Mike Lombardi Breaks Down Allen, Darnold and Mayfield - $40M Club?

[Coach Tuesday]

[NOTE: $$ SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED $$]

 

Really good breakdown by Mike Lombardi re: whether any of Allen, Darnold or Mayfield is in line for a $40 million payday.

 

"Allen’s yards per attempt in the opener against the Jets was 6.78, well below what he will need when the competition gets stronger. But for now, Allen looks more confident. He threw the ball more as a passer than a thrower, something Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh emphasized all the time. Walsh was never enamored with strong, powerful arms, as he often felt those players wanted to show off their arms and not make the easy, more catchable throws. He wanted passers of the football, not throwers, and on Sunday Allen looked more like a passer. Beane cannot say for certain whether Allen should be a $40 million dollar man just yet — he needs more games,  probably the whole season. But if he continues to play at the level he did on Sunday, the Club will have a new member."

 

and

 

"Darnold is not more accurate than Allen, though he does not have the obvious wildness or erratic throws that come when watching Allen, either. Darnold’s lack of accuracy is more subtle, harder to judge, often leaving you to question whether the receiver or the thrower is at fault. Most of the time, Darnold gets that benefit of the doubt, which I am not sure is correct."

Edited September 15, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[krf139]

On WFAN last week, he said Allen would surely struggle with accuracy vs the Jets. 

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, krf139 said:

On WFAN last week, he said Allen would surely struggle with accuracy vs the Jets. 

 

He has been saying that for a long time, sounds like Sunday change his mind a bit.

[Logic]

But did you see that play where he overthrew John Brown?!?!?!?!?!

 

BUST!!!!!

#LOLZ #PFF #ConfirmationBias

Edited September 15, 2020 by Logic

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

He has been saying that for a long time, sounds like Sunday change his mind a bit.

 

Allen's development into becoming a good NFL QB was stunted so much in his early years that he needs to make decent improvements

every offseason.  He took a step last year and though it's only 1 game this year it looks like another big step is being taken.

 

That is all I can really ask of him.  Keep it up Josh and keep a handle on the ball.

[whatdrought]

I don’t like his YPA argument at all. In a vacuum that stat can be indicative, but in the context of a game wherein Allen took everything the defense gave him and more, it makes less sense. 

[Yav]

I don't get the complaint of 6.78 YPA. Brady would dump the ball off fast and the WR would break tackles or there would be a pick and they won with that formula and it was never a complaint for NE.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

I don't see Josh Allen as the break the bank type.

[todd]

We all knew Allen was a project when he was drafted, and the Bills didn’t want him to play his first year. Peterman was slated to be the starter, and played well enoug for the bills to trade AJ McCarronnnn to Oakland. Huge mistake. Peterman was awful. Huge miscalculation by the Bills and Allen was starter before he was ready. 
 

His arrow is pointing up, though. He was really raw coming out of college, and still has some rawness he needs to work out. Arrow pointing up.

[mykidsdad]

Josh went to junior college (where he grew like 5 inches) and then to Wyoming and was hurt at Wyoming and came out after his junior year. The kid had half the experience of other 1st rounders coming to the NFL. Factor that his college reps were against scrubs, and in many ways Josh Allen was a solid year or two behind the other 1st round QBs taken in 2018. JA is still a pup just now becoming a DOGG!

[Ecmic82]

8 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don’t like his YPA argument at all. In a vacuum that stat can be indicative, but in the context of a game wherein Allen took everything the defense gave him and more, it makes less sense. 

Illustration:

 

Allen was 7-9 on third down throws. Of those seven completions, six were for a first down (the seventh got the Bills into a 4th and 1, which they converted).

 

Average yards to go on those 7 completed attempts: 5 yards

Average completion yardage on those seven attempts: 6.5 yards

 

Josh Allen averaged 5 YPA on his third down throws. "Horrible number". But those throws led to first downs 67% of the time (no team cracked the 50%-for-the-season mark last year).

 

So yeah, I'd take those horrible numbers all day 🤣

 

 

[whatdrought]

11 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

Illustration:

 

Allen was 7-9 on third down throws. Of those seven completions, six were for a first down (the seventh got the Bills into a 4th and 1, which they converted).

 

Average yards to go on those 7 completed attempts: 5 yards

Average completion yardage on those seven attempts: 6.5 yards

 

Josh Allen averaged 5 YPA on his third down throws. "Horrible number". But those throws led to first downs 67% of the time (no team cracked the 50%-for-the-season mark last year).

 

So yeah, I'd take those horrible numbers all day 🤣

 

 

 

Great example. Stats outside of context are typically worthless.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Ecmic82 said:

Illustration:

 

Allen was 7-9 on third down throws. Of those seven completions, six were for a first down (the seventh got the Bills into a 4th and 1, which they converted).

 

Average yards to go on those 7 completed attempts: 5 yards

Average completion yardage on those seven attempts: 6.5 yards

 

Josh Allen averaged 5 YPA on his third down throws. "Horrible number". But those throws led to first downs 67% of the time (no team cracked the 50%-for-the-season mark last year).

 

So yeah, I'd take those horrible numbers all day 🤣

 

 

 

...and I believe he rushed for 5 1st downs too.  He looked good and I hope he is being dogged about his 2 drops.  He has to clean that up.

He needs to make that mental note when he decides to run the 1st thing he does is consciously secure the ball.

I have faith he can do that going forward.  He cleaned up the cray INTs in the beginning of last season now he has to learn this.

[Coach Tuesday]

I think his point about YPA was simply that against better teams, Allen is going to need to maintain his accuracy % while increasing his YPA.  He's right.

[Mat68]

37 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don’t like his YPA argument at all. In a vacuum that stat can be indicative, but in the context of a game wherein Allen took everything the defense gave him and more, it makes less sense. 

Its pretty stupid.  Greg Williams has his safties deeper than any D in the NFL.

[Lurker]

IDK about analyses like these. 

 

The Bills threw a ton of screens, which impacted Josh's yards per attemp stat line.   That was game plan dependent, as Daboll wanted to counteract Greggo's blitzing.   And who cares about what Walsh wanted in San Fran.   If he was the coach in windy Buffalo, he may have wanted a completely different type of QB.     smh... 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Lurker

[Augie]

42 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I don’t like his YPA argument at all. In a vacuum that stat can be indicative, but in the context of a game wherein Allen took everything the defense gave him and more, it makes less sense. 

 

In fact, I found some of his check downs to be extremely encouraging.  A sign of progress and growth.

[Mark Vader]

33 minutes ago, todd said:

We all knew Allen was a project when he was drafted, and the Bills didn’t want him to play his first year. Peterman was slated to be the starter, and played well enoug for the bills to trade AJ McCarronnnn to Oakland. Huge mistake. Peterman was awful. Huge miscalculation by the Bills and Allen was starter before he was ready. 
 

His arrow is pointing up, though. He was really raw coming out of college, and still has some rawness he needs to work out. Arrow pointing up.

Would you say that he has progressed from "raw" to "rare"?

[jletha]

15 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think his point about YPA was simply that against better teams, Allen is going to need to maintain his accuracy % while increasing his YPA.  He's right.

1 deep ball a game does *wonders* for YPA...

[Scott7975]

47 minutes ago, Yav said:

I don't get the complaint of 6.78 YPA. Brady would dump the ball off fast and the WR would break tackles or there would be a pick and they won with that formula and it was never a complaint for NE.

Mahomes YPA was 6.6.  So was Tom Brady.