Covid 19 vaccine tracking (updated 9/9)

[shoshin]

At some point, there will be a few vaccines available, and there already are some treatments. Probably the best vaccine tracker is the one at StatNews, which also has a treatment tracker. I will try to keep this updated every couple weeks and I pulled this out of the monster thread since that's dedicated to numbers tracking at this point, and this thread can maybe discuss the vaccines themselves.

 

(There's another vaccine tracker at the NYTimes but it's not as user-friendly.)

 

Coronavirus Vaccines Tracker : Sheet1

	Company	Stage	Description	Notes & Updates	Related Coverage
	University of Oxford and AstraZeneca	Phase 3	University of Oxford researchers have developed a potential vaccine that uses a harmless virus engineered to contain the genetic sequence that encodes for a protein on the surface of the novel coronavirus. The researchers, from the University’s Jenner Institute and Oxford Vaccine Group, are working at uncommon speed, starting a placebo-controlled clinical trial while finalizing the manufacturing of their potential vaccine. British drug maker AstraZeneca has partnered on the project.	March 27: Oxford begins recruiting patients for a placebo-controlled trial that will enroll up to 510 healthy volunteers. The vaccine will not be ready for "some weeks," according to the university. April 30: AstraZeneca announces it will partner with Oxford to develop the vaccine. July 20: Oxford publishes Phase 1/2 data demonstrating an immune response with mild to moderate side effects. Aug. 31: AstraZeneca begins enrollment in a U.S. Phase 3 trial that will involved 30,000 volunteers. Sept. 8: AstraZeneca says a hold has been put on the trial following a suspected adverse reaction in a participant.	Read more
	Moderna Therapeutics	Phase 3	Moderna’s vaccine, mRNA-1273, is a synthetic messenger RNA that encodes for a protein found on the surface of the novel coronavirus. By compelling cells to produce that protein, the vaccine would spur an immune response, causing the body to generate antibodies that would protect against infection. The company set a drug industry record with mRNA-1273, identifying a vaccine candidate just 42 days after the novel coronavirus was sequenced.	March 16: First patient dosed in a Phase 1 trial April 16: Moderna plans to begin a Phase 2 study by July May 1: Moderna announces it will partner with Swiss firm Lonza on development May 7: FDA clears Moderna to start a 600-patient Phase 2 study, which will begin "shortly" May 18: Moderna discloses interim Phase 1 data, in which eight volunteers developed antibodies to the coronavirus May 29: Moderna doses the first volunteers in a Phase 2 study, planning to enroll about 600 people July 14: Moderna publishes Phase 1 data showing a consistent antibody response and mild to moderate side effects. July 27: Moderna begins enrollment in a 30,000-subject Phase 3 trial	Read More
	BioNTech and Pfizer	Phase 3	Germany’s BioNTech is working on a multitude of mRNA vaccines for the novel coronavirus, planning to develop them in parallel. Like its competitors, the company uses strands of mRNA to generate protective antibodies. Earlier this month, Shanghai’s Fosun Pharma signed a deal to market BioNTech’s vaccine in China if it’s eventually approved. Pfizer has agreed to co-develop the vaccine in the rest of the world.	April 9: BioNTech says it will begin its first human trials "as early as the end of April" April 29: BioNTech and Pfizer dose the first patients in a Phase 1 trial in Germany, planning to enroll about 200 patients May 5: BioNTech and Pfizer begin Phase 1 study in the U.S., recruiting up to 360 patients total May 12: BioNTech says it expects preliminary data in June or July July 1: In a Phase 1 trial, BioNTech's vaccine led to an increase coronavirus antibodies at three doses, according to a preprint paper July 27: Pfizer and BioNTech begin enrollment on a 30,000-volunteer study, expecting data as early as October	Read more
	Sinovac	Phase 2	Sinovac, headquartered in Beijing, is developing a vaccine using an inactivated version of the novel coronavirus. The company used the same technology to craft approved vaccines for hepatitis A and B; swine flu; avian flu; and the virus that causes hand, foot, and mouth disease.	April 17: Sinovac begins a placebo-controlled Phase 1/2 trial, planning to enroll 144 healthy volunteers in China May 6: Sinovac publishes results from a preclinical study in which its vaccine successfully protected monkeys from contracting the novel coronavirus. The company plans to start a second, larger human trial by mid-May June 14: Sinovac released preliminary results from its Phase 2 trial, saying its vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies in “above 90%” of participants	Read more
	CanSino Biologics	Phase 2	CanSino Biologics, headquartered in Tianjin, is developing a coronavirus vaccine using the technology that led to a China-approved Ebola virus vaccine. CanSino’s approach involves taking a snippet of coronavirus’ genetic code and entwining it with a harmless virus, thereby exposing healthy volunteers to the novel infection and spurring the production of antibodies.	March 17: CanSino begins Phase 1 trial in China April 10: Based on preliminary data, CanSino says it will move into Phase 2 "soon" May 22: CanSino published data from a 108-subject trial, in which its vaccine generated a immune response in volunteers June 29: Chinese regulators provisionally approved CanSino's vaccine for military use July 20: CanSino publishes interim Phase 2 data showing a consistent antibody response but one that seemed to wane in older subjects	Read more
	Inovio Pharmaceuticals	Phase 1	Inovio has spent the last four decades working to turn DNA into medicine, and the company believes its technology could quickly generate a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. Inovio has come up with a DNA vaccine it believes can generate protective antibodies and keep patients from infection. The company has partnered with a Chinese manufacturer, Beijing Advaccine Biotechnology, to produce the vaccine.	April 6: Inovio doses first patient in Phase 1 trial June 30: Inovio says its vaccine led to an immune response in 94% of patients but does not provide data	Read more
	Novavax	Phase 1	Novavax is at work on a coronavirus vaccine that begins in the ovaries of an insect. The company’s vaccine platform involves genetically engineering a harmless virus and exposing it to cells isolated from worms. Those cells then churn out the proteins needed to stimulate antibodies, and those proteins become vaccines. For Covid-19, Novavax has isolated the spike protein found on the surface of the novel coronavirus.	April 8: Novavax selects a vaccine candidate, planning to begin human trials in May with preliminary data in July May 26: Novavax begins Phase 1 trial, planning to enroll about 130 volunteers with data expected in July Aug. 4: Novavax presents detailed data from its Phase 1 trial, demonstrating an immune response with mostly mild side effects	Read more
	Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline	Phase 1	Sanofi is employing the same technology it employs for flu vaccines, which uses a genetically modified version of a virus to create proteins that train the immune system to react. The company is combining its approach with GlaxoSmithKline's proprietary adjuvant, an additive that makes vaccines more potent.	Feb. 18: Sanofi begins work on a coronavirus vaccine April 14: Sanofi partners with GlaxoSmithKline and plans to begin human trials in the second half of 2020 and generate pivotal data in 2021 Sept. 3. Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline begin a 400-volunteer, Phase 1/2 trial, expect data in December	Read More
	Johnson & Johnson	Preclinical	Johnson & Johnson, which has in the past responded to outbreaks of the Ebola and Zika viruses, is using the same technology to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. J&J’s vaccine is made by grafting the coronavirus genes that confer immunity onto a harmless virus, injecting it triggering an immune response without causing infection.	March 30: J&J expects to begin Phase 1 by September, with a vaccine available for emergency use as soon as early 2021
	Arcturus Therapeutics	Preclinical	Arcturus Therapeutics is pressing forward with a vaccine that relies on engineering RNA. The company plans to take an RNA virus that has been edited to encode for proteins that will protect against infection and load it into a liquid nanoparticle. The resulting vaccine, being developed in partnership with Duke University, promises a better immune response at a lower dose than competing mRNA approaches, according to the company.	April 9: Arcturus plans to begin a Phase 1 trial in Singapore over the summer
	Clover Biopharmaceuticals and GlaxoSmithKline	Preclinical	Clover Biopharmaceuticals, headquartered in Chengdu, is developing a vaccine that would inject patients with a protein found on the surface of the novel coronavirus. GlaxoSmithKline is providing its proprietary adjuvant, an additive that makes vaccines more potent.	Feb. 10: Clover identifies its vaccine candidate Feb. 24: GlaxoSmithKline provides its adjuvant
	CureVac	Preclinical	CureVac uses man-made mRNA to spur the production of proteins and protective antibodies. Like Moderna, the company got a grant from the nonprofit Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to apply its technology to coronavirus.	March 17: CureVac said it expects to have a candidate ready for animal testing by April, aiming to start a clinical study in the summer
	Imperial College London	Preclinical	Led by the immunologist Robin Shattock, Imperial College London is developing an RNA-based vaccine for the novel coronavirus. The scientists have engineered a virus-derived RNA strand that will get into cells, spur the production of the coronavirus’s signature protein, and then replicate itself. In animal studies, the vaccine has resulted in the generation of protective antibodies.	April 17: With funding from the U.K. government, Imperial plans to complete preclinical work and begin human trials in June
	University of Queensland and GlaxoSmithKline	Preclinical	Australia’s University of Queensland, with funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, has been developing a coronavirus vaccine since January. Queensland has a proprietary technology meant to make protein vaccines more effective at triggering an immune response. Called a molecular clamp, the university’s approach keeps the coronavirus’s key protein in its natural shape before grafting it onto the vaccine.	April 9: Queensland plans to begin human trials in the third quarter
	Merck	Preclinical	Merck purchased a Vienna-based company called Themis, which is developing an experimental Covid-19 vaccine based on a measles vaccine. It also partnering with the nonprofit IAVI on the development of a coronavirus vaccine related to the company's existing Ebola vaccine.	May 26: Merck says the Themis vaccine will enter human trials in a matter of weeks while the second candidate could reach the clinic by the end of the year	Read more
	Sanofi and Translate Bio	Preclinical	Sanofi partnered with Translate Bio to develop potential vaccines using synthetic messenger RNA, which would compel the body to produce antibodies against the novel coronavirus. The two companies have worked together in the past on vaccines for infectuous disease.	March 27: Sanofi and Translate Bio announce their collaboration but do not specify a development timeline

Edited September 9, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

AZ vaccine study temporarily halted. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of this and get it back on track--this is one of the vaccines expected to deliver in huge quantities quickly.  

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/health/coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccine-safety.html

 

A person familiar with the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the participant who experienced the suspected adverse reaction had been enrolled in a Phase 2/3 trial based in the United Kingdom. The individual also said that a volunteer in the U.K. trial had received a diagnosis of transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and is often sparked by viral infections. However, the timing of this diagnosis, and whether it was directly linked to AstraZeneca’s vaccine, is still unknown.

Transverse myelitis can result from a number of causes that set off the body’s inflammatory responses, including viral infections, said Dr. Gabriella Garcia, a neurologist at Yale New Haven Hospital. But, she added, the condition is often treatable with steroids.

Edited September 9, 2020 by shoshin

[ziltoid]

Thanks for the update.  Shows you the herculean effort to come up with one, and the time it will take to get there.  We'll be well into 2021 before at least one is identified - the dream of a late 2020 vaccine is stupid and Trump should drop it.  And that'll keep more liberals from becoming anti-vaxxers, too.

 

In the meantime, we better hunker down harder.  Shut down life and buy up all that TP again!

[shoshin]

10 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Thanks for the update.  Shows you the herculean effort to come up with one, and the time it will take to get there.  We'll be well into 2021 before at least one is identified - the dream of a late 2020 vaccine is stupid and Trump should drop it.  And that'll keep more liberals from becoming anti-vaxxers, too.

 

In the meantime, we better hunker down harder.  Shut down life and buy up all that TP again!

I think we will have a few identified by late 2020. Really hope AZ can get over this hurdle  

[ziltoid]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

I think we will have a few identified by late 2020. Really hope AZ can get over this hurdle  

There is a reason no one has developed a vaccine for the common coronavirus colds (it has been extremely difficult).  That vaccine would have sold like hotcakes, even before bat soup death arrived on the scene. 

 

I can see this taking a lot longer than advertised.  Also, if everyone was given a placebo, would the world notice?  The all cause mortality numbers are up this year, but they won't blip again once this virus circles the globe a few times.

[The Frankish Reich]

Excellent site - thanks for the link. I am quite confident that we'll have one or more safe and reasonably effective vaccines out there in early 2021 and that we'll finally turn the corner on this.

But I'm confused about something. A number of people around here appear to believe the following:

1. COVID-19 is (largely) a hoax, in that it presents no greater health risk than many other common maladies like the seasonal flu.

2. That opponents of the current Administration are pumping it up as a threat to boost their electoral chances.

3. That Bill Gates - probably the most vocal vaccine advocate and funder out there - and others will push out vaccines for nefarious purposes.

 

So ... are we to assume that that was all incorrect? That because the President is now trying to accelerate vaccine approval all of a sudden a COVID-19 vaccine is good? That they'd be the first in line to get it? I mean, which one is it? Part of a nefarious plot, or an example of great Presidential leadership to stamp out a disease?

[ziltoid]

19 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Excellent site - thanks for the link. I am quite confident that we'll have one or more safe and reasonably effective vaccines out there in early 2021 and that we'll finally turn the corner on this.

But I'm confused about something. A number of people around here appear to believe the following:

1. COVID-19 is (largely) a hoax, in that it presents no greater health risk than many other common maladies like the seasonal flu.

2. That opponents of the current Administration are pumping it up as a threat to boost their electoral chances.

3. That Bill Gates - probably the most vocal vaccine advocate and funder out there - and others will push out vaccines for nefarious purposes.

 

So ... are we to assume that that was all incorrect? That because the President is now trying to accelerate vaccine approval all of a sudden a COVID-19 vaccine is good? That they'd be the first in line to get it? I mean, which one is it? Part of a nefarious plot, or an example of great Presidential leadership to stamp out a disease?

Not all things in life are about Tdrumpf.

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Not all things in life are about Tdrumpf.

Not all things in life SHOULD be about him.

[Cinga]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Not all things in life SHOULD be about him.

 

Yet you're the one who brought him up?

[meazza]

36 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Excellent site - thanks for the link. I am quite confident that we'll have one or more safe and reasonably effective vaccines out there in early 2021 and that we'll finally turn the corner on this.

But I'm confused about something. A number of people around here appear to believe the following:

1. COVID-19 is (largely) a hoax, in that it presents no greater health risk than many other common maladies like the seasonal flu.

2. That opponents of the current Administration are pumping it up as a threat to boost their electoral chances.

3. That Bill Gates - probably the most vocal vaccine advocate and funder out there - and others will push out vaccines for nefarious purposes.

 

So ... are we to assume that that was all incorrect? That because the President is now trying to accelerate vaccine approval all of a sudden a COVID-19 vaccine is good? That they'd be the first in line to get it? I mean, which one is it? Part of a nefarious plot, or an example of great Presidential leadership to stamp out a disease?

Number 2 is obvious and this isn’t just in the US.  If you were the opposition, why wouldn’t you ?

[Tiberius]

45 minutes ago, Cinga said:

 

Yet you're the one who brought him up?

And you just mention him for no reason! 

 

Oh damn it, I just did too! 

 

Ugh! 

[Gary M]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

And you just mention him for no reason! 

 

Oh damn it, I just did too! 

 

Ugh! 

 

Who?

 

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

Who?

 

Ya, that's the first basemen  

[Reality Check]

There won't be a vaccine that "works" as advertised. Thanks to irrational fear from the majority, it won't matter. Good luck sheeple...

[dpberr]

In the mid-1970s, the US government was gripped with the terror of a dangerous flu outbreak that had the potential to do more damage than the 1968 outbreak that killed 100,000 Americans. 

 

The US government quickly developed an accelerated vaccine program and distributed said vaccine (which used a live virus) on a very aggressive timetable without a lot of rigorous testing.  The US vaccinated 45 million people in less than a year.  

 

In 1976, this vaccine leads to 30 deaths from adverse reaction and nearly 500 Americans acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), a paralyzing neurological disorder that offers no guarantee of full recovery.  These folks and their families have no financial recourse as the United States government gave blanket immunity to the vaccine manufacturers.  The government often settled for small amounts of money in consideration most of these people ended up with permanent nerve damage and disability.  

 

That expected flu pandemic never comes, of course.    

 

The AZ trial was halted due to that patient having transverse myelitis, and that was a good call.  TM and GBS have something in common - both attack the sensitive covering (myelin) of the nerves in the body.   

 

Now, you might be tempted to write "well you can't make an omelet without breaking a few eggs." 

 

It'd take less than 30 deaths for America to say "hell no" to the vaccine, and in the world of possibilities, that'd be a real disaster if a "safe" and effective vaccine was developed - and nobody took it out of fear of what it could do.  

 

That being said, the likelihood of an effective vaccine remains small, IMO.    The modern day flu shot is really trivalent (three types of strains) and quadrivalent (four types of strains) wack-a mole potions that "may" protect against those strains in any given year.  

[spartacus]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

I think we will have a few identified by late 2020. Really hope AZ can get over this hurdle  

if they don't fix the problem, they will likely just doctor the results- so they can proceed to production.

Congress exempted big pharma from all liability for anything that may go wrong, so no worries there.

 

problems must be huge , though, to have been caught by the super-relaxed, non-existent FDA quality procedures

Edited September 9, 2020 by spartacus

[snafu]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

AZ vaccine study temporarily halted. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of this and get it back on track--this is one of the vaccines expected to deliver in huge quantities quickly.  

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/health/coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccine-safety.html

 

A person familiar with the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that the participant who experienced the suspected adverse reaction had been enrolled in a Phase 2/3 trial based in the United Kingdom. The individual also said that a volunteer in the U.K. trial had received a diagnosis of transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and is often sparked by viral infections. However, the timing of this diagnosis, and whether it was directly linked to AstraZeneca’s vaccine, is still unknown.

Transverse myelitis can result from a number of causes that set off the body’s inflammatory responses, including viral infections, said Dr. Gabriella Garcia, a neurologist at Yale New Haven Hospital. But, she added, the condition is often treatable with steroids.

 

If this patient turns out to be affected by the vaccine in a negative way, that raises a question.  I wonder what the "normal" or "acceptable" ratio of successful doses vs. side effects would be?  There's probably about 20,000 volunteers who've been dosed with the Oxford/AZ vaccine.  Is 1/20,000 a bad enough result to scrap the whole project?

 

 

 

 

[ziltoid]

16 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

If this patient turns out to be affected by the vaccine in a negative way, that raises a question.  I wonder what the "normal" or "acceptable" ratio of successful doses vs. side effects would be?  There's probably about 20,000 volunteers who've been dosed with the Oxford/AZ vaccine.  Is 1/20,000 a bad enough result to scrap the whole project?

 

 

 

 

 

I think you're looking at it wrong.  It better be a factor of x100 or more safer compared to the virus hit rate for your age range.  I would think 1/20,000 would scrap it, except for maybe the oldest of the general population.

Edited September 9, 2020 by BeerLeagueHockey

[snafu]

3 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

 

I think you're looking at it wrong.  It better be a factor of x100 or more safer compared to the virus hit rate for your age range.  I would think 1/20,000 would scrap it, except for maybe the oldest of the general population.

 

Perhaps.

I think the range of acceptable side effects are changeable for illness to illness.  The side effect here is treatable, and would translate to 16,500 cases if everyone in the country received the vaccine (treating all recipients equal).  Would 16,500 illnesses be okay to prevent the same number (or more) of Covid deaths?

 

I honestly don't know how they look at it and what factors they relax or tighten up.

 

I also think that by the time there's a viable vaccine, we will be that much closer to herd immunity, greatly reducing the necessity for a vaccine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ziltoid]

3 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Perhaps.

I think the range of acceptable side effects are changeable for illness to illness.  The side effect here is treatable, and would translate to 16,500 cases if everyone in the country received the vaccine (treating all recipients equal).  Would 16,500 illnesses be okay to prevent the same number (or more) of Covid deaths?

 

I honestly don't know how they look at it and what factors they relax or tighten up.

 

I also think that by the time there's a viable vaccine, we will be that much closer to herd immunity, greatly reducing the necessity for a vaccine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It would be nice to know, but I don’t think people really want to know the details there (ignorance is bliss), nor does the company want the public to know the “death math” they’re doing.

 

The side effects currently seen, and also cited back in 1976 are MS like, so that is reason to stop and try to see what the heck is going sideways.  Messing with people’s innate immune response is a fine needle to thread.  I don’t think we’ll all of a sudden solve this in less than 1 year.