shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 28 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: Trump needs the debate more than Biden IMO Yup. Biden is in victory formation for 3 weeks. Just needs to handle the snap on first and second down. He can only lose in a debate.
Backintheday544 Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: Trump publicly releasing his test results would be a first. He won't even release his tax returns, like he would release his test results.
BillsFanNC Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: Yup. Biden is in victory formation for 3 weeks. Just needs to handle the snap on first and second down. He can only lose in a debate. Which makes you wonder why the debate commission came to this decision unilaterally without consulting either campaign. To the bolded...I recall the same sentiment being almost universally held in regard to someone else who is currently not President exactly four years ago. Edited October 8, 2020 by BillsFanNC
WEATHER DOT COM Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: Which makes you wonder why the debate commission came to this decision unilaterally without consulting either campaign. Because we're in a pandemic and one of the debaters has Covid-19 and is not forthcoming with test results. Didn't Kennedy and Nixon debate via phone from seperate locations?
shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: Which makes you wonder why the debate commission came to this decision unilaterally without consulting either campaign. To the bolded...I recall the same sentiment being almost universally held in regard to someone else who is currently not President exactly four years ago. Big differences between those 4 years and I was commenting on what Biden’s strategy is. Way more undecideds back then. Very few now. Polls this time show chasm gaps in even swing states...last time Clinton was not in victory formation with swing states super tight and Clinton was campaigning her ass off in them right to Election Day because she knew it. I don’t care a lot about who wins but the signs this time are very different. We will know in a few weeks so poll debating is kind of a bore. Given that the commission took the Trump campaign at its word on testing last time because they refused to get there early for tests and on the heels of that, had the big outbreak that is ongoing and this time you’re exposing citizens in the town hall format (usually the best “debate” IMO), the admin put the commission in a tough spot. It’s not unlike Bills Titans actually. Edited October 8, 2020 by shoshin
Backintheday544 Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 23 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said: Which makes you wonder why the debate commission came to this decision unilaterally without consulting either campaign. To the bolded...I recall the same sentiment being almost universally held in regard to someone else who is currently not President exactly four years ago. 2016 was a totally different situation. Here's RCPs 2016 averages: Here's 2020 (from Aug but it's been the same trend): You have a much more stable polling cycle without the crazy trends we saw in 2016. We also have the 2018 polls accurately predicting a blue tsunami. We don't have a strong third party candidate that will 5 percent of the vote. As seen in 2018, Democrats don't want a repeat of 2016 where a lot of the blue vote stayed home assuming there was no way Donald Trump would win.
shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: 2016 was a totally different situation. Here's RCPs 2016 averages: Here's 2020 (from Aug but it's been the same trend): You have a much more stable polling cycle without the crazy trends we saw in 2016. We also have the 2018 polls accurately predicting a blue tsunami. We don't have a strong third party candidate that will 5 percent of the vote. As seen in 2018, Democrats don't want a repeat of 2016 where a lot of the blue vote stayed home assuming there was no way Donald Trump would win. If you do that state by state, the differences are even more striking.
BillsFanNC Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: Big differences between those 4 years and I was commenting on what Biden’s strategy is. Way more undecideds back then. Very few now. Polls this time show chasm gaps in even swing states...last time swing states were super tight and Clinton was campaigning her ass off in them right to Election Day because she knew it. I don’t care a lot about who wins but the signs this time are very different. We will know in a few weeks so poll debating is kind of a bore. . Agreed. There are virtually no undecideds this time around. This is a base election, and if was possible to fire up Trumps base any more then this transparent act by the debate commission could certainly do it. In another debate Trump could come out and purposely cough on Biden to interrupt him, or Biden could have a stroke in front of the entire country. Votes changed in either scenario: zero. 1
shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 1 minute ago, BillsFanNC said: Agreed. There are virtually no undecideds this time around. This is a base election, and if was possible to fire up Trumps base any more then this transparent act by the debate commission could certainly do it. In another debate Trump could come out and purposely cough on Biden to interrupt him, or Biden could have a stroke in front of the entire country. Votes changed in either scenario: zero. I’ll quibble on one point. 40% of the country is in the middle and is not a base. They decide the election every four years. But even this time they are decided. Give Trump credit for one thing: I expect a big turnout because a lot of people have a strong opinion.
BillsFanNC Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 Just now, shoshin said: I’ll quibble on one point. 40% of the country is in the middle and is not a base. They decide the election every four years. But even this time they are decided. Give Trump credit for one thing: I expect a big turnout because a lot of people have a strong opinion. I've been one of those 40% for a long time. Voted 3rd party the last two Presidential elections. This time I'd walk across hot coals to cast my vote for the egotistical blowhard Trump, and my instincts tell me that I'm not alone by a longshot. 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, shoshin said: I’ll quibble on one point. 40% of the country is in the middle and is not a base. They decide the election every four years. But even this time they are decided. Give Trump credit for one thing: I expect a big turnout because a lot of people have a strong opinion. Another thing against Trump. If we see 57 percent voter turnout like in 2008, it will be a landslide for Biden.
shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: Another thing against Trump. If we see 57 percent voter turnout like in 2008, it will be a landslide for Biden. Yesterday he pulled pack on ads in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pulling back ads in swing states is not the strategy of a winning campaign. The debates are about his only chance (super limited) of any reset.
Backintheday544 Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, shoshin said: Yesterday he pulled pack on ads in Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Pulling back ads in swing states is not the strategy of a winning campaign. The debates are about his only chance (super limited) of any reset. That seems more of an issue with their funds mismanagement than him conceding those states. Definately not a good thing for Trump.
The Frankish Reich Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said: That seems more of an issue with their funds mismanagement than him conceding those states. Definately not a good thing for Trump. I agree. Brad Parscale did quite a number on Trump. If Biden wins Parscale should be part of the Biden Super Bowl ring ceremony.
keepthefaith Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: That seems more of an issue with their funds mismanagement than him conceding those states. Definately not a good thing for Trump. Yes, they aren't conceding those states. The calculus is they'll win them and don't need to invest more there. 1 1 1
Backintheday544 Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: Yes, they aren't conceding those states. The calculus is they'll win them and don't need to invest more there. There is no way they think they have a big enough lead in those states while people are voting in those states that that is why they're pulling out. You can do that in a Missouri or Alabama, you don't do that in the Midwest swing states right before the election unless you have no alternative. (i.e. they're running out of cash as has been reported)
B-Man Posted October 8, 2020 Author Posted October 8, 2020 In-Person or nothing. Commission trying to "save" Uncle Joe again. Trump refuses to participate in virtual debate on Oct. 15: ‘I’m not going to waste my time’ NBC, by Christina Wilkie Original Article
shoshin Posted October 8, 2020 Posted October 8, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: Yes, they aren't conceding those states. The calculus is they'll win them and don't need to invest more there. They are pulling out of swing races to focus on what, CA and NY? When even Rasmussen shows Biden up by 9 nationally, there's a reason Trump is running out of cash. Edited October 8, 2020 by shoshin
B-Man Posted October 8, 2020 Author Posted October 8, 2020 Debate Commission Announces ‘Virtual Debate,’ Trump Says to Go Jump in a Lake
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