BLM protest happening.....

[Golden Goat]

16 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

<< I haven't watched a second of hockey, and I love the sport. >>



<< I doubt I'll even watch that much football. >>

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

 

 

8 hours ago, BillsToast said:

 

I guess you don't understand advertising costs... wait you don't understand much of anything.

 

Ratings have been down the last few years in the NFL and now a big drop in the NBA. 

 

The right puts up with the non-sense in sports until they get disgusted enough to leave. Everyone has their own threshold. Now it's here, they keep pushing. Watch what happens in 2-4 years when the unions want raises and the revenues dip, which they will. If it wasn't for TV revenue the NFL would be in trouble already.

Their entire business model is based around TV. It's like saying if it wasn't for the iPhone, Apple would be in trouble today. It's a stupid argument.

The NFL is expected to make bank when its rights are back up for renewal, and I see the NBA skyrocketing too. Your hurt feelings due to other people's right to live notwithstanding.

For the record, I have also bought and sold tens of millions of dollars in advertising as the creator of ad-supported applications. Please inform me about what else I don't know.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/nfl-tv-rights-up-for-renewal-in-2022-and-big-media-will-pay-more.html

Edited September 11, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[BillsToast]

20 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

 

Their entire business model is based around TV. It's like saying if it wasn't for the iPhone, Apple would be in trouble today. It's a stupid argument.

The NFL is expected to make bank when its rights are back up for renewal, and I see the NBA skyrocketing too. Your hurt feelings due to other people's right to live notwithstanding.

For the record, I have also bought and sold tens of millions of dollars in advertising as the creator of ad-supported applications. Please inform me about what else I don't know.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/nfl-tv-rights-up-for-renewal-in-2022-and-big-media-will-pay-more.html

 

The entire model is not around TV, it's around fans. Destroy fanhood and no one watches on TV. Squeezing every penny from viewers by the 1,000 (CRM for those that don't know) doesn't work long-term. It's more like saying if people didn't use the Iphone Apple's stock would be worth less. Only a stupid person would deny that. 

 

Call potential BS on much of what you said. There is no way you sold tens of millions of ads as the creator of an application. App creators, and I've been their media buyer, don't buy media personally. They hire people when they hit the level you proclaim you hit. So either you don't know the person you're writing to, or pretending you wore all the hats. Media buying, especially at the level of a million dollar+ app is not a part time job for an operation that big.

 

Let's go back to media on TV and since you know all this stuff:

Facebook's user base hasn't increased with real users in years yet their CRM costs are rising

The same is true with Google search, their CRMs have gone up dramatically without massive increases to their users

 

Can you explain why then if you are such an accomplished media buyer? And once you explain the answer then you'll see why TV revenue can still increase in the short term.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, BillsToast said:

 

The entire model is not around TV, it's around fans. Destroy fanhood and no one watches on TV. Squeezing every penny from viewers by the 1,000 (CRM for those that don't know) doesn't work long-term. It's more like saying if people didn't use the Iphone Apple's stock would be worth less. Only a stupid person would deny that. 

 

Call potential BS on much of what you said. There is no way you sold tens of millions of ads as the creator of an application. App creators, and I've been their media buyer, don't buy media personally. They hire people when they hit the level you proclaim you hit. So either you don't know the person you're writing to, or pretending you wore all the hats. Media buying, especially at the level of a million dollar+ app is not a part time job for an operation that big.

 

Let's go back to media on TV and since you know all this stuff:

Facebook's user base hasn't increased with real users in years yet their CRM costs are rising

The same is true with Google search, their CRMs have gone up dramatically without massive increases to their users

 

Can you explain why then if you are such an accomplished media buyer? And once you explain the answer then you'll see why TV revenue can still increase in the short term.

Well, you would be adorably wrong. I'm not sure what CRM is in the context of advertising, but CPM or Cost Per Mille and RPM (Revenue per mille) are very familiar to me as are their cost per click, cost per conversion, install or action counterparts.

How did I buy and sell tens of millions of dollars in advertising as a creator of ad supported applications? Of course not all of these were direct ad buys where I was on the phone with the CMO from Ford talking about their new pickup truck ads, though at one of the places I worked this did happen from time to time as the products I built were leveraged as PAAS and SAAS offering by some of the biggest companies int he world and we ran the entire advertising platform. Much of it was programmatic at one shop and at another I worked with a handful of networks daily, built ad mediation software, and bought ad placements for my own application as well as generated millions of dollars in ad revenue annually in the mobile space.

If you want to get in a dick swinging competition with me over this I'd suggest you reconsider. While I wouldn't exactly consider myself an SME in advertising against some of my more knowledgeable counterparts, it has been something I've done part time (yes, part time) in roles overseeing products for years.

As for facebook's user base. I can say with 100% certainty that not only has their overall user base increased (which is honestly not a very valuable metric), but their Monthly Average Users (MAU) and Daily Average Users (DAU) have skyrocketed since the pandemic.

As for why rates are increasing, it has nothing to do with total users. That's a pretty common misconception. Total users is a vanity metric. It looks impressive and a lot of people think there's a correlation between total users and conversion, but a lot of the time there isn't. What matters is conversion, and what drives conversion are personas and what drives all of it are defining correct KPIs or Key performance Indicators. Determining the magic of what makes a person click "buy" is the whole magic behind all of it, and I don't proclaim to know a secret handshake for it, but I've done it successfully (and sometimes not) for over a decade. What makes that cost go up? Value and inflation. As companies start to sharpen their personas, the likelihood of conversion goes up, and thus the price.

[BillsToast]

6 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

As for why rates are increasing, it has nothing to do with total users. That's a pretty common misconception. Total users is a vanity metric. It looks impressive and a lot of people think there's a correlation between total users and conversion, but a lot of the time there isn't. What matters is conversion, and what drives conversion are personas and what drives all of it are defining correct KPIs or Key performance Indicators. Determining the magic of what makes a person click "buy" is the whole magic behind all of it, and I don't proclaim to know a secret handshake for it, but I've done it successfully (and sometimes not) for over a decade. What makes that cost go up? Value and inflation. As companies start to sharpen their personas, the likelihood of conversion goes up, and thus the price.

 

This is the correct answer. It's about conversions, which is why I said number of users isn't the biggest metric. It will affect it long-term. Maybe I judged you wrong on media buying. 

 

That's why even with the increase of MAU and DAU during Covid on Facebook their prices have declined on a CPM basis. Conversions dropped.

 

So now that you and I both know the gig what happens if the the user base truncates? You might be able to squeeze the advertiser short term for conversions but you can't hold that up. As long as the advertiser is getting sufficient conversions he can swallow it.

 

Ratings are down 16% on the season opener. You don't think will affect negotiations if this continues? I do. It's undeniable it will happen, it's a when question.

 

16% is a huge deal when you have the SB champions play another playoff team.

[GG]

3 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

 

16% is a huge deal when you have the SB champions play another playoff team.

 

Compounded by the long anticipation for the season to begin, which would argue for much higher ratings.

[BillsToast]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

Compounded by the long anticipation for the season to begin, which would argue for much higher ratings.

 

This is my point though. People can't go out to eat as easily, they can't do as many things, and they are home. TV use and internet use is at an all-time high even with people cutting cable and the ratings drop. 

 

A 16% drop isn't a typical 16% drop. This is a big deal. Down-play it all you want, it's going to hurt the NFL massively long-term. 

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

 

This is the correct answer. It's about conversions, which is why I said number of users isn't the biggest metric. It will affect it long-term. Maybe I judged you wrong on media buying. 

 

That's why even with the increase of MAU and DAU during Covid on Facebook their prices have declined on a CPM basis. Conversions dropped.

 

So now that you and I both know the gig what happens if the the user base truncates? You might be able to squeeze the advertiser short term for conversions but you can't hold that up. As long as the advertiser is getting sufficient conversions he can swallow it.

 

Ratings are down 16% on the season opener. You don't think will affect negotiations if this continues? I do. It's undeniable it will happen, it's a when question.

 

16% is a huge deal when you have the SB champions play another playoff team.

One game is not a valid sample size. I looked into the other ratings and it turns out that there are pretty big swings too. The NBA was down 13% before COVID and before the murder of George Floyd, and since the return the ratings have been up over last year. Baseball had it's highest rated game in 9 years. This is all in an era of streaming, bothe officially and otherwise. Back to the point about personas. TV ratings capture the viewing habits of folks with Nielsen boxes. The type of person that would sign up to be part of Nielsen's group is in itself a persona. I haven't had cable in 10 years and still watch a hundred or so sporting events a year - that is also a persona. Advertisers and the NFL knows that a lot of games are being watched via unofficial streams these days. While no one gets the ratings from that, and the NFL can't really charge their advertisers for it, we still see the ads anyway and everyone knows it's there. If you want to talk about threats to the NFL's business model, how to compete against free streaming is much more of a real combatant than "If you don't stand for the special song, the magic sky cloth won't freedom".

I remember when conservatives tried to declare victory after a couple of low rated weeks years ago that turned out to be short term variance. The NFL has proven its value to advertisers over the years, and I don't see any reality where they don't increase the value of their TV deal to around double their current levels.

https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/trump-nba-ratings-kneeling-covid-1234735157/

[Buffalo_Gal]

58 minutes ago, BillsToast said:

 

This is my point though. People can't go out to eat as easily, they can't do as many things, and they are home. TV use and internet use is at an all-time high even with people cutting cable and the ratings drop. 

 

A 16% drop isn't a typical 16% drop. This is a big deal. Down-play it all you want, it's going to hurt the NFL massively long-term. 

They were just starting to get the viewers back after the kneeling debacle, too.
 

NFL viewership: (2015 was the high point)
 

2015 to 2016: down 8 percent
2016 to 2017: down 9.7 percent
2017 to 2018: up 6 percent
2018 to 2019: up 5 percent
2019 to 2020: down 16 percent (based on one game)

One game does not a season make, but considering people are basically a captive audience right now, last night's numbers were not good.  Who knows though, the ratings could rebound this weekend?


 

[thenorthremembers]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

They were just starting to get the viewers back after the kneeling debacle, too.
 

NFL viewership: (2015 was the high point)
 

2015 to 2016: down 8 percent
2016 to 2017: down 9.7 percent
2017 to 2018: up 6 percent
2018 to 2019: up 5 percent
2019 to 2020: down 16 percent (based on one game)

One game does not a season make, but considering people are basically a captive audience right now, last night's numbers were not good.  Who knows though, the ratings could rebound this weekend?


 

Your numbers would indicate nearly twenty percent of the fan base is disgusted enough by BLM and the NFLs jelly fish spine that they will refuse to watch the games when this garbage is going on.  They may get a few back but nearly 5% is willing to stay away for good.  Something for the NFL to pay attention to but given their real interest they will pull back on this stuff if the trend continues.  If anyone thinks Goodell really supports anything but his 40 million dollar paycheck they are dreaming.

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by thenorthremembers