Erie County Dept. of Health Warning Fans Who Plan on Attending the Miami Game

[teef]

18 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

This has good intentions but is not being enforced. This is all based on self-compliance.

 

i just flew in & out of BUF this past weekend because I go every month to visit my parents. My state is not FL but is on the restricted list. I filled out the on-line form and had an ecopy ready to show. When entering the on-line form I indicated I was from an area which did not have C19 restrictions. This is true as my area of VA does not have a high infection rate. By stating this, the e-form returned “...not subject to quarantine..”.

 

When I flew to BUF in Aug,, 2 people met the plane to collect the paper forms from people. Now there is a table outside the passenger exit/TSA entry near the elevator & escalator/stairs to collect forms or view e-forms. Honestly, I just walked past it because I was in a hurry to pick up a rental car. Nobody stopped me asking for my form.

I bet NYS will not be checking airplane passenger manifests to see who submitted forms. Now it doesn’t matter as I have completed my trip.

 

i was wondering about this.  i heard a story recently from a friend of mine who has a father in law that lives out of the area.  when he came back to ny, the state he came from was on the restricted list, and he filled out the paperwork.  i was told that within a day or two, he was out and about, doing his thing.  apparently they contacted him, telling him to go back into quarantine, which makes me think they were monitoring the phone?  i haven't heard another story like this, and the person who told me has no reason to make it up, so i was wondering if anyone else had heard anything similar.

Edited September 14, 2020 by teef

[BullBuchanan]

55 minutes ago, billspro said:

Why would you still have to quarantine with a negative COVID test? Common sense gets lost easily these days. 

Testing has false negatives. Science doesn't care about common sense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, billspro said:

Why would you still have to quarantine with a negative COVID test? Common sense gets lost easily these days. There are lots of BillsMafia that live in Florida. I think there will definitely be some Bills fans at the game.

 

See, this is where I start to lose patience.  "Everybody's an Infectious Disease Expert" who can proclaim what "common sense" is with regard to infectious disease.  NOT.

 

A negative Covid test is a snapshot in time.   The median time from exposure to an infectious titer is 4-5 days, but the range is 2-12 days - meaning someone can be infected with covid-19 and not develop a titer that would show up on a covid-19 test for 12 days. 

The 14 day quarantine period is the result of data that only 101 out of 10,000 people would still develop covid-19 symptoms (and test positive) after 14 days pass.

 

So it's COMMON SENSE that you quarantine for 14 days even if you have a negative test 4-5 days after exposure, because you may still be infected.

[Marv's Neighbor]

If this message is meant for adults, who are free to make up their own minds, then it's a waste of time!

 

Erie county should stick to "managing" Erie county, and not worry about what another municipality, with different circumstance  may be doing.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, arcane said:

Could be a good time to remind our local legislators that the pandemic planning literature from the WHO, CDC, ECDC (euro version) categorically recommend against the quarantine and restricted travel of healthy individuals. They made this determination from comprehensive review of all literature and study ever done on the topic. The experts are still insisting that we should have followed these protocols, if you're listening to the right ones. 

 

And using egregiously amplified PCR testing rates while regularly testing previously unsampled young, healthy populace, to write legislation, is abhorrently unscientific and asinine. 

 

I think you missed the part about potential disease exposures in that literature.  But if you care to link your source I can double-check for you.

 

Kudos for using the word "egregious" but I'm not quite sure what the phrase "egregiously amplified PCR testing rates" (or the entire sentence) actually means.  I believe that sentence probably rang proudly in your mind as you wrote it.  The scientific basis of PCR amplification is well established, including for testing.  There's nothing unscientific about testing "previously unsampled" people.  The scientific basis of asymptomatic transmission is also well-established in diseases such as polio, which means that to contain a disease, you must identify and isolate the asymptomatic carriers

 

I'm sorry you feel this is asinine, but there's probably nothing to be done about that; experience suggests that people who express themselves as you do are usually quite resistant to the interjection of corrections to misinformation, facts from sources beyond those they limit themselves to, or different opinions in general.

[Mr Info]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

i was wondering about this.  i heard a story recent about just this.  it was a friend of mine who has a father in law that lives out of the area.  when he came back to ny,  his state he came from was on the restricted list, and he filled out the paperwork.  i was told that within a day or two, he was out and about, doing his thing.  apparently they contacted him, telling him to go back into quarantine, which makes me think they were monitoring the phone?  i haven't heard another story like this, and the person who told me has no reason to make it up, so i was wondering if anyone else had heard anything like this.

My parents, who live in NY recently returned from a trip to MN. However, they connected from MSP to BUF through the Detroit airport. MN was on NYS restricted list but MI was not. When my parents filled out the NYS paper form (they are not esavvy) they indicated MI as their point of entry. This was true and they were not trying to be sneaky. That resulted in no quarantine on their re-entry to NY. 

[Franco_92]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you missed the part about potential disease exposures in that literature.  But if you care to link your source I can double-check for you.

 

Kudos for using the word "egregious" but I'm not quite sure what the phrase "egregiously amplified PCR testing rates" (or the entire sentence) actually means.  I believe that sentence probably rang proudly in your mind as you wrote it.  The scientific basis of PCR amplification is well established, including for testing.  There's nothing unscientific about testing "previously unsampled" people.  The scientific basis of asymptomatic transmission is also well-established in diseases such as polio, which means that to contain a disease, you must identify and isolate the asymptomatic carriers

 

I'm sorry you feel this is asinine, but there's probably nothing to be done about that; experience suggests that people who express themselves as you do are usually quite resistant to the interjection of corrections to misinformation, facts from sources beyond those they limit themselves to, or different opinions in general.

Ooh, I appear to have struck a little nerve.i appreciate your good-faith compliment r.e. my vocabulary. 

 

The literature categorically recommends against the quarantine of healthy individuals even in the height of the disease curves which passed in NY months ago. The literature is clear, their justification complete with examples. They sum up their positions in simple and complete tables, and their conclusions are what I stated. I will not be searching the pdfs at work while on mobile, but if I have time tonight I might be able to get to it for you. I know, it stings when real science cuts through the view you have spent months cultivating. We have legislated like headless chickens and it will be looked back on as such. 

 

PCR amplification above 35 cycles (2**n increase in DNA magnification for n increase in cycles) indicating a positive result is often indicative of a nonviable virus load that does not induce symptoms or viral transfer in the real world. In a human body with a typical immune system, that number is closer to thirty. Most labs I've seen are operating between 35 and 45 cycle threshold, which is inducing a huge number of positive cases that should not by any definition be considered positive. This distinction is why countries like Uruguay seem to be "performing well" compared to neighbors- they just have more pragmatic/consistent lab procedures. But here, in america and the west, we decide to institute weekly testing of a previously unsampled population whether they display symptoms or not, at these insane amplification rates, and are wringing our hands at the results, and letting them dictate the test-rate laws we've already written. This doesnt even consider that at this amplification we can detect dead (the test makes no distinction) fragments from as long as 12 weeks prior. There is no honest lens through which you can look and give serious, genuine justification to this practice, and it will be an embarrassment to look back on down the line. This type of testing is not and was never designed to be used as a case metric the way we are using it. This is the asinine testing I was referring to. PCR tests at an appropriate threshold for those experiencing symptoms are incredible tools. This is their domain. 

Edited September 14, 2020 by arcane

[Captain Caveman]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

Why would you still have to quarantine with a negative COVID test? Common sense gets lost easily these days. There are lots of BillsMafia that live in Florida. I think there will definitely be some Bills fans at the game.

 

Because it can take 2 weeks for the disease to show up in a test after exposure.

 

1 hour ago, billspro said:

Common sense gets lost easily these days. 

 

It sure does.

[Cinga]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Like it or not, the 14 day quarantine is NYS law, so, Fair.

 

Unstated but a point is that pretty sure NY would like to see Erie and adjacent counties where most of the fans are from, drop to a positivity rate of 0.5% with no active cluster outbreaks to have fans at the game (this is a guess based on messing with the Georgia Tech Covid Probability tool). 

 

Go to Miami, party up, come home with the Covid-19 and share, won’t help that goal.

 

Bull..... Remember when the lockdown was for two weeks, just to flatten the curve?

[JMF2006]

So the Miami Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays can fly in to play the Buffalo Blue Jays and not have to quarantine and vice versa?

 

What we have here is a double standard. 

When governments stop international flights(who are the ones actually carrying and spreading covid) then I  will billieve what they are telling us.

 

But don't count on it.

Edited September 14, 2020 by JMF2006

[fansince88]

If they let me in the stadium with 80k yesterday I would have gone. Am I a moron? Possibly. Am I over this? Yes.  All I need is contact with one thst had it and I am in contact with people every day.

Edited September 14, 2020 by fansince88

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, fansince88 said:

If they let me in the stadium with 80k yesterday I would have gone. Am I a moron? Possibly. Am I over this? Yes. 

 

I agree its gone into over reach mode.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

Bull..... Remember when the lockdown was for two weeks, just to flatten the curve?

 

No, actually, I don't remember that, given that most epidemiologists feel a lockdown needs to last at least two transmission cycles to be effective at slowing things down.

 

But whether or not you like it or agree with it, the point is that it's NYS law to quarantine for 14 days after spending >24 hrs in designated states, so it's fair for ECDOH to remind folks of it.

[Franco_92]

2 minutes ago, fansince88 said:

If they let me in the stadium with 80k yesterday I would have gone. Am I a moron? Possibly. Am I over this? Yes.  All I need is contact with one thst had it and I am in contact with people every day.

You're not a moron. History will not be kind to anyone who thinks you are.

[RiotAct]

7 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

Bull..... Remember when the lockdown was for two weeks, just to flatten the curve?

but you can still go grocery shopping, work, and drive places!!!!!!!

[fansince88]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, actually, I don't remember that, given that most epidemiologists feel a lockdown needs to last at least two transmission cycles to be effective at slowing things down.

 

But whether or not you like it or agree with it, the point is that it's NYS law to quarantine for 14 days after spending >24 hrs in designated states, so it's fair for ECDOH to remind folks of it.

So, fly in, watch the game and fly home

[Cinga]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, actually, I don't remember that, given that most epidemiologists feel a lockdown needs to last at least two transmission cycles to be effective at slowing things down.

 

Do you mean Fauci who has been wrong every step of the way on this?

[Franco_92]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, actually, I don't remember that, given that most epidemiologists feel a lockdown needs to last at least two transmission cycles to be effective at slowing things down.

Man, I'm glad you dont have legislative influence. 

 

Any explanation for why America's ILI curve this season was identical to past years despite being a less communicable illness than covid, and unprecedented PPE use and lockdowns during the height of Hope-Simpson flu seasonality for each climate region in the country? Hint - epidemiologists using garbage-in garbsge-out assumptive computer modeling that is often off by an order of magnitude or more, who are fixated on non-immunoligical legislation, are not the place to go to find a genuine science-based explanation for this 

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

So the Miami Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays can fly in to play the Buffalo Blue Jays and not have to quarantine and vice versa?

 

What we have here is a double standard. 

When governments stop international flights(who are the ones actually carrying and spreading covid) then I billieve what they are telling us.

 

But don't count on it.

 

Like Canada?  No foreign nationals allowed in. 

 

Miami-Dade, in a state that doesn't have any quarantine policy, is now the county with the second highest number of Covid positives in the country. 

1 hour ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

I'm glad the unwashed masses are not allowed to think for themselves.  Go Erie County Department of Health, they are the real undefeated heroes!

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, billspro said:

Why would you still have to quarantine with a negative COVID test? Common sense gets lost easily these days. There are lots of BillsMafia that live in Florida. I think there will definitely be some Bills fans at the game.

 

Getting a negative doesn't mean 

1. you already had it and are no longer a spreader
2. you can still contract the Covid.

JMO