Mike Lombardi Breaks Down Allen, Darnold and Mayfield - $40M Club?

[Captain Hindsight]

46 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

I don't see Josh Allen as the break the bank type.

Kirk Cousins got 90 million fully guaranteed. I would be willing to bet Josh makes much much more than that 

[Augie]

24 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Would you say that he has progressed from "raw" to "rare"?

 

I’d go more with a nice med-rare, but unlike the sin that is a well done steak, in QB’s it’s a great thing!  I hope we get there! 

[BarkLessWagMore]

I sure hope the Brownies pay Mayfield $40M/yr. It will set their franchise back for many years.

[Magox]

I look at Allen and I view it as a Frankenstein project and little by little he is being built into a bad ass QB.  He came in extremely raw with all these physical tools, the thing he really had going for him in his first year was his rocket arm, great mobility, extreme competitiveness and desire to be better.  That alone made made the offense entertaining to watch but he lacked the precision, awareness and confidence.  

 

Then his second year, he had all the same traits as the first year but then he became slightly more accurate, he was able to see the field a little better and his intermediate range passes were much more accurate and overall he was more precise but still lacked the deep pass accuracy and his episodes of "Josh! WTF did you just do?"/

 

Now he's in year three and he has built upon everything that he has and now appears to be seeing the field much better, he is more patient in the pocket, more consistent with his rhythm passing.  

 

He's a work in progress but the great thing is that he is willing to do what it takes to get better and year after year he is continuing to ascend.

 

Let's just hope he can connect better with his deep passes and stop with the fumbles.  If he can do that, which I believe he will, we have a big time baller as our QB.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

I look at Allen and I view it as a Frankenstein project and little by little he is being built into a bad ass QB.  He came in extremely raw with all these physical tools, the thing he really had going for him in his first year was his rocket arm, great mobility, extreme competitiveness and desire to be better.  That alone made made the offense entertaining to watch but he lacked the precision, awareness and confidence.  

 

Then his second year, he had all the same traits as the first year but then he became slightly more accurate, he was able to see the field a little better and his intermediate range passes were much more accurate and overall he was more precise but still lacked the deep pass accuracy and his episodes of "Josh! WTF did you just do?"/

 

Now he's in year three and he has built upon everything that he has and now appears to be seeing the field much better, he is more patient in the pocket, more consistent with his rhythm passing.  

 

He's a work in progress but the great thing is that he is willing to do what it takes to get better and year after year he is continuing to ascend.

 

Let's just hope he can connect better with his deep passes and stop with the fumbles.  If he can do that, which I believe he will, we have a big time baller as our QB.

Great post magox. Agree. There is some really good teams coming up after the fish.  But love Josh allen. Excited to see him play rest of the year. And on forward.

[Coach Tuesday]

28 minutes ago, Magox said:

I look at Allen and I view it as a Frankenstein project and little by little he is being built into a bad ass QB.  He came in extremely raw with all these physical tools, the thing he really had going for him in his first year was his rocket arm, great mobility, extreme competitiveness and desire to be better.  That alone made made the offense entertaining to watch but he lacked the precision, awareness and confidence.  

 

Then his second year, he had all the same traits as the first year but then he became slightly more accurate, he was able to see the field a little better and his intermediate range passes were much more accurate and overall he was more precise but still lacked the deep pass accuracy and his episodes of "Josh! WTF did you just do?"/

 

Now he's in year three and he has built upon everything that he has and now appears to be seeing the field much better, he is more patient in the pocket, more consistent with his rhythm passing.  

 

He's a work in progress but the great thing is that he is willing to do what it takes to get better and year after year he is continuing to ascend.

 

Let's just hope he can connect better with his deep passes and stop with the fumbles.  If he can do that, which I believe he will, we have a big time baller as our QB.

 

Good post especially the part about his attitude - his football character is off the charts high and it's the biggest reason why he's on track to out-perform his peers from that class (except perhaps Lamar).

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

[NOTE: $$ SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED $$]

 

Really good breakdown by Mike Lombardi re: whether any of Allen, Darnold or Mayfield is in line for a $40 million payday.

 

"Allen’s yards per attempt in the opener against the Jets was 6.78, well below what he will need when the competition gets stronger. But for now, Allen looks more confident. He threw the ball more as a passer than a thrower, something Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh emphasized all the time. Walsh was never enamored with strong, powerful arms, as he often felt those players wanted to show off their arms and not make the easy, more catchable throws. He wanted passers of the football, not throwers, and on Sunday Allen looked more like a passer. Beane cannot say for certain whether Allen should be a $40 million dollar man just yet — he needs more games,  probably the whole season. But if he continues to play at the level he did on Sunday, the Club will have a new member."

 

and

 

"Darnold is not more accurate than Allen, though he does not have the obvious wildness or erratic throws that come when watching Allen, either. Darnold’s lack of accuracy is more subtle, harder to judge, often leaving you to question whether the receiver or the thrower is at fault. Most of the time, Darnold gets that benefit of the doubt, which I am not sure is correct."

 

I actually think that comparison with Darnold is bang on. Josh throws more wild, off target balls.... and they have always been in his game. But he also throws a hell of a lot of right on point in tight window balls. Whereas Darnold might not miss as badly when he misses.... but his ball placement at his best isn't as good as Josh's. When Josh gets in rhythm he throws absolute darts. 

 

EDIT: just to say it is why I have consistently argued since Josh became the starter that having him throw 20-25 times a game and trying to prop him up with the run is a waste of time because he isn't throwing enough to get in that rhythm where the pin point darts start flowing. I don't think him having a career high in attempts (he had the same in the playoff game but that include OT) and posting one of his best completion %s is coincidence. It is who he is. Let him throw.

Edited September 15, 2020 by GunnerBill

[billrooter]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

I don't see Josh Allen as the break the bank type.

Same here Aldo, hopefully he takes a decent discount for the team and the fact he seems to love to play in Buffalo and with this team. That would obviously help us to keep the decent nucleus we have at this point.

[BobbyC81]

4 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

Josh went to junior college (where he grew like 5 inches) and then to Wyoming and was hurt at Wyoming and came out after his junior year. The kid had half the experience of other 1st rounders coming to the NFL. Factor that his college reps were against scrubs, and in many ways Josh Allen was a solid year or two behind the other 1st round QBs taken in 2018. JA is still a pup just now becoming a DOGG!

I don’t see how anyone can say he’s not better than the 2 guys taken before him.

[Mr. WEO]

He's in the 3rd year of his rookie contract.  Beane, of all people, is not going to squander another year of cheap Josh to make him a member of the "40 million club" after this year, no matter how he performs.  That would be dumb.

[SirAndrew]

5 hours ago, Yav said:

I don't get the complaint of 6.78 YPA. Brady would dump the ball off fast and the WR would break tackles or there would be a pick and they won with that formula and it was never a complaint for NE.

YPA is a pretty lame and useless stat imo. I can be a stat nerd, but I can’t see where it ever tells me much about how the QB actually played. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Long, long way to go.  These are the contracts that murder your franchise.  You can’t miss on paying qbs.  There are like 3-4 guys who are actually worth this type of deal. 

3 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

YPA is a pretty lame and useless stat imo. I can be a stat nerd, but I can’t see where it ever tells me much about how the QB actually played. 

Not really.  Brady doesn’t have a strong arm and has played with some garbage receivers but has a career 7.5 ypa.  Great qbs are point guards Who get the ball to their weapons in space so they can make things happen.  

[Chicharito]

Hasn’t Allen already stated that he doesn’t desire to be the highest paid because it means the team wouldn’t have money for other players to help the team?

[Virgil]

At this point, Allen and Lamar are going to get the biggest paydays of the draft class.  
 

Who woulda thought?

[CincyBillsFan]

I know I've been beating this dead horse on a couple of threads but YPA is not the same on a WINDY day at Rich Stadium as it is on a calm weather day or in a dome.  That this so called expert with the famous name doesn't get that is head scratching.  Pushing the ball downfield last Sunday was a recipe for failure. 

 

 

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Allen's development into becoming a good NFL QB was stunted so much in his early years that he needs to make decent improvements

every offseason.  He took a step last year and though it's only 1 game this year it looks like another big step is being taken.

 

That is all I can really ask of him.  Keep it up Josh and keep a handle on the ball.

How was his development stunted in his early years?  Not sure I buy this

[billsbackto81]

8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He has been saying that for a long time, sounds like Sunday change his mind a bit.

Dan Orvlosky has also been back pedaling a bit too on his initial perception of Josh.

[Saxum]

10 hours ago, mykidsdad said:

Josh went to junior college (where he grew like 5 inches) and then to Wyoming and was hurt at Wyoming and came out after his junior year. The kid had half the experience of other 1st rounders coming to the NFL. Factor that his college reps were against scrubs, and in many ways Josh Allen was a solid year or two behind the other 1st round QBs taken in 2018. JA is still a pup just now becoming a DOGG!

 

Appropriate then WR we traded for.  DOGG DIGGS.

[North Buffalo]

6 hours ago, JohnNord said:

How was his development stunted in his early years?  Not sure I buy this

Because he went to juco and then Wyoming... hard to say but if he had better coaching... dont think he was referring to time with the Bills... other than he had to play too soon.

[SoTier]

13 hours ago, Augie said:

 

In fact, I found some of his check downs to be extremely encouraging.  A sign of progress and growth.

 

I found the Bills using screens even more encouraging since these were largely missing from the Bills offense in the recent past.  I think it speaks to Allen's development as a QB that the Bills not only ran a bunch of screens but ran them successfully.  It shows that he's mastering an expanded playbook, which is something every QB needs to do.