Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: Play action really works when you have an adequate run game and yes the Jets tried to shut down our run game but we are going to have to run much better in the future to sell the play action. No that has been shown in an in depth study to be wrong. It's just a common misperception people have. There was NO correlation between running the ball well and play action working. It worked just as well even when the running game sucked.
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, matter2003 said: No that has been shown in an in depth study to be wrong. It's just a common misperception people have. There was NO correlation between running the ball well and play action working. It worked just as well even when the running game sucked. link dont talk to me about a study without proof of it.. cause i highly dissagree.
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: link? cause i highly dissagree You can disagree all you want. You are wrong. They analyzed 7 years worth of data. To summarize there is NO correlation overall OR in an individual game. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing Edited September 15, 2020 by matter2003
RoyBatty is alive Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, matter2003 said: No that has been shown in an in depth study to be wrong. It's just a common misperception people have. There was NO correlation between running the ball well and play action working. It worked just as well even when the running game sucked. I already read your comment from Football Outsiders, would love to read their data set. If that was true every team would be play action all the time, it isn't as if teams dont use analytics. It is like fans that say all we have to do is run, run run and we win 97% of the time when we run for over 180 yards. The purpose of the play action is to sell the run, you wont get defenders to go for your run play fake if you cant run.
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: I already read your comment from Football Outsiders, would love to read their data set. If that was true every team would be play action all the time, it isn't as if teams dont use analytics. It is like fans that say all we have to do is run, run run and we win 97% of the time when we run for over 180 yards. The purpose of the play action is to sell the run, you wont get defenders to go for your run play fake if you cant run. correct
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: I already read your comment from Football Outsiders, would love to read their data set. If that was true every team would be play action all the time, it isn't as if teams dont use analytics. It is like fans that say all we have to do is run, run run and we win 97% of the time when we run for over 180 yards. The purpose of the play action is to sell the run, you wont get defenders to go for your run play fake if you cant run. The link to the study is in the post above this one I am replying to. The data set was all plays from 2011-2017, a full 7 years worth of data. Again, logically that may make sense but just because something may make logical sense that doesn't mean the data supports that point of view. Edited September 15, 2020 by matter2003 1
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, matter2003 said: You can disagree all you want. You are wrong. They analyzed 7 years worth of data. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing none of this as to do with how well you can sell the run if your team cant run well. none of this talks about how well a line can hold for play action passing.. twice last game it was mentioned all this play action is not giving the qb the split seconds he needs to read the field. analytics are only good if it tells the whole story and even in final comments left questions 1
RoyBatty is alive Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, matter2003 said: The study is in the post above this one I am replying to. The data set was all plays from 2011-2017, a full 7 years worth of data. Which team was so play action heavy in that era. was it the Pats? Did they have off the bell curve positive results, yes. Take them and re-run the data.
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: none of this as to do with how well you can sell the run if your team cant run well. none of this talks about how well a line can hold for play action passing.. twice last game it was mentioned all this play action is not giving the qb the split seconds he needs to read the field. analytics are only good if it tells the whole story and even in final comments left questions That would then support the point further that running the ball well doesn't matter, not disprove it if you are saying that it gives the QB extra time to read the field. And do you understand what you are reading? The study was done to see the difference between play action success rates on teams that ran the ball well and teams that didn't and there was no statistically significant difference. Edited September 15, 2020 by matter2003
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 1 minute ago, matter2003 said: The study is in the post above this one I am replying to. The data set was all plays from 2011-2017, a full 7 years worth of data. that data is averaged between all the teams.. not how well one specific team will do. there are teams that are horrible and teams that are amzing. and none of that data talks about how well you cal sell the play action other then how well the plays/stats end up afterwards
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said: none of this as to do with how well you can sell the run if your team cant run well. none of this talks about how well a line can hold for play action passing.. twice last game it was mentioned all this play action is not giving the qb the split seconds he needs to read the field. analytics are only good if it tells the whole story and even in final comments left questions You hanging on to this notion that running the ball is required to succeed in play action is the equivalent to the people saying Coronavirus isn't real at this point. For people who are determined to believe their truth no amount of evidence would ever be enough to change their mind. Edited September 15, 2020 by matter2003 1
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, matter2003 said: You hanging on to this notion that running the ball is required to succeed in play action is the equivalent to the people saying Coronavirus isn't real at this point. For people who are determined to believe their truth no amount of evidence would ever be enough to change their mind. did those analytics tell you witch teams did bad with play action and why? we here to talk football and not be a smart buthead comment and bring up covid19 the second you start insulting people is the second you fail im done with this topic and wont reply to insults Edited September 15, 2020 by PrimeTime101 1
LeGOATski Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 It takes some big faith to not honor any team's run game in the NFL. This isn't college. Pretty much any NFL team can run on you if you let them. The Bills have the dual threat of good RBs and a big mobile QB, so the play action will be a good weapon this year regardless of how the run game is actually performing.
PrimeTime101 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: It takes some big faith to not honor any team's run game in the NFL. This isn't college. Pretty much any NFL team can run on you if you let them. The Bills have the dual threat of good RBs and a big mobile QB, so the play action will be a good weapon this year regardless of how the run game is actually performing. now thats an argument i can buy into. ty
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) Here is another study done which explains more and further breaks things down---the situational THREAT of a run is much more important than a team's actual ability to run well in determining success: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/play-action-passing-and-game-conditions The main points: First, play-action passes are most effective when there's the greatest situational threat of a run. Examples include play-action being more effective from under center than shotgun, being more effective on early downs, and being more effective for teams with a lead. Second, coaches appear to believe that rushing more often helps set up play-action: teams that run more often use play-action more often. Third, despite the above, there is no relationship between how often a given team has actually run -- whether over the course of a season or recently in a game -- and the effectiveness of their play-action attack. In other words, the threat of rushing is sufficient to set up play-action; teams don't actually need to run first before taking advantage of it. Fourth, as discussed above, play-action does not become less effective as the game goes on or as play-action is used more times in a game. Fifth, play-action primarily works by increasing the frequency and success of passes thrown to the intermediate part of the field, with depths of target between 10 and 20 yards downfield. This is because linebackers are sucked towards the line of scrimmage, opening up space behind them. This effect lasts throughout the game. And another study that shows the same things again: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing Edited September 15, 2020 by matter2003
thebandit27 Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 The data are clear: PA works even if you don’t run well. Not really up for debate. There is a small correlation between run quantity and PA success, but run success and PA success does not draw a correlation.
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: The data are clear: PA works even if you don’t run well. Not really up for debate. There is a small correlation between run quantity and PA success, but run success and PA success does not draw a correlation. Correct, the situational THREAT of a run also correlates to play action being more successful...as in 2nd and 2 or 3 yards for a first down
Royale with Cheese Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said: Witch is going to be a problem if our run game doesnt dramatically improve. if you cant sell it they wont buy it According to Football Outsiders, playaction works without a strong rushing game too. This isn't the first time I heard it but this is the first link I found on it. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
Big Turk Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, Royale with Cheese said: According to Football Outsiders, playaction works without a strong rushing game too. This isn't the first time I heard it but this is the first link I found on it. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing Correct...I posted a link to the original study and then a further one from last year as well as this one as well in posts above...
Royale with Cheese Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Correct...I posted a link to the original study and then a further one from last year as well as this one as well in posts above... I just saw it after I posted it. I've read it or heard it somewhere else before as well. You just need a QB who can sell it well. Edited September 15, 2020 by Royale with Cheese
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