Erie County Dept. of Health Warning Fans Who Plan on Attending the Miami Game

[Lagoon Blues]

7 minutes ago, arcane said:

Man, I'm glad you dont have legislative influence. 

 

Any explanation for why America's ILI curve this season was identical to past years despite being a less communicable illness than covid, and unprecedented PPE use and lockdowns during the height of Hope-Simpson flu seasonality for each climate region in the country? Hint - epidemiologists using garbage-in garbsge-out assumptive computer modeling that is often off by an order of magnitude or more, who are fixated on non-immunoligical legislation, are not the place to go to find a genuine science-based explanation for this 

Been practicing up on your CTRL C and CTRL V I see...

[dwight in philly]

What if you wear a mask if you go? and sit 6 feet apart? 

[Franco_92]

Just now, Lagoon Blues said:

Been practicing up on your CTRL C and CTRL V I see...

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

[Lagoon Blues]

2 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

The lack of intellectual prowess is staggering.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, arcane said:

Could be a good time to remind our local legislators that the pandemic planning literature from the WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals. They made this determination from comprehensive review of all literature and study ever done on the topic. The experts are still insisting that we should have followed these protocols, if you're listening to the right ones. 

 

And using egregiously amplified PCR testing rates while regularly testing previously unsampled young, healthy populace, to write legislation, is abhorrently unscientific and asinine. 

 

CDC:

 

CDC uses Travel Health Notices (THNs) to tell travelers and other audiences about health threats around the world. On March 27, 2020, CDC posted a Level 3 Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice. That notice advised travelers from the United States to avoid all nonessential travel to foreign countries and US Territories around the world. On August 6, 2020, CDC replaced the global travel notice with destination-specific COVID-19 THNs.

 

 

Quarantine is used to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. Quarantine helps prevent spread of disease that can occur before a person knows they are sick or if they are infected with the virus without feeling symptoms. People in quarantine should stay home, separate themselves from others, monitor their health, and follow directions from their state or local health department.

 

 

Some types of travel and activities can put you at higher risk for exposure to COVID-19 (see list below).  If you participated in higher risk activities or think that you may have been exposed before or during your trip, take extra precautions (in addition the ones listed above) to protect others for 14 days after you arrive:

• Stay home as much as possible.
• Avoid being around people at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
• Consider getting tested for COVID-19.

What activities are considered higher risk?

Here are examples of activities and situations that can increase your risk of exposure to COVID-19:

• Being in an area that is experiencing high levels of COVID-19, including destinations with a Level 3 Travel Health Notice. You can check the Travel Health Notices for recommendations for places you have traveled, including foreign countries and U.S. territories.  You can also check states, counties, and cities to determine if these areas are experiencing high levels of COVID-19.
• Going to a large social gathering like a wedding, funeral, or party.
• Attending a mass gathering like a sporting event, concert, or parade.
• Being in crowds — for example, in restaurants, bars, airports, bus and train stations, or movie theaters.
• Traveling on a cruise ship or river boat.

11 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

 

Now even YOU are plotting against you?

 

Trust no one!!!

[Beast]

2 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

Will you be joining 12000 people in a stadium for your work trip?

 

Who's to say what I will be doing. There will be football games I can attend while I am down there.

[LabattBlue]

I have a family member who upon arriving back in Buffalo recently from a restricted state, scribbled illegibly all the info required, threw it at the person and kept walking.  So proud to call them family. 
 

👎

[Franco_92]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

CDC:

 

CDC uses Travel Health Notices (THNs) to tell travelers and other audiences about health threats around the world. On March 27, 2020, CDC posted a Level 3 Global COVID-19 Pandemic Notice. That notice advised travelers from the United States to avoid all nonessential travel to foreign countries and US Territories around the world. On August 6, 2020, CDC replaced the global travel notice with destination-specific COVID-19 THNs.

 

 

Quarantine is used to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. Quarantine helps prevent spread of disease that can occur before a person knows they are sick or if they are infected with the virus without feeling symptoms. People in quarantine should stay home, separate themselves from others, monitor their health, and follow directions from their state or local health department.

 

 

Some types of travel and activities can put you at higher risk for exposure to COVID-19 (see list below).  If you participated in higher risk activities or think that you may have been exposed before or during your trip, take extra precautions (in addition the ones listed above) to protect others for 14 days after you arrive:

• Stay home as much as possible.
• Avoid being around people at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19.
• Consider getting tested for COVID-19.

What activities are considered higher risk?

Here are examples of activities and situations that can increase your risk of exposure to COVID-19:

• Being in an area that is experiencing high levels of COVID-19, including destinations with a Level 3 Travel Health Notice. You can check the Travel Health Notices for recommendations for places you have traveled, including foreign countries and U.S. territories.  You can also check states, counties, and cities to determine if these areas are experiencing high levels of COVID-19.
• Going to a large social gathering like a wedding, funeral, or party.
• Attending a mass gathering like a sporting event, concert, or parade.
• Being in crowds — for example, in restaurants, bars, airports, bus and train stations, or movie theaters.
• Traveling on a cruise ship or river boat.

 

Now even YOU are plotting against you?

 

Trust no one!!!

I'm talking about pandemic planning literature that was complied over decades and established before covid-19 existed. 

 

While you're at it, please post Miami hospital data, preferably rolling averages compared to this time period historically, and show me the excess death and bed numbers. I'll wait, and then cry at the doom and gloom currently ravaging the hospitals, er, I mean 45 Ct labs

26 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

The lack of intellectual prowess is staggering.

Because your two posts have taught me so much about covid.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, arcane said:

Ooh, I appear to have struck a little nerve.i appreciate your good-faith compliment r.e. my vocabulary. 

 

The literature categorically recommends against the quarantine of healthy individuals even in the height of the disease curves which passed in NY months ago. The literature is clear, their justification complete with examples. They sum up their positions in simple and complete tables, and their conclusions are what I stated. I will not be searching the pdfs at work while on mobile, but if I have time tonight I might be able to get to it for you. I know, it stings when real science cuts through the view you have spent months cultivating. We have legislated like headless chickens and it will be looked back on as such. 

 

PCR amplification above 35 cycles (2**n increase in DNA magnification for n increase in cycles) indicating a positive result is often indicative of a nonviable virus load that does not induce symptoms or viral transfer in the real world. In a human body with a typical immune system, that number is closer to thirty. Most labs I've seen are operating between 35 and 45 cycle threshold, which is inducing a huge number of positive cases that should not by any definition be considered positive. This distinction is why countries like Uruguay seem to be "performing well" compared to neighbors- they just have more pragmatic/consistent lab procedures. But here, in america and the west, we decide to institute weekly testing of a previously unsampled population whether they display symptoms or not, at these insane amplification rates, and are wringing our hands at the results, and letting them dictate the test-rate laws we've already written. This doesnt even consider that at this amplification we can detect dead (the test makes no distinction) fragments from as long as 12 weeks prior. There is no honest lens through which you can look and give serious, genuine justification to this practice, and it will be an embarrassment to look back on down the line. This type of testing is not and was never designed to be used as a case metric the way we are using it. This is the asinine testing I was referring to. PCR tests at an appropriate threshold for those experiencing symptoms are incredible tools. This is their domain. 

 

Ah-Ha!  I'm starting to get the picture here.

Would you, by any chance, be one of those asymptomatic people in America being subjected to weekly testing and having your movement restricted on the basis of a positive test?

 

Since we aren't, in fact, instituting weekly testing in America or the West except at a few colleges and universities (and in a few places, HCW at congregate living facilities), the bolded statement and indignation about "cycle threshold" indicates you may be a member of a group of healthy dudes being subjected to such testing.

 

People who develop RT-PCR testing and visit enough diagnostic laboratories to justify phrases like 'most labs' likely use different terminology than "amplification rate", especially applied to RT-PCR vs Q-PCR.  Just sayin'.  BTW, what was the cycle number specified in the original WHO and CDC covid-19 diagnostic tests?

 

Virologists understand that a single test can't tell you which side of the titer/days since exposure curve the patient is on (increasing or decreasing titer), that the question of sample storage time is a confounding factor, and that we really have very little firm data

 

But by all means, search for those .pdfs recommending against quarantine of exposed healthy individuals for containment of a disease with extensive spread by asymptomatic and presymptomatic people and provide them - over in the Off the Wall covid threads.   The sources you have definitively correlating PCR cycle threshholds with covid-19 infectivity would also of great interest and I'll await them easily.

 

Meanwhile, my tolerance for non-football-related generalized covid-19 ranting in the football board is at a low ebb - See you over on the Off the Wall Covid threads with your sources.  CAN'T WAIT!

 

 

 

 

[Franco_92]

I was a little sloppy in the umbrella of categorical recommendation - that is true for the quarantine of healthy individuals, but they do *advise that countries* recommend their individuals *voluntarily refrain from travel to hot spots. Of course, southern US Hope-Simpson seasonality matches the relevant numbers which suggest that Miami is past its hot spot. 

 

But the realities of climate-dependent illness (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316) coupled with the physical/biological mechanisms for this behavior (via aerosol half-life and gravitational loss) render any non-immunological legislation to being the useless clusterf* that it has been, as evidenced by zero correlation between any of these measures and covid impacts analyzed at the county level, aggregated to the national level. This is true of masks (check "all states" here: https://rationalground.com/interactive-tool-masks-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3c1cX-pJ6bUO-H9wQM2dyqKwJbXUOc2Jfjl3-hjllpRjIv1PHhuzX3MPQ), lockdowns (use google mobility data (i'd stick with retail & recreation as the best proxy for lockdown legislation) and plot rolling average of hospitalizations against this data, and adjust for a 1-2 week lag, and you'll find that seasonality is the only thing driving spikes, and that no abrupt change in covid impacts on hospitals is ever preceded by meaningful change in mobility, in the half of the states that got hit in their predicted Hope-Simpson season, you can associate lockdowns with more cases, while you can do the opposite for the states hit later, which renders the lockdowns useless as a driving variable), anything else we've tried. But we must continue to do things so we can feel like we are stopping things! 

 

[Mod Edit.  Dude: glad to see you're providing a few references and acknowledge being a "little sloppy in the umbrella of categorical recommendation". 😇 Further discussion of the general covid-19 thing in the OTW covid-19 threads, Please.  And be sure to bring your references about the correlation between cycle threshold and demonstrated covid-19 infectivity, K?  CAN'T WAIT!  

 

In case this hint wasn't clear enough let me translate: further general covid posts  in this thread will disappear.]

[prissythecat]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

 

The exemption for essential workers has some terms and conditions.  You don't have carte blanche to do whatever you want...

 

NY State Quarantine Guidelines

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, billspro said:

This is true. It’s statistically insignificant. 

 

Actually, it's felt that the "false negative" rate for people who actually have or develop symptoms relevant to covid-19 by naso-pharangeal sampling and are positive on repeat testing may be as high as 29%.  One review study on the preprint server medrxiv suggests 54% (keep in mind that server means it's not peer reviewed yet)

Factors relating to this include:

1) where the virus is located when the test is conducted - if it's moved on from the upper respiratory tract into the lungs or internalized, it may not be detected.  Some countries do lavage, blood, and stool sampling on symptomatic patients for this reason.

2) how well the sample was taken or other sampling interference - if a nasopharangeal sample isn't deep enough, for example

3) duration of sample storage time and sample storage conditions between collection and test - this is a real question in states where tests can take 10-14 days to be run

4) days since exposure - there's a good Annals of Internal Medicine paper out of JHU on this point.  Popular article about it.  Basically, if you may be infected and are tested prior to day 4 since exposure, very good chance of a false negative test.

[Mr. WEO]

14 minutes ago, arcane said:

I'm talking about pandemic planning literature that was complied over decades and established before covid-19 existed. 

 

While you're at it, please post Miami hospital data, preferably rolling averages compared to this time period historically, and show me the excess death and bed numbers. I'll wait, and then cry at the doom and gloom currently ravaging the hospitals, er, I mean 45 Ct labs

Because your two posts have taught me so much about covid.

 

 

 

 

.....then COVID-19 existed and those were the CDC's recommendations ( to refresh your memory, you posted this: "WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals."  ).  Sure looks like the CDC is recommending quarantine after high risk exposure behavior AND restricted travel (they clearly are).  

 

I'm not sure what Miami hospital data you are requesting....rolling averages of death from any cause?  Why would that help you?  Do you mean summer-time deaths from other viruses?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See, this is where I start to lose patience.  "Everybody's an Infectious Disease Expert" who can proclaim what "common sense" is with regard to infectious disease.  NOT.

 

A negative Covid test is a snapshot in time.   The median time from exposure to an infectious titer is 4-5 days, but the range is 2-12 days - meaning someone can be infected with covid-19 and not develop a titer that would show up on a covid-19 test for 12 days. 

The 14 day quarantine period is the result of data that only 101 out of 10,000 people would still develop covid-19 symptoms (and test positive) after 14 days pass.

 

So it's COMMON SENSE that you quarantine for 14 days even if you have a negative test 4-5 days after exposure, because you may still be infected.

 

although many health departments do not require a quarantine if you have a negative test. 

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Common sense??  So are you proposing people who go to Miami come back and get tested and if it's negative they are fine, no worries? It takes up to 14 days after exposure before you could test positive and in turn pass on to others.  You could return get tested every day for the first seven days and be negative, then stop being tested, then on day 11 you have the virus in you and are capable of passing it to others, and BTW could still test negative.  Now you exposed the virus to others, finally on day 12 you develop symptoms yourself, get tested again and it comes back positive.

 

No idea what your logic is that a negative test would mean you don't need to quarantine??

 

Having heard to from a couple of people who actually were sick with Covid, health officials were only concerned with the people they interacted with in the 48 hours prior to them developing symptoms.  So apparently 5 days or so prior to a person having symptoms, they aren't able to be spreaders.  Also sounds like most people develop symptoms within a week of exposure, but in some cases can be up to 14 days so to be cautious require a 14 day period.

Wrong... man people have a lot of incorrect info.  It can take up to 14 days for exposure to manifest itself.  Up to, it can happen before.  Asymptomatic people can spread disease... In addition its all about viral load and proximity to an infected person as to whether or not you catch it.  Jeez there is a lot of misunderstanding out there about the disease.  The 14 day quarantine from potential exposure is generally the most it takes for you to have the disease symptomatic or asymptomatic and spread it to others.  

54 minutes ago, dwight in philly said:

What if you wear a mask if you go? and sit 6 feet apart? 

Generally means you are safe... and wash your hands regularly while there and dont touch anything and then yourself ...  

54 minutes ago, dwight in philly said:

Edited September 14, 2020 by North Buffalo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

.....then COVID-19 existed and those were the CDC's recommendations ( to refresh your memory, you posted this: "WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals."  ).  Sure looks like the CDC is recommending quarantine after high risk exposure behavior AND restricted travel (they clearly are).  

 

I'm not sure what Miami hospital data you are requesting....rolling averages of death from any cause?  Why would that help you?  Do you mean summer-time deaths from other viruses?

 

Let's move this to the covid-19 thread please.  Thanks.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

To put this into prespective, I have to travel to Florida in October concerning work. However,  since I am an "essential" employee, I do not have to quarantine when I return to New York.

 

Makes sense, huh?

 

Maybe they assume as an essential worker you won't go unmasked to a pool party with a thousand people?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

54 minutes ago, arcane said:

Uh, okay? Google search my post and show me what I copied from? I'm typing on mobile while working bich itd be harder to use the internet than to summarize what I've already spent months learning and reading about and generating plots and regressions on myself 

 

May I gently recommend you refrain from posting until you are in an environment that allows you to share your months of learning in a more coherent fashion?

[ziltoid]

This discussion ended as expected.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, RiotAct said:

then why don’t they just state that???

 

That's a really good question.  I got that from seeing it in print, now I need to dig it up.

 

So the NYS Phase 4 Reopening guidelines are no spectators, no tailgating:

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2020/07/no-fans-will-be-allowed-to-attend-buffalo-bills-games-during-covid.html

"One of the mandatory conditions in the physical distancing section reads: “Ensure that no live audience, fans, or spectators are allowed to attend or permitted to enter any professional sports venue, even if an outdoor venue. Prohibit fans from congregating outside the venue and implement a security plan to safely disperse any individuals that gather outside of the venue.” "

 

So then there's this Bills statement that these guidelines will remain unchanged for "at least the first two games".  The implication is something could change it - what?

 

Then there's this statement from Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz:

https://www.wivb.com/news/local-news/erie-county/erie-county-executive-says-if-people-dont-take-precautions-ban-on-bills-game-may-extend-into-october/

 

"Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz says our infection rate in Western New York could lead to the state announcing no fans will be allowed inside football stadiums indefinitely, especially as the region’s rates are higher than the rest of the state. 

While the Bills announced yesterday no fans will be there for the two home games next month – the County Executive says we still have a shot to attend the home games in October, but it will only be if we get our positive cases down."

 

 

I guess it's my inference that if WNY gets positive cases down more towards some of the lower infection rate regions, fans at football games will be back on the table (according to discussions with the state that Poloncarz may be, to use the immortal words of Whaley, "privy to"

 

Reasonable inference/not reasonable?

 

You be the judge.