigned a score on each play up to +2 or as low as -2 in increments of 0.5."

 

Thats the only new information.  And why don't they factor things like velocity?  That's an important weapon he uses to be more effective.  Firing balls through tight windows can be huge and should be scored highly rather than docked for being "risky".

They are scored highly. People are misconstruing tight window throws with turnover worthy plays. If Allen threads the needle to his WR, that is graded more positively than pretty much any other throw. If Allen throws it into a tight window and the DB drops the pass, that is graded negatively.

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

So the fact that he has more positive graded plays than any other qb but is still ranked lower than 11 other qb means they are adding bias to their system then doesn't it? 

 

Technically it's only 9 QBs ahead of him in terms of passing grade, and no, because his turnover worthy plays have weighed his grade down.

 

Jameis has been top 3 in positively graded throws every year of his career I believe and he's never had a good PFF grade overall. Allen's start to this season is a much less extreme version of that as Allen is still rated in the top 10.

[K-9]

Does PFF have any idea how ridiculous they sound when they say that this QB throws a prettier incompletion than that QB?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

53 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Basically what they're saying is that the turnover-worthy plays are generally few and far between (with some exceptions), so if you start off the season with like 4 TWPs like Allen has, that will weigh on his grade more right now than it will if he goes another 100 passes without throwing a TWP (which is feasible).

 

True, and I suppose conversely a few amazing passes/plays early in the season can elevate your score too.

[4merper4mer]

59 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Does PFF have any idea how ridiculous they sound when they say that this QB throws a prettier incompletion than that QB?

They ranked Tre as the 18th best CB in 2019, so below average for a CB1.  That's really all I need to see.  Allen gives them things to be arbitrary about I guess but I'm sorry, there simply are not 17 corners better than Tre and I really don't think there is anything to discuss there.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Does PFF have any idea how ridiculous they sound when they say that this QB throws a prettier incompletion than that QB?

I enjoyed how very complimentary Monsoon was of that Darnold TD he threw back against his body as if that exact same pass hadn’t been picked off by Milano the week prior. ‘Interceptable passes’ smh.

 

They don’t have a ‘system’. They don’t care about consistency in their analysis. PFF remain hacks and can be safely ignored.

[C.Biscuit97]

“I hate this website.  It’s so stupid and it makes me so mad.”

 

immediately checks out the website and proceeds to get mad!

[Warcodered]

 

 

 

[CSBill]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

 

 

Fair analysis. Give them props when they are deserve.

Edited September 29, 2020 by CSBill

[Billsfan1972]

Still muted....  Okay, but you can see they still want to be correct and making excuses. 

 

They did get it right that it is "Must see TV"

Edited September 29, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[ILBillsfan]

Some credit ... was nice to see them acknowledge he knows what he needs to work on and has been improving those points to them game.  I am enamored to watch Josh continue to grow and develop as I think this train is ahead of schedule. 

[Doc]

Still don’t care what they think. 

[HappyDays]

 

Wallace intercepted Goff on a throw that was uninterceptable. Incredible!

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Wallace intercepted Goff on a throw that was uninterceptable. Incredible!

 

No, it wasn't "turnover worthy."  Just like the other INT he threw in the Cowboys game.

 

[HappyDays]

 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Wallace intercepted Goff on a throw that was uninterceptable. Incredible!

Wilson also underthrew Metcalf vs Cowboys, was lucky to get away w/incompletion

[The Wiz]

24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Pretty sure Goff threw I pick to Wallace.  Unlike the pick throw by Allen.

[DCOrange]

34 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Pretty sure Goff threw I pick to Wallace.  Unlike the pick throw by Allen.

Yeah they determined that Wallace’s INT was due to the WR stopping his route. Similar to Wilson who got picked on a dropped pass by his TE

[Don Otreply]

Pff is a group of ex frat boys trying desperately to appear to be doing adult things, they give the impression that their parents still buy their toilet paper for them...