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Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

Tiberius

By Tiberius
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

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Doc Brown Hall of Famer

Doc Brown

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it’s not a little backwards looking with 2016 in mind. I mean Georgia and Arizona are now in play, and if Florida is won by Biden by like .05 of a percent, it throws the whole formula out the window. I do agree that Trump could pull off an EC win again while losing popular vote, though 

It's likely if Trump wins he'll lose the popular vote.

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spartacus
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Trump holds Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. Trump takes  AZ, NC, Wisconsin and Michigan and Florida.  VA is toss up PA will be contested by late vote count, but PA will be irrelevant by

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What a call by this guy two days ago    

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Warcodered

Found where it came from.  

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SectionC3

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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

 

Hoax.

Joe Miner Veteran

Joe Miner

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Who the hell are the 35%?

 

EhPXwhHXgAEaPQR?format=jpg&name=small


 

They forgot the decimal.   It should have been 3.5. The polls are regressing to the mean.

 

The science was done here long ago.

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ComradeKayAdams RFA

ComradeKayAdams

Posted
Posted (edited)

Polls! Yes I love this topic. My many frenetic thoughts after briefly scanning the pages of this thread:

 

1. Question for conspiracy theorists: Okay, so all the polls are biased to make Biden look good and Trump look bad. Why, exactly? To make Trump voters feel despondent, thereby suppressing their vote…that’s the argument being presented. But couldn’t that logic work in the reverse direction, too? Biden voters see a big lead, get complacent, and don’t bother putting in the effort to vote since they assume their vote isn’t needed? Meanwhile, Trump voters see an election emergency and do all they can to show up and close the voting lead gap? Does anyone have voter data that can corroborate the psychology behind any of these game theory strategies???

 

2. Polling accuracy concerns: It’s possible that some of the polls are continuing to undersample voters without a college education, similarly to what happened Midwest statewide in 2016. There’s also the issue of Trump voters lying to pollsters partly out of spite, partly out of fear of retribution or embarrassment for holding political views that the left has demonized (racists, fascists, misogynists, xenophobes, and so on). And then you have the ever-so-mercurial “independent voter.” Oh yeah…and how can I forget all the vague candidate favorability polls that are not coupled with more relevant voter enthusiasm questions? Ok, so all of this uncertainty can be isolated and factored out using historical polling data as precedent. But THE BIGGEST and entirely new issue is going to be the inevitable election integrity failures due to Covid-19 mail-in ballot shenanigans. Those poor polling statisticians will have no choice but to lower their confidence level percentages, raise the error margins, and endure months of public rebuke.

 

3. Pollster reputations: NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, CBS News, and Fox News comprise the gold standard for me. Emerson and Monmouth are excellent too. Fox News polls I find to be the most “fair and balanced” of them all, ironically. I’d place Morning Consult, NPR/PBS, CNBC, The Hill, and YouGov in the “meh” pile. Rasmussen polls seem consistently unreliable and only there to boost GOP self-esteem, going back at least to the 2012 Romney blunder if not earlier. Dunno about the other ones at RealClearPolitics. For the skeptics and haters: remember that it’s routine practice to greatly undersample independents (whose votes mostly cancel each other out for the two main parties) and to sample in ways that won’t perfectly match voter registration. Why? Well remember that pollsters are (allegedly) in the business of getting good results that match actual outcomes on election day, NOT in getting the most “fair” registration-based representation. Or to put it another way, likely voters are more important than registered voters.

 

4. Swing state debate: Everyone here (I hope) knows that it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that decides a presidential election, so that means we should be focusing on the far more important individual swing state polls…even though the national polls still do matter up to specific thresholds. Biden has a comfortable national lead, but the swing states are tightening! I recommend paying close attention to the usual 6 battleground suspects, in this order of importance: Florida, the Midwest cluster (Michigan and then Pennsylvania and then Wisconsin), North Carolina, and Arizona. Ohio, Minnesota, and Nevada are also important demographic bellwether states for me. So that’s 217 EC votes for the Dems, 186 for the Reps, and 135 in 9 swing states. Everyone has their own list of swing states, but those are mine (I have Biden winning 279 to 259 at the moment...taking MN, WI, MI, PA, NV and Trump taking FL, NC, AZ, OH…flipping either MI or PA wins it for Trump, so things are crazy close!). Florida is a political “choke point” for Trump. I know of no viable path for him if he doesn’t win it. I’d also be shocked if Texas and Georgia are seriously in play. If they are, then the GOP has much bigger concerns than the 2020 election. Random trivia: did you know the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988? That occurred during a GOP incumbency election (2004) against an uninspiring Dem candidate (John Kerry) at a time of national crisis (War on Terror/Iraq War). Hmmm…

 

5. Legislative branch loneliness: Hey, let’s also not forget to track all the extremely important Senate races in this thread! There are 35 seats up this year, 11 of which I’d say are in realistic play for both sides (AL, AZ, CO, GA x 2, IA, KS, ME, MI, MT, NC). That gives the Dems a narrow 45-44 lead to briefly enjoy, when counting Angus King and Bernie with the Dems. I have the Reps holding the 117th Senate at 51-49 for now, but of course these races are WAY too close to be making any serious predictions in early September. There are also quite a few individual House battles that I find interesting, even though the Dems will hold the House for sure. The most interesting one to me that I recommend we follow: Queen Nancy versus progressive challenger, Shahid Buttar. The Pelosi name brand has proven to be quite toxic recently (see: Joe Kennedy endorsement), so I suppose anything can happen now? Such an upset would dramatically alter the trajectory of the Democratic Party and the country…for very much the better IMO.

 

6. Specialty poll medley: let’s also monitor any and all polls for candidate enthusiasm, chronologically comparative polling data between Biden and 2016 Hillary, polls for black males (differentiated by age, ideally), polls for Latinos (differentiated by geography, ideally), polls for the “yutes” (My Cousin Vinny reference), and polls for Boomers of every stripe! I believe Biden could be in trouble with the first five, but Trump may be in trouble with the last one (especially the female suburban ones). Any Boomer data is super important to me. If you give me good Boomer data, then I will tell you who wins the November election with great confidence! Maybe. I think.

 

7. Special emphasis on October polls: September polls matter a bit more now than in previous elections because of all the early voting, but they still don’t matter too much. Nothing matters much until “Basement” Biden passes the first debate test on September 29. Afterward, the fate of the economy plus any potential second-wave spread of Covid-19 through schools will determine…well…EVERYTHING (insert Gary Oldman gif here…The Professional reference…yes, I like old movies).

 

EDIT: I whittled down the competitive Senate seats from 18 to 11.

Edited by RealKayAdams
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Tiberius Hall of Famer

Tiberius

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The presidential horse race remains unchanged by recent protests — Joe Biden still leads President Trump by the same margins nationally and in the battleground state of Wisconsin. 

Here's why: though neither candidate gets rave reviews for what they've said about the demonstrations, Biden is seen by more as trying to calm the situation, while the president is perceived by slightly more as encouraging fighting, rather than calming things down. And the larger notion that violence could come to "the suburbs" finds little concern among those who actually reside in the suburbs.

image001-15.jpg  

Moreover, it's also about the approach to those protests: by more than two to one, voters feel the way to end the them is to make police reforms and address discrimination, not to use law enforcement to punish protesters. Even the president's own backers aren't overly convinced the latter approach is better. 

image002-12.jpg  

Voters see the protests composed of a mix of well-intentioned demonstrators and people out for more destructive aims, but they appear to distinguish between the two: between the peaceful protesters — with whom, people say they can identify — and those destroying property, with whom they can't. And eight in 10 people in suburbs feel it's unlikely that violent protests would happen where they live.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-wisconsin-opinion-poll-protests/

Tiberius Hall of Famer

Tiberius

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I recall Gabriel Sherman’s report two months ago when he wrote: “A Republican strategist close to Mitch McConnell told me that Republicans have Labor Day penciled in as the deadline for Trump to have turned things around. After that, he’s on his own.” It’s Labor Day, and he hasn’t turned it around. Your call, Republican incumbents.

Taro T Veteran

Taro T

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

Polls! Yes I love this topic. My many frenetic thoughts after briefly scanning the pages of this thread:

 

1. Question for conspiracy theorists: Okay, so all the polls are biased to make Biden look good and Trump look bad. Why, exactly? To make Trump voters feel despondent, thereby suppressing their vote…that’s the argument being presented. But couldn’t that logic work in the reverse direction, too? Biden voters see a big lead, get complacent, and don’t bother putting in the effort to vote since they assume their vote isn’t needed? Meanwhile, Trump voters see an election emergency and do all they can to show up and close the voting lead gap? Does anyone have voter data that can corroborate the psychology behind any of these game theory strategies???

 

2. Polling accuracy concerns: It’s possible that some of the polls are continuing to undersample voters without a college education, similarly to what happened Midwest statewide in 2016. There’s also the issue of Trump voters lying to pollsters partly out of spite, partly out of fear of retribution or embarrassment for holding political views that the left has demonized (racists, fascists, misogynists, xenophobes, and so on). And then you have the ever-so-mercurial “independent voter.” Oh yeah…and how can I forget all the vague candidate favorability polls that are not coupled with more relevant voter enthusiasm questions? Ok, so all of this uncertainty can be isolated and factored out using historical polling data as precedent. But THE BIGGEST and entirely new issue is going to be the inevitable election integrity failures due to Covid-19 mail-in ballot shenanigans. Those poor polling statisticians will have no choice but to lower their confidence level percentages, raise the error margins, and endure months of public rebuke.

 

3. Pollster reputations: NBC/WSJ, ABC/WP, CBS News, and Fox News comprise the gold standard for me. Emerson and Monmouth are excellent too. Fox News polls I find to be the most “fair and balanced” of them all, ironically. I’d place Morning Consult, NPR/PBS, CNBC, The Hill, and YouGov in the “meh” pile. Rasmussen polls seem consistently unreliable and only there to boost GOP self-esteem, going back at least to the 2012 Romney blunder if not earlier. Dunno about the other ones at RealClearPolitics. For the skeptics and haters: remember that it’s routine practice to greatly undersample independents (whose votes mostly cancel each other out for the two main parties) and to sample in ways that won’t perfectly match voter registration. Why? Well remember that pollsters are (allegedly) in the business of getting good results that match actual outcomes on election day, NOT in getting the most “fair” registration-based representation. Or to put it another way, likely voters are more important than registered voters.

 

4. Swing state debate: Everyone here (I hope) knows that it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that decides a presidential election, so that means we should be focusing on the far more important individual swing state polls…even though the national polls still do matter up to specific thresholds. Biden has a comfortable national lead, but the swing states are tightening! I recommend paying close attention to the usual 6 battleground suspects, in this order of importance: Florida, the Midwest cluster (Michigan and then Pennsylvania and then Wisconsin), North Carolina, and Arizona. Ohio, Minnesota, and Nevada are also important demographic bellwether states for me. So that’s 217 EC votes for the Dems, 186 for the Reps, and 135 in 9 swing states. Everyone has their own list of swing states, but those are mine (I have Biden winning 279 to 259 at the moment...taking MN, WI, MI, PA, NV and Trump taking FL, NC, AZ, OH…flipping either MI or PA wins it for Trump, so things are crazy close!). Florida is a political “choke point” for Trump. I know of no viable path for him if he doesn’t win it. I’d also be shocked if Texas and Georgia are seriously in play. If they are, then the GOP has much bigger concerns than the 2020 election. Random trivia: did you know the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988? That occurred during a GOP incumbency election (2004) against an uninspiring Dem candidate (John Kerry) at a time of national crisis (War on Terror/Iraq War). Hmmm…

 

5. Legislative branch loneliness: Hey, let’s also not forget to track all the extremely important Senate races in this thread! There are 35 seats up this year, 11 of which I’d say are in realistic play for both sides (AL, AZ, CO, GA x 2, IA, KS, ME, MI, MT, NC). That gives the Dems a narrow 45-44 lead to briefly enjoy, when counting Angus King and Bernie with the Dems. I have the Reps holding the 117th Senate at 51-49 for now, but of course these races are WAY too close to be making any serious predictions in early September. There are also quite a few individual House battles that I find interesting, even though the Dems will hold the House for sure. The most interesting one to me that I recommend we follow: Queen Nancy versus progressive challenger, Shahid Buttar. The Pelosi name brand has proven to be quite toxic recently (see: Joe Kennedy endorsement), so I suppose anything can happen now? Such an upset would dramatically alter the trajectory of the Democratic Party and the country…for very much the better IMO.

 

6. Specialty poll medley: let’s also monitor any and all polls for candidate enthusiasm, chronologically comparative polling data between Biden and 2016 Hillary, polls for black males (differentiated by age, ideally), polls for Latinos (differentiated by geography, ideally), polls for the “yutes” (My Cousin Vinny reference), and polls for Boomers of every stripe! I believe Biden could be in trouble with the first five, but Trump may be in trouble with the last one (especially the female suburban ones). Any Boomer data is super important to me. If you give me good Boomer data, then I will tell you who wins the November election with great confidence! Maybe. I think.

 

7. Special emphasis on October polls: September polls matter a bit more now than in previous elections because of all the early voting, but they still don’t matter too much. Nothing matters much until “Basement” Biden passes the first debate test on September 29. Afterward, the fate of the economy plus any potential second-wave spread of Covid-19 through schools will determine…well…EVERYTHING (insert Gary Oldman gif here…The Professional reference…yes, I like old movies).

 

EDIT: I whittled down the competitive Senate seats from 18 to 11.

 

To your 1st question.  Don't know the how (and went waaaaay too far off course into conspiracy theory last time talking with another poster about polling so won't even attempt to figure out the how) but the why would be to keep their narrative alive that Republicans will vote in person & Democrats will vote by mail.  If the polls support Biden being up or in a dead heat then having tons of Biden votes being found in the weeks after the election switching a huge 45 win into a narrow Biden win becomes plausible if not credible.

 

Really don't see how undecides break for Biden if we're still seeing nightly riots 2 months from now, so am expecting at this point a bigger win for 45 than in '16.  So, seeing an election night victory for 45 seems right at present, but if the polls say he shouldn't win big, would not be surprised at D's manufacturing votes in states like NV (to try to get Biden an EC win) & in CA (to get him a commanding popular vote lead to help their narrative).  The D's are already trying to set that expectation.  Having tight polls or Biden leads are critical to pull it off.  (That should be far enough into conpiracy tin-foil hat land for now.)

 

But there are nearly 2 months to go, so we shall see.

BullBuchanan Veteran

BullBuchanan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/3/2020 at 12:40 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

As someone that's not a democrat, here's my take:

1. I wish COVID was as bad as ebola. It would have saved 180,000+ American lives
2. I want us all locked down too. This would have been over 6 months ago if we had. The people to blame for the economic crisis are the deniers and the federal government.
3. A right wing neo-liberal and a neo-liberal cop are socialists? I wish Biden and the Democrats was 1/10th as cool as you make him seem. As someone int he socialist spectrum, Democrats are basically 1980's era Republicans.
4. I don't really care one way or another.

5. Yawn. Don't care.

Edited by BullBuchanan
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