BillsToast Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 On 9/1/2020 at 4:35 PM, Tiberius said: Frustrating to be losing! Don’t be a sore loser! Just keep being a loser! Last I checked your side last so does that make you loser squared?
Tiberius Posted September 9, 2020 Author Posted September 9, 2020 Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC Dornsife Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12 2020 Generic Congressional Vote USC Dornsife Democrats 51, Republicans 44 Democrats +7
RochesterRob Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 47 Biden +2 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 43 Biden +6 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 53, Trump 44 Biden +9 General Election: Trump vs. Biden USC Dornsife Biden 53, Trump 41 Biden +12 2020 Generic Congressional Vote USC Dornsife Democrats 51, Republicans 44 Democrats +7 You will cry many tears into your pillow on Election Day evening. The days are long gone where honesty was strictly employed by poll takers and those who were surveyed. I know I would not tell a poll taker a single thing for fear of being victimized in some manner. 1
Tiberius Posted September 9, 2020 Author Posted September 9, 2020 1 hour ago, RochesterRob said: You will cry many tears into your pillow on Election Day evening. The days are long gone where honesty was strictly employed by poll takers and those who were surveyed. I know I would not tell a poll taker a single thing for fear of being victimized in some manner. So Trump shouldn't b e melting down the way he is over his losing in the polls? Ok
B-Man Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tiberius said: So Trump shouldn't b e melting down the way he is over his losing in the polls? Ok Same as always. The "So" Followed by a misinterpretation.
RochesterRob Posted September 9, 2020 Posted September 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tiberius said: So Trump shouldn't b e melting down the way he is over his losing in the polls? Ok Is he? I don't watch the man on a daily basis. As a matter of fact I don't spend a lot of time on here on a daily basis.
Tiberius Posted September 9, 2020 Author Posted September 9, 2020 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette* Biden 47, Trump 43 Biden +4 Florida: Trump vs. Biden St. Pete Polls Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3 1
Tiberius Posted September 10, 2020 Author Posted September 10, 2020 Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins Monmouth Biden 51, Trump 44, Jorgensen 1, Hawkins 1 Biden +7 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Rasmussen Reports Peters 48, James 40 Peters +8 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +3 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Monmouth Democrats 49, Republicans 45 Democrats +4 Wednesday, September 9 1
Tiberius Posted September 11, 2020 Author Posted September 11, 2020 Trump friendly pollster for NC, so I think Biden is going to win NC North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7 1
Tiberius Posted September 12, 2020 Author Posted September 12, 2020 By Reid J. Epstein and Sabrina Tavernise Sept. 12, 2020, 8:00 a.m. ET The key battleground of Wisconsin, which President Trump carried in 2016 by talking up trade, the economy and doubts about Hillary Clinton, is now awash in deep concern about violent crime, riots and protests — but voters aren’t favoring Mr. Trump on those issues even though he is pushing them hard, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College. Worries about law and order have become so prevalent in the state that likely voters in the Times poll said the issue was just as important as solving the coronavirus pandemic, the public health disaster that has fueled economic distress, prompted schools to operate virtually and led to more than 1,200 deaths in the state, according to a Times database of coronavirus cases. Yet so far, Mr. Trump has failed in his attempt to capitalize politically on his inflammatory remarks about the unrest in Kenosha, Wis., where last month demonstrators burned a number of buildings following the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Mr. Blake remains hospitalized after being shot seven times in the back during a confrontation captured on video and later broadcast online. Nearly one in five Wisconsinites who said that riots in American cities were a bigger problem than racism in the criminal justice system planned to vote for Mr. Biden — even though it is Mr. Trump who is vowing a severe federal crackdown on violent outbursts. ADVERTISEMENT Continue reading the main story Scott Lacko, a 55-year-old from the northern Wisconsin community of Eagle River, backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but will be voting for Mr. Biden this fall. The riots concern him deeply; he argued that Black people shot by police would have been spared had they followed instructions and said that “it’s sad to see these individuals continue to be placed on a pedestal.” But he said that Mr. Trump’s law-and-order push had not won him over. The president, Mr. Lacko said, cannot be trusted to act in anyone’s interest but his own. He reflected a majority of Wisconsin voters in seeing Mr. Biden as a unifier of the country: 52 percent said they trusted him more to bring people together, compared with 39 percent for Mr. Trump. Subscribers make this story possible. Support the journalists of The Times. “Trump certainly tries to take advantage of the situation and muddy the water,” he said. “I may not have agreed with some of the things Biden said, but at least he’s trying to bring people together and find some way through it.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/wisconsin-poll-biden-trump.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
3rdnlng Posted September 12, 2020 Posted September 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: By Reid J. Epstein and Sabrina Tavernise Sept. 12, 2020, 8:00 a.m. ET The key battleground of Wisconsin, which President Trump carried in 2016 by talking up trade, the economy and doubts about Hillary Clinton, is now awash in deep concern about violent crime, riots and protests — but voters aren’t favoring Mr. Trump on those issues even though he is pushing them hard, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College. Worries about law and order have become so prevalent in the state that likely voters in the Times poll said the issue was just as important as solving the coronavirus pandemic, the public health disaster that has fueled economic distress, prompted schools to operate virtually and led to more than 1,200 deaths in the state, according to a Times database of coronavirus cases. Yet so far, Mr. Trump has failed in his attempt to capitalize politically on his inflammatory remarks about the unrest in Kenosha, Wis., where last month demonstrators burned a number of buildings following the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Mr. Blake remains hospitalized after being shot seven times in the back during a confrontation captured on video and later broadcast online. Nearly one in five Wisconsinites who said that riots in American cities were a bigger problem than racism in the criminal justice system planned to vote for Mr. Biden — even though it is Mr. Trump who is vowing a severe federal crackdown on violent outbursts. ADVERTISEMENT Continue reading the main story Scott Lacko, a 55-year-old from the northern Wisconsin community of Eagle River, backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but will be voting for Mr. Biden this fall. The riots concern him deeply; he argued that Black people shot by police would have been spared had they followed instructions and said that “it’s sad to see these individuals continue to be placed on a pedestal.” But he said that Mr. Trump’s law-and-order push had not won him over. The president, Mr. Lacko said, cannot be trusted to act in anyone’s interest but his own. He reflected a majority of Wisconsin voters in seeing Mr. Biden as a unifier of the country: 52 percent said they trusted him more to bring people together, compared with 39 percent for Mr. Trump. Subscribers make this story possible. Support the journalists of The Times. “Trump certainly tries to take advantage of the situation and muddy the water,” he said. “I may not have agreed with some of the things Biden said, but at least he’s trying to bring people together and find some way through it.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/wisconsin-poll-biden-trump.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage Nearly one in five Wisconsinites who are more concerned about riots than racial justice are going to vote for Biden. That leaves 80% who will vote for someone else. I'm convinced. That's a real winning strategy going on there for Biden.
ComradeKayAdams Posted September 12, 2020 Posted September 12, 2020 Thanks for the poll updates, Tiberius! It looks like Trump is starting to lose control of Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump now needs to hold all of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio at a minimum. These are places where Biden’s lead still likely falls within the polling statistical margin of error. But then Trump must additionally somehow figure out Pennsylvania. Biden’s campaign team knows this, I bet, which explains why we’ve heard a lot of pro-fracking rhetoric from Joe lately. They’re trying to erode some of Trump’s support in Pennsyltucky. On 9/7/2020 at 6:24 PM, BullBuchanan said: 3. A right wing neo-liberal and a neo-liberal cop are socialists? I wish Biden and the Democrats was 1/10th as cool as you make him seem. As someone int he socialist spectrum, Democrats are basically 1980's era Republicans. Well said, BullBuchanan! This right here is the most important observation one can make of modern American politics. I would even feel reasonably comfortable pushing the time period forward by one or two decades: “Democrats are basically 1990’s-2000’s era Republicans.” Trump Derangement Syndrome and PC politics are convenient distractions from the realities of the same neoliberal corporate establishment owning both parties. And yes, the neoliberals (using the broader 1980’s Chilean definition) AND the Deep State have sufficient control over Trump too! While it’s obviously not quite the perfectly copacetic arrangement that it would be with Biden/Harris, enough puppet strings are attached. Some foreign policy examples: Guaido support, expansion of Obama’s drone strike program, Yemeni Civil War intervention on behalf of Saudi Arabia, saber-rattling toward Iran, rollercoaster ride of actual troop numbers in Afghanistan between Obama’s final months and now, lots of troops still in Iraq and Syria, 2020 Patriot Act extension, pardoning hardball with whistleblower patriots like Snowden and Assange, support of annual MIC budget expansions, etc… No need for me to cover all the domestic economic examples. The vast majority of libertarian voters will still very enthusiastically vote for Trump this November. Need I say more? Nope. No need. On 9/7/2020 at 6:12 PM, Taro T said: To your 1st question. Don't know the how (and went waaaaay too far off course into conspiracy theory last time talking with another poster about polling so won't even attempt to figure out the how) but the why would be to keep their narrative alive that Republicans will vote in person & Democrats will vote by mail. If the polls support Biden being up or in a dead heat then having tons of Biden votes being found in the weeks after the election switching a huge 45 win into a narrow Biden win becomes plausible if not credible. Really don't see how undecides break for Biden if we're still seeing nightly riots 2 months from now, so am expecting at this point a bigger win for 45 than in '16. So, seeing an election night victory for 45 seems right at present, but if the polls say he shouldn't win big, would not be surprised at D's manufacturing votes in states like NV (to try to get Biden an EC win) & in CA (to get him a commanding popular vote lead to help their narrative). The D's are already trying to set that expectation. Having tight polls or Biden leads are critical to pull it off. (That should be far enough into conpiracy tin-foil hat land for now.) But there are nearly 2 months to go, so we shall see. Taro T, don’t take my November 3 Biden victory prediction too much to heart! That was mostly just a reflection of the current status of the EC layout, as I see it, and not so much a look into the future. I always hate making early election predictions because of all the variables we can’t realistically foresee. I predicted Bernie winning the 2020 Dem primaries right before Obama’s suspected Super Tuesday behind-the-scenes machinations. I predicted Trump winning the 2020 presidency in March before Covid-19 took over. We still have over 7 weeks left for surprises, and I do not look favorably upon either Biden’s voter enthusiasm polling numbers or his economic trust polling numbers. I believe the polls are telling the truth that a majority of Americans are unhappy with Trump and with the current state of affairs and do prefer “generic other guys.” The question is whether or not this dissatisfaction will translate into actual votes when the “generic other guys” come into cognitive focus and are realized to be Biden and Harris? I dunno. No idea. I expect Covid-19 and the economy to weigh more heavily in the election than the riots because of all the evidence backing the theory that people’s votes are usually based more on how they may be personally affected, rather than on how the world at large may be affected. This characterization is even more accurate for independent voters, i.e. the ones who may comprise the remaining undecideds at this late date. I wish this were not the case, given my intense passion for environmental issues and foreign policy issues, but such is reality. While the riots are clearly awful, morally reprehensible, and devastating to the people and businesses that reside in these specific urban areas, they only directly affect a tiny percentage of Americans. That said…perception is reality. If the economy and Covid-19 somehow stabilize and/or people FEEL it has stabilized, then the riots covered daily in the news WILL take center stage and I’d agree with you then that voters will tend to lean toward the perceived law-and-order president that is Donald Trump (Biden and Harris would be, too, but ugh…another topic for another day…). I can also concede that much of the left-wing anti-police rhetoric is despicable and that most Americans (urban, suburban, rural…middle class, working class, poor) are directly affected by police force funding. The narrative of Republicans voting in-person and Democrats voting by mail has plenty of truth behind it. Democrats fear Covid-19 at much higher percentages than Republicans do, which perfectly explains why Dem voters are commonly polled to be about twice as likely to opt for the mail-in ballot route. I believe absentee ballots are more popular as well among Democrat voters than Republican voters, mostly due to college students and in spite of all the military abroad ballots. So given the expected closeness of the presidential race that we typically see these days, the most likely outcome is Trump having a lead the night of November 3, but then Biden making some form of comeback days later after all the mail-in ballots and absentee ballots are fully counted. There would be nothing conspiratorial or nefarious about such a development. It would match the most probable future reality. Now as for ballot harvesting integrity concerns raised over Democrats…well this presents an inconvenient can’t-win situation for the political left, no? If Trump wins, then it must prove that polls are fake. But if Trump loses, then it must be because of secret manufacturing of mail-in votes. At some point in the months ahead, everyone will have to accept whatever results and peacefully move on, for the sake of the country. And WHAT IN THE WORLD would make anyone believe that the GOP themselves are filled with such morally upstanding people who are consistently above the fray of election integrity transgressions?! These are the same people who have perfected the art of minority/poor/college student voter suppression and who actively undermine third party voices! Bear in mind that I am merely pointing out hypocrisies and NOT exonerating the Democratic establishment in any way whatsoever. Hopefully we already have in place some sort of mutually agreed upon electoral oversight infrastructure. Not only was I witness to the years of Russiagating just like everyone else, but I was also a 2016+2020 Bernie campaign volunteer! I know what these horrible people are capable of doing. I could share so many thoughts and stories using a thousand more words (I still haven’t gotten over the large Dem primary exit poll discrepancies throughout numerous states), but I see that I’m already 9 paragraphs deep, so here’s a slightly amusing picture instead: 2
Tiberius Posted September 14, 2020 Author Posted September 14, 2020 1 minute ago, B-Man said: Sure Ouch!!! Arizona: Trump vs. Biden OH Predictive Insights Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
Tiberius Posted September 15, 2020 Author Posted September 15, 2020 BOCA RATON, Fla. (Sept. 15, 2020) – After falling behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden in May, U.S. President Donald Trump has surged back into a virtual dead heat in the battleground Sunshine State, according to a statewide survey of registered Florida voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI). Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided, but those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate. Trump led Biden in FAU’s March poll, 51 percent to 49 percent, but Biden gained a 53 percent to 47 percent advantage in May. Roughly 9 percent of Florida voters surveyed said there is a chance they will change their minds, while 97 percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Biden voters insist they will stick with their choices. Among Trump voters, 72 percent said they are extremely excited for the election, while 60 percent of Biden supporters expressed the same sentiment. Many analysts believe Trump must win Florida to regain the White House in November. “Florida continues to be too close to call, but the enthusiasm still favors President Trump, and that could be the difference,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., a professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative. “With only 5 percent of the voters undecided, this election is less about persuasion and more about turnout.” https://business.fau.edu/news/economics/bepi/2020-09-15-trump-gains-on-biden-in-florida.php
Tiberius Posted September 15, 2020 Author Posted September 15, 2020 Poll Results Spread Florida: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Florida: Trump vs. Biden Florida Atlantic University Biden 50, Trump 50 Tie North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNN* Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNN* Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10
Brueggs Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 On 9/1/2020 at 9:09 AM, thenorthremembers said: You'd think after 2016 Dems would stop looking at polls. On 9/1/2016 polls had Clinton at 302 electoral votes, she ended with 227. She was also twice the candidate Biden is. You would think, but your basing your hypothesis on people that actually learn from their mistakes...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted September 15, 2020 Posted September 15, 2020 On 9/14/2020 at 11:52 AM, B-Man said: ..unconfirmed rumors say that out of the 6 mail-in votes received so far....Smokin' Joe leads 4 to 2.......thus CNN projects him the winner......
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