Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[BuffaloHokie13]

20 hours ago, B-Man said:

NO polls in the last SEVEN days ?

 

Yeah, thats not a giveaway.

Turns out the polls were done by mail, so it's Trump's fault for killing the post office. Probably. 

[Big Blitz]

Buried in paragraph 11....

 

 

New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Will Kenosha backlash swing suburbanites to Trump? What the data says (so far)

 

In other words, Biden’s suburban numbers are now nearly as bad as Trump’s, which did not change between July and August (42 percent favorable to 55 percent unfavorable). 

 

What did change, however, were the head-to-head numbers between the two candidates. In late July, Biden led Trump by a decent margin in the suburbs: 48 percent to 41 percent. In late August, the same suburban Americans told Yahoo News and YouGov that they preferred Trump over Biden, 45 percent to 43 percent. That’s a 9-point swing. 

 

Likewise, in July, 39 percent of these suburbanites predicted that Biden would win the election, compared with just 34 percent for Trump. In August they reversed course, with 46 percent picking Trump as the likely winner and only 41 percent choosing Biden.

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-will-kenosha-backlash-swing-suburbanites-to-trump-what-the-data-says-so-far-154424284.html

 

Lol Yahoo.  Lol

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

In what way is it harder to push out fake numbers than real numbers? 

I feel like I could manufacture a fake poll of, say, 1,000 individuals in literally one day. I'd just take the data from an old poll and tweak it a little bit to fit my "narrative" if I wanted to show, say, Biden leading by 11 points. Or 15. It's nothing. Doing real polling takes time. 

In other words, this is an utterly asinine comment by someone calling him/herself "The Last Refuge."

 

They aren't "faking" the numbers in so much as they are (presumably) actually getting these results.  But, pretty sure they are tailoring the Q's in a way, and also tailoring their samples, to still end up with only slightly more people than 50% to say they'd choose Biden.  Which is effectively faking the #'s.

 

Prior to the conventions, they just needed to oversample D's to get there.  Now, it appears, they have to oversample D's and also ask very tailored questions that they'll still get D's to say 'yes, they'll vote for a senile man that they know won't last 4 years' without getting R's to tell them to go #### themselves.  Because a poll showing Biden up by 50 points + would not be believable to anyone but Biden & Clinton.  Watching clips of both candidates, have to believe that is a very fine line to walk.  And they have to keep Biden close in the polls to have any chance of people believing their "no, no, no, it only LOOKS like 45 won because every single Democrat in the country voted by mail because it was too scary to enter the voting booth" gambit to have any plausibility at all.

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

They aren't "faking" the numbers in so much as they are (presumably) actually getting these results.  But, pretty sure they are tailoring the Q's in a way, and also tailoring their samples, to still end up with only slightly more people than 50% to say they'd choose Biden.  Which is effectively faking the #'s.

 

Prior to the conventions, they just needed to oversample D's to get there.  Now, it appears, they have to oversample D's and also ask very tailored questions that they'll still get D's to say 'yes, they'll vote for a senile man that they know won't last 4 years' without getting R's to tell them to go #### themselves.  Because a poll showing Biden up by 50 points + would not be believable to anyone but Biden & Clinton.  Watching clips of both candidates, have to believe that is a very fine line to walk.  And they have to keep Biden close in the polls to have any chance of people believing their "no, no, no, it only LOOKS like 45 won because every single Democrat in the country voted by mail because it was too scary to enter the voting booth" gambit to have any plausibility at all.

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

Edited September 2, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

 

Funny, pretty sure the bolded can be said about you.

 

But if you don't realize that polling questions can be, and are, tailored to get a preferred result very often, Biden has a bridge to sell you.

[The Frankish Reich]

38 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Funny, pretty sure the bolded can be said about you.

 

But if you don't realize that polling questions can be, and are, tailored to get a preferred result very often, Biden has a bridge to sell you.

That is what's called "push polling," and the outfits that do that are pretty quickly eliminated from any reputable mix (RCP, 538). The kind of, "If you learned that Joe Biden wants to defund the police/ban fracking/raise your taxes by 50%, would it make it more or less likely for you to vote for him?"

[keepthefaith]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

So ... they are "tailoring" the question "Who do you plan to voter for in the 2020 Presidential Election" to favor Biden. Got it. I understand that before the DNC they were asking, "Who do you plan to vote for, the Vigorous and Mentally Sharp Joseph R. Biden, or the Obese and Offensive Clinging-to-the-Ramp-For-Dear-Life Donald J. Trump?

EDIT: and doesn't that yahoo/yougov poll referenced just above cause you to question the entire concept of this thread, that pollsters are manipulating data to give Biden a push? Conspiracy theorists everywhere. There is literally no evidence that could cause you to abandon these nutcase beliefs.

 

Agree, dumb thread.  National polls mean nothing because we don't elect Presidents with popular vote.  Especially this year, the campaigns have barely started at this point and 2020 has been filled with events that swing some voters in one direction or the other almost from week to week.  The campaigns have a long way to go in terms of exposure.  We also know from 2016 that Trump under polls by several points. 

 

We should probably expect a very close and unfortunately contested result due to all the early/absentee/mail in voting. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by keepthefaith

[fansince88]

Got my 1 and only poll call the other day. When asked if I was registered Republican or Democrat I told them Republican. Then a bit later they asked if I ever voted Democrat in an election I told them other then one local state assemblyman a few years back I wouldnt vote for any of the Democratic scum that was running they hung up on me. I had so much more to tell them...?

[The Frankish Reich]

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

Fox News is still Legacy Media. 

[The Frankish Reich]

19 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Fox News is still Legacy Media. 

What is that supposed to mean? Legacy what? It is not NBC/ABC/CBS or even Dumont. It features -- in the prime evening slot -- Trump lapdog Hannity every night. And they're part of some kind of weird polling conspiracy aimed at suppressing the Trump vote?

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

What is that supposed to mean? Legacy what? It is not NBC/ABC/CBS or even Dumont. It features -- in the prime evening slot -- Trump lapdog Hannity every night. And they're part of some kind of weird polling conspiracy aimed at suppressing the Trump vote?

 

Fox News is not "Pro-Trump", in fact they're populated by Never Trumper GOPers/neocons. Especially when it comes to its board. They have opinion hosts who are pro-Trump, but their news is decidedly pro-establishment. The mistake you're making (imo) is still thinking in partisan terms. This isn't about democrat v republican, nor conservative v liberal. This is outsider(s) v the establishment. And that establishment is most certainly bi-partisan in composition -- especially when it comes to its media control mechanisms.

 

This has never really been about Trump. This is much, much bigger.

 

Added: I missed your earlier statements/posts/questions about the purpose of "fake" polling, or how its accomplished. Polls are only as good as their samples, and almost every poll showing Biden up 9-10+ points over-samples registered or likely democratic voters by close to 20 points. That guarantees a skewed perspective, as do "national polls" which have no bearing on the electoral college projections but can be useful in painting a false picture of the electoral outcomes (see 2016 as an example of this). Then you have the other added factor that polls depend upon people answering honestly. Over the past 4 years it's become dangerous to voice your honest political opinions unless your of a certain political persuasion (which ain't Trump or conservative), thus you have a sea of people who won't answer honestly out of either fear or contempt. 

Edited September 3, 2020 by Deranged Rhino

[Doc Brown]

Remember people.  The national polls were spot on in 2016.  The interpretation of the polls were horrible.  If you're Biden the most important number is winning by at least 5 points nationally so he can't afford to lose three points from where he's at now.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Et tu, Fox News?

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-tops-trump-among-likely-voters-in-key-states

The fix is really in now.

 

Lol what?

 

 

According to the internals of their NC poll the sample was 46% D 45% R and 9% "independent."

They recognize unaffiliated not independent in NC.

 

Since when has that been the breakdown anywhere?  They interviewed less of the unaffiliated to get result they wanted.  In case you say "so what?"

 

From their board of elections site:

 

Democratic: 2,546,802
Republican: 2,128,132
Green: 2,764
Constitution: 3,884
Libertarian: 42,064
Unaffiliated: 2,363,704

[Big Blitz]

But wait!  There is more. 

 

Arizona.  The breakdown in their internals in this fake poll is 46% D 43% R and 11% I.

 

From the AZ board of elections:

 

Voter Registration Statistics - August 2020*

PARTY NAME	REGISTERED VOTERS	PERCENT
Republican	1,389,960	34.84%
Democratic	1,293,074	32.41%
Other	1,273,215	31.92%
Libertarian	32,965	0.83%

[Tiberius]

Polls looking good for Biden. North Carolina! Yes 

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Polls looking good for Biden. North Carolina! Yes 

Just wait until kids go back to school in the rust belt and things get out of control.  See what the suburbs say then.  That, I submit, is when we’ll see Biden start to put this thing away. 

[Deranged Rhino]

Rooting for more death and sickness just to get his chosen political outcome. 

 

Classy as always. 

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

Just wait until kids go back to school in the rust belt and things get out of control.  See what the suburbs say then.  That, I submit, is when we’ll see Biden start to put this thing away. 

 

How can anyone not conclude the Democrats want to keep us shutdown and want cases to rise or deaths to increase when you read something like this?

 

Things we now know what a vote for Democrat means:

 

1. They openly are cheering on the spread of the flu they made look like Ebola.  

 

2. They want you locked down and are fine with all the detrimental societal implications and economic pain it causes you.

 

3. Have fully embraced Socialism

 

4. Support and Condone rioting and looting because they think it helps them because they also support #5

 

5. Radical cultural elements that want to rewrite our history, give it a new founding year (1619), tear down statues of the men that built, authored, and wrote and secured the very (at the time bc I actually understand history) radical ideas about freedoms and liberty and put in place the mechanisms that will secure and expand liberty for generations to come.

  

 

 

Enemies of America.  

[Tiberius]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Remember people.  The national polls were spot on in 2016.  The interpretation of the polls were horrible.  If you're Biden the most important number is winning by at least 5 points nationally so he can't afford to lose three points from where he's at now.

 

 

This is really interesting, but I just wonder if it’s not a little backwards looking with 2016 in mind. I mean Georgia and Arizona are now in play, and if Florida is won by Biden by like .05 of a percent, it throws the whole formula out the window. I do agree that Trump could pull off an EC win again while losing popular vote, though